NFL Win Totals O/U - AFC South
By: Wayne and Schwartz
Indianapolis Colts
2020 WIN TOTAL: 8.5
SOS: #32
2019 RECORD: 7-9
SCHWARTZ: OVER
WAYNE: OVER
Schwartz: Over. I absolutely love this Colts team. They will likely be healthier, and drafted really well. They were blindsided last season by Andrew Luck’s shock retirement (still kills me) and still got off to a very strong start until they were further blindsided by a disgusting litany of injuries and they began to lose a lot of close games. Indy also had an absolutely fantastic offseason, grabbing a superstar in DeForest Buckner to address one of their weaknesses from 2019, bringing in a steady veteran QB in Philip Rivers, and buying low on a former All-Pro in Xavier Rhodes, all of which play impact positions. They will be better, they can win the division, and they might even win the AFC. Final prediction: 11-5 (2-seed)
Wayne: Schwartz and I share our Colts love this season. I love that Philip Rivers is reunited with Frank Reich, under whom he had the most statistically productive seasons of his career. I love that the offensive line should yet again be one of the best in the league. I love that the defense will be much-improved after adding Buckner and Rhodes to a squad that already featured Justin Houston, Darius Leonard, and Malik Hooker. I love that their schedule slots their toughest games - Vikings, Packers, Ravens - at home. I love that they have the easiest schedule in the NFL according to projected win totals for each team. The Colts won 7 games last year despite a ton of difficult off-field circumstances and drafted incredibly well to bolster a roster that’s ready to compete. Final prediction: 10-6.
Biggest addition: Buckner. The trade for the Niners’ star d-lineman signaled that the Colts are in win-now mode, and he is an instant and enormous upgrade for Indy’s front seven. No-brainer here, which is saying something since the Colts added a QB1 (Philip Rivers) and a former first-team All-Pro cornerback (Xavier Rhodes) as well as drafting one of the most prolific college backs of all time (Jonathan Taylor) and their potential QB of the future (Jacob Eason). Michael Pittman was also one of the most underrated receivers in a wildly talented class. Still, Buckner is one of the biggest talents to move this offseason and will have the largest impact (save for Rivers) on what Indy accomplishes this season.
Biggest loss: Pierre Desir. The Colts will miss their starting corner after a solid 2019 campaign. Devin Funchess, Dontrelle Inman, Chester Rogers, and Eric Ebron are pass-catchers who have recently made an impact but aren’t needle-movers. Still, there’s really no loss that comes close to putting a damper on the embarrassment of riches that Chris Ballard brought into Indy this summer.
Tennessee Titans
2020 WIN TOTAL: 8.5
SOS: #30
2019 RECORD: 9-7
SCHWARTZ: OVER
WAYNE: Under
Schwartz: Over. Tough one! The Titans should not be as good as their late-2019 selves, but their 9-7 record from last year was dragged down by a rough start. This is a well-rounded, solid team that plays a consistently challenging but not impossible schedule. It will be a close one, but this team should be better than .500, particularly against a schedule that, after featuring a tough opening sequence, becomes one of the softest in football. The Titans might be in for another slow start followed by a strong playoff push, and we all know what happens when they get hot. Final prediction: 9-7 (7-seed)
Wayne: Under. The Titans could be 1-4 or 2-3 after starting the season against the Broncos, Jaguars, Vikings, Steelers, and Bills. Their bye week (Week 7) comes earlier than I’m sure they would like, and the Titans have a few tough road games late in the season (at Ravens, at Colts, at Packers, at Texans). The AFC South is incredibly well-balanced and the Titans shouldn’t expect to go better than 3-3 in-division. Recency bias dictates that this team improve on their 9-7 record after an impressive playoff run (beating the Patriots and Ravens) but I’m concerned with the amount of quality defensive players they lost. The Titans feel like a team that will be competitive all year but lose a lot of close games and I’m not sure I buy into Ryan Tannehill repeating his success from last season. This offense could be pretty one-dimensional and unless it’s backed by a defense that can keep games close, which may not be the case, it could be a more difficult season for Tennessee. Final prediction: 7-9.
Biggest addition: Vic Beasley. This was an especially important get after the team traded away Jurrell Casey over the offseason. It seems like it was forever ago that Beasley led the NFL with 15.5 sacks and was a First-Team All-Pro guy, but perhaps a change in scenery will do him some good. (They’re also adding Jadeveon Clowney- it just isn’t public info yet). Isaiah Wilson was also an important addition after losing…
Biggest loss: Jack Conklin. The right tackle was a massive part of the team’s ground game-based offensive success in 2019, and he’ll be sorely missed as a road-grader. Jurrell Casey, Wesley Woodyard, Cameron Wake, and Logan Ryan are all no longer on the roster, but the Titans will hope they drafted well enough to cover up those holes.
Houston Texans
2020 WIN TOTAL: 7.5
SOS: #10
2019 RECORD: 10-6
SCHWARTZ: OVER
WAYNE: Under
Schwartz: Over. Tough one also! This is a really tight division and the Texans performance within division games could determine their overall success. Losing DeAndre Hopkins is rough, they drafted abysmally, and Bill O’Brien’s leadership is more and more questionable every day. The point is, they will be worse than last year but quarterbacks of Deshaun Watson’s caliber rarely have a losing season, and I refuse to believe that someone with both a consistent winning mentality and extremely high talent would be the exception to the rule. The schedule is no fun, but the team has the most important piece of success: a do-it-all franchise quarterback with a penchant for winning the tough, ugly games (see: wild card weekend, 2019-20 season). Final prediction: 8-8.
Wayne: Under. The Texans are going to be a popular under bet after being exposed by the Chiefs in the playoffs and trading away DeAndre Hopkins over the offseason. However, I’m more concerned with the seemingly degrading culture in Houston. I really feel that energy can dictate a team’s entire season and things are already shaky with the Texans. The start of their schedule against the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, and Vikings could have them 1-3 or 0-4 which could derail an already unstable team culture. Deshaun Watson could make this all look silly but the team’s defense allowed the 4th-most total yards last year and they didn’t make any major moves which should help them improve on that end. We’ve never seen what Watson looks like without his favorite target and I don’t love Bill O’Brien as a coach. While there’s plenty to like in Indy, there’s plenty to dislike in Houston, and that top-ten difficulty in strength of schedule is the kicker. I’m out on this team. Final prediction: 6-10.
Biggest addition: Randall Cobb. They had to replace Hopkins (more on that next) and they tried- twice! Cobb and Brandin Cooks are both poor stand-ins for Nuk, but Cobb is not nearly as depressing as the former Saint-Patriot-Ram who seems to be moved for a first round pick every year somehow.
Biggest loss: Hopkins. Bill OB moved off the best receiver in the NFL for peanuts in a puzzling move, one we have just recently begun to gain clarity on. Reasoning aside, however, Hopkins is a huge football loss, as his steady greatness has been a key part of Deshaun Watson’s rise to NFL stardom Jonathan Joseph, Jaheel Addae, and Mike Adams depart from what was already an overmatched secondary, but that pales in comparison to the loss of Nuk.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2020 WIN TOTAL: 5
SOS: #18
2019 RECORD: 6-10
SCHWARTZ: Push
WAYNE: Under
Schwartz: Push. They went 6-10 last year, and were only riding the Minshew Magic for ¾ of the season. Memes aside, Gardner is a really solid passer and showed the traits of a winning NFL QB all season long. The Jags also gifted him a strong athlete in Laviska Shenault, who will be a great #2 behind DJ Chark, and they also addressed their defense with a really nice draft. However, the defense that kept them in a lot of Minshew’s magical wins took some big hits through the losses of Calais Campbell, A.J. Bouye, Marcell Dareus and Jake Ryan, all contributors from last season and beyond. I do expect gardner and the whole offense to make positive strides throughout the year, and don’t see them as a first-pick candidate as many analysts do, but after looking hard at their schedule, I’m pretty set on a total of 5 wins for the Jags. I like this team, I like where they’re headed, but this isn’t their year. Final prediction: 5-11
Wayne: Under. If you’ve known me for long enough you know I absolutely love Gardner Minshew. I own an embarrassing amount of Minshew merch and the former Wash St. passer is one of my favorite dudes in the NFL. That makes what I’m about to say really tough. The Jaguars suck. They already finished 24th in total yards allowed and 21st in points against, and then they lost A.J. Bouye, Calais Campbell, Marcell Dareus, and Jake Ryan. Sure, they drafted some exciting rookies, but it’s going to be difficult to overcome that lost production. Yannick Ngakowue also appears to have one foot out the door and the Jags have been trying to toss out Leonard Fournette like he’s soiled milk. There seems to be a culture problem with the issues with those two guys as well as Jalen Ramsey; Doug Marrone is clearly on the hot seat after the team won a combined 11 games the past two years. It feels like eons ago that the Jaguars were in the AFC Championship game and there’s been a steady erosion of roster talent ever since. I love me some Gardner Minshew, but there’s too many negatives for him to overcome. Final prediction: 4-12.
Biggest addition: The Jaguars didn’t have any major free agency acquisitions, but they drafted better than just about anyone this year. C.J. Henderson, K’Lavon Chaisson, and Laviska Shenault are all instant-impact starters for the Jags. Henderson and Chaisson will help them recover from recent defensive losses and Shenault is an elite athlete who would have been a first-round pick if not for durability concerns.
Biggest loss: Calais Campbell. As we discussed in the Ravens portion, Campbell is an enormous difference-maker. Financially and contractually, it made sense for both sides to move on, but on the field, he will be an extremely painful loss for the Jags. It’s also worth noting that other defensive starters in Marcell Dareus, Jake Ryan, and A.J. Bouye are no longer on the roster.
