Dark Horse Candidates to Win Every NFL Award
By: Wayne and Schwartz
Hey Wayne's World friends, Schwartz and Wayne here. We realize the country is hurting at the moment and we'd be remiss if we didn't at least acknowledge the fact that this is such a tough time for so many people. We're going to keep producing content for you on this page to hopefully keep you entertained and serve as a distraction from the problems this country is facing. Today, we've each picked two under-the-radar or dark-horse candidates for each of the major NFL awards who we think could have a chance to win. Odds are pulled from FanDuel sportsbook and we made the cutoff +2000 for our dark horse candidates. We hope you enjoy.
Most Valuable Player
Wayne - Drew Lock (+6500): The Broncos may have found their franchise quarterback in 2019 as the former Missouri QB led Denver to a 4-1 record in his 5 starts. He threw for 1,020 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions which would have been a 16-game pace of 3,264 yards, 22.4 touchdowns, and 9.6 interceptions. Those aren’t exactly world-beating numbers, but for a rookie who had never run a pro-style offense, his production was impressive. Things should only get better this season with an improved offensive line - the Broncos get back a healthy Ja’Wuan James, signed Graham Glasgow in free agency, and drafted Lloyd Cushenbery. The additions of Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy, and KJ Hamler should help open up the offense as well. Lock already had a go-to receiver in place with Courtland Sutton (PFF’s 10th-best wideout in 2019). The addition of Pat Shurmur as the team’s new offensive coordinator should also help with Lock’s ascension. The Broncos will need to win the AFC West and knock off Patrick Mahomes’s Chiefs, which doesn’t seem very likely on paper - hence the long odds for Lock. However, with the elite talent around him and him being a rising talent himself, Drew Lock could shock the world this season and compete for the MVP.
Schwartz - Kyler Murray (+2300): Although the Cardinals’ franchise QB may be small in stature, he might have the largest amount of pure talent of any passer in the entire league. He was solid as a rookie but didn’t put up the gaudy numbers that really turn heads, and moreover, the team wasn’t all that successful. However, he was named Offensive Rookie of the Year, and the next logical personal goal for him to turn his focus on is the MVP, football’s biggest individual award. Kyler was given an enormous gift this offseason; DeAndre Hopkins, arguably football’s best wideout, to go along with an already-talented wideout group and a coach (Kliff Kingsbury) who is always looking to get the ball in the air. They also drafted Josh Jackson, a true steal I might add, to help protect their diminutive, yet critical, investment. This team would need to make the playoffs to give Kyler even the slightest chance of taking home the award, but that is a distinct possibility in a tough but vulnerable NFC West, where there are solid teams but every game is very winnable for this team. There are also not many true locks for the NFC wild-card spots, and if Kyler is able to lead the Cards to the 5-seed while putting legitimate pressure on the Niners in the West, he has a real chance to win this award.
Wayne - Matt Ryan (+4400): The veteran Falcons’ quarterback won the MVP award in 2016 at the helm of an awesome roster. Kyle Shanahan certainly helped as the offensive coordinator that season - he’s now the 49ers head coach - but the talent surrounding Ryan this season in Atlanta may be the best of his career. PFF had Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley both ranked as top-30 receivers last year, but that doesn’t even do justice to how elite this wideout duo can be. Julio had gone over 1,400 yards in 6 straight seasons before last year (was 6 yards off in 2019). Ridley still has yet to exceed 1,000 yards in a season, but he was drafted in the 1st round and is no doubt an elite talent at his position. Austin Hooper departs for the Browns after 75 catches for 787 yards, but Hayden Hurst will do just fine as his replacement - he was PFF’s 12th-ranked tight end in 2019 although he didn’t see the field too often behind Mark Andrews in Baltimore. With Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary entering their sophomore seasons after being first-round picks last year, the right side of the offensive line should be vastly improved in 2020. If the offensive line can do a better job keeping him upright, Ryan has the potential to lead the league in passing yards this year, especially with how often his team will be trailing thanks to a defense that ranked 23rd in points allowed per game last year.
Schwartz - Matthew Stafford (+4400): 5,000 yards, 38 Touchdowns, 10 interceptions. Those are some numbers that get you squarely within the MVP conversation, and they’re the ones that Stafford was on pace to put up if he didn’t miss the second half of the 2019 season. Furthermore, he had led the Lions to a very competitive 3-4-1 start that featured a number of tight losses, and the team spiraled to an 0-8 finish after his departure. In a division in flux, Stafford and the Lions could fill the power vacuum and surge to a playoff berth behind a year of similarly solid play. Normally, a lower team win total disqualifies a player from MVP consideration, but I would imagine that given the general struggles that the Lions have experienced, sneaking the team into the playoffs with any winning record, while keeping his level of play as high as it was in 2019, Stafford will at least be getting some MVP buzz come February. His numbers received a boost last year via the addition of Darrell Bevell as the offensive coordinator, after he held that position for several seasons in Seattle, helping to facilitate the rise of Russell Wilson and create a potent offense with very little true star-power. I don’t expect the Lions to have a successful season. But if they do, it’s because of their quarterback, and he should be recognized for it.
Offensive Player of the Year
Wayne - Nick Chubb (+4400): What happens when an incredibly skilled football player meets a coach who knows exactly how to utilize him? Usually some pretty incredible things. Dalvin Cook’s 2019 Pro-Bowl campaign is the perfect example. The former Florida State running back put up 1,654 combined yards and 13 touchdowns in just 14 games. Kevin Stefanski was largely responsible for devising a scheme that utilized Cook’s talent in the perfect way. Stefanski now heads to Cleveland where he will take over an offense with plenty of talent. Perhaps the most talented player on the Browns’ roster is Nick Chubb. PFF absolutely adores the former Georgia running back, ranking him 2nd among all running backs (min. 200 carries) in elusive rating and first in breakaway percentage in 2019. Chubb was also PFF’s #1-ranked runner last year - yes, ranking higher than Christian McCaffrey. The last running back to win Offensive Player of the Year was Todd Gurley in 2017 - the former Rams’ runner put up 2,093 combined yards and 19 combined touchdowns. Chubb put up some career-best production last year with 1,494 rushing yards on 298 carries. He ranked second in the NFL in carries inside the 10-yard line, so 8 touchdowns was likely on the low-end - he could see some positive regression here. Stefanski also likes to involve his running backs in the passing game with screens, slants, and hitches, so Chubb should be due for a career-high in receptions (his previous best was in 2019 with 36 catches). Yes, the Browns do have Kareem Hunt in the backfield to compete with Chubb, but they’ve talked about wanting to use him more as a slot receiver than a running back this year. The Browns will likely be a top-five team in rushing attempts this year under Stefanski and Chubb will be the one to benefit - I currently have him ranked second in the league in rushing yards behind Derrick Henry.
Schwartz - Tyreek Hill (+6500): Tyreek Hill is a touchdown waiting to happen, on every snap, completely regardless of field position. At +6500, he’s just too good of a value to ignore as a pick for offensive player of the year. This year, Michael Thomas became the first wideout since Jerry Rice in the early 90’s to garner Offensive Player of the Year honors, setting a new precedent and opening the door for more of the NFL’s hyper-talented group of pass-catchers to step up and win this award. True, Thomas had to put up historic numbers for a fantastic team to do so, but Hill has the opportunity to do both of those things, and likely top Thomas’s surprisingly low total of 9 touchdowns. Tyreek is never going to catch 150 balls like Mike did, but he can set records for average yardage, explosive plays, or any number of statistics that represent his unique, game-breaking ability. Patrick Mahomes is only getting more experienced, Andy Reid more confident, and the Chiefs will be in a litany of close games this season as they navigate a meat-grinder of a schedule, creating a perfect storm for the league’s most unique offensive talent to have a wildly productive campaign.
Wayne - Chris Godwin (+4100): The former Penn State wide receiver enjoyed a massive breakout season in 2019, putting up 1,333 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns in just 14 games. He was PFF’s 2nd-best receiver last year behind only Michael Thomas, who broke the record for the best completion percentage of all time for the second-straight year. Godwin caught 86 of his 87 catchable targets, dropping just one for the lowest drop rate in the NFL other than future HOFer Larry Fitzgerald. However, Godwin had 28 total uncatchable targets and plenty of others which were not perfect as Jameis Winston was erratic for most of 2019. Godwin should benefit from the arrival of Tom Brady in Tampa Bay as he will now be catching passes from a future HOFer and likely the best quarterback in NFL history. Brady was PFF’s 12th-best QB last year while Winston was only ranked 29th. One area where Godwin may be hampered by the switch at QB is in deep passing - Winston led the NFL in deep passing attempts last year while Brady was outside of the top 12 in that category - this could limit Godwin’s YPR upside. His efficiency should be much improved this year, though, and 1,500 yards with 12 receiving touchdowns shouldn’t really be outside the realm of possibilities.
Schwartz - Dalvin Cook (+2400): The Vikings had a rough offseason, as they lost Stefon Diggs as well as Offensive Coordinator Kevin Stefanski. However, none of their division rivals have really improved, and the North is theirs for the taking. Without Diggs and Stefanski, expect the Vikes to take what has become a rare approach in today’s NFL, and ride a strong rushing attack to the postseason. When he’s been healthy, Cook has been absolutely lethal, averaging over 4.5 yards a carry in each of his pro seasons, and this past season, racking up over 1100 yards and 13 touchdowns in just 14 appearances. If he’s able to win the NFL’s rushing crown- a distinct possibility since the Cowboys seem poised to move to the air, the Panthers could take touches away from CMC to protect their new, massive investment, and Derrick Henry is the very definition of a regression candidate - and lead the Vikings to a home playoff game, there’s no reason to ignore the Florida State product as a candidate for this award.
Defensive Player of the Year
Wayne - Calais Campbell (+4200): The former Miami defensive end has long been one of my favorite defensive players in football and it saddened me deeply when he chose the Jacksonville Jaguars over his hometown and my beloved Denver Broncos back in 2017. At 6’8”, 300 lbs, Campbell is an absolute physical freak and he’s been dominant over his decade-plus in the NFL with 88 career sacks, 14 forced fumbles, and 3 touchdowns. In his career, he’s been a 5-time Pro Bowler, 2-time Second-Team All-Pro, and one-time First-Team All-Pro. Among all interior defenders last year, Campbell ranked third on PFF. He tied for first in QB hits, ranked third in total hurries, but only managed six sacks. Now on the Ravens, Campbell will be surrounded by the most defensive talent of his career. Baltimore has some excellent secondary coverage between Earl Thomas, Marcus Peters, Marlon Humphery, and Jimmy Smith - that support on the back-end will give Campbell even more time to get to the opposing QB. The Jaguars ranked 26th in pass coverage last year while the Ravens ranked 7th, per PFF. Surrounded by elite defensive talent, the career 3-time All-Pro Calais Campbell has the opportunity to reach double-digit sacks and earn the first DPOY of his career.
Schwartz - Tre’Davious White (+2900): I’m going to be honest, White was my late-season pick for this award last year. I stood in Gillette Stadium and watched him dominate the Patriots in a key divisional matchup, while actual winner Stephon Gilmore almost lost the game by allowing his only touchdown of the year, a back-breaking 53 yard home run. White, however, was at his best in the biggest game of the year, even if his team fell short. He didn’t allow a touchdown last season, tied Gilmore for the league lead in picks, and defended 17 passes, good for fifth in the league, en route to allowing the sixth-lowest passer rating of any corner (46.3). The narrative is also there, as the Bills will almost certainly need to ride a stifling defense if they want to seize the division after the departure of Tom Brady, and they will need White to remove talented wideouts from the game if they’re going to do that. In my estimation, White was good enough to earn this award a year ago - don’t be stunned if he’s just as effective again, and this time with a division title under his belt.
Wayne - Jamal Adams (+3300): There aren’t enough adjectives to describe how incredible a football player Adams is. The NFL is stacked with elite athletes - that’s a given with football being the most popular sport in the United States. What allows great athletes to become special players is preparation and mental aptitude. Adams sets the standard at the safety position in that regard and watching him dominate with pre-snap adjustments and mid-play reads is a thing of beauty. There’s nothing that Adams doesn’t do well on the football field. He profiles as an in-the-box hard-hitting safety/linebacker hybrid, and he dominates in the run game - he ranked third in tackling efficiency among safeties last year per PFF, just behind Justin Simmons and Kevin Byard. Adams is also a force in pass coverage, though, ranking fifth in the NFL in total yards allowed among players with at least 450 snaps in pass coverage. There’s nothing that Adams can’t do to help his team win and he sets himself apart as the best safety in football with the way he dissects the game mentally. The Jets defense has plenty of talent and they certainly have an opportunity to make the playoffs in a weak AFC East. If they do, the narrative would be on the side of Adams, as would the fact that he’ll put up some monstrous numbers along the way.
Schwartz - Minkah Fitzpatrick (+2900): The Steelers, in a shocking turn of events, will also need to play strong defensive football if they’re going to have a successful season. While there’s a lot of talent on their defense, there’s arguably nobody whose performance will tell their story than their do-it-all safety. Minkah combines an ability to immediately read a quarterback with run-stopping ability that PFF estimates to be the third-best among all safeties - even better than Jamal Adams. Since his arrival from Miami, Fitzpatrick has been a key cog of the Pittsburgh defense, as he has been freed from a more focused box safety role, to one where he is able to help the team in a variety of ways. The presence of a star front-seven player in T.J. Watt gives me pause, as it will be a challenge for Fizpatrick to outshine such a franchise cornerstone. Still, his high level of talent and importance to the team make Minkah a serious candidate for Defensive Player of the Year.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Wayne - Laviska Shenault (+3300): Here’s what I wrote about Shenault heading into the NFL draft: “He is a physically dominant player, utilizing his huge frame to body defenders for contested catches as well as break tackles after the catch. Shenault looks like a running back in the open field, using power and balance to pick up extra yards. Shenault has the upside to be the best receiver in this class with his physical tools, but his injury history and lack of polish could cause him to fall to the back of the first round.” Needless to say, I was pretty surprised that a guy who I thought might be the best pure talent at the wide receiver position in this year’s draft was still on the board for the Jaguars with their third selection. Sure, D.J. Chark will likely enter the year as the team’s top wideout after a breakout campaign, but I think Shenault is the better talent. Gardner Minshew is one of my favorite QBs in football - his deep-ball accuracy was better than Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, and Kyler Murray last year. The Jaguars will likely be down in games pretty often with how poor their defense should be. CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy are the big names at receiver heading into this season, but they play in crowded offenses and I’m not sure if they’ll be instant-impact players. I expect Shenault to start right away, and if he can stay on the field for 16 games, he could be one of the big stories as a 1,000-yard rookie.
Schwartz - Cam Akers (+2000): Of all of the longshots to win this award, Akers offers something unique- a nearly-guaranteed starting role. After the decline and subsequent departure of Todd Gurley, the Florida State alum is poised to take the lead in the Los Angeles backfield this season. The sheer bulk of touches he will get as compared to other candidates, as well as his high talent level, make him an attractive option for this award, as he has a chance to accumulate counting statistics that few other rookies this season do. The Rams are in a bit of a downswing but will continue to be a high-scoring offense. Akers figures to get into the end zone a number of times during his rookie campaign, always a big boost in the hunt for Rookie of the Year honors. It will help Akers’s case if the Rams play from ahead more than I expect them to, as he will be their workhorse back who helps grind away clock and put games to bed. There are certainly reasons to imagine that other rookies may be more productive, as LA might look to the air more than the ground this year, but Akers is a high talent in a starting job, which is nothing if not a formula for success in year 1.
Wayne - Zack Moss (+5500): The former Utah running back was perhaps my favorite player at his position in this year’s class, but he predictably got pushed to the wayside in favor of more high-profile names from high-profile schools in Clyde Edwards-Helaire, D’Andre Swift, and Jonathan Taylor. Moss is an incredibly physical runner who is tough to bring down - he broke 0.33 tackles per rush attempt over his three seasons as the starter at Utah, the third-best rate in the nation over that span. He was also much-improved as a pass-catcher in his final season at Utah, averaging 14.5 yards per reception in 2019 and dropping just one pass on his 31 targets. Yes, Devin Singletary is the presumed starter heading into this season, but Moss is more of a complete running back and the two complement each other very well. Frank Gore had 179 touches on this team last year and the addition of Stefon Diggs to the passing game should only create more space in the middle of the field as well as more red-zone opportunities for the offense. A 36-year-old Gore had 13 carries inside the 5-yard line last season and only managed 1 touchdown with them - it’s not hard to imagine Moss faring much better than this. Sure, he will be hard-pressed to see more than 200 carries in what should be a true timeshare alongside Singletary, but I love Moss’s talent and he’s a dark horse to break out for a Bills team that really wants to establish the ground game this season.
Schwartz - A.J. Dillon (+7500): While Dillon doesn’t have a starting job, what he does have is an insane level of talent. When he was healthy at Boston College, he was an undeniable force, breaking off massive runs both on the outside and between the tackles. If he’s able to stay on the field, he is the very definition of a workhorse back at 6 feet tall and nearly 250 pounds, and is still able to be quick enough to clock a 4.53 second 40-yard dash at the combine. Simply put, Dillon immediately enters the league as one of the best athletes at the running back position, and has already shown the polish of a pro halfback. Aaron Jones is a fixture in the Green Bay backfield, but a healthy Dillon could steal a good amount of touches, particularly near the goal line, as he has a much more imposing frame than Jones and offers the Packers a much better push into the end zone. He is the darkest horse I discuss in this article, a true long shot, but he has the ability to shine if he’s given the ball enough.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Wayne - Antoine Winfield (+3800): In my mock draft heading into this year’s draft, I had Antoine Winfield as the Buccaneers’ first-round pick. While I knew this wasn’t particularly likely, I thought he perfectly fit their roster and scheme. I also absolutely love his talent and if he hadn’t missed extensive time with injuries in 2017 and 2018 I believe he would have been a first-round lock. Winfield is an instant-impact in-the-box safety who has a tremendous ability to read the game and find the ball. He’s the hardest-hitting safety in this year’s draft class and should be a vicious tackler and turnover-forcing machine. I had him comped to T.J. Ward, the former Bucs’ safety, and I can see him having a similar impact as a roamer who can make plays all over the field. I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s one of the leading tacklers in Year One from this class and he also has the big-play ability to deliver some signature moments on his way to a stellar rookie season. The Bucs are bound for the playoffs for the first time since 2007 and Winfield could be a big reason why on the defensive end.
Schwartz - Derrick Brown (+2500): I frankly don’t understand how or why Derrick Brown has such long odds to win Rookie of the Year. He was an absolute force at Auburn, and it’s not wrong to consider him the most talented defender in this year’s draft class. He is absolutely pro-ready and fills an enormous need for a rising Carolina front seven. Winning this award as an interior lineman is a challenge, as they often lack the flashy stats that edge rushers or linebackers accumulate, but Brown’s game tape will speak for itself, as will his role in elevating the Panthers’ defense. It’s not unrealistic to imagine him in a DeForest Buckner-type role, where he is a true lynchpin of a solid defense. Carolina is going through a franchise overhaul, the centerpiece of which is a defensive revolution. Brown figures to be an enormous part of this shift, and I believe that he could be recognized for this role as early as season 1.
K’Lavon Chaisson (+3100): Chaisson is expected to be an instant-impact pass rusher for the Jaguars after they lost Calais Campbell in free agency. In his final season at LSU, as a member of their national championship-winning team, Chaisson put up 60 tackles, 13.5 tackles for a loss, and 6.5 sacks. After only playing one game the season prior, he put himself back on the map as a first-round caliber talent. Now in Duval County, Chaisson will be playing alongside some solid defensive talent in Taven Bryan, Josh Allen, Myles Jack, Joe Schobert, Jarrod Wilson, and fellow first-round-pick from this year C.J. Henderson. That’s not exactly a murderer’s row of talent, so there’s a chance Chaisson is the Jags’ best defensive player this year. He’s a high-character player - he was given the #18 jersey at LSU to signify this. He has an impressive toolbox of pass-rush moves for his age and he could have a surprising number of sacks as a full-time starter for the Jaguars. He has some work to do in run defense, but Chaisson’s pass-rush impact could be enough to make him a surprise candidate for this award.
Schwartz - Grant Delpit (+2500): One of the more maligned stars from LSU’s champion team, Delpit will look to maximize the talent that once made so many teams recognize him as one of the top prospects in the nation. A bit of a risky pick here, after he flashed some issues at LSU, namely poor finishing on open field tackles, Delpit will need to rise to the occasion and fill a massive need in the Cleveland secondary. Like Brown, he comes to a team that needs big defensive changes in 2020, but unlike Brown, Delpit’s team has postseason aspirations. If Cleveland finds their way back to the postseason for the first time in over a decade, and Delpit finds his upside and plays solid football, don’t be surprised if voters for this award take note of his role in what figures to be an improved defense under the new regime in Cleveland.
Coach of the Year
Wayne - Vic Fangio (+2400): So, this is a homer pick. I’ll acknowledge it right off the bat. To be fair, though, I am more excited about this Broncos team heading into this season than I have been since Peyton Manning hung up his cleats. Denver has finally put together what should be an above-average offensive line and a great receiving corps featuring Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, and KJ Hamler. The run game should also be heavily featured with Melvin Gordon and Philip Lindsay. Finally, the defense should be much-improved with a healthy Bradley Chubb and the offseason acquisitions of A.J. Bouye and Jurrell Casey. The Broncos have not made the playoffs since Manning retired but I believe this is the year that drought ends. If it does, Vic Fangio would deserve some love on a national stage. Fangio has been coaching up defenses as a coordinator of position coach since 1979 - it’s in his blood. Last year was his first season as a head coach, though, and we should be expecting a significant improvement in Year Two, especially with Pat Shurmur as the offensive coordinator. Fangio has instilled his mantra of “death by inches” in Denver and he’s the guy to help this talented, young roster come together for a playoff push.
Schwartz - Matt Patricia (+3000): I know, I know. Stop writing about the Lions, Schwartz. But just like the situation with Stafford, if the Lions surpass their expectations and make a playoff push, their oft-maligned head coach will have to be recognized for it. Contrary to popular belief, I don’t think the former Patriots assistant has done a bad job in Detroit, he’s just received a very tall task and has not yet accomplished much. The Lions had an active offseason, during which Patricia brought in a number of defensive players who he worked with in New England. There’s been a trend of players performing strongly with the Pats, going elsewhere, and fully flopping, but Patricia has reason to believe that, as their former coach and defensive mastermind, he can be the exception to the rule and get the most out of these players once again. If he succeeds in this gamble, and the Lions crack .500 behind a strong defensive performance, Patricia will have completed one of the more impressive coaching jobs of the season and be the subject of chatter around this award. It will help him if Stafford is healthy and reaches his ceiling as well, as this defense is improved, but is not likely to be able to carry the team to success without solid QB play.
Wayne - Mike Tomlin (+2600): The longtime Steelers’ head coach has never finished with a losing record in any of his 13 seasons. However, over the past two years, Pittsburgh has disappointed at 9-6-1 and 8-8. In 2018, the offense was stellar with Ben Roethlisberger throwing it to Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster who combined for 2,723 receiving yards and 22 touchdowns. In 2019, the defense elevated to the 5th-best unit in points allowed on the back of an elite front seven featuring Cameron Heyward, Stephon Tuitt, T.J. Watt, Bud Dupree, Devin Bush, and Vince Williams. Big Ben is now expected to be fully healthy after missing all but two games last season and his return should elevate this team’s offense after an abysmal year with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges under center. If the offense can regain an above-average standing to complement what should be one of the best defenses in football, especially with a full season of Minkah Fitzpatrick, there’s no reason this Steelers’ team can’t win double-digit games and return to the playoffs. Perhaps they can even challenge the Ravens for the AFC North title. If they do, Mike Tomlin would certainly be rewarded for his long-time impact on this team.
Schwartz - Matt Rhule (+3000): As I discussed in my bit on Defensive Rookie of the Year, the Panthers have completely overhauled their entire franchise this offseason. Rhule, the new head coach, has been given a rookie draft class completely comprised of defensive players, a brilliant Offensive Coordinator in Joe Brady, the man who created Joe Burrow, a franchise quarterback who Brady has familiarity with, Teddy Bridgewater, and the NFL’s most devastating offensive weapon in do-it-all dynamo Christian McCaffrey. Rhule worked wonders at both Baylor and Temple, turning around both programs in much less time than anyone could have ever hoped. He has all the tools to succeed in Carolina, but still has to navigate a hyper-competitive division with perhaps two of the top three or four teams in the NFC to contend with. If he’s able to do so successfully and lead the Panthers to a winning record in his first season, he’d have to garner some votes as the best coach of 2020, as this would be no small accomplishment. I don’t think there’s any guarantees for this team, but if they do find success, their head coach deserves much of the credit.
Comeback Player of the Year
Wayne - Derwin James (+3300): When Schwartz and I started the Google Doc for this article, I raced to claim Derwin James for this category because I know how much we both love him as a player. After a First-Team All-Pro rookie season, James suffered a stress fracture in his foot in August of 2019 which kept him out of all but 5 games last season. James is an undeniable talent though and one of the best safeties in football when fully healthy - PFF ranked him 31st on their list of the top 50 players entering 2020. The Chargers were already a top-ten defensive unit in yards allowed last year and they should be even better with James back healthy and Chris Harris Jr. joining the secondary. James is the type of player who can elevate everyone around him with his Swiss Army Knife capabilities. His closing speed is astounding and he can do everything from rush the passer to defend tight ends in the passing game to provide an in-the-box presence against running backs. Defensive coordinator Gus Bradley previously helped Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor become household names in Seattle and James has the same level of talent as those two did in the Legion of Boom. While comeback player could be given to an offensive player, James is perhaps the most talented candidate for the award and should have a breakthrough campaign in LA.
Schwartz - CJ Mosley (+5000): To be completely honest, I have absolutely no idea how Mosley is this big of an underdog. Later on, when we do our picks for these awards, Mosley will be mine for Comeback Player of the Year. During the one half he played last year, the Jets absolutely dominated the Bills, who ended up being an 11-win playoff team, before his departure due to injury, after which they utterly collapsed for the rest of the game and most of the season. As a mike linebacker, Mosley is nothing short of a transformative, game-breaking force, one the Jets desperately need as they hope to step up in a confusing AFC East division, and a very crowded wild-card race. Expect him to be among the league leaders in tackles, and to lead a very strong Jets defense, both of which could place him among the contenders for Defensive Player of the Year as well as this award. All signs point towards a healthy start to 2020 for the former Alabama standout, and if he plays 16 games at the level he’s capable of, there’s no reason that anyone else should win this award unless Stafford goes insane and launches himself into the MVP discussion.
Wayne - Antonio Brown (+2500): This one requires some imagination, as AB is not currently on an NFL roster and may not be by the time the season kicks off. However, it wasn’t that long ago (2018) that he was putting up close to 1,300 yards and 15 touchdowns in a Steelers uniform. Brown had been one of the best receivers over this decade, making four straight First-Team All-Pro rosters from 2014 to 2017 and having at least 1,200 receiving yards in six straight seasons with double-digit touchdowns in five of those. If Brown were to be signed to a roster, there’s no doubt he would make an instant impact and likely become the team’s top wideout - he was arguably the best receiver in football before his career got sidetracked by off-the-field issues. If Brown can pull himself together before this season and refocus his energies on the football field, the narrative would be on his side for him to win this award. I’m not totally sure we’ll ever see peak AB again, but if we do he would be a lock to win Comeback Player of the Year.
Schwartz - Bradley Chubb (+3300): Chubb’s case is quite straightforward. He flashed enormous potential during a 12-sack rookie season, and will be joining a Broncos defense that is flush with talent and hoping to make a playoff push. If Chubb can reach and even exceed the level of play that he flashed in his first season, while staying healthy in year 3, he will be one of the most serious candidates for this award. It would also help his case if the Broncos do find success, particularly if their approach is defense-driven. Chubb represents the future in Denver, and this season is the one where he will be expected to receive the proverbial torch from Super Bowl veterans such as Von Miller and become a true leader in Denver’s front seven. If he’s able to do so, and dominate across a healthy campaign for a playoff team, his story will be among the most compelling in the eyes of Comeback Player of the Year voters.
