Week 3 NFL Picks (Schwartz)
Last Week- Outright: 14-2 against the Spread: 8-8
Dolphins (0-2) @ Jaguars (1-1): Jaguars -3, -160
Picks: Jags to win and cover
A very, very intriguing week of football kicks off with the Battle of Florida, the Beard vs the Stache, and a potential key battle in the race for the first overall pick. The Jags have already largely exceeded expectations, as many saw them as a legitimate 0-16 candidate, winning one game against a potential playoff team and nearly stealing another in week 2. The ‘Phins have been less impressive, although they did compete with the Patriots and Bills in their first couple of games, pushing Buffalo late into the fourth quarter. Neither roster is fantastic, but the Jags have something the Dolphins have not; outstanding quarterback play. Gardner Minshew has gone from a surprise, to a meme, to a trend, to a legitimately solid NFL passer, and he’s shown over the first two weeks that he has no intention of losing games and then as a result, the starting QB spot in Jacksonville. Ryan Fitzpatrick, on the other hand, was solid against the Bills, but absolutely brutal on opening day. We will see if youth or experience wins out on Thursday night between the two signal callers. Both teams struggle defensively, but actually have some solid playmakers on offense. For Miami, the group is headlined by star Wideout DeVante Parker and young Tight End Mike Gesicki, but for the Jags it goes a bit deeper. DJ Chark had a breakout 2019 season, Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook have been very productive receivers, and rookie Laviska Shenault has been highly impressive in his first two games. Tyler Eifert is a strong veteran presence, and the Running Back room is surprisingly talented, featuring James Robinson and Chris Thompson. Overall, the Jags have more going for them here, and have shown more ability to close out wins between this year and last, when they were a relatively-impressive 6-6 under Minshew. The King of Florida will defend his crown, and bring his career record back over .500 as the Jags take what should be a surprisingly entertaining Thursday Night clash.
Bears (2-0) @ Falcons (0-2): Falcons -3.5, -175 Bears +155: Will’s Bets of the Week selection
Picks: Bears to win and cover
The Bears are a relatively unsurprising 2-0, while the 0-2 Falcons desperately need to get into the win column for the first time this season. The Bears are coming off an extremely ugly win against Danny Dimes and the Giants, while the Falcons became the first-ever team to score 39 points, not turn the ball over, and lose the football game- teams were previously 440-0 in such games. So both of these teams are going to be highly motivated- Atlanta to rescue their season, which is already in relative shambles, and Chicago to find some consistent form and really assert themselves as a real player in the NFC North race. Both of these coaches are on the hot seat- Dan Quinn has been a pretty consistent letdown since about the mid-third quarter of Super Bowl 51, and although Matt Nagy’s Bears have shown flashes of being a serious contender at times, he still has yet to win a postseason game in Chicago. This is going to be a very interesting game, but I believe that Chicago’s defense can at least slow Atlanta’s attack, and they are my underdog pick this week; I love their odds to move up to 3-0, as they are one of my Bets of the Week as one of the surest picks of week three.
Bengals (0-2) @ Eagles (0-2): -4.5, -220
Picks: Eagles to win, Bengals to cover
Speaking of hot seats, there’s a couple of previously-icy seats that have begun to warm up in Philly amid a really ugly 0-2 start. Ever since winning Super Bowl 52, and the departure of Frank Reich, the birds have been an average-at-best NFL team, and the Wentz-Pederson duo have some questions to answer on the field. Wentz in particular has been dreadful thus far, getting outplayed by Dwayne Haskins and Jared Goff- two of 2019’s worst quarterbacks- in the Eagles’ first two losses of the season. The former MVP candidate is not inspiring any sort of confidence, and it’s worth noting that unlike Pederson, he was not a part of the Eagles’ magical Super Bowl run, and thus does not have the benefit of that to pad his resume and keep his position secure. The Bengals, on the other hand, have been competitive through the early season, hanging with Chargers and Browns squads that are similarly mediocre to Philly, if not better. I think the Eagles need this more, and will come away with the victory, but Burrow and co. will make a serious run at their first win and lose by just a field goal, perhaps via another backdoor cover.
Texans (0-2) @ Steelers (2-0): Steelers -4: Will’s Bets of the Week selection, -200
Picks: Steelers to win and cover
You could say that it’s unfair that the Texans have had to start the season with a stretch of @ Chiefs, vs. Ravens, @ Steelers. And you’d actually be right- I genuinely cannot remember a tougher three game stretch to open the season for any team. They are in free fall right now, through almost no fault of their own, as they have been matched up with arguably the two toughest teams in the sport (we’ll get to them later) and now have to square up with arguably the toughest defense in the sport. T.J. Watt and friends have been absolutely stifling through the first couple weeks of the season, victimizing overmatched Giants and Broncos squads. They’ve let the final scores be deceptively close, as the offense hasn’t really been able to be effective at grinding out points, but this team should have very little problem limiting the very limited Texans. My Bet of the Week selection could get harmed by another late flurry by the opposing offense, but I think that a playoff-hopeful Pittsburgh team is comfortably a touchdown better than Houston at this point, and will be more prepared to seal the deal down the stretch.
Raiders (2-0) @ Patriots (1-1): Patriots -6.5, -275
Picks: Patriots to win, Raiders to cover
No team altered my opinion on their 2020 prospects with their week two performance than these two did, after their Sunday- and Monday Night primetime showdowns. The Patriots stood toe to toe with a Seahawks team that is fairly likely to win the Super Bowl, making a furious late comeback that came up just a yard short as time expired. The Raiders, on the other hand, actually sealed the deal, and rebounded from an early 10-0 deficit to win by 10 against a very highly-regarded Saints squad, and christen their new stadium in style. Both teams are also staring down a very challenging stretch of schedule after this matchup. The Pats next four games include visits to the Chiefs and Bills, and a Foxboro clash with a Niners team that might be healthy enough to be a serious threat. The Raiders will go through one of the craziest runs any team will have to face this year, they’ll leave Massachusetts and slide right into matchups with the Bills, Chiefs, and Buccaneers. So, suffice it to say that both teams would really like to come away with a win and get their playoff push off to a good start. Still, I think the Patriots just might need it more, and will be better-prepared. The Saints were realistically a more flawed team than people realized, and the Raiders capitalized, whereas the Pats are just the opposite- they have strengths that were extremely hard to predict before the year started, and their new-look offensive attack led by Cam Newton, both on the ground and through the air, is going to be a serious issue for a Vegas defense that certainly has some questions of their own. I think the Raiders will be able to keep this one within a touchdown and cover, but the Patriots will close the game this week, and come away with a 2-1 record.
Rams (2-0) @ Bills (2-0): Bills -2, -130: Will’s Bets of the Week selection
Picks: Bills to win and cover
These two teams have been some of the biggest overachievers to start this season. The Rams opened things up by knocking off a Cowboys team that many analysts (including myself) saw as a Super Bowl favorite, and then absolutely dismantling the talented but disoriented Eagles. Buffalo were expected to be 2-0 at this point, but nobody expected Josh Allen to shatter his career high for passing yards in each of his first two games, en route to leading the league in that category. Allen’s “star leap” is likely a mirage, as he has played two of the very worst defenses the NFL has to offer, and will almost certainly regress to some degree. Nevertheless, the Bills as a whole look to be as good as advertised, and newcomer Stefon Diggs has had an immediate positive impact. The Rams defense appears to be back, led by the always-dominant Aaron Donald, and will give Buffalo easily their toughest test yet. Jared Goff has also been impressive in what needs to be a rebound season, doing everything that has been asked of him over the first couple of games. Still, I’m confident enough in the Bills to continue their hot start and move to 3-0, that I’ve made them one of my Bets of the Week, although this should be one of the closest and most exciting games of week three.
Niners (1-1) @ Giants (0-2): Niners -4, -200
Picks: Niners to win and cover
This one has the potential to be UGLY! The Giants are a supremely unsurprising 0-2, while the Niners have had the least-encouraging opening two weeks they could have possibly imagined. Week one was a surprise loss to Arizona, and week two featured a dominant win against the Jets, during which pretty much everybody relevant got hurt. Here’s a sampling of the injured list going into week three- Dee Ford, Richard Sherman, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Jimmy Garoppolo, Solomon Thomas and Raheem Mostert. Things have the potential to seriously get out of hands and cost San Fran their shot to get back to the Super Bowl. Luckily, they’re about to enter a stretch of relative pillow fights, squaring off against the Eagles and Dolphins after this clash with the Giants, before they face a crazy run of Rams, Patriots, Seahawks, Packers, Saints, Rams Bills- that’s two extremely daunting months of football, whether or not they’re healthy. What I’m getting at is that, as injured as they are, Kyle Shanahan’s team needs to be absolutely sure to come out of this game with a win, and they surely will. Nick Mullens has proven to be a serviceable backup, and against a completely putrid team like the Giants, the duo of Shanahan and Defensive Coordinator Robert Saleh should be able to scheme the Niners through this game even with limited personnel. It won’t be pretty, this is a serious example of “survive and advance,” but the 49ers will get by the Giants, and I don’t expect them to have to sweat it out that much, as their backups seemed more than capable of dominating the Jets a week ago after all of the injuries.
Titans (2-0) @ Vikings (0-2): Titans -2.5: Will’s Bets of the Week selection, -140
Picks: Titans to win and cover
Both of these teams came into the season with serious playoff aspirations, after making improbable runs a year ago, and both experienced equally-serious letdowns during week one, as the Titans lost to the Jaguars and the Vikes got slammed by the rival Packers. Last week, Tennessee got back on track with a narrow win against the Jaguars, but the Vikings continued their plummet with a disgusting loss to the Colts. Minnesota have lost three starting defensive backs from a year ago, stud D-lineman Everson Griffen, and Pro Bowl Receiver Stefon Diggs. However, arguably a bigger problem than any of those losses has been the continued presence of Kirk Cousins under center. Cousins is a guy who has built his entire Minnesota legacy off of one throw, and has realistically been depressing in almost any other high-leverage situation. On Sunday, he actually had a passer rating below 1- out of 158.3- midway through the fourth quarter, en route to one of the worst final stat lines I’ve ever seen. This is a team without answers, and without Offensive Coordinator Kevin Stefanski, the mind that was responsible for much of Cousins’s success a year ago. The Titans have had an ugly first couple of weeks, but the defense is due to improve, and Ryan Tannehill has continued the good form with which he finished 2019. This is actually one of my Bets of the Week, I’m just not sure why the Titans are only favored by basically a field goal against a team that has shown absolutely no positive flashes through two weeks- I think they’ll win comfortably
Washington Football Team (1-1) @ Browns (1-1): Browns -7, -330
Picks: Browns to win, WFT to cover
The Browns got their first win of the season last Thursday night, but allowed far too much production out of rookie Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense. Yes, much of it was in garbage time, but they let Cincy hang around far too long. I am concerned that they might do the same against a Washington Football Team that has looked far more competent than many expected them to. It was somewhat predictable that the defense would be solid. It was a serious bright spot for the team a year ago, are now led by defensive whiz Ron Rivera, and added mega-prospect Chase Young, who has been as dominant as advertised through two games. I certainly expect the Browns to win this game, as Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham, new coach Kevin Stefanski and many other have plenty to prove, and a loss to a top-pick-contender would not help their cases. Besides, Dwayne Haskins has to get back to being awful at some point, and there’s no time like the present. The Football Team has plenty to be excited about going forward- far more than anyone expected- but the Browns simply have a more talented and experienced squad, and will come out with the win. However, they have been far from dominant, they’ve seriously struggled against strong defenses over the past two years, and I think this will be enough to allow Washington to hang around and cover the spread.
Panthers (0-2) @ Chargers (1-1): Chargers -6.5, -290
Picks: Chargers to win, Panthers to cover
Who had the under on 1.5 weeks before Justin Herbert makes his first start? A huge congratulations to anyone who did, but if there is any such person, I have yet to hear about them. The Oregon product was very impressive in his surprise debut, leading the Chargers to overtime against the “defending champs” and becoming the first rookie to both run and throw for a touchdown in his first half-game of NFL action. Head Coach Anthony Lynn insists that Tyrod Taylor is still the starter when he’s healthy, but that time does not appear to be now, as team doctors seem to have punctured Taylor’s lung. We all wish him a speedy recovery, and for now, the Chargers will have to turn to their rookie passer. This time, he won’t be taking his opponent by surprise, and they’ll have a whole week to gameplan for his unique physical abilities. Luckily, this time, his opponent is terrible, which should more than offset that loss of the element of surprise. The Panthers will likely keep it close, but without superweapon Christian McCaffrey, it’s hard to imagine them beating a team that has actually played solid football over the first two weeks, and Herbie will remain Fully Loaded and pick up the first win of his pro career.
Jets (0-2) @ Colts (1-1): Colts -11.5, -600
Picks: Colts to win, Jets to cover
Out of respect to the Jets, I’ll keep this one quick. After an offseason of trades, key injuries, and disappointing opt-outs, the Jets have asserted (or whatever’s the opposite of asserted) themselves as easily the worst team in the NFL. Indy responded from a shocking week one loss to the Jaguars, which we’ll attribute to simply shaking off the rust after a bizarre offseason, and the Colts debut of Philip Rivers. They looked much better in week two, utterly dismantling a Vikings squad that is not too much better than the Jets, so we can expect a somewhat similar result. Gang Green have been garbage-time monsters, so I’ll project the backdoor cover, but this game is not likely to be competitive any later than the end of the first quarter. The nails begin to be driven into the coffin for Adam Gase, as his time in New Jersey is coming to a close.
Cowboys (1-1) @ Seahawks (2-0): Hawks -5, -225
Picks: Hawks to win and cover
Although they had a miraculous, historic comeback last week, the Cowboys have yet to really find themselves after an offseason full of somewhat-typical hype. The Seahawks, on the other hand, have looked fantastic. They lit up a brutal Falcons defense in week one, but then in week two, won an early candidate for game of the season, as Russell Wilson threw just two off-target passes (as per PFF) as compared to five touchdowns, three of which were absolute dimes. One of these teams is a hot 2-0, and the other is a shaky 1-1. Each has some of the most talent in the entire league, and if this matchup was happening in November, it’s very possible that we’d be having a very different conversation by then. But it’s not, it’s happening in week three, and as of now, it doesn’t look like the Hawks, behind their “let Russ cook” approach, are going to have much trouble winning this game, and doing so relatively comfortably; I think they’re a solid pick to both win and cover, and send Dallas to a very frustrating 1-2 start.
Lions (0-2) @ Cardinals (2-0): Cardinals -6, -260
Picks: Cardinals to win and cover
This should be another quick preview. The Cardinals are on absolute fire, as Kyler Murray has absolutely lived up to the hype in making that all-important year-two jump, and emerged as a serious MVP candidate. Their week one upset of the then-healthy Niners was huge, on the shoulders of newcomer DeAndre Hopkins, and then they picked apart a very strong Washington defense. The Lions had a nice first three quarters of the season, jumping out to a solid lead against the Bears, but fell apart in that game and got smoked by the Packers in week two. Kliff Kingsbury’s Arizona team is rolling, while the Lions are reeling, and this should be a fairly uncompetitive afternoon matchup. The Cardinals will win, and they’ll do it in style.
Buccaneers (1-1) @ Broncos (0-2): Bucs -6.5, -275
Picks: Bucs to win and cover
Over the offseason, and after a promising week one, I thought the Broncos had a really solid chance of snagging the brand-new 7-seed in the AFC. Instead, they’ve been decimated by injuries, starting with Von Miller, and now including Drew Lock, Courtland Sutton, Phillip Lindsay, AJ Bouye, and more. Young wideouts Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler have also been slowed down by nagging ailments. On the other hand, the Bucs should be getting Chris Godwin back, and of course, 43-year-old-but-also-possibly-immortal Tom Brady avoided joining the swatch of week two injuries (knocking on wood). They comfortably dispatched the Panthers last week by a couple of touchdowns, and it could have been more- Brady was cost at least two touchdowns and 60 yards (a per PFF) by a series of drops ranging from somewhat understandable to openly egregious. He also established a strong connection with Mike Evans for the first time. The point is, this team is trending in the right direction, as the defense also turned in another solid performance, even while dealing with Christian McCaffrey before he exited with an injury. They will sprint by the Broncos without breaking a sweat, they’re a pretty safe bet to both win and cover the spread.
Packers (2-0) @ Saints (1-1): Saints -3, -160
Picks: Saints to win and cover
This is one of my least confident picks of week three. The Saints had high hopes coming into the season, after yet another improbable postseason defeat. The Packers, on the other hand, had been thoroughly exposed by the 49ers, and endured an offseason of being labeled as enormous regression candidates. Since then, each team’s start to the season has been the exact opposite of what was expected of them, as the Packers have raced out to a dominant 2-0 and the Saints have sputtered to a sloppy 1-1. The Bears are also putting some pressure on the Packers in the North, as they are fairly likely to move to 3-0 this week and remain at least in a tie atop the division. Nevertheless, the Saints are a well-prepared, well-coached veteran team and will be looking to rebound. They were without Michael Thomas against the Raiders, and are likely to be again this week, but with an extra week to get ready, Sean Payton is likely to cook up some new approaches for his offense without its star wideout. I think the Saints will win, but not run away with it at all, making the -3 line a very tough one. I wouldn’t be shocked by a push, but if I have to choose one team or the other to cover, I’d have to pick the Saints, if only because a win by one or two is such a niche outcome.
Chiefs (2-0) @ Ravens (2-0: Ravens -3.5, -190
Picks: Ravens to win and cover
It’s the rare occurrence of a clear game of the year candidate in week three, as the AFC’s top seed from last year hosts the “defending champion” Chiefs. It’s anyone’s game, as we’ve got a matchup of mastermind coaches, the legendary Andy Reid, and reigning Coach of the Year John Harbaugh, superstar QBs, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, owners of the past two MVP awards, and talented defenses. Home field advantage would normally be a deciding factor in such a tight matchup, but it’s really less impactful this year. I’m still going to go with the home team, however, for the simple reason that I believe that the Chiefs are taking what can be regarded as a Warriors/Cavaliers approach- having enough faith in the team’s ability to advance in the postseason that they are not placing an emphasis, nor burning health or energy, on regular season success, while the Ravens are taking what I’ll call a Bucks approach- winning as many games as humanly possible in the regular season (and then presumably flaming out prematurely in the playoffs. But we’ll see later). The Ravens also have more of a defensive answer for the Chiefs than vice versa; KC really doesn’t have a quick linebacker who can help to contain Jackson, and Tyrann Mathieu is too essential in other roles in their defensive scheme. So I’m sticking with Baltimore here, and I think they should win by more than a field goal- a classic near-cover could be in line, something along the lines of 34-38. It should be a classic Monday Night Matchup, and I’m thrilled to see how it turns out.
Week 3 NFL action kicks off tonight at 8:20 with Dolphins-Jaguars and continues all weekend long, capped off by Chiefs-Ravens on Monday night.