Could a Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo Swap Make Sense for the Patriots and 49ers?
By: Wayne
According to NBC Sports Boston's Tom E. Curran, the San Francisco 49ers are considered a top contender to secure the quarterback who many consider the best of all time in Tom Brady. The Niners are coming off a massively improved season, going from 4-12 to 13-3 and an NFC championship. They did end up losing to the Chiefs by a final score of 31-20 in Super Bowl LIV in a somewhat controversial game (check out my recap article for more details on the referee shitshow), but it's difficult to put the blame squarely on Jimmy G's shoulders. This 49ers team still has a ton of talent on both sides of the ball and should certainly be looked at as one of the top contenders to win Super Bowl LV.
The 49ers would be an intriguing fit for Brady for a few reasons. Of course, their ready-made contender status makes them one of the best landing spots if he wants to compete for another Super Bowl. The 49ers are one of the only teams that can touch the level of the Pats' defensive unit - the two teams rank as Football Outsiders #1 and #2 defenses, respectively. Brady would also have the opportunity to return to Northern California - he was born in San Mateo and went to high school at Junipero Serra. Kyle Shanahan likely intrigues Brady as a young offensive mind, and the two have some history from Super Bowl LI. Shanahan was the offensive coordinator on that Falcons team that blew a 28-3 lead as Brady led a comeback win for the ages. The 49ers are probably the best landing spot for Brady with their combination of roster talent and location.
As Shanahan continues his quest for a Super Bowl, it's not entirely surprising that Curran also reported that the head coach has some "reservations about Garoppolo's ceiling and overall decision making". Jimmy G ranked as PFF's 13th-best quarterback in the 2019-20 season, incidentally one spot lower than Brady. The Handsome One ranked 12th in total yards this past year and was accurate at 5th in completion percentage. It wasn't just dinking and dunking either - he ranked 3rd in the league in yards per attempt. Jimmy G ranked 5th in touchdowns with 27, although he did tie Ryan Fitzpatrick and Andy Dalton for the 6th-most interceptions league-wide.
But then, there's the lack of upside - Garoppolo had the 12th-fewest air yards per completion in the league. He also threw behind the first-down marker by about 2.5 yards per throw - more than every quarterback except for Teddy Bridgewater (minimum 128 attempts). That stat suggests he relied far more on his skill position players picking up yards after the catch than his own downfield passing ability. To Garoppolo's credit, he had the 4th-best completion percentage in the league with the 7th-least amount of time to get his throws off (all per NFL Next-Gen stats). However, if Shanahan wants to develop more of a versatile, downfield-oriented passing attack to make the team less predictable it's unclear if Garoppolo is good enough to get it done.
To be fair, Brady didn't fare much better in 2019 as a downfield passer. He graded as PFF's 13th-best QB, ranking 7th in both total yards and touchdowns (79 more yards and 3 fewer touchdowns than Jimmy G). Brady did only throw 8 interceptions, to his credit - only 3 QBs who started 16 games for their team had fewer picks (Wentz, Wilson, Rodgers). Brady had about the same air yards per completion as Jimmy G while throwing a yard deeper per attempt. Brady ranked outside the top-25 in the NFL in completion percentage, behind such stalwarts as Kyle Allen, Mason Rudolph, and Mitchell Trubisky - gross. Per PFF's data, this was Brady's worst-graded season in a decade. How much of that has to do with him turning 42 just before the season started versus the lack of supporting talent on the roster is up for some debate. In San Francisco, the supporting talent would not be a part of the problem.
Brady and Garoppolo's stats can't be fully taken at face value for this past season - the 49ers' supporting cast was worlds better than in New England. Seriously, it's like comparing two racecar drivers if one is in a Honda Civic and one is in a Ferrari. Actually, scratch that. A Honda Civic could actually pick up a few yards, unlike the Pats offense. The Patriots only had 1 receiver inside PFF's top 60 - Julian Edelman, #48 - while the Niners had 3 - Deebo Samuel (#21), Emmanuel Sanders (#22), and Kendrick Bourne (#56). The Patriots also failed miserably at replacing Gronk this season with the combination of Benjamin Watson and Matt LaCosse - PFF's #49 and #55 tight ends. George Kittle graded out as PFF's top tight end and the best skill position player in the NFL thanks to his elite combination of blocking, route-running, physicality, and catching in traffic. Watching Brady throw to Kittle would elicit flashbacks to Gronk spikes every game as the duo would undoubtedly dominate.
There's little question that Bill Belichick failed to surround Brady with enough weapons this season in New England. N'Keal Harry was the second wide receiver drafted in 2019, but he did not produce nearly as much as some of the guys taken behind him - Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, Mecole Hardman, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Hunter Renfrow, and Darius Slayton all put together much better seasons than Harry's 12 catches for 105 yards. Sony Michel, a former first-round pick for the Pats, took a big step backward after being dominant in last year's playoffs - he failed to reach 1000 yards on the ground and only rushed for 3.7 yards per carry.
In free agency, there were plenty of veteran wideouts who could have proven serviceable in New England - Golden Tate, Robby Anderson, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Jamison Crowder, Cole, and Beasley could have made a real impact. The Pats didn't sign any of them, though. Instead, they went into camp with weed enthusiast Josh Gordon and the 32-year-old Julian Edelman as their only proven receivers on the depth chart. Antonio Brown had a well-documented falling out with Raiders management and was released from the team just before the season. It didn't come as a huge shock that Brown's Patriots tenure only lasted one game after he was hit with allegations of sexual and personal misconduct. So essentially Bill was relying on two guys at the receiver position who have proven they can't stay on the field in Gordon and Brown.
The Pats have also failed at replacing Brady's favorite target Gronk at the tight end position despite late-round talent breaking out on other teams - guys like Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, Will Dissly, and Austin Hooper were some of the most productive tight ends in the league in 2019 even though their teams did not invest high draft capital in them. Meanwhile, the Pats relied on Benjamin Watson and Matt LaCosse who combined for 30 catches for 304 yards. The lack of a red-zone presence was particularly problematic for New England this year.
This Patriots offense clearly wasn't ready to support Brady in the ways he needs to make a deep playoff run, and the 42-year-old quarterback doesn't quite fit the team's timetable anymore. Jimmy Garoppolo, on the other hand, would be someone who the Pats would love to bring back. He was supposed to be the future at the position after Brady, but a falling out between head coach and quarterback saw owner Robert Kraft force Belichick to move on from Jimmy G. It's a poorly kept secret at this point that Bill would have picked keeping Jimmy over Tom a couple of years ago, and it seemed like a bit of a move to spite Kraft that he sent Jimmy G to a contending team with a coach he respects, somewhere he could win.
Garoppolo is 14 years younger than Brady, and would certainly extend this team's life as a contender, although the holes on offense still need to be addressed. For the 49ers, they were a few throws away from a Super Bowl win this year, and Brady could be the guy to make that happen. Jimmy G is being paid $27.5 million on average per year until 2023, and I don't think that Shanahan thinks he needs him specifically at QB. He would likely be content looking for a new option who is less costly after a couple of years of Brady.
The financial and logistical aspects of a Garoppolo-Brady swap are what makes it so interesting to me. The Patriots are looking for a trustworthy, efficient QB who can play several more seasons with Belichick and the 49ers are looking for someone who has proven they can win Super Bowls. Garoppolo's familiarity with New England and Brady's NorCal upbringing is just the icing on the cake. There also wouldn't be any dropoff in handsomeness for either team, a real concern when you're thinking about replacing a franchise face as head-turning as these two guys. A few weeks ago, I would have laughed off this trade as a possibility, but there are elements to it that make a surprising amount of sense. Keep your eyes on San Francisco for the next few weeks as Brady gets ready to test the free agency market in earnest for the first time in his career.
