NFL Win Totals O/U - AFC East
By: Wayne and Schwartz
New England Patriots
2020 WIN TOTAL: 9
SOS: #11
2019 RECORD: 12-4
SCHWARTZ: Under
WAYNE: Under
Schwartz: Under. Way under, lock of the season. The roster has been absolutely stripped. Beyond just the loss of Brady, the defense has been decimated. They also didn’t do themselves any favors by drafting miserably and failing to even try to address the wide receiver position to help Jarrett Stidham’s transition into the starting job. Instead, he’ll be working with a questionable o-line and one of the league’s worst pass-catching squads. This team will be closer to the first pick than the playoffs. Not to mention, they play one of the league’s hardest schedules, including brutal visits to Seattle, Kansas City, Houston, LA (twice) and of course the homes of their deceptively tough division foes. Sprinkle in nearly unwinnable home clashes with San Francisco and Baltimore, and things are not looking too good in Foxborough. Vegas’s total of 9 is due to no factors other than the franchise’s name, and their head coach- it has absolutely nothing to do with the players on the team, because the talent on the roster suggests a ceiling of about 6 wins. Final prediction: 5-11
Wayne: Under. That post-bye week stretch of games with 4/6 playoff teams from last year plus the Jets and Cardinals is just frightening. The defense will not be nearly as good and Jarrett Stidham will be thrown into the fire with a clear lack of skill position talent. Bill Belichick is an all-time great, but not even Bill Walsh could coach this team to the playoffs. Games against the Seahawks, Chiefs, Rams, 49ers, and Chargers should be locked in as losses and I don’t see how the Pats get more than 2-3 wins in the AFC East. Final prediction: 6-10
Biggest addition: Adrian Philips - the former All-Pro safety should help bolster an already great secondary. Devin Asiasi is likely the best offensive addition for a team that desperately needed tight end help. Anfernee Jennings and Josh Uche have a ton of upside as part-time pass-rushers, especially with Belichick and friends coaching them up.
Biggest loss: Tom Brady. Duh. He’s the best QB of all time. That being said, over half of the starters from the dominant 2019 defense are gone - Danny Shelton, Elandon Roberts, Jamie Collins, Kyle Van Noy, and Duron Harmon will all need to be replaced, but they all likely looked better than they actually were due to the Pats system. Bill will be just fine on defense without those guys, but replacing so many useful pieces at once is no small task, and the defense is unlikely to be quite as dominant as it was over the first half of last season.
Buffalo Bills
2020 WIN TOTAL: 9
SOS: #11
2019 RECORD: 10-6
SCHWARTZ: Push
WAYNE: OVER
Schwartz: Push. I know, I know. Picking a team to win exactly 9 games is a bit of a needle in the haystack sort of situation. But hear me out. This team has only gotten better from their 10-6 2019 campaign- and you can bet that the Patriots won’t steal two tight games again. However, the AFC East’s tough scheduling draw (vs NFC West and AFC west) could send them to a push with exactly 9 wins, since I can’t see a team this solid ending up with anything but a winning record, but the schedule might not let them fly much higher. If I had to choose over or under, I’d favor the over, but I see a 9-win (but division-winning) season in Buffalo. Final prediction: 9-7 (4-seed)
Wayne: Over. The early-season schedule is absolutely delightful - the Bills should be 4-1 or even 5-0 heading into a Thursday Night Football game against the Chiefs in Week 6. The Bills shouldn’t lose more than one or two games in a weak AFC East. Their bye comes in Week 11 which is a nice spot before a tough stretch against top-end defenses in the Chargers, 49ers, Steelers, Broncos, and Patriots. The NFC West and AFC West could be two of the better divisions this season, but luckily for the Bills, the majority of their tougher games (Chiefs, Seahawks, Steelers) come at home. I like the Bills to cruise through their early-season schedule, go into their bye week at 6-3 or 7-2 and finish up the year strong. Final prediction: 11-5 (#3 seed).
Biggest addition: Recent draftees A.J. Epenesa or Zack Moss could get the nod here, but I’m going with Mario Addison who has had 9+ sacks in each of the past four seasons. He’ll help provide more of a pass rush to a defense that already finished second in points allowed last year but outside the top 12 in sacks. Epensea was a steal in the second round though - despite his lack of elite athletic attributes, he works hard and is a great fit in Buffalo. Moss will do his best Frank Gore imitation. Stefon Diggs is obviously worth mentioning here too, as he will become this team’s best passing weapon after his trade from Minnesota.
Biggest loss: Not many obvious choices here. Frank Gore and Lorenzo Alexander had been important players on this team, but both are old as shit and will be replaced effectively by Moss and Epenesa. Jordan Philips, Cory Liuget, and Shaq Lawson were all solid defensive linemen who are no longer on the team.
New York Jets
2020 WIN TOTAL: 6.5
SOS: #4
2019 RECORD: 7-9
SCHWARTZ: OVER
WAYNE: UNDER
Schwartz: Over. This team went 7-9 last year and experienced a record amount of injuries. Sam Darnold will only be better with a full, mono-free season as the starter, and a healthy CJ Mosely will be a massive game changer for what was already an extremely strong defense. I also think the Jets drafted really well, and have a handful of rookies that can make a significant, immediate impact such as potential WR1 Denzel Mims, one of the great value picks of the draft, and Mekhi Becton, an OT with upside as enormous as his 6’7 frame. This would be one of my biggest locks, but a frankly unfair schedule for a third-place team scares me a lot. Nonetheless, gang green would be hard-pressed to somehow win less games than they did last season in a year where almost everything imaginable, and even some things unimaginable, went wrong. Final prediction: 8-8
Wayne: Under. I disagree with Schwartz here, and a massive reason why is Adam Gase. I just don’t trust this offense to be close to average under Gase - they finished 31st in points for and 32nd in total yards last year. Denzel Mims, Breshad Perriman, and Mekhi Becton should help this offense trend in the right direction, but there’s no elite talent and Sam Darnold just isn’t well-supported by his offensive skill players. The defense will be among the league’s best, especially with a healthy CJ Mosely. However, with the AFC West and NFC West on deck, I don’t see how the Jets come out with more than 2-3 wins against the teams from those divisions. The early-season schedule is unsightly with the Bills, 49ers, Colts, Broncos, Cardinals, Chargers, Bills (again), and Chiefs all coming before November. There’s no way the Jets come out of that with better than a 2-6 record, and I don’t see their defense being enough to earn them a winning record in the AFC East. Final prediction: 5-11.
Biggest addition: Can I say Mosely? He’s already on the roster, but only played 2 of the 64 quarters of the 2019 season - and was a game-changing monster during that time, might I add. Especially if Adams heads out of town (he’s not going to), Mosely is going to be the lynchpin of what figures to be a high-end defense. The biggest roster add, however, is Mekhi Becton, the rookie offensive tackle who figures to provide some much-needed protection for Sam Darnold. He’s raw as hell but has a ton of upside as a 6’7” mobile athletic freak.
Biggest loss: For now, it’s Robby Anderson, but more change could be on the way as extension talks with Jamal Adams have stalled. Ryan Kalil and Kelvin Beachum weren’t exactly stalwarts in New York, but they underscore the fact that the Jets haven’t had an elite offensive line in quite some time.
Miami Dolphins
2020 WIN TOTAL: 6
SOS: #7
2019 RECORD: 5-11
SCHWARTZ: Push
WAYNE: Push
Schwartz: Push. The phins were not nearly as bad as expected last year- they were seen as an 0-16 candidate but managed to still win a handful of games despite (at times) appearing to be openly trying to lose. The schedule will do them no favors, but this is a team that will steal some divisional games and take full advantage of their last-place interdivisional matchups. However, that schedule will still limit their final win total, especially given that many of their most talented players are young, inexperienced, and have not spent nearly enough time working together due to the coronavirus-shortened offseason. If this team cracks .500- which is on the table- Coach Flores would be on the shortlist for coach of the year, but I’m not sure I see it. Final prediction: 6-10
Wayne: Push. Brian Flores led this team to a shocking 5-win season after management traded away several talented players and the team seemed resigned to the #TankForTua campaign. They still got their man at QB, but along the way Flores was able to build a culture that should boost their record in 2020. The defense should be vastly improved after a complete offseason overhaul and Matt Breida/Jordan Howard should provide this team with a run game which was nonexistent in 2019. I’m just having a hard time finding more than 6 wins in this schedule for Miami. Even if they split in their division and beat the Jags/Bengals/Raiders skeleton crew, they would still need to beat one of the AFC West or NFC West teams on their slate. That’s certainly not out of the question, but they won’t be favored in any of those games and this team is going to take some time to totally gel together. If their win total drops to 5.5, I would be willing to put some action on this team. Final prediction: 6-10
Biggest addition: For the franchise at large, the only answer here is Tua. But in regards to impact on this year’s win total, Kyle Van Noy is the right choice. The linebacker will serve as an anchor in Brian Flores’s defense, after many years of working together in New England. Byron Jones is worth a nod here too, as he’ll come in as the team’s top cornerback right away in a quickly-improving secondary. The addition of Matt Breida and Jordan Howard to the roster also helps a ton as Ryan Fitzpatrick was somehow the Dolphins’ leading rusher last year.
Biggest loss: The Dolphins haven’t endured any major losses this offseason, but it’s worth noting that big names in Minkah Fitzpatrick, Kenyan Drake, and Laremy Tunsil had been moved last year to accelerate the team’s rebuild. Aqib Talib and Reshad Jones departed in the offseason but both are aging vets and won’t be overly missed.
