College Basketball Best Bets - 3/2 Slate
It’s the final big regular season college basketball Saturday of the year before conference tournaments begin, and we’re going big with not one but two best bets articles. I wrote up eight games for my college basketball best bets on this epic Saturday slate, and you can find the other five on OddsShopper. Let’s get to work.
Mississippi State at Auburn
Auburn is coming off a midweek loss on the road at Tennessee. The game was close throughout, but Tennessee pulled away in the second half thanks to a 39-point explosion from Dalton Knecht. While the Tigers’ hopes of winning the SEC are all but dashed, they have plenty left to play for, and they’ll be seeking revenge on Saturday as they host Mississippi State.
Auburn has been a different team at home this season, going 13-1 straight up and 9-5 ATS in the Jungle. However, its last game at home was that loss to Kentucky, and it will be hungry to bounce back with a win for their fans. Before that loss, Auburn had gone 6-0 at home in conference play with wins by an average of 22.3 points per game. That includes double-digit wins over ranked teams in Alabama and South Carolina.
Auburn is an especially dangerous home team due to its ability to turn defense into offense. It thrives on its home crowd, scoring buckets in transition and taking the will away from opponents. Auburn ranks 20th in transition frequency this season, and Mississippi State will be happy to oblige, ranking 276th in turnover rate.
It’s difficult to see where Mississippi State finds consistent offense in this game. The Bulldogs are in the 55th percentile in half-court efficiency per Synergy and Auburn is in the 94th percentile on defense. The Tigers rank top ten in both adjusted defensive efficiency and effective FG% allowed at home. Auburn also ranks in the 96th percentile defending the rim per Synergy, where Mississippi State gets most of its offense.
Mississippi State has struggled on the road this season, going just 2-6 ATS. It did win its last two road games, but they came against inferior competition in Missouri and LSU, and both teams were missing their starting point guard. Here, they face a grueling test against Auburn, and this game should look much more like the Bulldogs’ five prior conference road games, which were losses by an average of 12.8 points.
Best Bet: Auburn -9.5 (play to -10)
Iowa at Northwestern
Iowa is quietly playing some great basketball as of late, winning four of their last six games including a stunning road upset over Michigan State. Its offense has been tremendous lately as they rank 9th in adjusted offensive efficiency since the beginning of February. Meeting them in this game is a Northwestern defense that ranks 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency since the beginning of February.
However, this Iowa offense will be the best Northwestern has faced in over a month. Their five wins in February all came against offenses ranked outside the top 80 in adjusted efficiency, while Iowa ranks 12th on the season. Northwestern still has defensive holes that can be exploited as they’re 244th in eFG% allowed on the season.
Northwestern ranks 335th in adjusted tempo, grinding games to a halt and forcing its opponents to operate in the half-court. That’s not a problem for Iowa, who ranks 90th in half-court offensive efficiency, while Northwestern ranks in the 34th percentile on defense. Iowa also ranks in the 90th percentile in scoring at the rim while Northwestern struggles to defend in the paint.
The Wildcats could also have some personnel issues in this game. Already ranked 334th in bench minutes this season, Northwestern lost starting guard Ty Berry for the season and could be without Ryan Langborg once again here after he missed their last game. As a result of those injuries, Northwestern was forced to play former walk-on Blake Smith for 27 minutes in their win over Maryland.
Unlike many teams in this conference, Iowa handles itself well on the road where it ranks 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency this season. Boo Buie will put some points on the board here at home, but Iowa is the deeper, healthier team, and its offense is currently the best-producing unit in this game. I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright win on the road as the Hawkeyes make a late push at a tournament berth.
Best Bet: Iowa +3.5 (play to +3)
Tennessee At Alabama
Alabama hosts Tennessee on Saturday in a massive opportunity for the Crimson Tide to exact revenge and claim sole possession of the top spot in the SEC. The Volunteers got the win in the first battle between these elite teams earlier this season with a final score of 91-71. While that win was remarkably impressive for the Vols, there are some factors we should expect to change in this rematch.
The Crimson Tide offense was off-kilter all game, as they shot 4/21 (19%) from 3 and had just 9 assists to 22 turnovers. Alabama boasts the second-most efficient offense in the country, so Tennessee’s defense deserves plenty of praise. However, I’d be shocked if we see that performance repeated. The Tide shoot a blistering 41.1% from 3 at home compared to 34.7% on the road this season, so we should see a far better shooting performance.
The Tennessee defense also hasn’t been the same on the road this season. At home, they rank fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency and third in eFG% allowed, but outside of Knoxville, they’re 111th in adjusted efficiency and 78th in eFG% allowed. They also allow opponents to shoot 26.7% from 3 (7th) at home compared to 37.2% from 3 (291st) on the road.
I don’t have many nice things to say about the Alabama defense, and superstar Dalton Knecht should have another tremendous outing in this game. However, the Tide can do themselves some favors on defense by simply forcing the Vols to operate in the half-court. Tennessee scored 23 points off turnovers in that first game, but Alabama ranks in the 88th percentile defending in transition per Synergy, so it should tighten that aspect of the game up.
Alabama has been dominant at home this season, going 13-1 straight up and 11-3 ATS in Tuscaloosa. It’s also 7-0 at home in conference play, winning by an average of almost 19 points per game. I’m betting on the Tide maintaining that stellar home record on the back of an elite offensive performance.
