College Basketball Best Bets - 2/20 Slate
We’re back with another loaded Super Tuesday slate in the world of college basketball, which means I’m back with another column here on Wayne’s World of Sports. Let’s get to work.
Syracuse at NC State
Fresh off a momentous win over Clemson on Saturday, NC State welcomes Syracuse to PNC Arena. The Wolfpack the is looking for revenge on Tuesday night after losing by 12 at Syracuse earlier this season. In that game, the Wolfpack shot just 20% from the field in the first half, leading to a 16-point halftime deficit that they never recovered from. However, I expect things to be much different this time around.
Syracuse has dealt with significant injuries in its frontcourt, leading to 6’8” forward Maliq Brown being the de facto starting center. As a result of that lack of size, the Orange rank 297th in defensive rebounding and 278th in 2-point FG% allowed. They’re also in the 12th percentile of efficiency defending the rim per Synergy.
NC State big man DJ Burns is in position to dominate here as a skilled interior scorer. At 6’9”, 275 lbs, Burns is an imposing presence who should have a much better game after a poor 5-14 shooting performance the first time around against Cuse. If the Orange look to double Burns inside, he can kick out to open shooters including the scorching hot DJ Horne.
Horne was held to just 15 points against Syracuse earlier this season, but he’s averaging 26.6 points per game in his five outings since. He should torch a vulnerable perimeter defense. Syracuse relies on turnovers to have success on defense, but the Wolfpack have the fourth-lowest turnover rate in the country and this veteran group won’t succumb to the pressure, especially at home.
The Syracuse offense primarily hinges on shooting - they’re 94th in spot up frequency but just 56th in efficiency per Synergy. Against an NC State defense that ranks in the 86th percentile defending spot-ups, that’s not a recipe for success. NC State is in the 80th percentile for the rate of guarded jump shots per Synergy, so expect restricted air space for Judah Mintz and JJ Starling.
Syracuse has been awful on the road this season, going 2-6 straight up and ATS on the road this season with their six road losses coming by an average of 19.5 points per game. NC State has an uphill battle to reach tournament consideration, but this is a veteran group that is looking to finish the season with pride. Expect a blowout win for the Wolfpack on Tuesday night.
Best Bet: NC State -5.5
UConn At Creighton
Fading UConn right now seems terrifying. They just became the first unanimous #1 ranked team in the AP Top 25 following their dominant win over Marquette. Donovan Clingan’s elite rim protection helped the Huskies completely lock up the interior against a Marquette team dependent on interior scoring. However, this is a different type of matchup on the road at Creighton.
If there’s one area you want to attack the elite UConn defense, it’s on the perimeter. The Huskies are in the 93rd percentile defending at the rim per Synergy while ranking in the 31st percentile against spot-up shooters. Creighton is 9th in the country in 3-point attempt rate and in the 94th percentile in spot-up efficiency per Synergy, putting their shooters in position for success. The Blue Jays are in the 99th percentile in the frequency of jump shots taken, rarely attacking the rim.
In the matchup between these teams earlier this season, Creighton shot an uncharacteristically poor 6-26 (23.1%) from 3-point range. Of course, UConn’s defense deserves credit for that effort, but it’s also fair to expect a slightly better shooting performance as Creighton shoots 37.3% from deep at home. If the Huskies overplay the perimeter to stop those shooters, the Blue Jays can work the ball inside to Kalkbrenner, who averages 17.2 ppg.
Very few defenses have a true answer for Clingan in the paint, but Creighton might be one. Ryan Kalkbrenner headlines a defense ranked in the 93rd percentile in defending at the rim. Kalkbrenner stands at a towering 7’1” with a 7’5” wingspan, and he helps Creighton limit second chance opportunities, where they rank 19th per Haslametrics.
Haslametrics makes this game a pick’em while KenPom and BartTorvik make it closer to UConn -2. UConn was favored by 6.5 at home against Creighton earlier this season, and assuming about an 8-point flip for home court, this line is a touch overinflated. At the full 3 points here, we’re getting a good value on Creighton at home in a schematic matchup where they have surprising advantages. I like the Blue Jays to stay within one possession in this game and perhaps pull off the outright upset.
Best Bet: Creighton +3
Baylor at BYU
It’s been a rough go for BYU lately, and they’re coming off their worst performance of the season on Saturday as they lost on the road to a mediocre Oklahoma State team that ranks outside the top 100 in KenPom’s rankings. However, I love this as a bounce-back spot for the Cougars at home against Baylor.
Baylor has been soaring lately with wins in five of their last six games, but I still have serious questions about their defense. The Bears rank 320th in eFG% allowed on the road per BartTorvik and are in the 15th percentile defending in transition per Synergy. BYU’s transition offense is lethal, ranking in the 85th percentile.
BYU is also a lights-out shooting team, ranking 2nd in attempt rate with five different players who have made 30+ threes this season. Baylor is allowing opponents to shoot the third-highest 3-point clip in conference play and is ranked outside the top 220 teams in defending catch-and-shoot and off-the-dribble 3s per ShotQuality.
Meanwhile, BYU should be able to limit Baylor’s opportunities from deep. The Bears are in the 97th percentile in spot-up efficiency per Synergy but BYU is in the 94th percentile defending jump shots. Most of Baylor’s offense comes from pick-and-roll sets with their potent ball-handlers, but BYU ranks in the 86th percentile in defending pick-and-roll.
Provo, Utah has been a fortress for the Cougars as they’ve gone 13-2 straight up and 10-5 ATS at home. That includes impressive home wins over San Diego State, Texas, and Iowa State, all by 9+ points. Meanwhile, Baylor has had troubles on the road, ranking 348th in Haslametrics’ away-from-home rating.
BYU lost to Baylor earlier this season, but the game was back and forth the whole way before Baylor pulled away late. This time around, I’m betting on BYU exacting revenge. Most metrics sites have this game priced at around 3 points, but BartTorvik lines this game at BYU -4.5, and I’m more in line with that number. Bet on BYU bouncing back in front of a raucous crowd.
