NFL Win Totals O/U - NFC South
By: Wayne and Schwartz
New Orleans Saints
2020 WIN TOTAL: 10.5
SOS: #9
2019 RECORD: 13-3
SCHWARTZ: OVER
WAYNE: OVER
Schwartz: Over. Not a lot to say here. This team just went 13-3 for the second straight season, and haven’t been below 10.5 since 2016. The roster isn’t too changed from last year, save for the addition of a much-needed WR2 in Emmanuel Sanders. The easy explanation for this is that they had very few glaring holes, as they are consistently seen as one of the most complete, balanced rosters in the league. The Saints have shown no signs of slowing down, in the regular season at least, and should comfortably hit the over. Final prediction: 11-5 (5-seed)
Wayne: Over. The Saints can make a strong case of having the best roster in football and it’s hard to imagine what could possibly make them go under 10.5 wins after they maintained a 13-3 record despite Drew Brees missing 5 games. Sean Payton is one of the best coaches in football, and while Tom Brady joining the Bucs does complicate things somewhat, the Saints should still feast on the NFC South. Their tougher non-divisional games do come at home - the Chiefs, Vikings, 49ers, and Packers. The Saints are incredibly well balanced with talent all over the roster and no clear holes to be exploited. I have them winning the NFC South yet again. Final prediction: 12-4 (3-seed).
Biggest addition: Sanders. The Saints quietly had an awesome offseason. Malcolm Jenkins will fit right in as a starter alongside Marcus Williams at safety. Sanders will produce much-needed receiving help and free up Michael Thomas to create even more big plays. Zack Baun was my favorite third-round pick and is going to make some people feel silly for looking past him. Adam Trautman was a great value and will provide Drew Brees with his first impact tight end since Jimmy Graham. However, the pick here has to be Sanders, as Drew Brees has two high-end wideouts for the first time in quite some time. An asterisk, however, must be placed in regards to Jameis Winston, as he won’t likely impact this season’s win total, but could provide a massive return on a small investment in the future.
Biggest loss: Every significant loss the Saints had was quickly rectified - Jenkins replaces Vonn Bell. Sanders replaces Tedd Ginn. Jameis Winston replaces Teddy Bridgewater. Baun replaces A.J. Klein. This roster doesn’t have any real holes and they should be a Super Bowl favorite yet again (hopefully they just won’t have to play the Vikings in the playoffs).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2020 WIN TOTAL: 9.5
SOS: #29
2019 RECORD: 7-9
SCHWARTZ: OVER
WAYNE: OVER
Schwartz: Over. This team is arguably the biggest winner of the 2020 offseason, bringing in Patriots legends Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski and drafting phenomenally. It’s unwise to bet on TB12 to stay under 10 wins, particularly with the most explosive stable of offensive weapons he’s ever had. It’s a tough division, and clashes with Kansas City, Denver, and much of the NFC North will be challenging, but the Bucs should break this over/under a few weeks before season’s end. This isn’t just about the addition of Brady and Gronk- it’s about a team unlocking potential that’s been there all along. They racked up the third-most yards of any team on offense last year, while only allowing the 15th most on defense. I really do like Jameis Winston, and think he has enormous potential in New Orleans, but it’s not a stretch to imagine that a QB who tossed 30 picks cost them a handful of wins in a season where 6 of their 9 losses were by a margin of a touchdown or less. They’ve been on the cusp of being a really solid team, as they have all the talent you could ask for on offense, a young, breakout-ready defense, and a strong veteran head coach who’s been a champion before. If there’s any hole on this roster, it’s running back, and that’s easily the best possible problem to have. If they can take one of the two division battles with the Saints (two surefire Brady-Brees classics) the Bucs would be in great position to secure the division crown in season 1 of Tompa Bay. Final prediction: 12-4 (2-seed)
Wayne: Over. At first blush, it’s very easy to pick the over after the addition of Tom Brady to the roster. However, there’s plenty more to like about this team other than adding the GOAT. The Bucs ranked 3rd in total points scored last year thanks to the league-leading duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin - they now add Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Tristan Wirfs, and Ke’Shawn Vaughn to that offense. The run defense was very good last year - 1st in total rush yards allowed - and the pass defense should improve with the addition of Antoine Winfield, perhaps my favorite safety in this year’s draft class. The Bucs have the third-lightest schedule in football this year which should enable Brady and friends to have an awesome season. A bye week in Week 13 between their two toughest games of the season, arguably - at home to the Chiefs and Vikings - is beneficial and the Bucs only have one road game against a team with a winning record in 2019 (the Saints). Bruce Arians is one of the best coaches in football, not to mention at the top of my list for guys I would want to get a beer with, and he’s going to coach the Bucs back to the playoffs this year. Final prediction: 11-5 (5-seed).
Biggest addition: Tom Brady. I know it’s the easy answer, but it’s that for a reason. This team played (and lost) a ton of tight games in 2019, and it’s not hard to imagine that with a QB who doesn’t get picked 30 (or honestly, probably even 10) times, the Bucs’ margin for error might be greater and they won’t have to play with so many late deficits. Furthermore, bringing in the GOAT immediately changes the team’s culture, and will create a championship mentality that should instill the Bucs as real contenders. Other huge adds include Brady’s pal Rob Gronkowski, who should be a highly effective red zone target even in a limited role, and Tristan Wirfs, who many viewed to be the best tackle in the draft, but will now protect Brady after falling to the Bucs. What a great offseason this team had
Biggest loss: Breshad Perriman, I guess. He’s not a huge difference-maker but no big names really left Tampa, except for Jameis, but it’s hard to consider him a loss when his departure was entirely on the team’s terms, and resulted in the arrival of Tom Brady.
Atlanta Falcons
2020 WIN TOTAL: 7.5
SOS: #1
2019 RECORD: 7-9
SCHWARTZ: Under
WAYNE: Under
Schwartz: Under. I feel bad because I actually do like the dirty birds, but the insane schedule gives me pause. They haven’t necessarily improved that much, didn’t draft particularly well, and have to deal with a new potential juggernaut entering their division, a perennial contender led by the league’s all-time leading passer, and the best offensive player in the NFL paired with a new franchise QB. Adding Todd Gurley was also one of the head-scratchers of the offseason- why add an aging, broken-down workhorse running back when you haven’t addressed the thing that really makes the ground game work, your o-line? It really doesn’t help Atlanta’s case that they play the league’s toughest schedule, pairing that aforementioned challenging divisional slate with matchups vs the balanced NFC North and the absolutely brutal AFC West. Better days are ahead, but this probably won’t be the best season in Atlanta. Final prediction: 4-12
Wayne: Under. And I don’t really feel bad about it. The Falcons have an atrocious offensive line (3rd-most sacks allowed in 2019) and a horrendous defense (23rd in yards allowed and 20th in points allowed). I would have picked the under before the schedule dropped and then we learned that the Falcons would play the toughest slate in football this year. They might go winless in their own division - they certainly won’t take more than 1 game from the Bucs/Saints. The schedule to open the year is brutal too, with the Seahawks, Cowboys, Bears, and Packers opening the year - four teams who were .500 and better last season. Road games against the Cowboys, Vikings, Packers, Saints, Chargers, and Chiefs litter the schedule. The positives for this roster - Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Todd Gurley (maybe) - aren’t enough to offset their biggest weaknesses. Final prediction: 5-11.
Biggest addition: Todd Gurley is the big-name acquisition of the offseason, but I actually think Marlon Davidson is going to end up making the biggest impact. I had the former Auburn defensive lineman graded as a first-round pick and he has an awesome combination of size, speed, and athleticism to make him an impact pass-rusher right away. Dante Fowler Jr. will also help boost the pass rush. It’s also worth noting that Chris Lindstrom, the team’s first-round pick from last season, figures to be fully healthy and ready to make a big difference on the offensive line after only playing four games in his rookie season.
Biggest loss: Austin Hooper could be the answer here after 75 catches for 787 yards and 6 touchdowns - a career year - in 2019, but I actually think Hayden Hurst may be more talented than him. Desmond Trufant, De’Vondre Campbell, Jonathan Cyprien, and Adrian Claiborne are all major losses on a defense that already wasn’t very good.
Carolina Panthers
2020 WIN TOTAL: 5.5
SOS: #8
2019 RECORD: 5-11
SCHWARTZ: Under
WAYNE: OVER
Schwartz: Under. The Panthers suck. You can’t build a team around a star running back, even if it’s Christian McCaffrey. That statement was proven last year by...the Panthers and Christian McCaffrey, as CMC put up the most ridiculous RB season imaginable, and the team was still terrible, with most of their losses actually coinciding with McCaffrey’s best performances. This is clearly a team in transition, and with a tough schedule, it’s easy to envision them coming extremely close to picking first in the 2021 draft. I like all of Teddy Bridgewater, Matt Rhule, and Joe Brady, but it’s pretty evident that the moves the Panthers have made this offseason are future-oriented and do not point towards a competitive 2020 season. They drafted strongly (and often) on defense this year, but young defensive players often need time to develop, especially when so many are entering at the same time, not to mention during an abbreviated offseason. The Panthers will be a winning team pretty soon, but not this year, and definitely not against this schedule. Final prediction: 4-12
Wayne: Over. It’s going to be a whole lot of new in Carolina. New quarterback (Teddy Bridgewater), new head coach (Matt Rhule), new offensive coordinator (Joe Brady). And an entirely new defensive roster after the team lost 9 (!!) starters or key rotation players on that side of the ball. Their most important loss was Luke Kuechly, of course, but Mario Addison, Vernon Butler, Bruce Irvin, Kyle Love, James Bradberry, Ross Cockrell, Colin Jones, and Eric Reid were all significant contributors in 2019. However, the Panthers had the second-worst defense in terms of points against last year so perhaps a complete overhaul is just what the doctor ordered. The Panthers spent all of their seven draft picks on defensive players, and Derrick Brown, Yetur Gross-Matos, and Jeremy Chinn profile as day one starters. Meanwhile, the offense should see a bump up with steady QB play from Bridgewater and the dynamic offensive play-calling of Joe Brady who just led LSU to a historic offensive season and recently coached the Saints’ prolific offense. Four total games against the Saints and Buccaneers (Drew Brees and Tom Brady) puts a damper on their outlook for this season, and road games against the Packers, Vikings, and Chiefs will have Carolina as likely double-digit underdogs. However, I find it hard to believe that their offseason overhaul won’t have this team massively improved and Christian McCaffrey wins a couple of games by himself. I’ll take the over. Final prediction: 6-10.
Biggest addition: The Panthers had a massive offseason of transition, but their biggest get may actually be in the coaching staff with Matt Rhule and Joe Brady - these two should incorporate plenty of spread offense schemes and help the Panthers improve. Derrick Brown and Yetur Gross-Matos should be high-impact defenders as rookies, Robby Anderson will stretch the field for an underrated offensive attack, and Teddy Bridgewater will provide stability at quarterback.
Biggest loss: It’s hard to give any answer here other than Luke Kuechly, who has been this team’s unquestioned leader and best player for the better part of a decade. He’s the best middle linebacker of our generation (all due respect to Bobby Wagner) and he’ll be sorely missed in Carolina and by the whole NFL.
