Previewing the Final Week of the Premier League Season
It all comes down to this. One week from today, on Sunday July 26th, the 2019-20 Premier League season will finally be over. It’s been a weird one for sure, with the COVID-19 pandemic taking away four months of play from March to July. Liverpool also won their first EPL title in 30 years - who could have seen that coming? Well, Schwartz did of course, but as a Manchester United fan it’s sad to see the Reds grab their 19th title, moving them one away from tying my Red Devils for the most titles in Premier League history. Thankfully, this is the best I’ve felt about the United side in quite some time, perhaps since Sir Alex Ferguson graced the sidelines (other than the unfortunate result in the FA Cup Semi-Final). Sure, Liverpool already wrapped up the title race, but this still stands as a massive final week of play in the Prem for several teams, including my beloved Red Devils. Let’s start by breaking down what’s at stake for the final week of the season.
UEFA Champions League spots: The top four teams in the Premier League table qualify for the UCL group stages next season, although five teams could qualify under the following scenarios: Premier League team wins the UCL (Man. City are still alive); Premier League team wins the Europa League (Man. United and Wolves are still alive). Liverpool and Man. City have already locked up UCL spots and the other two spots are currently occupied by Chelsea and Leicester City, although Manchester United, Tottenham, and Wolves are still in position to finish inside the top five. Leicester have already played 37 games, as have Tottenham, so their top six spots are very much up-in-the-air.
UEFA Europa League spots: The fifth-placed team in the EPL automatically qualifies for the Europa League next season, unless five teams make the UCL. If five teams make the UCL, then the sixth-placed team will qualify for the Europa League. If Chelsea wins the FA Cup, then the seventh-placed team in the EPL will qualify for the Europa League as Chelsea is all-but guaranteed to finish inside the top six. However, if Arsenal wins the FA Cup, they will snatch a Europa League spot despite them being longshots to finish inside the top seven at this point. That would be a crushing blow to Wolves/Sheffield United who have a strong chance to finish seventh and grab a Europa League spot at this point. The last scenario to be cognizant of is that if Manchester United or Wolves were to win the Europa League and not finish inside the top seven of the table, eight teams could potentially qualify for European action. Make sense? Yeah, I figured - it’s confusing as hell. I’m going to break down the remaining sides who can qualify for European play, including upcoming fixtures and any noteworthy injuries, which will hopefully help serve as a guide to this wild week of final Prem action.
Already qualified for UEFA Champions League: Liverpool, Manchester City
Chelsea
3rd-place,
63 points, +15 GD;
remaining fixtures: Liverpool (away, 7/22), Wolves (home, 7/26)
Notable injuries: Christian Pulisic should be ready to play Liverpool on Wednesday, N’Golo Kante unclear
Chelsea are pretty much guaranteed a spot in Europe for next season, and their FA Cup Final appearance won’t change that. The side’s 1-0 win over Norwich guaranteed them a top-six spot in the Premier League table and was massively important after their 3-0 loss to Sheffield. However, the Blues are in a dogfight for a UCL spot with Leicester City and Manchester United both just one point behind them. Chelsea’s fate is in their own hands as two wins against Liverpool and Wolves will lock them into the Champions League for next year. Earlier this season, a win over Liverpool at Anfield would have been an impossible proposition, but Liverpool are coming off an embarrassing loss to Arsenal and dropped points at home to Burnley the game before that, so a Chelsea win shouldn’t be ruled out on Wednesday. Liverpool’s motivation since clinching the Premier League title seems to be lacking. That won’t be an issue for a Wolves side still dead set on landing a top six spot in the table, although Chelsea will have the added benefit of taking them on at home. The last time Chelsea played Wolves, back in September, the Blues came away with a 5-2 victory behind a Tammy Abraham hat trick. Abraham has fallen out of form since then, though, and both teams are pretty different since that game. Chelsea’s fate will likely come down to the health of Christian Pulisic and N’Golo Kante, arguably their two most important players who have been banged up as of late. Even if Chelsea come away with no points against Liverpool and Wolves, they only need Manchester United to beat Leicester City to secure a UCL spot.
Leicester City
4th-place,
62 points, +28 GD;
remaining fixtures: Manchester United (home 7/26)
Notable injuries: James Maddison, Ben Chilwell, Christian Fuchs out for the remainder of the season; Marc Albrighton doubtful vs Manchester United
Leicester City had a golden opportunity to move into third place when they took on Tottenham on Sunday, and their possession advantage (70%-30%) and shot advantage (18-6) both would have suggested their victory, but Harry Kane came up with a big brace and led his team to a 3-0 win. The Foxes will now enter a must-win game against Manchester United on Friday, barring a surprising United loss to West Ham. It’s worth noting that Leicester City do hold a goal differential advantage over Chelsea, so they could secure a top-four spot if the Blues lose both of their games this week (an unlikely result). The Foxes’ elite goal differential this season has largely been a product of Jamie Vardy’s continued excellence - he leads the race for the Premier League Golden Boot at the moment with 23 goals. Manchester United had been unbeaten in 19 games heading into their FA Cup loss to Chelsea, and a frustrating loss like that has a way of spurring top-notch play out of a talented side. Leicester will have to work hard to knock off United on the last day of the season, although the game being at home is certainly beneficial. If the Foxes miss out on a top-four spot at the hands of Manchester United, they will be rooting hard for the Red Devils in the remainder of the Europa League - if United win the Europa League, then five EPL teams will qualify for the Champions League. Leicester have had chances to put a stranglehold on a UCL spot but I’m not sure they’ve done enough as we enter the final week.
Manchester United
5th-place,
62 points, +28 GD;
remaining fixtures: West Ham (home 7/22), Leicester City (away 7/26)
Notable injuries: Luke Shaw questionable, Eric Bailly out
Manchester United have looked like a completely different team this season after Bruno Fernandes joined the fold. In the 2020 portion of the Premier League season, the Red Devils outpace all other teams with 28 points and a spotless 8-win, 4-draw, 0-loss record. In those 12 Premier League games, Fernandes has 7 goals and 7 assists. The arrival of Bruno has helped unlock the attacking talents of Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial as both players have seen a great run of form as of late. Bruno has also enabled Paul Pogba to fully embrace the box-to-box role which he is best at doing. Along with Rashford and Martial, Mason Greenwood has made a splash as an ambidextrous 18-year old forward. The trio of Rashford, Martial, and Greenwood have combined for 26 league goals this season. When this team is playing at its best, it is capable of beating any side in England. The home game against West Ham this week provides a perfect bounce-back opportunity after United’s depressing loss to Chelsea in the FA Cup Semi-Final. However, I’m concerned about this team’s lack of rest before playing Leicester City on Sunday. The Foxes will have a full week to prepare for their home match against United while the Red Devils will be playing two games in four days. Ideally, United will come out firing against the 15th-placed West Ham and coast to a home victory like they did against Sheffield and Bournemouth after the restart. The Leicester game is going to take everything they have, and it feels like they’re well aware of that given the limited playing time today for important players like Anthony Martial, Paul Pogba, and Mason Greenwood.
Tottenham
6th-place,
58 points, +14 GD;
remaining fixtures: Crystal Palace (away 7/26)
Notable injuries: Dele Alli expected to play vs Crystal Palace, Eric Dier returns from suspension vs Crystal Palace
Tottenham has to be thrilled about its 3-0 win over Leicester City on Sunday that puts them firmly in the top six heading into the final week of the season. With just one game remaining, though, the Spurs are mathematically unable to secure a top-five spot. The only scenario in which Tottenham could qualify for UCL is if Manchester City wins the Champions League this season (yeah right) and Manchester United wins the Europa League (possible). Still, a rocky season that included several injuries and a coaching switch would end on a good note if Tottenham secures a UEL spot for next season. Crystal Palace had a promising start to the restart of the EPL season, beating Bournemouth on the road 2-0, and then proceeded to lose six straight games. Palace is not in the relegation zone and won’t have any real motivation to play hard against Tottenham on Sunday, so Spurs are likely to end their campaign with a win. Spurs can lock in a Europa League spot on Monday if Sheffield United lose to Everton.
Wolves
7th-place,
58 points, +11 GD;
remaining fixtures: Crystal Palace (home 7/20), Chelsea (away 7/26)
Notable injuries: Adama Traore playing through dislocated shoulder (because he’s a badass); Leander Dendoncker, Matt Doherty, Jonny, Pedro Neto should be available this week
The Wolves are coming off perhaps their toughest stretch of the season as they have come away with just four points in four games in twelve days, although they’ll be coming off five days of rest when they take on a flailing Crystal Palace side. The Wolves winger Adama Traore is the strongest player in the Premier League and he’s showing it with his ability to play right through a dislocated shoulder. This side has seen minor injuries to a handful of players who they hope will be ready to go for their fixtures this week. Things would have to get pretty wacky this week for Wolves to qualify for the Champions League, although it’s not totally out of the question and they are still alive in Europa League - if they win the UEL they automatically qualify for UCL next season. With two wins against Palace and Chelsea, Wolves would finish no lower than sixth place which would secure them a UEL spot. However, if Chelsea win the FA Cup, Wolves could finish seventh and still make the UEL next season.
Sheffield United
8th-place,
54 points, +3 GD;
remaining fixtures: Everton (home 7/20), Southampton (away 7/26)
Notable injuries: none
What a season it’s been for Chris Wilder’s Sheffield United side which is making its first Premier League appearance since 2007. Frankly, the Blades have already exceeded all expectations for this season and European play would just be the cherry on top. Sheffield does still have a great chance to qualify for Europa League, although they’ll need some help from the Spurs and Wolves’ opponents. Given the fact that Crystal Palace is on the docket this week for both of those teams, Sheffield is banking on a quick turnaround in form out of a struggling outfit. If Sheffield is able to win its two remaining games, though, it would have a great chance to finish seventh in the table (provided Wolves drop points against Crystal Palace or Chelsea). If Chelsea win the FA Cup, the seventh-placed team in the EPL will qualify for the Europa League. Sheffield is hoping to be that team.
Arsenal
10th-place,
53 points, +8 GD;
remaining fixtures: Aston Villa (away 7/21), Watford (home 7/26)
Notable injuries: Mesut Ozil could return against Aston Villa, Gabriel Martinelli out for the season, Bernd Leno likely out for the season
It’s been a weird and frustrating and exhausting season for Arsenal, and yet they’re still very much in the mix to qualify for European play next season. The easier path for them is now to win the FA Cup after their shocking 2-0 win over Manchester City in the semi-final. The Gunners can also destroy an entire fan base with a win in the FA Cup final as they would snag the remaining UEL place out from the grasp of whoever the seventh-placed team is. Arsenal has a ton of issues on the defensive end and have largely let Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s inspired 20-goal season (in EPL games) go to waste. If Arsenal can beat both Aston Villa and Watford, they can potentially put themselves in position for the seventh spot in the table (depending on how Wolves and Sheffield do in their games). This would set up a promising scenario in which Arsenal could not miss out on UEL - they would either qualify by beating Chelsea in the FA Cup final or by finishing seventh in the table. However, knowing Arsenal, they’re surely going to find a way to drop points in their Prem action this week before suffering an agonizing defeat to Chelsea. Sorry, Gunners fans.
My final Premier League predictions: 1) Liverpool, 2) Manchester City, 3) Chelsea, 4) Manchester United, 5) Leicester City, 6) Wolves, 7) Tottenham, 8) Arsenal, 9) Sheffield United, 10) Burnley
UCL teams: Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, Manchester United
UEL teams: Leicester City, Wolves, Tottenham (if Chelsea win the FA Cup)
Relegation Race
Norwich City have had a dreadful season with just five wins in 37 games and are locked into relegation. Aston Villa and Bournemouth are set to join them in their trip down to the English Championship for the time being, but that could change this week. Bournemouth are in a tough spot as they have already played 37 games and have a significant goal differential disadvantage. In order for the Cherries to not be relegated, they would need Watford to lose to Manchester City and Arsenal by more than four goals combined. That’s not impossible, but the odds are stacked against Bournemouth. Aston Villa are in a slightly better position having played 36 games; they have games against Arsenal and West Ham this week. The Lions are in a tough spot in regards to goal differential, though, which could prove problematic for them. They will need to have a pretty remarkable week in order to avoid relegation.
My predictions: Aston Villa, Bournemouth, and Norwich City are relegated
Promotion Race
Leeds United have already clinched promotion as well as the English Championship title this season and will be returning to the Premier League for the first time since 2003. The other two promotion spots are very much up-for-grabs heading into this week with West Brom, Brentford, and Fulham in a tight race for the places. West Brom are coming off a disappointing loss to 18th-place Huddersfield, a game in which a win would have locked in a promotion spot. West Brom will play QPR, who is currently the 14th-place team, on Wednesday. Brentford have the best goal differential in the English Championship and will take on Barnsley this week, a team currently set to be relegated to EFL League One. Fulham currently find themselves on the outside looking in on the top three and have the toughest matchup out of anyone in the top four this week against Wigan, the 13th-placed team.
My predictions: Leeds United, West Brom, and Brentford qualify for the Premier League
