College Basketball Best Bets - 2/13 Slate
My time at Lineups has come to a close, and I’m on the hunt for more professional opportunities in the sports writing space. In the meantime, with the college basketball calendar heating up and March Madness just around the corner, I figured there’s no better time to bring back the Wayne’s World of Sports blog than right now. In this article, I’ll cover my four favorite bets on the board for the Tuesday college basketball slate on February 13th. Let’s get to work.
Iowa State at Cincinnati
We should see a defensive slugfest in this Big 12 matchup as Iowa State and Cincinnati have two of the best defenses in the conference. They’re both top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. However, Iowa State’s stifling defense hasn’t been nearly the same on the road.
The Cyclones are 362nd in Haslametrics’ away-from-home metric as their defense drops from 33rd in eFG% at home to 279th on the road. Concerningly, they’re also 350th in defensive rebound rate on the road while Cincinnati is 25th in offensive rebound rate at home - expect some second-chance opportunities for the Bearcats.
Cincinnati handled themselves very well against Houston on Saturday, finishing the first half on an impressive 19-4 run to take a lead at halftime. However, they lost another close heartbreaker, which has been a common theme in conference play - they’re 2-6 in conference games decided by 5 or fewer points. The Bearcats are 341st in KenPom’s luck ratings, and I’m betting on that luck turning around on Tuesday night.
Best Bet: Cincinnati ML
Ohio State at Wisconsin
Two weeks ago, Wisconsin was a No. 2 seed in Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology. Then, they lost four straight games, and it feels like the sky is falling in Madison. However, we should expect positive regression for the Badgers off this recent stretch. Across those four losses, they shot just 25% from 3, and they’re a 34% shooting team this year.
Ohio State’s defense provides a perfect opportunity for the Wisconsin offense to right the ship as the Buckeyes are in the 27th percentile in PPP allowed in the half-court per Synergy. In particular, they are awful at defending the 3, ranking in the 7th percentile for PPP allowed to spot-up attempts. When Ohio State has been on the road, they rank third-worst in the country allowing opponents to hit 47% of their 3-point attempts.
Overall, Ohio State is 0-6 in true road games, including a 25-point loss to Northwestern and a 14-point loss to Nebraska. They’re 342nd in eFG% allowed on the road, and Wisconsin should have a ton of success on offense in a kitchen sink spot where Greg Gard will throw everything in his playbook at the Buckeyes.
Coming off a double overtime win over Maryland, it would be natural for Ohio State to take their foot off the gas as they’re back on the road, and they’re still a team that has stunk for most of the season. Chris Holtmann’s job is in serious jeopardy, and this looks like an awesome buy-low, sell-high (ish?) spot for these teams.
Best Bet: Wisconsin -9
Colorado State at San Diego State
Coming off a tough overtime loss to Nevada, San Diego State returns home for a crucial Mountain West contest against Colorado State. The Aztecs are tied for second in the Mountain West with a 7-4 conference record, and these next two home games are crucial leading up to a matchup against conference-leading Utah State.
Colorado State is one of the teams tied at 7-4 in conference play after four straight wins. However, three of those four wins came at home, including their 79-71 win over San Diego State. The Rams benefitted from a stark free throw advantage in that game, getting 22 foul shot attempts compared to just 7 for the Aztecs. The Rams rank just 342nd in free throw rate on the road this season, so I’d expect that to be corrected.
San Diego State’s defense has been outstanding this season, as expected under Brian Dutcher. In conference play, they lead all Mountain West teams in both adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. Dutcher’s stifling defense led the Aztecs on a run to the NCAA Championship last season, and it’s back in business this year.
The defense has been particularly stout at Viejas Arena, where they’re 9th in adjusted efficiency. That stout defense has led them to an 11-0 home record this season. Their five conference wins have come by a staggering 16 points per game, as well. Meanwhile, Colorado State is 1-4 on the road in conference play.
Bet on San Diego State’s defense standing tall at home in this conference matchup as they bounce back off a loss and get revenge on a Colorado State team that has become overvalued in the market.
Best Bet: San Diego State -5.5
New Mexico at Nevada
When these teams played earlier this season, New Mexico stomped Nevada 89-55 in a game where everything went right. However, Nevada is 3-0 since that game including two impressive wins over ranked opponents in Utah State and San Diego State. Now, they host New Mexico in Reno for a late-night Mountain West special.
Nevada has an excellent defense, ranking 33rd in adjusted efficiency, and Kenan Blackshear is a menace on that end of the floor. The Wolf Pack is in the 86th percentile for guarded jump shots per Synergy and is top 25 in field goal percentage allowed on 3-pointers and near-proximity shots, forcing opponents into contested jumpers.
New Mexico doesn’t have a Quad 1 or 2 win on the road this season - their four road wins in conference play were against New Mexico State, Air Force, San Jose State, and Wyoming, three of whom are outside the top 220 teams in NET. Meanwhile, Nevada is 12-1 at home this season, including three wins over top 50 teams by NET.
While Kenan Blackshear and Jarod Davis are the typical heroes for Nevada, Nick Davidson has become a real impact player for the Wolf Pack, averaging 20.3 points per game during this current three-game win streak. With Davidson adding a new wrinkle to the offense and Nevada already boasting an outstanding defense, I love this revenge spot for them to tack on another home win.
