NFL Win Totals O/U - AFC West
By: Wayne and Schwartz
Kansas City Chiefs
2020 Win Total: 11.5
SOS: #26
2019 record: 12-4
Schwartz: over
Wayne: under
Schwartz: Over. I hate them. I hate this pick. I hate picking any team in a division as competitive as this one other than the (now defunct) Brady Pats to win 12 games. But the Super Bowl 54 “winners” have shown no signs that point towards regression. The roster is still extremely strong, and they will likely have a more-healthy Pat Mahomes for the bulk of the season. Brutal visits to Buffalo, Baltimore, New Orleans, and Tampa give me pause, but as long as they steal one of those four games, or manage to go .500 in them, they shouldn’t drop more than one or two games in the rest of their schedule, and have a real chance to go undefeated at home, where they should be favored in every game. This is a tough one but the Chiefs should find a way to win 12 again, as the “defending champs” have a case to call themselves the best team in football. Final prediction: 12-4 (1-seed)
Wayne: Under. The Chiefs have perhaps the most brutal road schedule out of any team in football this year - games at the Chargers, Ravens, Bills, Broncos, Buccaneers, and Saints should all be losable. The Chiefs will also be facing a ton of lost defensive talent - Emmanuel Ogbah, Darron Lee, Reggie Ragland, Morris Claiborne, and Kendall Fuller are no longer on the team. Of course, with Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce being coached by Andy Reid, it’s difficult to imagine this team losing more than a handful of games. However, with the highest win total in the NFL and a brutal road slate I’m leaning towards the under for this team. Final prediction: 11-5 (#2 seed in AFC).
Biggest addition: Thank god the Chiefs at least had a shitty offseason. We here at WWOS don’t exactly buy into the impact of running backs on NFL success, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire is probably the most important add for this team. The KC backfield was a mess last year with Damien Williams, LeSean McCoy, Darrell Williams, and Spencer Ware all seeing carries - CEH is more talented than all of them, and is an absolutely perfect system fit. He’ll also be a force in the passing game and is a decent bet to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. That all being said, every back from Jamaal Charles, to Kareem Hunt, to the four aforementioned, mediocre players who Andy Reid has stuck in his KC backfields has been highly productive, so it’s extremely hard to justify spending a valuable first-round pick on a back, even one as talented as Edwards-Helaire.
Biggest loss: The Chiefs lost a number of important defensive contributors in Emmanuel Ogbah, Darron Lee, Reggie Ragland, Morris Claiborne, and Kendall Fuller. It may not end up mattering much, though, with how Patrick Mahomes seems to be the NFL’s new chosen boy and this team will get every ref’s love this year. But we digress.
Las Vegas Raiders
2020 Win Total: 7.5
SOS: #3
2019 record: 7-9
Schwartz: under
Wayne: under
Schwartz: Under. And now we have the entire rest of the AFC west that projects exactly the same at 7.5 wins. I thought this team overachieved last year at 7-9 last year, and they haven’t really improved. They had an abysmal draft, didn’t make too much of a free agency splash, and the acquisition of Marcus Mariota sets the stage for an infuriating back-and-forth QB situation, which hardly ever leads to success. I don’t have a ton to say about this squad, because I don’t foresee there being much to really talk about with them this season other than their perfectly fitting move to Sin City, especially when you consider that their brutal schedule could further depress their already-shaky win total. Final prediction: 6-10
Wayne: Under. I’m with Schwartz here - this Raiders team overperformed at 7-9, as much as I love Jon Gruden - their expected win total last year per Pro Football Focus was 5.3. The Raiders had an abysmal pass rush last year, only generating 32 sacks as a team, and haven’t done much to remedy that issue. They overdrafted Henry Ruggs and Damon Arnette, failing to take advantage of an excellent draft positioning as a result of trading away Khalil Mack a couple of seasons ago. Derek Carr is serviceable at quarterback, but the signing of Marcus Mariota signals Gruden may be ready to make a change. That wouldn’t be the only change for the Raiders, as they navigate moving to a new stadium in a new state in the middle of this pandemic. To make matters worse, the Raiders have the 3rd-toughest schedule in football this year. I’m out as out can be on this team. Final prediction: 5-11.
Biggest addition: Henry Ruggs, I GUESS. The Raiders made a bunch of solid adds through FA and the draft, like Damarious Randall, somehow, Jason Witten, Cory Littleton, and a high-end backup(?) QB in Marcus Mariota. But the most immediately impactful newcomer should be the Alabama product who is a dead ringer for Jon Gruden’s high-speed offensive system, even if he was severely overdrafted.
Biggest loss: Nothing huge, but Vegas lost 2019 starters in Tahir Whitehead, Karl Joseph, and Daryl Worley. Nothing irreplaceable, this offseason was a relatively quiet one, other than the team’s impending move to Nevada.
Los Angeles Chargers
2020 win total: 7.5
SOS: #23
2019 record: 5-11
Schwartz: over
Wayne: over
Schwartz: Over. This team should be due to take a step up with a healthy defense, including the addition of middle linebacker Kenneth Murray and the return of hyper-talented swiss army knife safety Derwin James. The Chargers will make a playoff push and crack .500 under Tyrod Taylor, who will be starved for a chance to lead and compete after his wild card flop with the 2017 Bills. Final prediction: 8-8
Wayne: Over. I felt like the Chargers reached on Justin Herbert at the top of the draft, but that doesn’t mean this team doesn’t have the capability to go at least .500. The defense should be among the league’s best with a talented cast of characters in Joey Bosa, Derwin James, Casey Hayward, and Melvin Ingram along with free agent signings Linval Joseph and Chris Harris Jr. as well as the recently-drafted Kenneth Murray. The Chargers have a fairly easy pre-bye schedule with only two 2019 playoff teams on the docket before Week 10, but if Justin Herbert takes over during the team’s bye week he’ll have a rude welcome with the Broncos, Bills, and Patriots up next. Anthony Lynn is a culture-setter as the head coach and he should be able to help this talented team navigate the concerns with the pandemic and a potential QB change midway through the year. There is plenty of talent on both sides of the ball and .500 is very doable for this team. Final prediction: 8-8 (#7 seed in AFC).
Biggest addition: Chris Harris Jr. will help bolster what should be one of the better secondaries in the NFL along with Derwin James (who, after missing all of last year is a huge add in his own way), Casey Hayward, and Desmond King. Bryan Bulaga will also help provide some stability to what was one of the worst offensive lines in football last year. Linval Joseph will also help provide stability on the defensive line. Justin Herbert is the big long-term name, but he probably won’t start more than a handful of games this year, if any.
Biggest loss: Philip Rivers is the obvious name after 16 years as the starter for the Bolts, but Melvin Gordon, Russell Okung, and Michael Schofield were also important offensive contributors. This team will be undergoing some serious offensive transition in 2020.
Denver Broncos
2020 win total: 7.5
SOS: #5
2019 record: 7-9
Schwartz: over
Wayne: over
Schwartz: Over. It’s hard for a draft class to immediately boost an offense without bringing in a franchise QB. But the Broncos drafted a ton of firepower at WR, and brought in Melvin Gordon, creating an absolute wealth of weapons for Drew Lock to work with. Lock himself remains a question mark, as does the offensive tackle position. Still, with a potentially explosive offense and an always-strong defense, this team can reasonably expect to win more games than they lose, and make the playoffs. Not to mention, they lost an inordinate amount of close contests last year, dropping some inexplicable games along the way. With another year of experience behind their talented youngsters, namely their franchise QB, and some more offensive firepower, expect a few of those narrow margins to flip in Denver’s favor despite a challenging slate of games. Final prediction: 10-6 (5-seed)
Wayne: Over. The Broncos had a clear draft-day agenda of surrounding Drew Lock with talent and they did it with the additions of Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler. Those two talented rookie receivers join an offense that now features Melvin Gordon along with Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, and Philip Lindsay. The offensive line should be much improved as well - Garrett Bolles, Graham Glasgow, Lloyd Cushenberry, Dalton Risner, and Ja'Wuan James should be a very solid 5-man group. The defense should also be much-improved in Year 2 of Vic Fangio with Bradley Chubb returning from his ACL tear and the team adding A.J. Bouye and Jurrell Casey to a core that already included Chubb, Von Miller, Justin Simmons, and Alexander Johnson. The Broncos are a well-balanced roster with talent all over the field. Their schedule is not easy with the NFC South on tap, but the AFC East should provide them with 3-4 wins and they can likely come away with 3-4 wins in the division. While matchups against the Falcons and Panthers come on the road, neither team figures to be all that competitive this year. I like the Broncos to build on their 7-9 record from last season with their first winning record and first playoff appearance since Peyton Manning’s retirement. Final prediction: 9-7 (#6 seed in AFC).
Biggest addition: The Broncos had such an awesome offseason that it’s worth bringing up a few names here. The draft brought a couple of new starters in Jerry Jeudy and Lloyd Cushenberry, while the offseason revitalized the defense with A.J. Bouye and Jurrell Casey. Bradley Chubb will also be making his return from a torn ACL last season. The arrow is pointing up in Denver.
Biggest loss: Chris Harris Jr. has been a high-level starter for the Broncos for several years but he wasn’t the best fit for Vic Fangio’s system and Bouye will be fine to replace him. The real loss is with Derek Wolfe, who has quietly been one of the better defensive linemen in the league for the past half-decade.
