NFL Win Totals O/U - NFC West
By: Wayne and Schwartz
San Francisco 49ers
2020 win total: 10.5
SOS: #19
2019 record: 13-3
Schwartz: over
Wayne: over
Schwartz: Over. Other than the loss of DeForest Buckner, this team is very similar to the one that just went to the Super Bowl, somehow even retaining defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to prop up the defense alongside offensive whiz, head coach Kyle Shanahan. The Cardinals present a new challenge in the West, after a frenzied offseason, but the Niners’ other division foes should be candidates to take a step back. They may not win 13 games or be the NFC’s top seed again this year, but they certainly should comfortably crack the double-digit win plateau. Brandon Aiyuk was a weird choice, but it’s good to see the Niners addressing wide receiver following the departure of Emmanuel Sanders, and Javon Kinlaw is as good of a rookie replacement as you could ask for in Buckner’s place, even if he won’t immediately make the same impact as the Oregon alum. There’s no reason to expect anything but solid performances from the defense, and after another ridiculous blown lead in a Super Bowl, Kyle Shanahan will be pushing himself to be more innovative than ever on the offensive side. The win total might not be the same, but the Niners will be solid again. Final prediction: 11-5 (3-seed)
Wayne: Over. I don’t see the Niners getting to 13 wins in an improved NFC West, but I trust Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh to comfortably lead this squad to double-digit wins. The Niners were a top-ten team in both points scored (2nd) and points against (8th). Their defense should again be elite and while I understand Schwartz’s apprehension about the DeForest Buckner loss, I actually think Kinlaw could be more impactful as a pass-rusher. The offense should be elite as Deebo Samuel enters Year Two, joining Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle as the top pass-catchers. Their run game will also be stellar with Raheem Mostert having fully broken out. Their pivot from Joe Staley (retirement) to Trent Williams (trade) was masterfully done and is the type of move teams dream of being able to make. There’s no two ways about it, John Lynch is the brilliant architect of one of the best teams in football and the infrastructure in Northern California should prevent any kind of a post-Super Bowl letdown. Final prediction: 12-4 (#2 seed).
Biggest addition: Trent Williams. The Niners didn’t really have the best offseason following their near-miss/officiating fix job in Super Bowl 54. They moved DeForest Buckner, and replaced him with Javon Kinlaw. They lost Emmanuel Sanders, and drafted Brandon Aiyuk in the first round despite his recent injury history and the presence of much better receivers still available. They did slightly upgrade at tackle, however, bringing in Williams to fill the hole left by the retired Joe Staley. Replacing a stalwart at the position with another elite veteran is a pristine move by John Lynch.
Biggest loss: Buckner. I’m not sure I understand much about this trade. Buckner was arguably the biggest part of the Niners’ front seven (with respect to Nick Bosa and Dee Ford) that made the team so tough to play against last year. Kinlaw is a solid young player who will play good snaps for the Niners, but he is not the same at all, at least not right away. They save money by making this swap but they may live to regret losing Buckner’s presence.
Seattle Seahawks
2020 win total: 9.5
SOS: #20
2019 record: 11-5
Schwartz: over
Wayne: under
Schwartz: Over. Not a lot to say about this team except that it’s hard to not have faith in a high quality QB/Head Coach duo. Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson are two of the best in the business, if not the league’s very best example of the most important pairing in football. Similarly, the Hawks have the best defensive leader in the sport, veteran middle linebacker Bobby Wagner, a surefire future Hall of Famer who is currently directly in his prime. This team has flaws, but also hasn’t dipped lower than 9 wins, a level they fell to just once, since the famed BeastQuake season in 2011. The Hawks are consistent performers, and as long as Russ remains on the field, they should make it to 10 wins again. Final prediction: 10-6 (6-seed)
Wayne: Under. Am I going to regret this? Probably. But I can’t shake the feeling that the Seahawks significantly overperformed in 2019 as an 11-win club - their expected win total per Pro Football Reference was 8.2. Aside from a Week 4 drubbing of the Cardinals, the Seahawks won the rest of their 10 games by an average of 4.5 points. Perhaps you can point to the resolve of a great HC/QB combination - Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson are among the best - or one of the best team cultures in the NFL. At a certain point, though, the Seahawks’ insistence on playing base defense more than any other team by far is going to catch up with them - they allowed the 6th-most yards last season and the most big plays in the NFL. Their offense should be set with skill position talent in Chris Carson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and recent signing Greg Olsen, but they don’t have much depth behind those guys. The Seahawks also tied for the 5th-most sacks allowed in football last year. Russ and Pete could make me look silly for this, but the Seahawks just don’t have the talent/depth of a double-digit-win team in my eyes. Final prediction: 9-7 (miss tiebreaker for #7 seed).
Biggest addition: The Seahawks didn’t make any major additions this offseason, although Greg Olsen, Carlos Hyde, Mike Iupati, Bruce Irvin, and Quinton Dunbar are veterans who will make an impact on this team. My favorite addition is likely Damien Lewis who is a future interior offensive line starter they snagged in the third round.
Biggest loss: George Fant and Quinton Jefferson were both starters last year, but neither one was anything special and they’ll be easily replaced. Jadeveon Clowney will be the answer if he ends up signing for another team as he was the team’s best pass-rusher by far in 2019. Recent reports have linked the Browns, Titans, and Jets to Clowney, but it seems like his time in Seattle has come to a close.
Los Angeles Rams
2020 win total: 8.5
SOS: #6
2019 record: 9-7
Schwartz: under
Wayne: under
Schwartz: Under. This is a very flawed team who have had a dismal offseason, and are competing in perhaps the toughest division in football. Bad roster decisions have absolutely sunk this team’s once-bright future, such as giving a huge payday to a very not-special quarterback and paying a star halfback for past performance, have assured that they won’t attain the heights they reached in 2018 for a while. Saddled with brutal contracts, the Rams were not able to have a fantastic offseason in free agency, and drafted poorly. At best, they are treading water in terms of roster talent, while playoff favorites in the division have done the same, and the Cardinals have done nothing but improve. This team will greatly struggle to stay afloat in the hyper-competitive NFC West, and be extremely lucky to touch a .500 season. Final prediction: 6-10
Wayne: Under. The Rams have flaws, like Schwartz said, and this schedule (the 6th-toughest in football) is doing them no favors. As much as it pains me to say this as a sometimes-Rams fan, I don’t see how this team improves heading into 2020. Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Dante Fowler Jr., Cory Littleton, Clay Matthews, Nickell Robey-Coleman, Eric Weddle, and Greg Zuerlein are all significant losses and the Rams had a pretty mediocre draft in my eyes (although I do love the value of Terrell Lewis in the 3rd round). Sean McVay is well-established as one of the best offensive minds in football, but it’s going to be very difficult for him to continue to coach around a lack of offensive line talent, especially now that Gurley’s absence means little in the way of an established run game. Their post-bye week schedule could leave them clawing for air with a stretch that includes the Seahawks (twice) Bucs (on the road), 49ers, Cardinals (twice), Patriots, and Jets - they might go 2-6 or 1-7 in that stretch. The Rams have made some poor roster moves as of late and they’re going to undergo a tough year of transition as they look to re-establish their identity moving forward. Final prediction: 6-10.
Biggest addition: Leonard Floyd was a great get to replace Dante Fowler Jr. and provide pass-rush juice next to Aaron Donald. He might not be quite as good as Fowler, but he’ll certainly start on this defense. The Rams didn’t have my favorite draft with Cam Akers seemingly an unnecessary addition and Van Jefferson 23 years old and coming off ankle surgery. I did love the addition of Terrell Lewis, though, as the former Alabama player will make his 3rd-round selection look silly if he can stay healthy - he’ll be a great pass-rusher for years to come and reminds me of Von Miller on film.
Biggest loss: Todd Gurley has been this team’s lead running back for the past several years, and Sean McVay will need to employ a committee approach to replicate his production. The team also lost their longtime kicker, Greg “the leg” Zuerlein, who hit many a long kick and helped the Rams to a litany of close wins. Dante Fowler Jr. is the biggest loss on defense, but Leonard Floyd will do just fine as his replacement.
Arizona Cardinals
2020 win total: 7
SOS: #12
2019 record: 5-10-1
Schwartz: over
Wayne: over
Schwartz: Over. The Cardinals were a huge offseason winner, bringing in DeAndre Hopkins through a bizarre and favorable trade and supplementing the defense through the draft, headlined by do-it-all Clemson star Isaiah Simmons. Besides adding arguably the best wideout in football as the cherry on top of what is suddenly a ridiculous wideout room with Andy Isabella as WR4, the Cards gave Kyler Murray a huge gift by stealing offensive tackle Josh Jones somehow in round 3. Jones should start right away, and will provide much-needed protection for Arizona’s hyper-talented but frustratingly tiny passer. Kyler and Kliff Kingsbury are big candidates to take a big step up in year 2, as they should be at the helm of a high-flying offense and a more-competent defense. This is a fringe playoff contender, and should be able to beat a total of 7 wins. Final prediction: 9-7 (lose tiebreaker for 7-seed)
Wayne: Over. The Cardinals had the best offseason in football in my estimation with important additions on both sides of the ball. I also am a huge fan of Kyler Murray and expect huge strides forward in Year 2 of him playing in Kliff Kingsbury’s QB-friendly system. DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, and Kenyan Drake give Kyler plenty of electric receiving options and the defense should be significantly improved from last year with the additions of De’Vondre Campbell, Devon Kennard, Jordan Philips, and Isaiah Simmons joining Patrick Peterson, Budda Baker, and Chandler Johnson. The Cardinals should be a threat to split their games with the 49ers and Seahawks and could come away with a shock winning record in their division. They could also sweep the AFC East which is perhaps the worst division in football and should come away with a couple of wins from the NFC South. The Cardinals are a dark horse to win this division and if I had to pick one basement-dweller to win their division in 2020 it would be them. Final prediction: 10-6. (#6 seed)
Biggest addition: Well. Hello, DeAndre Hopkins. Welcome to the fastest-improving team in football (non-Florida category). The Cardinals were the big winner of the offseason with the addition of Nuk alone, and then they went and added De’Vondre Campbell, Devon Kennard, and Jordan Philips who will likely all be starting in the front seven this year. Oh wait, and then they also drafted Isaiah Simmons who was the most hyped-up defensive player in this year’s draft and will line up all over the field for the Cards. As if that wasn’t enough, they also got Josh Jones in the third round, a guy who I had graded as a first-round pick and will likely start at right tackle right away for this team.
Biggest loss: No standouts here. David Johnson would have been the answer had he not fallen off the face of the earth last year. Kenyan Drake was a major improvement after his midseason trade. The rest of the Cards’ losses are pretty easily replaceable.
