NFL Win Totals O/U - NFC East
By: Wayne and Schwartz
Dallas Cowboys
2020 WIN TOTAL: 9.5
SOS: #25
2019 RECORD: 8-8
SCHWARTZ: OVER
WAYNE: OVER
Schwartz: Over. WAY over. This team is extremely solid and is finally rid of Jason Garrett in favor of Super Bowl champ Mike McCarthy. Dallas also had a fantastic draft, maybe the best in football, getting insane value in their picks of CeeDee Lamb, Tyler Biadasz, and more. The ‘boys directly addressed some of their most glaring needs, and have a QB who will be dead set on proving his worth as a 40-million dollar (or more?) asset. They could very easily go 5-1 or even undefeated in the putrid NFC East, but face a tough schedule with matchups against the NFC west and AFC north. However, they should still find themselves at the top of the division, if not the entire conference, and that will obviously involve double-digit wins against a fairly humorous schedule. Final prediction: 13-3 (1-seed)
Wayne: Over. The Cowboys are one of my favorite over bets for the upcoming season. The team really underperformed as they ranked top-12 in both points for and against and still somehow only finished with 8 wins. Pro Football Reference listed their expected win total at 10.7, a mark they could exceed after their offseason overhaul. Jason Garrett was clearly holding Dallas back and I love the addition of Mike McCarthy for them. The free agency acquisitions of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Gerald McCoy, and Dontari Poe will all help, although the losses of Byron Jones and Robert Quinn will hurt. Luckily, the Cowboys had perhaps the best draft in the entire NFL with CeeDee Lamb, Trevon Diggs, Neville Gallimore, Reggie Robinson, Tyler Biadasz, and Bradlee Anae all having future/immediate starting potential. The Cowboys’ schedule isn’t particularly difficult, and what really stands out to me is that their two toughest road games (at Minnesota and at Baltimore) come after extensive breaks - the Vikings after their bye and the Ravens after a 10-day break coming off their Thanksgiving game. The Cowboys should pick apart a weak NFC East and despite a few tough opponents have one of the easier schedules in football. Once Dak Prescott resigns, he should be ready to send this team back to the playoffs. Final prediction: 13-3.
Biggest addition: The Cowboys draft was nothing short of phenomenal, so it’s really hard to pick just one. CeeDee Lamb was an absolute steal and will be a day-one difference maker, and the exact same can be said for Travis Frederick’s replacement, Tyler Biadasz. Gerald McCoy, Dontari Poe, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, and draftee Trevon Diggs will all be significant upgrades to the Dallas defense. But the biggest add can be none other than Mike McCarthy, as all of this phenomenal talent would have languished around .500 all season if Jason Garrett was still at the helm.
Biggest loss: Frederick. A lot of solid players left Dallas this offseason, but none other than Frederick were much more than role players. Biadasz is as solid of a replacement as one could hope for, but Frederick was the cornerstone of a lot of really great Dallas offensive lines.
Philadelphia Eagles
2020 WIN TOTAL: 9.5
SOS: #14
2019 RECORD: 9-7
SCHWARTZ: Under
WAYNE: Under
Schwartz: Under. I do not like the Eagles. They went on a crazy run in 2017, and haven’t achieved at the same level since, yet still are consistently regarded as a contender in the preseason. I just don’t think this team is well-equipped to beat the Cowboys or even necessarily the Giants, or many of the tough out-of-division opponents in their first-place schedule, and after back-to-back 9-7 seasons, I simply don’t see them taking a step forward. They were also absolutely puzzling on draft day, reaching for Jalen Reagor rather than opting for one of the more highly regarded wideout prospects, and using a relatively high pick on Jalen Hurts, to serve as either a gadget player or a backup QB, based on the very reasonable assumption that they see Wentz as their franchise guy for the next decade or so. This seems like a franchise without any clear direction, about to play a challenging schedule in a division with a clear favorite. They raised a lot of questions last season, despite winning the division, and it’s hard to say they’ve answered any of them throughout the offseason. Final prediction: 7-9
Wayne: Under. I disagree with Schwartz on the Eagles’ talent. The Eagles had two major weaknesses in 2019 - a complete lack of consistency from their wide receivers and holes all over their secondary. Both of those issues should be remedied. Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson should be healthy and ready to contribute alongside rookies Jalen Reagor, John Hightower, and Quez Watkins as well as trade acquisition Marquise Goodwin. The secondary should also be improved after adding Darius Slay, a multi-time Pro Bowl corner and Nickell Robey-Coleman who’s one of the better slot cover corners in the league. The loss of Malcolm Jenkins will hurt, but the trio of Rodney McLeod, Jalen Mills, and Will Parks will do their best to replace him. Recent draftee at safety K’Von Wallace also has all kinds of upside. The Eagles won 9 games last year despite all of their injury issues and roster holes - this is a better team on paper. However, I don’t see how they get to 10 games with this schedule. 4-2 is realistic upside in the NFC East and I don’t see them coming away with more than 2 wins against the NFC West, perhaps less. The Eagles will also not be favored against the Saints at home or the Packers at Lambeau. That’s 6 losses right there, and that’s before we talk about games against the Steelers and Ravens. The Eagles have a tough schedule, and while they may be fielding a better football team, Philly’s ceiling is 9-7. Final prediction: 8-8.
Biggest addition: The Eagles struggled to produce anything resembling consistency from their wide receiver room last season, so the obvious choice here is Jalen Reagor who should contribute immediately in his rookie season. Darius Slay and Nickell-Robey Coleman should also help as immediate starters in a secondary that just lost…
Biggest losses: Malcolm Jenkins. He’s been the Eagles’ best non-defensive line starter for the past half-decade and it will be hard to replace his all-around the production - he can line up all over the field, tackling running backs behind the line of scrimmage and covering opposing tight ends with the best of them.
New York Giants
2020 WIN TOTAL: 6.5
SOS: #2
2019 RECORD: 4-12
SCHWARTZ: Under
WAYNE: Under
Schwartz: Under. The Giants actually drafted pretty well, particularly in the early rounds, but they have a new coach, a QB who is a serious candidate for sophomore slump, a relatively tough schedule, and frankly, no recent history that suggests that success is imminent. Comfortable under for the G-men, although the future seems a little bit brighter than it did not too long ago. This is a classic example of a team that may very well be a better football team than it was a year ago, but still have a similar to worse record due to its puzzlingly tough third-place schedule. A lot of things could go right, such as Danny Dimes taking a big step forward, questionable hire Joe Judge making big positive changes in year 1 as head coach, the draft and free agency additions could do well in replacing a number of defensive cogs, or somehow, Saquon Barkley can become the first running back since Adrian Peterson to carry a viable offense. But those are all unlikely, and most if not all of them would need to happen for the Giants to have a good year in regards to their win total. Final prediction: 4-12
Wayne: Under. The Giants won 4 games last season, replaced their entire coaching staff, lost a handful of serviceable defensive veterans, and now we’re expecting them to approach .500? I just don’t see it, especially against the 2nd-toughest schedule in football. They’ll be lucky to come away with more than a couple of wins in the NFC East. I like Daniel Jones more than most and unlike Schwartz I expect him to continue to progress in 2020, but I’m not sure that immediately translates to this team’s record. The Giants had the 3rd-worst defense in football last year in terms of points allowed and while Xavier McKinney, James Bradberry, and Blake Martinez will help in that regard, I don’t see them resembling close to a high-level defense this year. They have more offensive weapons than most realize with the crew of Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Darius Slayton, Golden Tate, and Sterling Shepard, and while they might be a better team for fantasy football production than last year, I don’t see 7 wins in the cards for this squad. Final prediction: 5-11.
Biggest addition: The Giants got two incredibly impactful guys with their first two picks in the draft in Andrew Thomas and Xavier McKinney. Thomas will provide blindside protection for franchise QB Daniel Jones and McKinney will be one of the team’s best defensive players this season. It’s also worth noting that Leonard Williams was given the franchise tag and James Bradberry was signed to a big contract.
Biggest loss: The Giants didn’t lose any star names from their roster, perhaps because there weren’t that many to begin with. Eli Manning retires after several mediocre seasons as the starter and a handful of lucky playoff runs ending in Super Bowl wins. His emotional team leadership in the locker room absolutely cannot be overstated, but his on-field impact was none, except for when it was negative. This team didn’t lose a ton but, like I said, they never really had a ton.
Washington Redskins
2020 WIN TOTAL: 5.5
SOS: #7
2019 RECORD: 3-13
SCHWARTZ: Under
WAYNE: Over
Schwartz: Under. Three unders in a weak division are capped off by Washington, a team that I think could come extremely close to “earning” the first-overall pick in the 2021 draft. There are too many holes to begin to discuss with this team, and I simply do not see them as being too much better than the 2019 Redskins squad who picked second in the recent NFL draft. One of those holes that I actually will discuss is quarterback. Dwayne Haskins flashed enormous talent at Ohio State, but has not remotely been that passer in the NFL. If he somehow takes a big second-year leap, this team could improve on its 2019 campaign, particularly in a weak division, especially with the help of a much-improved defense and the addition of “Riverboat” Ron Rivera. But relying on a passer who averaged less than 7 yards per toss this year to improve (by a lot) while squaring up against the 7th toughest schedule in the NFL does not seem like a great idea to me, so I’m going to stick with the under despite the low total of 5.5. The one path to success to winning some games even if Haskins continues to be brutal at QB is riding a crushing defense, like the 2018 Bears did, but while this defensive unit should be solid, it won’t be quite as good as the Bears’ group, and as we saw in Chicago this past fall, that’s really not the best approach to winning games in the modern NFL. Final prediction: 3-13
Wayne: Over. Call me crazy, but I kind of sort of like this Redskins team. Washington quietly has put together one of the best front sevens in the NFL with rookie Chase Young joining Jonathan Allen, Da’Ron Payne, Matt Ionnidis, Ryan Kerrigan, Thomas Davis, and Jon Bostic. Their defense as a whole should be much improved from their 27th-rank in yards and points allowed of last season. Ronald Darby, Kendall Fuller, and Sean Davis should boost the secondary which already featured Landon Collins. Perhaps most importantly, Ron Rivera is going to instill a physical brand of football as the new head coach. The offense was atrocious last year and I am not sold at all on Dwayne Haskins, but if Derrius Guice can finally stay healthy their run game could be solid. There are plenty of opponents on the Redskins’ schedule - Cardinals, Browns, Rams, Giants, Lions, Bengals, and Panthers - that Washington could potentially steal a game against. The Redskins aren’t going to have a high-end offense but their defense should be much improved and I see this team surprising some people in Ron Rivera’s first year as head coach. Final prediction: 6-10.
Biggest addition: The biggest addition to this roster is easily Chase Young, who has multi-time All-Pro potential in the potentially immediate future. He joins what should be one of the most underrated front sevens in the league this year. Young is dominant in the run game and as a pass rusher and is going to be a starter for the Redskins for a long time.
Biggest loss: Washington has been a team largely devoid of talent as of late, but Trent Williams is a tough loss for them as a multi-time Pro-Bowl tackle. He was one of the better pass protectors in the league and would have been leaned upon to protect mediocre quarterback Dwayne Haskins. Oh well.
