Way-Too-Early 2020-21 Premier League Projections
By: Schwartz
Now that Liverpool have officially been named 2019-20 Premier League Champions, it’s time to look ahead to what might happen in next year’s Prem campaign. Liverpool ran away with the title this year, but with injured players returning for Man City, stars old and new finally seeing the pitch together for Man United, and a sudden influx of offensive firepower to Chelsea, it’s looking like next year’s race will be much, much tighter. Next season figures to be one of the most fun in recent memory, so it’s never too early to talk about the teams and players whose performances we’ll be reminiscing about a year from now. So, let’s start with the most important part of any preview: the projected league table.
Projected 2020-21 Premier League Final Table (Top half):
The Defending Champs
Yes, I do expect the current champs to successfully defend their title. This team is hyper-talented, extremely resilient, showcase incredible teamwork and are possibly the best-managed squad in Europe, so they are more than capable of following up 30 title-free years with a back-to-back. However, with a (hopefully) more successful European Campaign to attend to, and a gaggle of solid competitors, I don’t see them picking up points at a historic pace for a third straight season. There is, of course, regression to consider, as we saw in what many thought would be year three of Man City racking up an ungodly amount of points, as they are currently on pace for a very solid, but unspectacular by their recent standards, 77 points.
The Fallen Juggernaut
Speaking of City, the future is not nearly as bright as the past. The franchise’s greatest player of all time, Sergio Aguero, is undergoing knee surgery at age-32, which could spell the end of his remarkable, historic run at the Ethiad. In Aguero’s absence this week, manager Pep Guardiola trotted out a bizarre, three-wing front line without a true striker, and the results were less than optimal. Leroy Sané also looks to be on the way out, as could the team’s current best player, Kevin De Bruyne, who hinted that he might look to transfer if City’s two-year UEFA suspension is upheld. Ah, yes, the suspension. Despite all of these potential flaws, City are a highly talented and well-managed bunch, and should manage a UCL-level amount of points. However, they still won’t be participating in European competition, as they have been suspended for two seasons. Tough luck!
Manchester’s New rulers
One of the teams that I expect to fill the void created by the fall of City is their very own crosstown rivals- Manchester United. One England’s biggest clubs throughout history, United have recently been mired in a rough stretch since the retirement of legendary manager Sir Alex Ferguson. However, I think that the beginning of the end is near in terms of their struggles, and next season figures to be a great one for Manchester’s real team. Paul Pogba finally came back from injury since the end of the Coronavirus hiatus, and has been an enormous difference-maker in his first couple of matches against quality opposition. Along with Anthony Martial, Marcus Rashford, and newer acquisitions Bruno Fernandes, Harry Maguire, Aaron Wan-Bissaka and more, Pogba will aim to bring United back to the heights to which they are accustomed. They’ll just have to overcome the butterfingers of David De Gea in the net.
The London Squads
The last two beneficiaries of City’s decline that we’ll take a look at are two London foes- Chelsea and Tottenham. Chelsea are a solid squad, who already seem to be in contention for a European spot this season, and only figure to rise with the additions of Hakim Ziyech and Timo Werner from Ajax and RB Leipzig, respectively. Spurs, on the other hand, are in a bit of a down year after a handful of top-four finishes, but I believe that with a full season of Jose Mourinho in control, and a healthier Harry Kane, the Spurs will be able to come closer to securing a UCL berth. Still, in my projection, they only seal the deal because of City’s suspension- I doubt the Great One will complain though, as we all know how much he relishes the opportunity to play European football.
The Europa League Sides
Leicester City were one of the pleasant surprises of this Prem season, as they took advantage of the fact that most of the traditional top-six of clubs were in serious disarray, to vault into second place for much of the year before settling in third. They seem poised to compete in next year’s Champions league but a year from now, they may not be so lucky. Slight regression to the mean from Leicester paired with improvement from the aforementioned typical top-six might spell trouble for the Foxes, who I see as likely to find themselves qualifying for the Europa league next time around.
Amazingly, the Europa league berth that I see coming for Arsenal a year from now would be an improvement, as where the Gunners currently stand, they won’t be playing any sort of European football next season. They have shown promising strides, however, and if they’re able to shore up some of their deficiencies on the defensive end, they should be able to salvage a Europa league appearance on the strength of their attack and promising youth.
There hasn’t been much to brag about on the other side of Liverpool this year, as the Toffees have struggled mightily and don’t even sit in the top half of the Premier League table. However, over the second half of the season, they have shown some promise under former Napoli boss Carlo Ancelotti, who joined the club just before Christmas. I think the veteran Italian manager will be able to do great things with this squad with a full year to coach them. An appearance in the Europa league- gifted by City’s European suspension, and my projection that they will win the Carabao Cup- would be a really nice first step.
Projected 2020-21 Premier league Golden Boot leaders
The top contenders
This group of players includes two men who have won at least a share of the past four Golden Boots, and one total newcomer to the prem. We’ll start with Harry Kane, who won the award two consecutive times, only to be denied a three-peat by Mo Salah’s record-setting 32-goal campaign. What often gets overshadowed is that in that same year, the English striker scored 30 (!!!) goals of his own. 30! That’s an insane number, and it came on the heels of 25- and 29-goal years, both of which won him a golden boot. With some luck, Kane will be healthier than he has been as of late, and return to being Tottenham’s target man and penalty taker. It’s easy to forget that the Spurs and English national team’s captain is just 26 years old- he has far more left in the tank, and I think that next year’s Golden Boot could be coming his way
And then there’s Salah. Despite the critics who labeled him a one-season wonder, it’s hard to deny that the Egyptian King has been the best player in the Prem since his English return almost three years ago. In his first two seasons, he has netted a PFA player of the year award, the Prem scoring record, two consecutive golden boots, and led the league in goal contributions once. Salah is on pace to come in at least second place in both goals and contributions once again this season en route to Liverpool’s first-ever Premier League title. While it’s hard to pick him to top the league in scoring yet again due to Liverpool’s egalitarian goalscoring within their elite front three, it’s even harder to rule him out, as he has shown that he is lethal from anywhere on the pitch, and has the ability to score at a rate that few players can.
Now we have the English youngster, Jadon Sancho, who is rumored by so many to be making the journey to play in his home country. Specifically, the Dortmund star is linked to a Manchester United move, as he has been for years. If he comes over, Sancho is actually my pick to lead the Prem in total goal contributions, as he has shown both elite scoring and passing ability during his time at Dortmund, and his equal ability to create for either himself or others is one of the reasons I expect United to be so improved a year from now. I struggle with placing him above two established English goalscoring machines, especially since it’s hard to take Bundesliga stats seriously in comparison to Prem numbers. Still, as one of the most rapidly improving talents in the sport, it would be foolish to rule him out if he does indeed make the move to Manchester, as I expect him to.
Serious scoring threats
These next three players find themselves out of the top tier of contenders for reasons entirely out of their control- team reasons. For Mané, it is the fact that it’s hard to imagine him outpacing Salah from a scoring perspective while the two share the same pitch. For Werner, it’s concerns about how often he’ll play early in the season as he is integrated into what is suddenly a loaded Chelsea attacking group. And for Aubameyang, it’s simply the fact that his team isn’t all that good and might not be able to score that many goals. For all of them, frankly, there’s the danger that they won’t be taking their team’s penalty kicks, with plenty of other options to rack up goals from the spot. All of that being said, these are three phenomenal talents who could win England’s golden boot, and hardly anyone would be shocked. Werner is currently tearing up the Bundesliga with RB Leipzig to the tune of 26 goals and 8 assists in 33 appearances , and has vaulted Leipzig up to third in the table. He has displayed impressive versatility playing both up top as a striker, and outside on the wing, and will bring this wide array of talents to London in the hope of scoring even more goals next year. Aubameyang and Mané actually each won a share of last year’s award, along with Salah, and have continued their strong play this season. Auba currently sits tied with Salah again, this time for second in the Golden Boot race with 17 scored thus far, while Mané has knocked in 15 to go along with 7 assists, and is seen as one of the favorites to be named PFA player of the year. As evidenced by winning the Golden Boot a year ago, they both clearly have the ability to top the league in goalscoring if they’re playing their best football, since they’ve already done it, and they could possibly be helped if it takes less goals to win the award in a given year, such as last season when it took just 22.
Manchester’s Dark Horses
These three goalscorers from Manchester’s two teams are players that I feel are in the right situation to score a ton of goals, but as players, they might not be quite up to the task of putting up a league-leading total. Sterling, figures to be the focal point of City’s attack in an Aguero-less world. However, he was supposedly “much improved” last season, but put up a goal and an assist less than he did the year before. A talented player to be sure, but I wonder how far he really is from his ceiling, and feel like a Golden Boot may not be in his near future. Speaking of the void left by Aguero, Gabriel Jesus figures to get the bulk of the minutes up top, if Pep decides to use a striker at all. He has had a fairly strong scoring rate in limited time for City, but as a less-established player, it’s really not for any of us to say that he can contend to be the Prem’s top scorer. And then there’s Marcus Rashford, who unlike Jesse Lingard is actually still pretty young at age 22. This season, United’s offense has largely focused on getting scoring looks for him and I think he will be a seriously important piece going forward. But if the addition of Sancho becomes a reality, as I’m treating it in this piece, I can’t imagine that Rashford will once again get the lion’s share of United’s shots on goal. Still, any of these three men could be beneficiaries of a “right place, right time” situation and shock us all by leading England’s top flight in scoring.
PFA Player of the year ballot
Paul Pogba, Midfield, Manchester United
Mohamed Salah, Forward, Liverpool
Kevin De Bruyne, Attacking Midfield, Manchester City
Jadon Sancho, Forward/Attacking Midfielder, Manchester United
N’Golo Kanté, Defensive Midfield, Chelsea
Harry Kane, Striker, Tottenham Hotspur
Trent Alexander-Arnold, Right Fullback, Liverpool
Bernardo Silva, Forward/Attacking Midfield, Manchester City
Timo Werner, Forward, Chelsea
Virgil Van Dijk, Centre-Back, Liverpool
10. Virgil Van Dijk, Centre-Back, Liverpool
For the discussion of my top picks for Prem Player of the Year, let’s start at the bottom, and with the current holder: Liverpool’s dominant centre-back, Virgil Van Dijk. The reason I have Big Virg, who has a serious claim as the best player in the Prem, this low is a simple concept: voter fatigue. The fact of the matter is that if you’re name isn’t Lionel or Cristiano, it’s tough to win the same award twice, as members of the football media love to stay trendy. To win this award as a second time, Virgil would likely have to convince voters that he has surpassed the already-insane standard he set in winning this award the first time- a particularly tall task since statistics for defenders are not always that indicative of performance. He’s truly made a high level of play seem routine, and the lack of flash that goes along with being a star centre-back is going to hurt him, as it did when he was criminally robbed of the 2019 Ballon D’Or in favor of Lionel Messi, who he had embarrassed in a head-to-head matchup about half a year before. Whatever.
9. Timo Werner, Forward, Chelsea
How the tides have turned for young Timo. Just a few weeks ago, he was expected to join Liverpool as more or less a glorified backup, to fill in for Salah and Mané during the upcoming African cup, and/or when one or both of them is inevitably injured. Now, he’s expected to be the face of a new-look Chelsea squad, and should be raining goals again just like he did in Germany. He’s going to make a splash in his first season in England, but a likely very egalitarian Chelsea squad, of which it’s not even clear he’s the best player (but more on that soon), will cost him a serious bid at this award.
8. Bernardo Silva, Forward/Attacking Midfield, Manchester City
Despite my complete and utter disdain for everything Manchester Football related, either blue or red, I actually really like Bernardo Silva. The Portuguese international is extremely creative in City’s midfield, and his steady play has been one of the constants that has kept City (more or less) running smoothly amid a handful of key injuries. The thing is, he just doesn’t put up that many stats, which isn’t his fault. It’s just not his role to score the ball, or even give the last pass before a goal. Other than the historic dominance shown by Virgil last season, and the utter weirdness that has contributed to Jordan Henderson’s award campaign this year (I’m a Liverpool fan and still think it’s madness, just for the record) you generally need numbers to be recognized as the best player in England, whether that’s fair or not.
7. Trent Alexander-Arnold, Right Fullback, Liverpool
Ahhhh Trent. I absolutely love this kid, he would actually be my personal vote for this year’s award if I had one. 12 assists- 12!- from a defensive position, is absolutely nuts, and it’s good for second in the league only behind Kevin De Bruyne’s ridiculous 16, which I’ll be discussing later. My point is, Trent fills a unique role, and it shows by the unique stats and highlights he puts up. Tell me the last 20-year-old fullback you saw taking setpiece strikes on goal for the world’s best team- and absolutely drilling them. It’s tough for a defender to win this award, but that’s really not what Trent is. He’s this weird fullback/midfielder/passing winger hybrid that only exists at Anfield as of right now, a role different than even the one that prime Marcelo occupied with Real Madrid. Trent isn’t my pick for this award, but if he plays similar football but scores a couple more goals, and Liverpool go top again, I wouldn’t be stunned to see him haul in yet another individual trophy for the Reds.
6. Harry Kane, Striker, Tottenham Hotspur
My case for Harry Kane is simple, and my case against him isn’t much more complicated. On a surface level, it’s easy to consider the projected Golden Boot winner as at least a top contender to be named the league’s player of the year. However, a handful of issues surround Kane’s candidacy. One is the fact that he scores an inordinate amount of his goals from the penalty spot, a blemish on his record in the eyes of many. Another is that while he is clearly an elite goalscorer, his assist totals really hurt his standing in terms of goal contribution. And the last-and by far the biggest issue- is that I’m simply not going to project that this award goes to a player on a fifth-place side. Yes, I know that Salah won it when the Reds came in fourth a couple of years ago, and that this is more or less the same since the Spurs would theoretically make the UCL anyways. But Mo literally made history by scoring 32 goals, while also being a top-ten assister in the Prem. And frankly I’m not sure how differently the voters saw the second, third, and fourth place teams given how close they were to each other, and how far they were from City in first place. If Kane wins the Golden Boot he will certainly be considered, but I feel that he will still fall short of being named England’s best player
5. N’Golo Kanté, Defensive Midfield, Chelsea
Earlier, I mentioned that Timo Werner would excel, but not be Chelsea’s best player. That distinction goes to The Blues’ wide-smiling, tackle-making, bike-loving, terrible-height-gene-having French midfielder. Often forgotten among the stars of the Premier League, possibly due to the flashier stats and styles of play of many of the forwards and attacking midfielders, Kanté is the rock in the middle of Chelsea’s midfield, and is absolutely key to the team’s success. His box-to-box effects cannot be overstated, as the difference between Chelsea when he plays and when he doesn’t is absolutely night and day. However, the reason we know that is that he’s had issues staying on the field, and if he doesn’t play well in excess of 30 matches, he will obviously not be taken seriously for this award.
4. Jadon Sancho, Forward/Attacking Midfielder, Manchester United
There’s really not enough room here to say all the nice things I’d like to about Jadon Sancho. If he does come over to United, he will be the perfect player to lead the huge club’s rebuild, as the young Englishman will instantly become one of the very faces of the Premier League. The kid can play in multiple roles on the field, and is equally comfortable setting up his teammates to score goals as he is knocking them in himself. He just turned 20 a couple months ago, and his improvement could continue to be extremely quick- there’s no telling how good he might be this time next year. But the scary thing is, he still might not be the best player on his own theoretical new team. In that case, he would still garner a serious amount of votes, but clearly not win this award.
3. Kevin De Bruyne, Attacking Midfield, Manchester City
I’m a good Liverpool fan. I’ll defend Salah’s superstardom to anyone who will listen, and I’m still complaining about the insane screw job that resulted in Messi taking home Virgil’s rightful Ballon D’Or. But I’d be lying if I told you that I believed, when everyone is healthy, that either of those two men is the best player in the Premier League. That distinction goes to Manchester City’s Belgian midfield maestro, Kevin De Bruyne. Granted, that “when everyone is healthy” has been quite the stipulation for KDB these past couple of seasons- his inability to consistently stay on the pitch is why you’ll catch me saying that Salah has had the best performance these past couple of seasons. Still, when he’s available, De Bruyne is the key cog in their offensive juggernaut, and his downright silly assist numbers show it. He can also score it too, as evidenced by his absolute thunderbolt of a free kick in City’s recent defeat to Chelsea. If City lose Aguero to surgery and possibly others to a UCL-suspension-related mass exodus, and Kevin (assuming he isn’t a part of said mass exodus) keeps the ship running, he will be a serious part of the Player of the Year discussion.
2. Mohamed Salah, Forward, Liverpool
What a season I’m projecting for Mo- second in goals, second in contributions, second in the Player of the Year race. But the important thing is first in the table, and that’s exactly where Salah’s scoring outburst has his Reds in my projections. A second straight title after a 30-year drought would be quite the exclamation point on Salah’s already absurd Liverpool résumé. His best statistical season since his record 32-goal campaign, paired with a league title for the Reds, would make Salah’s candidacy for this award hard to ignore. Of course, some still would, as he is still somehow labeled by some as a one season wonder, despite his consecutive Golden Boots and his current bid at a third, and the success he has guided Liverpool to. Salah, as well as his club and teammates in general, has made greatness seem a bit too expected. Last season, the words “down year” were tossed around far too much in regards to a player who knocked in 22 goals, won the Golden Boot, helped his team to 97 points in the Prem, and secured a European cup. This is part of the biggest issue with Salah’s candidacy- very little that he, or his team, can do will be viewed as exceptional or award-worthy. He will be among the league’s best once again, but fall short of this recognition in favor of someone who helps his team shock the world like Salah did two years ago.
1. Paul Pogba, Midfield, Manchester United
“Do you think Pogba is World-Class?”
What a bad question. Yet it’s one I’ve seen on many football debate pages, and one I’m extremely tired of. Yes, I think Paul Pogba is World Class. What more does the man have to do to prove himself? Win the World Cup? Dominate Serie A? Inject life into an otherwise-hapless Man U team every time he touches the pitch? The French midfielder can absolutely do it all on the pitch, and I’ve rarely seen a team more transformed by one player’s presence more than United is by Pogba’s- namely the new, Ole version of United. That’s key, as it was clear that as great as they both are at what they do, Pogba and Mourinho were often at odds and did not combine to create a good situation for Pogba to flourish. If he continues to facilitate the addition of all of United’s new pieces as well as he has in the short time we’ve seen him these past couple of weeks, to the extent where he vaults the club from a 60-point, 5th place season (current pace) to an 87-point, runner-up campaign, this award will be his. There is a lot of talent on United, but to the educated eye, it’s plain to see which player is the true engine for the team’s success. The top of the table will be crowded next year, and Man United’s ability to stay as high as they can will hinge largely upon Pogba’s play. If he’s healthy, I wouldn’t bet against him to get this team as high as they can possibly go.
Well, there you have it! This is what’s going to happen in next year’s Premier League. Hopefully, we’re lucky enough to get a season as exciting as the one I’ve detailed here, but after the past few months, as long as there’s football, particularly with fans in stadiums, I think we’ll all be extremely grateful.