Week 4 NFL Picks (Schwartz)

Last Week- Outright: 10-5-1, Against the Spread: 7-8-1,

Bets of the Week: 3-1

Season Record- Outright: 24-7-1, Against the Spread: 15-16-1

Bets of the Week: 4-1

Broncos (0-3) @ Jets (0-3): Jets -1, -115 (Broncos -105)

Picks: Broncos to win and cover

Vegas sees this game as more or less a toss-up, and it’s hard to disagree. With the amount of injuries the Broncos have sustained, and just the general state of the 2020 Jets, it feels like we’ll be in for a closely contested Thursday Night battle, but not really in a good way. The reason I’m giving the edge to Denver, the slight underdog, is very simple; they actually want to win this game, and the Jets probably do not. Week four is always a bit early to throw in the towel on a whole season, but if you’ve watched these Jets, it’s not hard to understand why the rest of this season’s best usage might be as a trek towards the first overall pick. Denver also might have too many injuries to contend, but they believe that they already have the core they need to be competitive, and want all of their talented youngsters to build confidence going forward. Their organization is simply not in a tanking mindset, and desperately need this win in order to feel somewhat positively about their prospects the rest of the way. I have them winning this game, and thus covering the modest spread; Denver takes the pillow fight of the year (so far). Congrats to Brett Rypien for making your debut against literally the worst team imaginable.

Colts (2-1) @ Bears (3-0): Colts -3, -135 (Bears +115)

Picks: Bears to win and cover

It’s simple; keep betting on Chicago until they lose. Once again, the Bears were able to pry victory out from the jaws of defeat, as the most inconsistent pro of all time, Nick Foles, came to the rescue in relief of Mitch Trubisky, exploding for three fourth-quarter touchdowns to take down the Falcons. Meanwhile, the Colts looked great in dominating a very, very bad Jets squad in quite the predictable win. I think the Bears just might have to put together four consecutive competitive quarters if they want to move to 4-0, but I also believe that they’re up to the task. They’ve shown the ability to close in tight games, they are much more battle-tested than the Colts, who have played one of the weakest schedules thus far. Both teams are among the healthiest groups in this young season, one that is increasingly filled with unfortunate injuries, so this will be a great contest to watch. I’m taking the Bears to pull off the small upset, and continue an impressive, undefeated start to the season.

Jaguars (1-2) @ Bengals (0-2-1): Bengals -3, -160 (Jags +140)

Picks: Jaguars to win and cover

After their first poor showing of the season, the Jacksonville players who are fighting for their jobs in years to come- namely QB Gardner Minshew- need a big bounce-back performance. Luckily, there’s nearly no better team to face when you need a win than these Bengals; an inexperienced bunch that struggles to close games, and is led by a rookie quarterback. It’s also worth noting that DJ Chark, who was missing last week, one of the biggest reasons for the Jags’ anemic performance, has been medically cleared, and begun practicing again. His presence does wonders for Minshew and Jacksonville’s offense, and will help them to take advantage of a questionable Cincy defense. Joe Burrow will be pressing hard, as this might be his best opportunity yet to pick up that first NFL win, and his offense has begun to look more and more in sync. This game is going to be pretty competitive, and there’s a lot of exciting things to watch on both sides. However, I have the Jags getting back to their winning ways and completing what Vegas sees as a minor upset. 

Browns (2-1) @ Cowboys (1-2): Cowboys -5, -225

Picks: Cowboys to win, Browns to cover

After a shocking loss to the Rams on opening weekend, and then a tough loss to the Seahawks, the Cowboys find themselves in a 1-2 hole. It’s quite a disappointing start for a team that many saw as an offseason favorite, and especially for a team that entered this season with so much continuity. They still have all the talent in the world, but haven’t quite found their identity. Luckily, they still sit atop the pitiful NFC East, but they need to get back to consistent winning if they want to be serious contenders. The Browns, on the other hand, are above .500 for the first time in over half a decade, as their up-and-down start to the season has been somewhat cushioned by a couple of subpar opponents. Still, the offense finally looked solid against what has been regarded as a strong Washington defense, and there is plenty of reason to believe that this will continue to be the case. I’m picking the simply better, more talented team here, but I think that Cleveland can keep this one competitive and cover the spread

Saints (1-2) @ Lions (1-2): Saints -4.5, -210

Picks: Saints to win and cover

The Lions have been very, very up and down this season, building big leads on the Bears and Packers before blowing both of them, and then beating a very hot Cardinals team. The Saints have been puzzling; they looked strong when they played Tampa on opening day, but are coming off of consecutive ugly losses. It’s tempting to stick with the hot hand, and pick the Lions to send the Saints to a puzzling 1-3 start, but I think the Saints are simply too experienced, level-headed, and well-coached to continue to spiral, and will win this game, one they desperately need. There’s not much to say other than the fact that the Saints are a better team than they’ve shown thus far, and they will seize this opportunity to get back on track. I’m not too confident in the cover- this Lions team will not be put away easily at all. Still, I think they can secure a one-touchdown lead and close the game out. 

Seahawks (3-0) @ Dolphins (1-2): Seahawks -7 (Bets of the Week Selection), -310 

Picks: Seahawks to win and cover

I’ll level with you guys- I have literally no idea how the spread for this game is only 7. When we saw this line, Wayne and I sold all of our worldly possessions, and invested all of the earnings in Seahawks -7. If we lose, I might not have a computer to write these picks next week. Basically what I’m saying is that this bet is not only one of my bets of the week, it is the absolute lock of the season. There’s absolutely no way the Dolphins come close to knocking off the NFC’s best team thus far, they will not be the team to slow down Russell Wilson’s torrid start. I have very little to say on this matchup other than not to overthink this one; Vegas messed up, and this is one of the ultimate open-and-shut decisions you’ll ever see.

Chargers (1-2) @ Buccaneers (2-1): Bucs -7, -330

Picks: Bucs to win and cover

This is another one that’s a relative no-brainer, at least in terms of who wins. The Chargers are coming off of a puzzling defeat at the hands of a really rough Panthers team (one that the Bucs effortlessly dispatched) while Tampa’s offense finally seems to be clicking, as they throttled the Broncos. It’s definitely unfortunate that Chris Godwin will be out again, a development that stopped me from making Tampa Bay -7 one of my bets of the week. Nevertheless, the defense looks fantastic, and Tom Brady is beginning to settle in and develop a rapport with guys like Mike Evans and Scotty Miller. The Chargers might be able to make this one look somewhat competitive, but it should be comfortable for Tampa from beginning to end.

Ravens (2-1) @ Washington Football Team (1-2): Ravens -14, -900

Picks: Ravens to win and cover

This is just not a competitive matchup. Despite what just happened on Monday Night Football, the Ravens are near the very top of the NFL when playing any team other than the Chiefs (in the regular season). The Football Team have shown flashes of strong play, but they are just not going to keep up with the Ravens’ offensive attack or make any progress against their stifling defense. I’m not too confident about this-  how can you be with a two-touchdown line?- but I think the Ravens, who will be highly motivated to come out and blow the roof off the place, will even be able to maintain a blowout and cover this extremely wide spread. 

Cardinals (2-1) @ Panthers (1-2): Cardinals -3.5 (Bets of the Week Selection), -180

Picks: Cardinals to win and cover

I can understand why the line on this one is a bit tighter than one might have originally imagined it might be- the Panthers are coming off of their first win, and the Cardinals will be a week removed from a shocking loss. But make no mistake, Arizona is still an extremely lethal team, and Carolina is a very flawed one. Kyler Murray played about as poorly as he ever has as a pro, and the team was still very much in the game until the very end- unless he somehow repeats his performance, the Cards should feel very confident about facing a mediocre Panthers squad. Justin Herbert was effective in his first non-surprise start against this team last week, and a highly-motivated Murray should seriously tear their inexperienced defense up. The Cardinals need a win to get back on track and continue their early playoff push, and they’ll get it. I have them winning as well as covering, one of my picks for bet of the week. I’m very confident in this team to get it done, and do so emphatically.

Vikings (0-3) @ Texans (0-3): Texans -4 (Bets of the Week Selection), -190

Picks: Texans to win and cover

Well here’s a winless matchup that not many people thought we’d see. For Houston, they’ve fallen victim to a ridiculous stretch of schedule, opening the season by playing the Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers. For the Vikings, it’s been due to...terrible, terrible football in all phases of the game. In particular, Kirk Cousins has really struggled without Kevin Stefanski, producing some of the most dreadful passing performances I’ve ever seen. Their new-look defense has also continued to be brutal, which also does the team no favors. Both teams need a win, but only one is capable of actually turning their season around. The Texans, for all of their flaws, have proven leaders on both sides of the ball, in Deshaun Watson and JJ Watt, and as much as we all love to laugh at his decisions as a GM, head coach Bill O’Brien has been nothing but a winner in Houston. They can still claw back in a mediocre AFC South, and they’ll need this win to do so- a fact of which they are well aware. Houston will come out on fire and keep the gas on all game, winning in emphatic fashion- their spread-cover is one of my bets of the week. 

Giants (0-3) @ Rams (2-1): Rams -13, -800

Picks: Rams to win and cover

I’ve tried to make a habit of keeping these segments short for both New Jersey teams, out of respect for the fans. The Giants are awful. I hesitate to pick a 13-point cover, especially for a team that is going to come back to Earth any day now, but Nick Mullens just annihilated this team, without the services of Raheem Mostert, George Kittle, or Deebo Samuel. This team is terrible, the Rams are at least as good as this hyper-injured version of the Niners, and the Giants having to travel across the entire country doesn’t help. Rams will win, and it should be a serious blowout- they will have to answer some real questions if it isn’t

Patriots (2-1) @ Chiefs (3-0): Chiefs -7, -310

Picks: Chiefs to win, Patriots to cover

EDIT (Newton out, game postponed): Chiefs -11, -650

Picks: Chiefs to win and cover

One of the most exciting rivalries in recent NFL years is back with a new look- there’s no more Tom Brady to do battle against KC’s high-powered attack. But the Patriots are still a serious threat, behind the revitalized Cam Newton, a solid offensive line and rushing attack, and an always-stout Belichick-led defense. Don’t get me wrong, they’re not going to win. The Ravens are essentially a better version of this Pats team, with a very similar “run first, pass if necessary” approach and a strong defense. But to that same end, Belichick and McDaniels have a week to see how the Chiefs attacked that sort of attack, and see how they can do better. I think the Chiefs own brain trust of Reid and Bienemy will be able to find a way and snuff out the Pats, but this game should be more competitive than either team’s last. Chiefs win, but the Patriots make it a contest down to the last minute and cover the touchdown spread. 

Bills (3-0) @ Raiders (2-1): Bills -3 (Bet of the Week Selection), -175

Picks: Bills to win and cover

The Raiders came back to Earth after a hot start, getting embarrassed by the Patriots in a week three rout. The Bills built a giant lead, blew it, and ultimately ended up on top in a thriller against the Rams. Essentially, both of these teams hit the first real bump in the road after a very comfortable start to the season. The Raiders might be showing their true colors, and the Bills seem poised to help them continue their fall. The Patriots are better than many expected, putting pressure on Buffalo to continue to lead the division, and these are the games they will need to win to do just that. The Raiders are solid but unspectacular, very beatable, and it’s easy to suspect that their defense is worse than it has appeared thus far- the Rams began to expose it in the second half on Sunday. Josh Allen and co. will stay hot, and the Bills will win by about a touchdown, securing the cover. I’m confident enough in Buffalo to make this one of my bets of the week, as they should have no problem playing from ahead all game long

Eagles (0-2-1) @ Niners (2-1): Niners -7, -320

Picks: Niners to win and cover

The Niners are one of the most injured teams in football, but don’t tell them that- they were back to business this Sunday despite all of the missing starters, dispatching the Giants in an absolutely disgusting rout. The Eagles played a game where it genuinely looked like neither team wanted to win, and both got their wish, as they tied the Bengals. This team, thought by many to be a playoff contender, can be described as nothing other than garbage. The defense has been porous, the once-elite offensive line has been nonexistent, and Carson Wentz looks absolutely lost. It’s a sad statement about the state of the Eagles franchise, but I’m very confident in a devastatingly-injured Niners team to win convincingly. 

Steelers (3-0) @ Titans (3-0):

Never mind

Falcons (0-3) @ Packers (3-0): Packers -7.5, -360

Picks: Packers to win and cover

Who let this be a primetime matchup? The Packers have mostly looked great as they’ve raced out to a somewhat surprising 3-0 record. Meanwhile, the Falcons have blown every lead humanly possible, in every way humanly possible, while playing defense worse than what I previously thought was humanly possible. I know this Falcons team is not quite as bad as its record, but the timing is simply not ideal for them to be facing a very hot Packers team. They will not be able to slow a dangerous Packers air attack, although they might be able to put up some points of their own. Still, I’ve picked against the Packers’ cover one too many times, and I can see them running away with this one. Not my most confident pick, but I’m taking Green Bay to win and cover the spread in the last game of week 4