Premier League Matchday 38

On Sunday, the Premier League will reach its much-anticipated conclusion. Liverpool have had the EPL Championship wrapped up for quite some time now, but there’s still plenty at stake on the final matchday with Champions League and Europa League spots up for grabs, as well as a couple of teams hoping to escape relegation. All 20 Premier League teams will be in action at the same time with plenty of long-term implications. Which games carry the most weight on Sunday?

(4) Chelsea vs (6) Wolves

What’s at stake? Chelsea currently hold a Champions League spot but that’s still very much up-in-the-air. The worst result for Chelsea would be a loss to Wolves as their goal differential (+13) falls behind both the goal differential for Manchester United and Leicester City (both +28). If Man Utd and Leicester City draw in their matchup and Chelsea loses to Wolves, they would fall to #5 in the standings. Chelsea just needs a draw against Wolves, or either Man Utd or Leicester to win that game, to guarantee a UCL spot. Wolves need to hang onto the #6 spot to secure Europa League play for next season, unless Chelsea wins the FA Cup. If Chelsea wins the FA Cup, the #7 team will qualify for UEL. In order to secure the #6 spot Wolves need to finish ahead of Tottenham who play a struggling Crystal Palace side.

Chelsea Premier League form: LWWLWL

Wolves Premier League form: WLLWDW

Injuries? Chelsea - Fikayo Tomori (out), Billy Gilmour (out), N’Golo Kante (questionable), Christian Pulisic (probable); Wolves - none

My prediction: 2-2 draw

(5) Leicester City vs (3) Manchester United

What’s at stake? Manchester United currently sit in 3rd place after their draw this week against West Ham and will now need either a draw or a win at Leicester to qualify for the Champions League. If Man Utd lose to Leicester, they can still qualify for UCL if Wolves beat Chelsea due to their goal differential advantage. Leicester City also have a goal differential advantage over Chelsea, so they can qualify for UCL with a draw and a Chelsea loss. If Manchester United or Leicester City miss out on the top four, they can still qualify for UCL if Manchester City win the UCL this season. Man Utd’s other path to UCL qualification is through winning the UEL this season.

Leicester Premier League form: LWDLWL

Manchester United Premier League form: WWWDWD

Injuries? Manchester United - Axel Tuanzebe (out), Phil Jones (out), Luke Shaw (probable), Eric Bailly (questionable), Aaron Wan-Bissaka (probable); Leicester City - James Maddison (out), Ben Chilwell (out), Ricardo Pereira (out), Christian Fuchs (out), Daniel Amartey (out), Caglar Soyuncu (out), Marc Albrighton (probable)

My prediction: 3-1 Manchester United

All of the permutations for Chelsea-Wolves and Leicester-Man Utd. with how the table would play out

(12) Southampton vs (8) Sheffield United

What’s at stake? After the Blades’ losses to Everton and Leicester City over the past week, they find themselves on the outside looking in on European play. This season has still seen Sheffield outperform expectations, but their disappointing recent results will end the campaign on a sour note. Southampton’s spot has already been solidified as the team is well clear of relegation but can’t qualify for European play.

Southampton Premier League form: WWDDDW

Sheffield United Premier League form: WDWWLL

Injuries? Southampton - Sofiane Boufal (out), Moussa Djenepo (out), Jan Bednarek (probable); Sheffield - Luke Freeman (out)

My prediction: 2-1 Sheffield United

(13) Newcastle vs (1) Liverpool

What’s at stake? Liverpool clinched the Premier League title a few matches ago and can no longer break the 100-point threshold. With a win against Newcastle, they could win their 32nd game which would tie them with Manchester City’s historic mark over the past two seasons. Newcastle are currently 10 points clear of relegation and are can finish no higher than 13th in the table.

Newcastle Premier League form: WDLLLD

Liverpool Premier League form: LWWDLW

Injuries? Liverpool - Jordan Henderson (out), Joel Matip (out); Newcastle - Jamaal Lascelles (out), Fabian Schar (out), Ciaran Clark (out), Paul Dummett (out), Florian Lejeune (out), Emil Krafth (doubtful)

My prediction: 4-1 Liverpool

(15) West Ham vs (17) Aston Villa

What’s at stake? Aston Villa find themselves just ahead of the relegation line at the moment due to their goal differential of -26, one goal better than Watford and Bournemouth who are both -27. Their shocking win over Arsenal may just save the season. The Lions do have an easier matchup than Watford and Bournemouth, though, who play Arsenal and Everton, respectively. If they secure any points against West Ham they will lock in a Premier League spot for next season. West Ham can finish no higher than 15th in the table and no lower than 16th. This could be a farewell performance for a midfielder on either side who have had excellent campaigns and have been linked with summer transfers - Jack Grealish (Aston Villa) and Declan Rice (West Ham).

West Ham Premier League form: WDLWWD

Aston Villa Premier League form: LLLWDW

Injuries? West Ham - Jarrod Bowen (questionable), Aaron Cresswell (questionable); Aston Villa - Ahmed Elmohamady (out), Neil Taylor (questionable), Wesley (out), Tom Heaton (out), Bjorn Engels (out)

My prediction: 1-0 West Ham

(9) Burnley vs (16) Brighton

What’s at stake? Burnley have locked in a top-ten spot in the table which is a significant improvement on their 15th-placed finish last season. Sean Dyche is a dark horse for manager of the year as he has led Burnley to their most wins in a season in Premier League history with 15 victories. Brighton’s draw against Southampton put them solidly clear of relegation.

Burnley Premier League form: WDWDDW

Brighton Premier League form: LWLLDD

Injuries? Burnley - Jack Cork (out), Ashley Barnes (out), Ben Gibson (out), Ben Lee (out), Matthew Lowton (out), Charlie Taylor (doubtful); Brighton - Jose Izquierdo (out), Steven Alzate (out), Adam Webster (probable)

My prediction: 2-0 Burnley

(10) Arsenal vs (18) Watford

What’s at stake? When I wrote my preview for the final week of the season, I spoke about how a UEL spot was well within reach for Arsenal with two wins against relegation sides. Then they went and lost to one of those relegation sides, Aston Villa, in one of the more shocking results of the season - the Gunners didn’t register a single shot on target in that game. Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal have been maddeningly inconsistent and even a win against Watford wouldn’t do them much good in their race for European play. They now have to win the FA Cup to secure a spot in the UEL. As for Watford, a win here would be a massive result as they look to avoid being relegated but they haven’t won on the last day of the season since the 2011-2012 campaign. Watford can avoid relegation with a win and an Aston Villa loss. Neither of these teams are in particularly great form, either, and both sides have some significant absences to navigate.

Arsenal Premier League form: WWDLWL

Watford Premier League form: LLWWLL

Injuries? Arsenal - Matteo Guendouzi (out), Mesut Ozil (out), Bernd Leno (out), Calum Chambers (out), Pablo Mari (out), Gabriel Martinelli (out), Shkodran Mustafi (out), Reiss Nelson (doubtful); Watford - Gerard Deulofeu (out), Daryl Janmaat (out), Isaac Success (out), Etienne Capoue (out)

My prediction: 1-1 draw

(2) Manchester City vs (20) Norwich City

What’s at stake? Not much. In fact, this is likely the game with the least implications on the day. Manchester City can’t finish anywhere but 2nd as they look to add to their league-leading +62 goal differential while Norwich could win this game and still finish many points and many goals behind the 19th-placed team. It’s been a brutal season for the Canaries. The biggest thing to watch in this game is Kevin De Bruyne’s quest to dethrone Thierry Henry as the Premier League’s assist king - KDB needs two more on the final day to break the record.

Manchester City Premier League form: WLWWWW

Norwich City Premier League form: LWWWLW

Injuries? Manchester City - Sergio Aguero (out); Norwich City - Emiliano Buendia (red card), Josip Drmic (red card), Grant Haley (out), Sam Byram (out), Moritz Leitner (out), Alex Tettey (out), Timm Klose (out), Christoph Zimmerman (probable)

My prediction: 7-0 Manchester City

(14) Crystal Palace vs (7) Tottenham Hotspur

What’s at stake? Tottenham have won their last three Premier League games but still have no mathematical path to UCL play next season. They can still qualify for the UEL, though, if they can beat Crystal Palace and see Wolves drop points against Chelsea. Chelsea still have a lot to play for, so this is well within the range of potential outcomes. If Spurs can’t reach the 6th spot, they’ll be rooting for Chelsea once again to beat Arsenal in the FA Cup Final and send the 7th-placed team to the UEL. Tottenham’s chances of UEL play next season hinge almost entirely on Chelsea. As for Crystal Palace, a win could see them finish 13th in the table but they can’t finish any lower than 14th.

Crystal Palace Premier League form: LLLLLL

Tottenham Hotspur Premier League form: LWDWWW

Injuries? Cyrstal Palace James Tomkins (out), Gary Cahill (out), Mamadou Sakho (out), Patrick van Aanholt (out), Luka Milivojevic (questionable), Christian Benteke (out, suspension); Spurs - Tanguy Ndombele (out), Dele Alli (probable), Eric Dier (probable)

My prediction: 2-1 Tottenham

(11) Everton vs (19) Bournemouth

What’s at stake? Everton can’t finish any higher than 11th or any lower than 12th. Carlo Ancelotti’s side has disappointed this season and has not lived up to high preseason expectations. As for their opponent, Bournemouth is currently a relegation side, but a win against Everton and losses for Aston Villa and Bournemouth would see the Cherries move out of the relegation zone. That’s not the most likely result, but it’s certainly a possibility.

Everton Premier League form: WLDLDW

Bournemouth Premier League form: LLDWLL

Injuries? Everton - Mason Holgate (out), Yerry Mina (out), Fabian Delph (out), Jean-Phillipe Gbamin (out), Moise Kean (probable); Bournemouth - Adam Smith (probable), Nathan Ake (questionable), Charlie Daniels (out), Chris Mepham (out), Simon Francis (out)

My prediction: 1-0 Everton

Predictions Roundup

Chelsea vs Wolves: 2-2 draw

Leicester vs Manchester United: 3-1 Man Utd

Southampton vs Sheffield United: 1-1 draw

Newcastle vs Liverpool: 4-1 Liverpool

West Ham vs Aston Villa: 1-1 draw

Burnley vs Brighton: 2-0 Burnley

Arsenal vs Watford: 2-1 Watford

Manchester City vs Norwich: 7-0 Man City

Crystal Palace vs Tottenham: 2-1 Spurs

Everton vs Bournemouth: 1-0 Everton

My Final Premier League predictions

1. Liverpool - 99 points

2. Manchester City - 81 points

3. Manchester United - 66 points

4. Chelsea - 64 points

5. Leicester City - 63 points

6. Tottenham - 61 points

7. Wolves - 60 points

8. Burnley - 57 points

9. Sheffield United - 55 points

10. Arsenal - 54 points

11. Everton - 52 points

12. Southampton - 49 points

13. Newcastle - 44 points

14. Crystal Palace - 42 points

15. West Ham - 41 points

16. Brighton - 38 points

17. Watford - 37 points

18. Aston Villa - 35 points

19. Bournemouth - 31 points

20. Norwich - 21 points

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