College Basketball Best Bets - 2/21 Slate
While Wednesday doesn’t offer quite the same caliber of games as what became an electric Super Tuesday, there are some spots on the board that I see as worthy of an investment. In this article, I’ll break down my favorite plays on Wednesday’s slate. Let’s get to work.
Providence at Xavier
Over in the Big East, Xavier hosts Providence after beating the Friars on their home court by 20 earlier this season. The Musketeers are 5-point favorites in this game, but the analytics suggest that the spread is overinflated. In that win earlier this season, Xavier shot lights out 12-24 (50%) from 3-point range, but that’s hardly indicative of their level of production this season - for the year, they shoot just 34.4% (143rd) from deep.
In particular, Xavier got an incredible performance from freshman Trey Green in that game. He scored 23 points off the bench on 9-14 shooting, including 5-8 from three-point range. However, it wasn’t a harbinger of things to come as he has only scored in double figures in one other conference game all season. He’s averaging just 6 points per game this season.
In that win, Xavier also benefited from 24 fast break points, registering 1.82 points per possession (PPP) per Synergy. That would be by far the most efficient clip in the country this season. However, Providence allows just 0.92 PPP in transition this year, which is in the 89th percentile, and I expect them to do a much better job of defending in those situations in this game.
If Providence can force Xavier to operate in the half-court more often, that will play right into their hands. The Musketeers rank in the 24th percentile in PPP in half-court sets and rank 340th in shot selection per ShotQuality. Providence, meanwhile, ranks in the 89th percentile defending in the half-court and 18th overall in adjusted defensive efficiency.
First-year head coach Kim English has brought a renewed emphasis on analytics to Providence, emphasizing the most efficient shooting opportunities as the Friars rank 12th in shot selection and 33rd in rim & 3 rate per ShotQuality. That gives them a leg up in this game, and we should see productive outings from Devin Carter and Joshua Oduro, a scoring duo as potent as any in the Big East.
Providence has performed well on the road all season, going 6-2 ATS, and Cintas Arena isn’t a particularly daunting home court - Xavier ranks just 115th in KenPom’s home-court advantage ratings. Between the hyper-efficient transition offense and a 99th-percentile game from Green as part of a rare shooting outburst for the Musketeers, Xavier’s performance from the last matchup is unsustainable. I expect English to press the right buttons in a crucial conference game between two teams squarely on the bubble.
Best Bet: Providence +5 (play to +4)
Nebraska at Indiana
Nebraska’s road woes have been well-documented at this point. The Corn Huskers are 1-7 straight up and 2-6 on the road this season and are 351st in Haslametrics’ away-from-home ratings this season. However, I believe those road struggles have become overpriced in the market with Nebraska available at a pick ‘em on Wednesday against a woeful Indiana team.
Nebraska’s road struggles deserve a closer look under the microscope. Winning on the road in Big Ten play is difficult in general - only Purdue has a winning record away from home. Nebraska also suffered narrow losses to Rutgers and Illinois in overtime, so it’s not like every road game has been a blowout. Here, they get their easiest road test of the season against an Indiana team that’s just 3-3 at home in conference play.
Indiana has one of the biggest frontcourts in the country, ranking fourth in KenPom’s height metric. Mike Woodson built a team that was intended to bully opponents inside, making up for any shortcomings on the perimeter. However, they rank outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive rebounding, and any defensive advantage is mitigated by a foul-happy defense that ranks 200th in free throw rate.
Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are awful defending on the perimeter, ranking outside the top 300 against catch-and-shoot and off-the-dribble 3s per ShotQuality. Nebraska loves to attack from deep, ranking 36th in 3-point attempt rate. The Huskers are led by sharpshooter Keisei Tominaga who burned Indiana with 28 points in their prior matchup.
Indiana gets most of its offense from two-point range as it ranks 347th in 3-point attempt rate, a direct result of its interior-focused roster. However, Nebraska has a dominant interior defense that ranks in the 81st percentile in defending the rim per Synergy. The Huskers also allow opponents to convert on just 45.1% of two-point attempts, which ranks 17th in the country.
Nebraska is firmly on the bubble as of now while Indiana’s only chance of making it to March is winning the Big Ten tournament. Motivation is clearly on their side against an Indiana team without much left to play for aside from pride. Haslametrics and ShotQuality both make this spread closer to Nebraska -3, and I believe we’re getting strong value on the Huskers as a result of their perceived deficiencies on the road this season.
Best Bet: Nebraska PK (play to -2)
Colorado State at New Mexico
The Mountain West very well could be a six-bid conference this season, and the six teams at the top have differentiated themselves from the rest of the pack. That group of six has enjoyed a dominant home-court advantage this season, racking up a staggering 75-8 (90%) home record this season. New Mexico is one of those teams, and they’re looking to defend an 11-2 straight-up and 9-3 ATS home record on Wednesday night.
The Lobos enjoy one of the best home-court environments in the country at The Pit, which is ranked 7th in KenPom’s home-court advantage ratings. That’s a daunting trip for a Colorado State team that has gone 1-5 on the road in conference play. New Mexico has gone 4-2 at home in conference play, losing their two most recent games at The Pit, but those four wins came by an average of 20.5 points per game. They beat San Diego State, Utah State, and Nevada, three of the four top teams in the conference, all by double digits.
Colorado State beat New Mexico 76-68 at home earlier this season, limiting a potent New Mexico transition attack to just 6 fast break points despite forcing 15 turnovers. It’s tough to see that performance being replicated on the road as the Lobos are in the 94th percentile in transition efficiency while the Rams are in the 25th percentile on defense per Synergy. The Lobos play at the sixth-fastest adjusted tempo in the country, and on their home court, they should be able to force the 260th-ranked Rams to play at a pace they aren’t comfortable with.
Freshman JT Toppin could be the big difference-maker for New Mexico in this game. He’s coming off an impressive performance with 18 points and 10 rebounds on the road against San Diego State, and he finished with 17 points and 11 rebounds against the Rams earlier this season. Colorado State ranks in just the 38th percentile defending the pick-and-roll roll man per Synergy, where Toppin often operates.
