Cam Newton to the Patriots

Cam Newton agreed to a one-year $7.5 million contract with the Patriots on Sunday

On Sunday, Cam Newton agreed to a one-year contract worth up to $7.5 million with the New England Patriots. After letting franchise GOAT Tom Brady walk over the offseason, the starting quarterback position was up in the air heading into the 2020-21 season. 2019 4th-round pick Jarrett Stidham was the heir apparent, with Brian Hoyer his likely backup. Now, Cam Newton throws the team’s quarterback room into an air of uncertainty.

Newton was a solid starter for nine seasons for the Carolina Panthers, earning a 68-55-1 record and making three Pro Bowls along the way. The peak of his “Superman” powers came in 2015 as he won the MVP award with 35 passing touchdowns to just 10 interceptions and rushed for 10 touchdowns as well. His career completion rate sits at 59.6% and he has 182 career touchdowns to 108 interceptions.

This week, you’re going to see the national media blow up with Cam Newton hype, and it makes sense as to why. In such a dormant sports landscape, what could possibly be more exciting than a former MVP-winning quarterback joining the franchise that has won three Super Bowls in the past six seasons? Plenty of pundits will throw out flaming hot takes this week ranging from the Patriots being Super Bowl contenders to Newton not even making the roster. The truth, as it is with most things, lies somewhere in between the two extremes.

The most recent play we’ve seen from Cam Newton left a ton to be desired. In 2019, the Panthers’ quarterback suffered an injury to his foot in a preseason game against, ironically, the Patriots. It was initially diagnosed as a sprain, but eventually team doctors realized they had misdiagnosed the star QB and he had actually suffered a Lisfranc injury. In the two games he did play, Newton posted a 48.5 offensive rating per PFF - this made him the 51st best quarterback in the NFL, just ahead of Mason Rudolph and Jeff Driskel. Of course, the injury had a ton to do with his poor play, and Newton was placed on Injured Reserve on November 5th, ending his 2019 season.

Image pulled from OrthoInfo

Unfortunately for Newton, it’s unclear how much he’ll be able to recover from his Lisfranc injury. According to OrthoInfo, “The Lisfranc joint complex includes the bones and ligaments that connect the midfoot and forefoot. Lisfranc injuries include ligament strains and tears as well as fractures and dislocations of the bone (far right).” Oftentimes, athletes never regain their pre-injury level of play after suffering a Lisfranc injury. Even with modern technology and medicine providing excellent care, athletes often suffer long-lasting damage to the cartilage in their foot which can cause arthritis and chronic pain.

It’s unclear how Newton has done with rehabbing from his foot injury, but for a player who has been heavily dependent on his athleticism and physicality, it’s concerning to say the least. Cam has also suffered from other injuries in recent years including a knee strain and damage to his throwing shoulder which required surgery. According to SportsInjuryPredictor, Newton is a high risk for injury in 2020 - the website places his risk at about 45%.

Cam Newton won the MVP award in 2015, leading the Panthers to a 15-1 record and a Super Bowl appearance

There’s little doubt that a fully healthy Cam Newton can be one of the flashiest quarterbacks in the NFL. However, his charismatic persona and high-upside athleticism haven’t always translated to statistical success. In 2018, his last mostly-full season, he played 14 games and produced 3,395 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, and 13 interceptions as well as 488 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns - check out his full stats here. However, PFF ranked him as just the 24th-best quarterback that season.

That type of mediocre production isn’t so out of the ordinary for Newton - if you take out his 2015 MVP season (5th-best QB on PFF), his average finish among QBs on PFF has been the 25th-best in the NFL since his rookie season in 2011. Other than 2015, he has never finished higher than 17th among all QBs. Now, with likely limited athleticism due to his recent set of injuries, I’m not sure I buy into him beating out a career of decent, but far from elite, production.

Also working against Newton is the fact that the Patriots figure to have one of the worst sets of pass-catching weapons in the NFL in 2020. The Patriots drafted N’Keal Harry in the first round of last year’s draft, but his rookie season was forgettable - he only played in seven games after suffering an ankle injury in training camp and caught 12 passes for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns. Harry is certainly a physical prospect, but it’s tough to know what to expect from him in his sophomore season.

Julian Edelman had 100 receptions for 1,117 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2019

When he’s at his best, Julian Edelman is clearly a top-five or so slot receiver, but the Pats’ lack of speed and explosiveness over the top limits his productivity. According to Matt Harmon’s reception perception, Edelman had the sixth-worst success rate against double team coverage, something he may have to deal with more in 2020. Newton is also just not nearly as accurate of a thrower as Brady was. The Patriots’ offensive scheme emphasizes slot receivers playing over the middle of the field, which Brady was able to excel with, but Cam has always been more efficient in vertical passing and throwing outside the numbers. This will require a shift in philosophy from Josh McDaniels, which is made harder by the lack of weaponry on the roster.

Outside of Edelman and Harry, the Patriots will have to rely on Mohamed Sanu, who only had 207 yards in eight games with the team last season, and Marqise Lee, who has a career 56.9% catch rate. Neither of these players figure to be particularly impactful. It’s worth noting that James White is one of the better pass-catchers on the roster - he earned the 7th-best receiving grade among all RBs last season per PFF. Free-agency signing Damiere Byrd is the only sub-4.4 40-yard-dash receiver on the roster, making this one of the slowest offenses in football. That makes this a poor fit for Newton, who relies on speed and athleticism from his receivers to get open.

The Patriots had basically no production from their tight end group last season - Ben Watson paced the crew with 17 catches for 173 yards and is no longer on the team. Matt LaCosse, who has never had more than 24 catches or 250 yards in a season, projects as the starter. The Pats did address this position in the draft with Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene, but rookie tight ends rarely produce at a high level. The Patriots’ offensive line ranked 10th last season per PFF and should be improved after getting starting center David Andrews back from an injury which kept him out of the entire 2019 season.

The last time we saw Cam Newton on a football field, he was benefitting from the presence of players like Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Greg Olsen, Curtis Samuel, Ian Thomas, and Devin Funchess. Needless to say, the Patriots’ poor skill position talent won’t approach that level of production. For Cam Newton, who will likely already be facing limited athleticism due to nagging injuries, the lack of receiving talent on the roster is not a great sign.

The Patriots’ offense hasn’t shown the type of high-level ability needed to support Cam Newton in 2020

I’m not confident that Cam Newton is going to be around long-term for the Patriots. Jarrett Stidham was receiving some awesome praise from people around the organization and Newton’s contract doesn’t suggest a ton of confidence in the veteran QB. Even if he reaches all of the incentives the franchise has laid out for him, he would only earn $7.5 million - the 27th most among all QBs.

It’s also worth noting that if he leaves the team following this season, the Patriots would be awarded a 3rd-round compensatory pick. This is especially important because on Sunday afternoon, the NFL announced it would be penalizing the Patriots for accusations of filming the Bengals’ sideline during the Browns-Bengals game last season. The Pats lost $1.1 million in fines as well as a future 3rd-round pick - this signing could bring a 3rd-round pick back to the team. I don’t buy into a significant long-term future for Newton in New England.

The 2021 NFL draft features one of the best classes of quarterbacks of the decade. Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and Ohio State’s Justin Fields are likely going to be the top two picks in the draft, and other names like Trey Lance, Brock Purdy, Jamie Newman, Sam Howell, Kellen Mond, KJ Costello, and Sam Ehlinger figure to be early-round picks. The drop-off from those first two names is significant, though, and if Cam Newton is good enough to win more than a handful of games this season, they could miss out on their next franchise QB. However, it never really felt like head coach/GM extraordinaire Bill Belichick had tanking in him.

As of Monday morning, the Patriots now have the 7th-highest Super Bowl odds per Vegas Insider, coming in at +1700. That places them ahead of teams like the Eagles, Seahawks, Colts, and Steelers, who I’m much more confident in this season. The Patriots also have the 3rd-highest odds to win the AFC Championship at +700 and come in at +100 to win their division.

I believe there’s money to be made on the Patriots this season. The team’s win total now sits at 9.5 for this season, which I am taking a firm under on. In addition to all-time great Tom Brady, the Patriots lost five defensive starters in Danny Shelton, Elandon Roberts, Jamie Collins, Kyle Van Noy, and Duron Harmon. They figure to be worse on both sides of the ball in 2020, and they also play the 11th-toughest schedule in the NFL this season with the AFC and NFC West both on the docket (featuring the two Super Bowl contestants from last season, as well as their numerous strong division rivals).

In addition to a bet on the Patriots’ under, I like their odds to miss the playoffs this season. Depending on how the betting market reacts, they could approach +200 odds to miss the postseason - I’m all in at that number. The Patriots are clearly a worse team from last season and play in a division with three teams which should all be improved. It feels like it’s been a lifetime since the Patriots were not one of the top Super Bowl favorites, but I don’t see them being in that conversation this season. Cam Newton, coming off injuries and playing in a poor offense, isn’t the guy to make that happen.

Bill Belichick has plenty to prove this season as he attempts to replace Tom Brady with Cam Newton