NFL QB Carousel
By: Wayne
The NFL draft is only a couple of weeks away (alright, a month and a half but who's counting?), and with quarterbacks getting on-field action in the scouting combine on Thursday, I wanted to take a look at the teams in the market for a signal-caller. This will include teams that have a clear hole at the position as well as a handful of others who may be in the market should things break a certain way. Teams are listed in the order they will pick in the upcoming draft.
First, here are the teams who I don't think are even having a conversation about their 2020 starter:
Washington Redskins (Dwayne Haskins)
New York Giants (Daniel Jones)
Arizona Cardinals (Kyler Murray)
Jacksonville Jaguars (Gardner Minshew)
Cleveland Browns (Baker Mayfield)
New York Jets (Sam Darnold)
Denver Broncos (Drew Lock)
Atlanta Falcons (Matt Ryan)
Philadelphia Eagles (Carson Wentz)
Los Angeles Rams (Jared Goff)
Buffalo Bills (Josh Allen)
Minnesota Vikings (Kirk Cousins)
Houston Texans (Deshaun Watson)
Seattle Seahawks (Russell Wilson)
Baltimore Ravens (Lamar Jackson)
Green Bay Packers (Aaron Rodgers)
San Francisco 49ers (Jimmy Garoppolo)
Kansas City Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes)
Cincinnati Bengals (2-14, #1 draft pick)
Andy Dalton (PFF's #25 QB in 2019) will reportedly be on the move this offseason, with the Bengals wanting to get younger at quarterback. Per Lindsay Jones of the Athletic, there has been high demand for the veteran signal-caller on the trade market and he could net the Bengals a second-round pick. Of course, that pick won't be the one Cincinnati uses to get their man under center - they'll take care of that early on draft night. Joe Burrow has been linked to this team ever since they got the number one pick, and his confirmation to the media that he is ready to suit up for whatever team drafts him makes this all the more set-in-stone. Burrow casually tossed a record-high 60 touchdowns this season en route to a Heisman trophy and CFP championship. #BlowForJoe was in full swing in Cincy as Ryan Finely saw starts over a healthy Andy Dalton at various points this season. Ouch.
Likelihood to move on from current starter: 10/10
Prediction for next season's Week 1 starter: Joe Burrow
Detroit Lions (3-12-1, #3 draft pick)
Another disappointing season leaves Lions fans distraught - a place of some unfortunate comfort for them. Matthew Stafford (PFF's #8 QB) has consistently been one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league over the past several seasons, and the Lions' lack of success should not sit solely on his shoulders. Still, the team has yet to win a playoff game with Stafford under center, and the veteran QB is 32 and will cost the Lions a $33 million cap hit this year. With the team finding itself in prime position to take a young quarterback at the third spot in the draft, it can't be ruled out that they may try to recoup some value on Stafford and move forward with a younger player at the position. While Burrow will almost definitely be gone, the Lions would have their pick of the next crop at the position - Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovaloia, Jordan Love, etc. Since Tua will likely need to miss most or all of the 2020 season, this team could make a lot of sense as they have a viable starter in place. The Lions could also make Stafford available in trades - he would likely net them at least a first-round pick, as he would be one of the best options on the market for a team ready to win now (Patriots, anyone?). I'm pegging them to take Tua with the #3 pick for the time being, although a lot could change in between now and the draft.
Likelihood to move on from current starter: 4/10
Prediction for next season's Week 1 starter: Matthew Stafford (Tua on bench)
Miami Dolphins (5-11, #5 draft pick)
The Dolphins' management's #TankForTua gameplan saw some surprising resistance from Brian Flores, as the first-year head coach took a team devoid of talent to a surprising 5 wins. This roster was certainly constructed to go winless in order to nab the first overall pick and take the quarterback prospect from Alabama but after Tua's season-ending hip injury, the Dolphins were freed up to rattle off a surprising few wins. Miami has long been the most linked team to Tua, but according to the Sun-Sentinel, the two sides met this week at the combine and Tua left feeling like he had been given "the cold shoulder". Whatever team drafts Tua would be smart to let him rest for as long as he needs - redshirting him for the 2020 season may even be a viable plan. The Dolphins may not feel comfortable moving forward with the combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen for 2020 and may look to draft Justin Herbert who will be ready to play right away. Whether or not the Dolphins look past Tua likely depends to some extent on how much pressure Stephen Ross puts on management to assemble a more viable roster for next season. This is a situation worth monitoring for the next couple of months. There is also a good chance Tua gets taken ahead of Miami, either by one of the teams in place or through a trade, and I see Justin Herbert as their eventual draftee with his pro-ready skillset and availability for this season.
Likelihood to move on from current starter: 10/10
Prediction for next season's Week 1 starter: Justin Herbert
Los Angeles Chargers (6-10, #6 draft pick)
After another disappointing season, Philip Rivers and Chargers management seem to have a mutual interest in moving on from each other. Tom Brady rumors have been flying in recent weeks, and a move to Los Angeles could interest the veteran signal caller from an off-field perspective. LeBron James recently made the move to LA to pursue off-court business opportunities, and Brady could follow his lead to start to prepare for his post-football life. Brady grew up in Northern California, as well, so this could be a potential landing spot for him. The Chargers have the draft capital to take a young stud at the position like Justin Herbert. With the Bolts set to move into their new stadium in LA alongside the Rams and already struggling to sell tickets, they need to make a big splash to integrate themselves in the LA market. With Rivers' contract coming off the books, the Chargers have plenty of cap space to throw a hefty offer at Brady. They also have a litany of offensive weapons for him to utilize - Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, etc. Sure, their offensive line is pretty weak, but there are plenty of free agents who would love to move to LA to block for Brady. I'm probably going to look really silly for this in a few weeks when the Patriots resign Brady, but I see the combination of location, money, and improved weapons as being pretty damn enticing for Tom Terrific.
Likelihood to move on from current starter: 8.5/10
Prediction for next season's Week 1 starter: Tom Brady
Carolina Panthers (5-11, #7 draft pick)
The Panthers went on an 8-game losing streak to end the 2018-19 season, and it is pretty clear Kyle Allen doesn't have a future in this league as a starter. Cam Newton underwent some bizarre-sounding foot surgery a couple of weeks ago in which he got webbing in his left foot to help deal with his Lisfranc injury. That comes in addition to the back issues he has dealt with over the past couple of years. The future availability of Cam is a giant question mark at this point in time, and with his physical, rushing style the likelihood of future injuries can't be ignored. The veteran QB will turn 31 this summer, and he's pretty clearly past his prime. It does sound like he has something to prove this season, and based on reports coming out of Panthers camp I doubt we see anyone else under center to start the year provided Cam is healthy enough to play. As an insurance play, I think the Panthers could bring in Marcus Mariota. He would provide some long-term stability at the position, as well as the upside to develop into a decent starter after Cam's athleticism declines.
Likelihood to move on from current starter: 4.5/10
Prediction for next season's Week 1 starter: Cam Newton if healthy, Marcus Mariota if not
Las Vegas Raiders (7-9, #12 draft pick)
It's still hard to believe we're going to have a football team call Sin City home this season. Last season's Hard Knocks team made a half-assed run at the playoffs, but some upgrades are needed if Jon Gruden wants to turn them into a real contender. Derek Carr (PFF's #11 QB) has been serviceable at quarterback, but I wouldn't be shocked to see this team try to make a trade up the draft board to secure one of the younger talents. I also wouldn't be shocked to see them make a serious move for Tom Brady. Pretty much everything is on the table for this season. If the Raiders stand pat in the draft order, Jordan Love could be a strong option at this point. Gruden could fall in Love with the Utah State prospect's big frame, strong arm, and athletic ability. He likely wouldn't start in Week 1, but the team could bring him in to light a fire under Carr's butt and the two could compete for the starting role in training camp and the preseason. For now, I still see Carr as the most likely starter for the Raiders this season, but nothing would surprise me with this team.
Likelihood to move on from current starter: 3.5/10
Prediction for next season's Week 1 starter: Derek Carr
Indianapolis Colts (7-9, #13 draft pick)
The Colts were hit with a bombshell just a few days before this past season started when Andrew Luck announced his decision to walk away from the sport of football for the foreseeable future. Jacoby Brissett performed admirably as the starter in Luck's place, but he struggled to stay healthy and likely isn't the team's best option at the position heading into 2019. Instead, they should look to sign Philip Rivers in free agency. Head coach Frank Reich has coached Rivers in the past as the Chargers' quarterbacks coach and later offensive coordinator. The two have some established rapport and Rivers would likely fit right into the team's system. Not to mention he would likely be playing behind the best offensive line of his career. Jordan Love could also be an option if the Raiders don't draft him, and the team has reportedly shown interest in Marcus Mariota for some unknown reason.
Likelihood to move on from current starter: 7.5/10
Prediction for next season's Week 1 starter: Philip Rivers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9, #14 draft pick)
The Bucs were somehow one of the most fun teams to watch in the NFL this past season, with Jameis Winston leading a high-octane passing offense. Winston led the NFL in passing yards (5,109) and came second in touchdown passes (33). Mike Evans and Chris Godwin combined for 2,490 yards and 17 touchdowns. So why would Tampa move on from their quarterback? For starters, Winston led the NFL in interceptions with 30(!!) and became the first player in NFL history to throw 30+ touchdowns and interceptions in the same season. It wasn't uncommon for Winston to unleash an impressive long-bomb touchdown and make a bafflingly horrible read for an interception on back-to-back drives. Winston's bipolar play at quarterback can't be good for the long-term health of head coach Bruce Arians, and the Florida State product will hit free agency this year. NBC Sports' Peter King reported that Winston likely won't be back in Tampa after coaches grew frustrated with his turnover-prone play. It's going to be extremely difficult to make the playoffs with that level of turnover rate. Whether or not Winston is back in Tampa Bay likely depends on what other options are available to the team. Tampa may look to start over with a rookie quarterback if Arians falls in love with a prospect. Jordan Love has been receiving a ton of media hype after his impressive combine performance and could be the type of guy Arians covets with his combination of linebacker size, arm strength, and athleticism. Arians may want to bring in a veteran presence to mentor a young QB - look for Nick Foles to enter the conversation as the Jags want to move off his contract. A combination of Foles and Love could make a lot of sense for Tampa.
Likelihood to move on from current starter: 5/10
Prediction for next season's Week 1 starter: Nick Foles (with Jordan Love on bench)
Dallas Cowboys (8-8, #17 draft pick)
It was an up-and-down season for the Cowboys, but Dak Prescott (PFF's #10 QB) shouldn't shoulder the blame. He put up 4,902 yards and 30 touchdowns last season in a career year, benefitting from his first full season with Amari Cooper. It's pretty unlikely anyone other than Dak starts at QB in Week 1 for Dallas, but it's worth bringing up as Prescott will be a free agent this offseason. Jerry Jones compared Dak to his son, Stephen Jones, who is the executive vice president, CEO, and director of player personnel for the team. Jerry said Dak is a part of the family, and there shouldn't be a situation where Dak is forced to leave, even if the Cowboys have to franchise tag him.
Likelihood to move on from current starter: 1/10
Prediction for next season's Week 1 starter: Dak Prescott
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8, first-round pick owed to Miami)
Mason Rudolph (#35) and Devlin Hodges (#37) were two of PFF's three worst-rated quarterbacks among 37 qualified players. Luckily for Pittsburgh, Ben Roethlisberger sounds ready to make his return this season. General manager Kevin Colbert spoke to media about his 37-year-old QB this week, saying that he looks better than ever following elbow surgery. Neither Rudolph nor Hodges is the long-term answer for the team, so it would make some sense for them to add a young talent (Fromm, Eason, Hurts, etc.) to learn behind Roethlisberger until the veteran is ready to retire. Big Ben should be ready to start Week 1 for his team, though.
Likelihood to move on from current starter: 1/10
Prediction for next season's Week 1 starter: Ben Roethlisberger
Chicago Bears (8-8, first-round pick owed to Las Vegas)
Mitchell Trubisky was poor in the 2019 season, grading out as PFF's 30th best quarterback, and it's time for GM Ryan Pace to bring in some competition. The team has reportedly been interested in signing a veteran player to push Trubisky this season. A trade for Nick Foles is likely too cost-prohibitive, but there will be some vets on the market who fit the bill for the Bears. A trade for Andy Dalton wouldn't be a high-upside move, but the Red Rifle could teach Trubisky a thing or two about game management and leadership. The number one and two picks in the 2015 draft (Mariota and Winston) could be on the move as well, and they would provide a little more long-term upside for the Bears. Winston could be the play here, as he offers a completely different skillset to Trubisky and would provide excitement and electricity in the Bears' offense. His combination of off-field issues and on-field inconsistency could leave him out to dry without a starting spot next season. He wouldn't necessarily start in Week 1, as the Bears hold on hope for Trubisky's future somewhat foolishly, but I'm not sure a starting gig is out there for Winston. This would provide him with a solid chance of winning the job within one of the biggest NFL markets.
Likelihood to move on from current starter: 2.5/10 (likely to keep Trubisky)
Prediction for next season's Week 1 starter: Mitchell Trubisky (with Jameis Winston ready to take over)
New England Patriots (12-4, #23 draft pick)
The Patriots could head into this season without Tom Brady entrenched as their starting quarterback for the first time in almost 20 years. With tension mounting between franchise QB and legendary head coach, I'm not sure if Belichick can do enough to convince Brady to stay. This is the first team on the list that surely would keep Brady were it their decision entirely, but Tom could force the Pats to move on. Jarrett Stidham has drawn high praise from Patriots staff, but he won't be ready to start Week 1 this season. The Pats will need to bring in a veteran to help him transition into the starting role. Andy Dalton is likely their best option, although Blake Bortles, Case Keenum, and Chase Daniel could get consideration. Marcus Mariota is an interesting high-upside option, and reports have spoken to New England's interest in him. This would likely be Mariota's only shot to be a starter, as well. However, the guy who I see as the most likely candidate for the Pats is Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater has backed up Drew Brees in New Orleans for the past couple of seasons, but he has a first-round draft pedigree and has shown a starter-level skillset in the past with his accuracy and ability to read the field. He ranked as PFF's #19 QB. If the Colts do acquire Philip Rivers, the Pats could make a move for their former draft pick Jacoby Brissett.
Likelihood to move on from current starter: 5/10
Prediction for next season's Week 1 starter: Teddy Bridgewater
Tennessee Titans (9-7, #29 draft pick)
The Titans surprised a lot of people this past season, picking up a 7-3 record to end the regular season after making the switch from Mariota to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. They went on to defeat the Patriots and Ravens in the playoffs, making it a far more successful season than anyone expected. Now, Tannethrill becomes a free agent (along with Marcus Mariota), leaving the Titans without a clear starter heading into the next season. Titans brass has been insistent in their desire to resign the former Texas A&M product to a multi-year deal this offseason, and despite rumors of Brady interest it would be surprising to see anyone but Tannehill start for the team this season. If they do go in a different direction, Tannehill would instantly become one of the best (if not the best) options as far as free agent quarterbacks go. After making a low-risk trade for the former Dolphins QB before this last season, it seems like the Titans finally have their man under center and it would be surprising if they let him walk.
Likelihood to move on from current starter: 3.5/10
Prediction for next season's Week 1 starter: Ryan Tannehill
My predicted QB depth charts for each NFL team in the 2020 season:
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson, Robert Griffin III, Trace McSorely
Pittsburgh Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger, Mason Rudolph, Devlin Hodges
Cleveland Browns: Baker Mayfield, A.J. McCarron, Garrett Gilbert
Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, Case Keenum, Ryan Finley
AFC South
Houston Texans: Deshaun Watson, Colt McCoy, Khalil Tate
Indianapolis Colts: Philip Rivers, Jacoby Brissett, Brian Hoyer
Tennessee Titans: Ryan Tannehill, Trevor Siemian, Deondre Francois
Jacksonville Jaguars: Gardner Minshew, Blake Bortles, Joshua Dobbs
AFC East
New England Patriots: Teddy Bridgewater, Jarrett Stidham, Shea Patterson
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen, Matt Barkley, Davis Webb
New York Jets: Sam Darnold, Josh McCown, Mike White
Miami Dolphins: Justin Herbert, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh Rosen
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Kyle Shurmur
Los Angeles Chargers: Tom Brady, Tyrod Taylor, Easton Stick
Denver Broncos: Drew Lock, Joe Flacco, Brett Rypien
Las Vegas Raiders: Derek Carr, Jacob Eason, DeShone Kizer
NFC North
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers, Brett Hundley, Brian Lewerke
Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins, Brandon Allen, Jake Browning
Chicago Bears: Mitchell Trubisky, Jameis Winston, Nate Stanley
Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, David Blough, Tua Taglavoia
NFC South
New Orleans Saints: Drew Brees, Taysom Hill, Jake Fromm
Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Kurt Benkert
Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota, Will Grier
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Nick Foles, Jordan Love, Ryan Griffin
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott, Jeff Driskel, Clayton Thorson
Philadelphia Eagles: Carson Wentz, Nate Sudfeld, Kyle Lauletta
New York Giants: Daniel Jones, Geno Smith, Alex Tanney
Washington Redskins: Dwayne Haskins, Alex Smith, James Morgan
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo, C.J. Beathard, Blaine Gabbert
Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson, Chase Daniel, Jalen Hurts
Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff, Mike Glennon, Steve Montez
Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray, Matt Moore, Drew Anderson, Chris Steveler
