Tom Brady’s Next Chapter: Tampa Bay
By: Wayne
Tom Brady announced Tuesday morning that his 20-year career in New England had come to an end. The former Michigan quarterback's legendary Patriots career was polished off with 6 Super Bowls, 4 Super Bowl MVPs, 4 regular-season MVPs, 14 Pro Bowls, and 5 all-pro nods. Not too shabby, Tom. The timing of Brady's announcement was a bit odd - he announced he was leaving the Patriots well before announcing who his next team would be. The Buccaneers had been linked to him by many, and although I was holding out hope that my prediction of the Chargers would come to fruition, Tampa seems like the right spot for him to finish out his career.
Florida is the spot where lots middle-aged dudes opt to finish out their careers and retire, so it's a smart move on Tom's part in that sense. Beyond that, the Bucs have plenty to offer - a litany of offensive weapons, a player-friendly and beloved coach in Bruce Arians, and a division that should offer Brady a relatively easy path to the playoffs. Arians has coached several great quarterbacks in the past - Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer. His offense preaches verticality and aggressiveness, but he has shown a willingness to adapt to different QB styles in the past. The partnership between Arians and Brady should be a much more amicable one than it seems Belichick and Brady turned out to be.
The fractured relationship between Bill Belichick and Tom Brady has been reported by NFL analysts, but many fans laughed it off as nitpicking a dynasty. Winning and friendship are not mutually exclusive - just ask Kobe and Shaq. Just like the pair of Lakers teammates, the Patriots head coach and quarterback haven't always seen eye to eye, despite their enormous amount of success together. On an NFL Network appearance, Brady once recalled what Belichick told him following their win in Super Bowl 36 - the birth of a dynasty. "Tom, just wanted to let you know you had a pretty good year," Bill told his quarterback. Belichick was always poking and prodding to get more out of his QB, and I'd say Brady did a pretty good job of delivering.
When Brady announced his departure from the Patriots, he made it seem like it was on his terms. Realistically, though, there's no way the Pats would even come close to matching the offer Tampa made. It was later reported by Tom E. Curran that "a tangible effort by the Patriots to keep Tom Brady in New England never happened". That shouldn't come as a major surprise once you look at Bill Belichick's history. As he has built this dynasty over the past 20 years, one thing he has never done is overpay for past performance. He has been criticized for moving on from players a year too early and is ruthless in negotiations for how much he thinks his guys are really worth. It never seemed like he would be the one to offer a 43-year-old QB $30 million for this season.
Part of the blame for Brady's departure should fall on Belichick's ruthlessness as the general manager. Financial dissonance between the two parties has been an offseason narrative for the past two seasons. Belichick also has to take some blame for his inability to surround Brady with the right offensive weapons. Since Rob Gronkowski's decline in talent and eventual retirement, the team has essentially gotten no production out of the tight end position. You would be hard-pressed to name a consistently great wideout for the team over the past several seasons other than Julian Edelman, as well. Draft capital has been squandered - the team has recently spent first-round picks on N'Keal Harry and Sony Michel, as well as trading a second-round pick for Mohamed Sanu. None of those players were difference makers this past season. As DeAndre Hopkins and Stefon Diggs, two top-20 receivers in the NFL (and arguably the best in Hopkins's case) were traded away from their teams and not to the Patriots, it felt like the team's grip on Brady's future was slipping away.
In Tampa Bay, Tom Brady will benefit from quite possibly the best group of offensive weapons of his entire career. Pro Football Focus ranked Chris Godwin as the #1 receiver in the NFL in 2019. Mike Evans closely followed as their 6th-ranked wideout. The duo combined for 153 catches for 2,490 yards and 17 touchdowns last year. The Pats had one top 50 wideout per PFF (Julian Edelman, #48). The rest of their receivers finished outside the top 75 in the league. Brady will also benefit from vastly improved tight end play - Cameron Brate has been reliable for years and O.J. Howard still has massive untapped potential as a red-zone threat and vertical phenom. Both are certainly better than the Matt LaCosse - Ben Watson combo New England ran out last year. Brady will miss James White, one of the better receiving halfbacks in the league, but Dare Ogunbowale could prove surprisingly valuable in that respect (he caught 35 passes in 2019).
Brady will suffer from a decline in offensive line talent - the Patriots ranked 5th per Football Outsiders in pass protection last year while the Bucs ranked 22nd. The Bucs do have Ryan Jensen, one of the best centers in football, and consistently underappreciated guard Ali Marpet, but their remaining three offensive line starters ranked outside the top-30 at their respective positions. Luckily, Brady is generally more prone to inside pressure than the outside rush, and the Bucs should allow him space to step up in the pocket.
At the core of all of this lies two highly successful individuals parting ways and betting on themselves. Brady and Belichick can't be knocked for having the utmost confidence after what they've accomplished over the past twenty years. After all, this is possibly the best dynasty the NFL has ever seen. However, it still feels like each of them has a ton to prove this season. Belichick will have to prove he can succeed without the guy many view as the best quarterback of all time (notice how I didn't call him the best, I'm a Peyton guy till I die). The Pats will still need to find their starter for next season unless they see more in Jarrett Stidham than most do.
Tom Brady's legacy is cemented. Nothing that happens over the next couple of seasons can take away his copious career accomplishments - but it does feel concerning that he could leave a bad taste in everyone's mouth if this doesn't go as he plans. We've had plenty of examples of quarterbacks finishing their careers out in a less-than-perfect way with a new team - Joe Montana with the Chiefs, Joe Namath with the Rams, Johnny Unitas with the Chargers, Donovan McNabb with the Vikings. But if Brady believes that at age 43 he still has enough left in the tank who are we to question him? Even with a dearth of offensive talent surrounding him in New England this past season, Tom was PFF's 12th rated QB last year. His numbers should only go up in Tampa assuming his physical ability doesn't see too sharp of a decline.
In terms of Tom's immediate chances at contention, Tampa had a really underrated defense last year (1st in run defense and 12th in pass defense per Football Outsiders). Vegas Insider has the Bucs with the 6th-best chance of winning the Super Bowl at the moment (14/1) which seems about right given their talent on both sides of the ball. On paper, this seems like a great fit, but a litany of factors could get in the way of Brady's success this season. For the time being, Tampa fans can revel in the fact that their new quarterback most definitely won't be throwing 30 interceptions next season. The Dolphins, Bills, and Jets have to be thrilled at the prospect of a suddenly open AFC East, and Patriots fans will be facing down the possibility of a season without a playoff appearance - their first since 2008.
