Joe Burrow - Scouting Profile
By: Schwartz
The NFL draft is still over a month away, but there’s not much happening in the world of sports at the moment. Of course, plenty is happening around the world as we face the terrifying reality of the unknown that comes with a mass-scale pandemic in COVID-19. My job as a sports analyst is to bring you guys content that hopefully puts a smile on your face and serves as a distraction from the crazy shit that’s happening. I’m diving deep into NFL draft tape and ranking my favorite players from each position. I’ll talk about their strengths and weaknesses, how they project in the NFL, where they might go in the draft, and what their best/worst fits might be in terms of teams. I hope you guys enjoy this series as much as I did making it, and as always be sure to let me know what you think about each player in the comments section. To start things off, let’s dive into what is probably the most important position in the NFL - quarterback.
Joe Burrow
Burrow set the world on fire in 2019. The Heisman winner led LSU to an undefeated record and the CFP championship in a 42-25 defeat over the Clemson Tigers. He might have put together the greatest individual season in college football history as well. He broke the record for passing touchdowns in a season (60) that was previously held by Hawaii’s Colt Brennan. Burrow also ran for another 5 scores, breaking the record for combined touchdowns. He put together video-game numbers in LSU’s offense, and his name is now everywhere in the record books: most single-season passing yards, most playoff passing yards, most title game passing yards, most bowl game touchdowns, most total yards in the playoff, and most total yards in the championship game. I’m out of breath just from typing that. Burrow will also end his college career with the best win percentage by an LSU quarterback of all time. Surely, his winning ways and dominant play will continue in the NFL, right? The Cincinnati Bengals’ decision with the first overall pick would suggest so, as it’s pretty close to a lock at this point - Burrow is about -2500 to be the first pick on most sportsbooks.
LSU had been late to the party in recent years as the college football world evolved to favor the spread offense. In Baton Rouge, they were still running sets with two running backs or tight ends while their opponents would split 5 receivers out wide and air out the football. That all changed when two things happened - the Tigers hired Joe Brady away from the New Orleans Saints to be their new passing game coordinator and Joe Burrow transferred in from Ohio State. To say that Burrow ran the offense perfectly would be an understatement. However, as the redshirt senior transitions to the NFL, will his skillset translate? The Bengals ran 11 personnel - 3 wide receivers, 1 tight end, and 1 running back - more than any other team in the NFL last season with 74% frequency. That shouldn’t come as a huge surprise - head coach Zac Taylor comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree. McVay revolutionized the NFL in a way when he ran 11 personnel on 88% of the Rams plays in 2018 as they went on to secure a Super Bowl berth. Burrow will be right at home in this offense as LSU ran a ton of 11 personnel as part of their spread offense in 2019.
Of some concern is the Bengals’ poor offensive line - they ranked just 21st in pass protection last year per Football Outsiders and gave up the 6th-most sacks in the NFL. However, PFF graded Burrow as one of the best quarterbacks under pressure in college football and he has shown a solid ability to maneuver the pocket and keep his eyes downfield. He’s not an elite runner by any stretch, but Burrow has the upside to be a Ben Roethlisberger-style improvisational player in the NFL. He’s really good at staying upright even in the face of strong pressure from the defense and keeps plays alive longer than most would have the ability to. The quarterback’s pocket presence flashes on tape and he has a strong understanding of where his receivers will be during every play. Some of the most impressive throws come on plays where the pocket collapses and he steps up to keep the play alive and find his man downfield. Burrow’s tape also shows that he has the ability to make pre-snap reads and audible his guys to the right spots - this will maximize the effectiveness of any given play. Burrow did show a tendency at times to tuck and run on plays if his first read wasn’t open, and he isn’t quite an elite enough athlete to make him an explosive rushing threat. However, on other plays, he shows an ability to read the entire field and make lightning-quick reads. Burrow doesn’t really step into his throws all of the time, and he seems to rely on his core strength and torque at times especially on throws inside the numbers. There are some aspects to his footwork that could use some fine-tuning, but generally, he controls the field well and shows an elite football IQ.
Joe Burrow’s impossibly dominant 2019 season sort of came from out of nowhere. Most quarterbacks who lose out on a starting job at their first university don’t transfer and become the best player in the game. A year after ranking as PFF’s #38 QB, Burrow placed number one this past season. However, Burrow comes from a football family and was Ohio’s Mr. Football in high school, so his success shouldn’t be too surprising. Burrow’s best trait which consistently flashes on film is his pinpoint accuracy, especially inside the numbers. His outside throws weren’t necessarily off-target, but his middle-of-the-field throws were impeccably timed and often thrown to lead the receiver to a spot where he would find himself more open. He shows the elite ability to throw his receivers open, even in traffic, without taking unnecessary risks. He also has an innate ability to understand the timing of windows opening on the field and when to throw the ball to maximize the receiver’s catchability. His anticipation sets him apart from any other prospect in this year’s class - he seems to know how every play will unfold before the ball leaves his hands. Burrow’s deep-ball has solid accuracy but lacked a bit of velocity at times and the slow drop time sometimes led to missed opportunities. He doesn’t have the elite arm strength of other players, which isn’t an issue when he has time to set and throw downfield, but on improvised plays, it sometimes prevented him from completing deep passes. That lack of velocity may prevent him from making tough downfield throws consistently, but Burrow’s ball placement is some of the best I’ve personally seen when he has time to set his feet.
Joe Burrow’s intangibles jump off the page more than any other player in this year’s class. He’s obviously an accomplished player but calling him a winner doesn’t even begin to do him justice. He made his teammates better with his leadership and competitive drive, and he didn’t have the best season for a quarterback in college history by accident. His football IQ is off the charts and he is consistently cool under pressure. You love your franchise QB to have been in the big games Burrow has at his age. He is always poised and never seems flustered by pressure as he maintains a high-level awareness of the entire field. Burrow will turn 24 years old as a rookie and is as close as it gets to a finished product.
Grades:
Accuracy/ball placement: 10/10
Decision-making/progressions: 9/10
Arm talent: 7/10
Pocket presence: 9/10
Mechanics/footwork: 8/10
Mobility: 7/10
Improvisation: 8/10
Football IQ/intangibles: 10/10
Total grade: 68/80
Strengths
Pocket presence and awareness, solid improvisational ability
Has a penchant for extending plays and creating long gains out of “broken” plays
Anticipation and timing, ability to read the field and deliver balls on-time
Ball placement - throws receivers open even in traffic
Perfect accuracy, especially inside the numbers
Elite football intelligence and innate feel for making progressions
Franchise player - leader on and off the field, competitive and cool
Weaknesses
Lacks elite arm strength and velocity
Footwork needs fine-tuning, needs to learn how to consistently step into throws
Needs to learn to better utilize varied timing on dropbacks to beat pressure
Was impressive only in his senior season with a stellar offensive cast; hasn’t been special ever before, struggling with mediocre to average supporting players
Pro Comps: Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Tannehill
