Super Bowl Rankings (Week 16 Ed.)

By: Wayne

Week 15 has come and gone, and there are just two weeks remaining until we get to see some playoff football. I'm going to publish rankings every week from now on with where I see the field of teams in terms of their level of Super Bowl contention.

Teams eliminated from the playoffs:

AFC  - Colts, Jaguars, Broncos, Chargers, Jets, Dolphins, Bengals

NFC - Bears, Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers, Cardinals, Lions, Giants, Redskins

*Note: team stats are from Football Outsiders and player stats are from Pro Football Focus, unless otherwise noted

17. Cleveland Browns: 6-8 record, currently 3rd place in AFC North and 8th seed, 2 games out of playoffs; 21.2 points scored per game (21st), 23.5 points against per game (17th)

Biggest strengths - rushing offense: 6th in efficiency and 7th in run-blocking

Biggest weaknesses - Freddie "Soup" Kitchens, the worst coach in the NFL besides Jason Garrett

Last game: 38-24 road loss to the Cardinals

The Browns are probably the most disappointing team in football this year in regards to their overall talent on paper and preseason hype. But Freddie Kitchens has put an absolute shit product on the field week after week, and this team just never seems prepared. Their 8-point win over the Bengals in Week 14 is a great example. Despite rushing at a 7.1 yards per carry clip and the Browns holding the lead for much of the game, Nick Chubb only received 15 carries. This past week, they outdid themselves with a loss to the 3-win Cardinals. The talent discrepancy between these two teams is pretty staggering when you look at their depth charts, and yet the Cardinals found offense pretty easily against the Browns. The Cards rank 21st in run blocking efficiency, and yet Kenyan Drake ran all over the Browns - 22 carries for 137 yards and 4 touchdowns. This team lacks the offensive innovation to compete with even bottom-half teams at times, and their defense funnels the offense to the short middle and the Cards took advantage of it. The Browns are one of the least prepared teams in the NFL week after week, and they lack the basic discipline to not get flagged out of games. They are the 4th-most penalized team in the NFL, and they have lost over 1,000 yards this year on penalties. Freddie Kitchens looks overmatched and clueless in these games, and some of the plays they run are absolutely mind-numbing. The Browns are a tough watch thanks to the work of Soup Kitchens and don't deserve to make the playoffs after being the divisional favorite heading into the year. Hopefully, for Browns fans, the Soup Kitchen will only stay open for a year and Ron Rivera will be coaching this team next fall.

Up next: home to Ravens, at Bengals. Watch out for the Ravens to potentially be sitting players with strong playoff positioning, but they still haven't clinched the 1-seed and in a divisional game against a team they lost to earlier this year they should be motivated to win. The Bengals should be an easy win, although they did just play them way too close at home, and Soup Kitchens is capable of magical things in getting a team to play below its talent level.

My predictions: loss to Ravens, win over Bengals - final record = 7-9, miss playoffs

16. Oakland Raiders - 6-8 record, currently 2nd place in AFC West and 9th seed, 2 games out of

playoffs; 19.6 points scored per game (24th), 27.6 points against per game (28th)

Biggest strengths - passing offense: 10th in efficiency and 6th in pass-blocking

Biggest weaknesses - passing defense: 31st efficiency

Last game: 20-16 home loss to the Jaguars

The Raiders probably don't even deserve to be in this article, but they're still alive in the playoff hunt somehow so I have to write about them this week. You'll learn very quickly now that the Raiders are my least favorite team in the NFL and I am thrilled they're leaving the Bay Area. Sorry, native Raiders fans. But you guys fucking suck. I thought the Raiders were on track to make the playoffs, but they have lost their last 4 games to the Jaguars, Titans, Chiefs, and Jets by a combined 87-point margin. I thought the Raiders had won the game against the Jaguars on Sunday, and I was only half paying attention when I realized Gardner Minshew had the ball in the red zone and was about to take the lead. Gardner has balls of steel and he has 3 game-winning drives in just 10 starts this year. But in what will now be the last game ever played in Oakland, the Raiders should have sent their fans home with a win. They had the lead for basically the whole game after a first-drive touchdown and a few field goals gave them a 13-point margin. The Raiders came out for the second half and looked more asleep than my dad watching this dreary offense (my dad frequently falls asleep during boring football games and it's fucking hilarious waking him back up for nothing plays, sorry dad). While the Raiders offense was busy researching casinos in Vegas instead of scoring any points in the second half, Gardner Minshew led the Jags down the field for two touchdowns in the 4th quarter. Again, Gardner, balls of steel. But the Raiders were booed off the field by their fans in their last game in Oakland in one of the funniest shitstorms I've ever seen. Jon Gruden was not a happy camper. after Derek Carr was ruled out of bounds on a late play that gave the Jags more time on the clock on their last drive. But scoring more than 0 points in the second half might not be a bad idea, Jon. One of the bright spots for what is turning into a disappointing season for the Raiders is the play of rookie running back Josh Jacobs. The Alabama product is PFF's second-best running back, and he is the odds on favorite to win offensive rookie of the year.

Up next: at Chargers, at Broncos

My predictions: win at Chargers, loss to Broncos - final record = 7-9, miss playoffs

15. LA Rams - 8-6 record, currently 3rd place in NFC West and 7 seed, 2 games out of playoffs; 23.7 points scored per game (13th), 21.9 points against per game (15th)

Biggest strengths - 2nd in pass-blocking, 6th in run defense, 11th in pass defense

Biggest weaknesses - 21st in rushing offense, 17th in pass offense

Last game: 44-21 loss to the Cowboys in Dallas

The Rams are coming off a Super Bowl loss to the Patriots, and have been one of the toughest teams to analyze this season. Coming off an impressively dominant home win over the division-rival Seahawks, the Rams went into JerryWorld and absolutely crapped the bed. The Rams run defense was porous, giving up a combined 248 yards on 36 carries (6.8 YPA) to the combination of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott. The Rams were down by 24 points early in the third quarter after the Cowboys' coin-flip mixup gave them the ball to start the second half. Sean McVay left the halftime tunnel with the expectation of giving his offense a chance to get within two scores, but the Cowboys put up another field goal on their first drive and the Rams never looked like competing after that. This was the Cowboys' first win over an above-500 team, so congrats to Jason Garret truthers everywhere. If there's still any of you left. The Rams losing and Vikings winning puts the Rams 2 games out of the playoffs, and it doesn't seem likely they will get in with a road matchup against the 49ers looming. The Rams' rushing offense has been pretty inconsistent this season, whether due to game script or inefficient play from Todd Gurley, and it has hampered their offensive ability. The defense has looked great at times, especially adding Jalen Ramsey to a defensive core that already showcased Aaron Donald, Clay Matthews, Eric Weddle, and Michael Brockers. This team has the talent to hang with many of the teams in this list, but their inconsistent season will leave them on the outside looking in of the playoffs. The Super Bowl hangover is real, and I expect this team to return with a vengeance next year.

Up next: at 49ers, home to Cardinals. The 49ers' injuries in their secondary, including Richard Sherman's ongoing hamstring strain, should make this an interesting matchup for Jared Goff and the Rams' passing offense. The 49ers did just lose at home to the Falcons, but they will be motivated to prove that was just a fluke. The Cardinals are bad, don't let their performance against Soup Kitchens and the Browns tell you otherwise.

My predictions: loss to 49ers, win over Cardinals - final record = 9-7, miss playoffs

14. Philadelphia Eagles - 7-7 record, 2nd place in NFC East and 9 seed, tied with Cowboys for division lead; 23.9 points scored per game (12th), 23.4 points against per game (16th)

Biggest strengths - rush defense: 3rd best defensive line, 11th in rush defense overall

Biggest weaknesses - 20th in pass defense

Last game: 37-27 road win over the Redskins

The Eagles have not looked particularly impressive at any point this season, and yet in this garbage division they still somehow have the lead. Recent results include skin-of-their-teeth wins over the Redskins, Giants, and Bears and a loss to the Dolphins. To be fair, Brian Flores deserves the tank-destroyer award of the year. He has looked determined every week to take this shitty roster clearly designed to #TankforTua to just enough wins to put them out of the first overall pick. Good shit, Brian. Anyways, this Eagles team doesn't have a single cornerback inside the top-80 in the league. Malcolm Jenkins, a 3-time Pro Bowler, has had a down season, and this defense has given up some of the best quarterbacking and receiving lines all year. This run defense is elite, but it hasn't mattered as this secondary makes them prone to allowing big plays and getting the team into shootouts. Carson Wentz, going into the season with what looked like one of the best-receiving groups in the league, has seen his play suffer as the receiving group has been decimated by injuries. Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, and Nelson Agholor have all missed significant time this year. Wentz still ranks 14th among quarterbacks, which is a testament to his play in what has been a revolving door of receiving options. But he has attempted the second-most passes in the NFL behind only Jameis Winston That doesn't bode well for a team who's best path to wins is taking advantage of its offensive and defensive line and slowing the game down. The Eagles hung tough with the Patriots and Seahawks, but they have looked poor in recent weeks and I don't expect them to be making a big playoff run.

Up next: home to Cowboys, at Giants. Dak Prescott may sit this week, which would make the Eagles the favorites at home. The Philly run defense matches up well with the Cowboys' recent run-heavy approach with Zeke and Tony Pollard, but if Dak plays I expect the Dallas passing game to be able to pick apart the Eagles' secondary. The last time the Eagles played the Cowboys they really struggled to move the ball and Alshon Jeffery, who is now out for the year, was active. The Eagles get a slight bump playing at home this time, but I expect the Cowboys to pull this out if Dak plays. Then again, they are coached by Jason Garret so who the hell knows. The Eagles should be able to beat the Giants, even though it was ugly last time.

My predictions: loss to Cowboys, win over Giants - final record = 8-8, miss playoffs

13. Pittsburgh Steelers - 8-6 record, 2nd place in AFC North and 6 seed, tiebreaker over Titans for 

playoffs; 19.2 points scored per game (25th), 18.5 points against per game (6th)

Biggest strengths - defense: 3rd in rush defense, 5th in pass defense, 4th in special teams

Biggest weaknesses - offense: 25th pass offense, 31st rush defense

Last game: 17-10 home loss to the Bills

The Steelers have turned back the clock this season, and it's been really cool to see. Tough, physical defensive units that can dominate on all three levels like Pittsburgh has this year is not as common as they used to be, and Mike Tomlin and defensive coordinator Keith Butler deserve a ton of credit for molding this roster into the defensive juggernaut it has become. The Steelers have 4 top-40 cornerbacks per PFF - Steven Nelson (11), Cameron Sutton (16), Joe Haden (35), and Mike Hilton (37). Rookie linebacker Devin Bush ranks second on the team with 92 tackles and was announced as a Pro Bowl alternate. Not the least bit surprising after seeing him dominate teams for a few years at Michigan, always knew he was going to be a stud. Minkah Fitzpatrick has transformed this defense, especially in run defense where he ranks 3rd among all safeties. T.J. Watt ranks 1st among all edge defenders this year, and his 13.5 sacks pace the league-leading team in sacks. Bud Dupree has 9.5 sacks on the year, and Cameron Heyward has 8 as well. Pittsburgh is the only team that has 3 players with 8 or more sacks. Unfortunately for the Steelers, Devlin Hodges ranks 33rd out of qualified quarterbacks this season, ahead of just Kyle Allen, Case Keenum, and teammate he replaced Mason Rudolph. The offense has slogged through the season, and they have scored just over 17 points per game since Devlin Hodges took over. Hodges has shown great chemistry with James Washington, but their offense is too one-dimensional to put up enough points against top-end opponents. The Steelers would currently face the Chiefs in the first round in the playoffs, and with the way the Chiefs' defense is playing recently, I would not expect the Steelers to score many points. This team is more reliant on one side of the ball than any other on this list, and it will likely be exposed in the playoffs. Mike Tomlin deserves a ton of credit for keeping this team in the playoff hunt with all the injuries they have suffered, and he should be a top coach of the year candidate. This team is ready-made for Super Bowl contention with the right QB, but Devlin Hodges isn't that guy.

Up next: at Jets, at Ravens. The Steelers should have no problem locking down the Jets horrible offense this week - they rank 28th in scoring in the NFL. On the road against a full-strength Ravens squad would be a difficult matchup for this team, but if the Ravens beat the Browns this week they clinch the #1 seed and will likely be benching a ton of players Week 17. I'm predicting a Ravens win this week and a motivated Steelers team beating an undermanned Baltimore squad.

My predictions: win at Jets, win at Ravens - final record = 10-6, finish with 6th seed in AFC

12. Dallas Cowboys - 7-7 record, 1st place in NFC East and 4th seed, head-to-head tiebreaker over Eagles; 27 points scored per game (5th), 20.6 points against per game (12th)

Biggest strengths - 2nd in overall offense, 3rd in rushing, 4th in passing, 1st in yards per game

Biggest weaknesses - 32nd in special teams efficiency, Jason Garrett

Last game: 44-21 home win over the Rams

The Cowboys might be the most difficult team in football to figure out right now. After getting embarrassed at home on Thanksgiving by the Bills they sloshed through another Thursday night game against the Bears which was not as close as the 7-point difference indicated. But this past week they came out with a dominant statement victory over a surging Rams team. The Cowboys were up 21 points at the half and never looked like losing their lead as they rode a dominant rushing attack - the team totaled 45 carries for 263 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground. Dallas won't be able to use the same offensive strategy, and assuming Jason Garrett can make good adjustments (which is never a safe assumption), the 5th-graded wideout Amari Cooper should be in for a big day against an overmatched Philly secondary. The Cowboys' loss to the Jets is still the biggest blemish on their season's resume, but their results don't look nearly as embarrassing as those of their division foe Eagles. Their defense is pretty mediocre in terms of efficiency, despite allowing the 12th fewest points in the NFL this season. They rank 18th in run-defense efficiency and 23rd in pass defense, and they don't really have a signature defensive performance this year. Their special teams unit is the worst in the NFL, as they have consistently operated from a poor field position and suffered from 10 missed field goals by kicker Brett Maher. Many of the issues with this seemingly super-talented team stem back to a lack of preparedness and the ability to take advantage of mismatches. Kellen Moore has been criticized this season for his lack of offensive execution, but this offense has flashed the elite ability at times that their core of Prescott, Cooper, Elliott and the best offensive line in football suggests they have. Jason Garrett has been holding this team back for years now, and the talent they have assembled should have them at way better than 7-7. This Cowboys team has the talent to surprise whoever they end up playing in the first round of the playoffs, but there might not be a coach I trust less than Garrett to get it done. Just kidding. It's Freddie Kitchens.

Up next: at Eagles, home to Redskins. Dak Prescott not playing this week would change things, but he said today in an interview that he should be good to go on Sunday. I think the Cowboys have the passing offense to take advantage of the Eagles' biggest weakness, and the Eagles' offense should be relatively one-dimensional. I'm giving a slight edge to the Cowboys here. The Redskins shouldn't give the Cowboys any problems in Week 17. but if the Cowboys beat the Eagles they will have already clinched the division.

My predictions: win at Eagles, win over Redskins - final record = 9-7, finish first in NFC East, 4 seed

11. Buffalo Bills - 10-4 record, 2nd place in AFC East and 5th seed; 20.8 points scored per game

(22nd), 15.9 points against per game (2nd)

Biggest strengths - 3rd in pass defense, 4th in defense overall, 12th in run-blocking

Biggest weaknesses - 20th in passing offense, 19th in rush defense, 24th in pass-blocking

Last win: 17-10 road win over the Steelers

The Bills have benefitted from playing what Power Rankings Guru rates as the easiest schedule in the NFL. Playing the Jets and Dolphins twice as well as every team in the pitiful NFC East has given them plenty of opportunities for wins. The Bills have looked good in their games against more difficult opponents as well, beating the Steelers and Cowboys, as well as keeping within one score of the Ravens and Patriots. Josh Allen has been good enough to help this team win games - 18 touchdowns and 9 interceptions in 14 starts. Limiting his turnovers has been especially important for a team looking to slow down the pace of the game and rely on its defense to win. Tre'Davious White is arguably the best shadow corner in the NFL - he ranks 8th among corners. Micah Hyde is graded as the 8th best safety in the NFL this season. The Bills' defense has been great all year, especially against the pass, and they looked particularly impressive in holding Lamar Jackson's Ravens to just 24 points. The Bills do have NFL iron-man, the eldest statesman, 1,000-yards-in-my-sleep and "hard as fuck" man of the decade Frank Gore. Gore's 9 1,000-yard seasons in his career will be a fascinating case for the Hall of Fame voters to diagnose as they always seem to be mired in the debate between longevity and peak. This defense gives the Bills a chance to win just about any game, but it's questionable whether or not Josh Allen has what it takes to deliver in the playoffs. To his credit, he is tied with Russell Wilson for the most game-winning drives this season (5). Their current first-round playoff matchup would be against the Texans, and I like their chances to take advantage of the Texans' poor offensive line. Sean McDermott has quietly done an excellent job with this team, and the arrow is definitely pointing up in Buffalo. The Bills are just a game back in the AFC East and it's the first time in years the Patriots have not clinched the division by Week 16. Buffalo would need to beat the Pats at Foxborough and have the Pats lose to the Dolphins for them to win their division. But they have locked in a spot in the playoffs, which is a win for them this season.

Up next: at Patriots, home to Jets. The Patriots are hungry for a statement win after losing to the Chiefs, Texans, and Ravens, and it's hard to imagine them losing to the Bills at home. The Bills can rest easy knowing they are pretty much locked into the 5th seed, and they will have a shot against whoever ends up winning the AFC South.

My predictions: loss at Patriots, win over Jets - final record = 11-5, finish 2nd in AFC East, 5th seed

10. Tennessee Titans - 8-6 record, 2nd place in AFC South and 7th seed; 24.2 points scored per game (11th), 19.9 points against per game (8th)

Biggest strengths - 5th in run defense, top ten in rushing and passing offensive efficiency

Biggest weaknesses - 32nd in pass-blocking, 22nd in pass defense

Last game: 24-21 home loss to the Texans

The Titans had an opportunity in a divisional matchup at home against the Texans to grab the division lead by the balls. It was a cleanly played game with only 3 total penalties, and both teams played really well. But in looking at the stats, you would have expected the Titans to have won the game with their 58-yard advantage and one fewer turnover than the Texans. It was anyone's game for much of the contest, but the Titans' offense failed to capitalize on too many opportunities to score on this weak Texans secondary. I really wanted to rank the Titans higher than 11th. This is a team that knows its identity, riding Derrick Henry to the second-most rushing yards in the NFL. In previous years, Henry had flashed top-end talent but he was surrounded by poor talent. Marcus Mariota was never a winning QB, and the front office struggled to put adequate receivers in the offense with him. Now, Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown have revolutionized this offense into the deep play-action pass set up by the 6th-best run-blocking line in the league opening holes for Derrick Henry. Unfortunately for the Titans, they now need some help to make the playoffs. If the Texans win against the Buccaneers, they will clinch the AFC South title. A parlay between the Titans and Bucs winning this week produces about +473 odds on Bovada, so it's not looking great for this Titans team. The organization will give Ryan Tannehill the bag this offseason, and rightfully so - he's the 3rd-best QB in the league. Mike Vrabel has this team playing great football - they were 6-1 in their last 7 heading into the Texans game. This team will be one to watch for next season, but they appear to be on the outside looking in of this year's playoff hunt.

Up next: home to Saints, at Texans. The Saints still have plenty to play for, as they are tied record-wise with the Seahawks and Packers for the 1st seed in the NFC. Home-court will be pretty important this offseason, with the NFC showcasing some real elite teams. Still, the Saints are really banged up and coming off a short week, and the Titans will be incredibly motivated to win this game. I really think the Titans can pull out a big upset here. That would set up Week 17 against the Texans as a loser-goes-home match for the playoffs. I liked the Titans better in the first matchup, and goddamn it I just can't quit you Ryan Tannehill. I really want to see this Titans team in the playoffs.

My predictions: win over Saints, win over Texans - final record = 10-6, finish 1st in AFC South, 4 seed

9. Houston Texans - 9-5 record, 1st place in AFC South and 4th seed; 24.4 points scored per game

(10th), 23.6 points against per game (19th)

Biggest strengths - Deshaun Watson, 6th best quarterback

Biggest weaknesses - 26th in pass defense, 23rd in pass blocking, 19th in run blocking

Last game: 24-21 road win over the Titans

This Texans team seems like a retread of last year's highly flawed squad that we saw lose to the Colts by 14 points in the first round, except that team ended the season with the number 1 overall run defense. This 2019 squad is middle-of-the-pack in that category, ranking 15th. Deshaun Watson has played better than anyone at quarterback at various points this season, but this team is far too reliant on their franchise quarterback. DeAndre Hopkins could be the best receiver in football. Kenny Stills and Will Fuller have been in and out of the lineup but productive when healthy. This offense needs them in the lineup to be at their best. The Texans have coaxed a surprising 1,000-yard season out of a 29-year-old Carlos Hyde, the first of his career. But this offensive line has looked flat overmatched in many games, and the Texans allow Deshaun Watson to be sacked the 5th most in the NFL. I had the Titans rated as the better team heading into their matchup with Houston, but Deshaun Watson did enough to get them the win. Hopkins went for 119 yards, and Hyde's 104 yards helped as well. The Texans are another incredibly confusing team, as their season has been about as hot-and-cold as it gets. In between winning an important divisional game over the Titans and beating the Patriots, the Texans were ripped apart by Drew Lock and the Broncos offense in Houston to the tune of 38 points. A Week 4 loss to the Panthers shows the downside of this team, as they allowed 6 sacks to the Carolina defense and only managed 10 points at home. The Ravens defense racked up 7 sacks against the Texans and only gave up 7 points. Deshaun Watson was an MVP candidate early in the season, but this deeply flawed roster has kept him from consistently putting up excellent numbers. The Texans have a lot of work to do this offseason, starting with finding a new general manager and finding a way to keep Deshaun Watson upright. I like the Titans roster and stats much better than the Texans', but it would be crazy to switch them in the rankings after the Texans beat the Titans in Tennessee. That game really could have gone either way though.

Up next: at Buccaneers, home to Titans. The Texans have played themselves into a win-and-in scenario this week against a banged-up Bucs offense, and they can clinch the AFC South with a win. But Tampa has one of the better defensive lines in football, and it presents a huge matchup problem for the Texans. Jameis Winston should be able to pick apart their secondary, even without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The early weather forecast for this game showed heavy rain, but the weather looks clear as of now which should promote a high-scoring contest. I like the Bucs to pull out the win at home, even with a decimated receiving corps. It should be one of the most fun games of the week, regardless. With a Texans loss and a Titans win, the two teams would have the same record and would play in Week 17 for the division title. I'm giving a slight edge to the Titans as I still think they are the more talented team, but that will be anyone's game just like the first matchup.

My predictions - loss to Bucs, loss to Titans - final record = 9-7, 2nd in AFC South, miss playoffs

8. Green Bay Packers - 11-3 record, 1st place in NFC North and 2nd seed; 23.6 points scored per game (14th), 20.2 points against per game (9th)

Biggest strengths - offense (4th in running, 8th in passing), 2nd in turnover differential

Biggest weaknesses - 25th in run defense, 16th in pass defense, 23rd in yards allowed per drive

Last game: 21-13 home win over the Bear

The Packers' stats are contradictory at every turn. They are middle-of-the-pack in points scored per game, but they are a top 10 offense in efficiency for rushing and passing. The Packers have had very good individual defensive performances this season. Tramon Williams and Jaire Alexander are tied as the 24th best corner, Adrian Amos and Chandon Sullivan are top 16 safeties, Kenny Clark is the 17th best safety, and Za'Darius Smith is the 8th best edge defender. Blake Martinez leads the NFL in tackles with 140. These individual numbers suggest they would be at least a top 10 defense, as their 9th-place rank in points-per-game allowed shows. But they are in the bottom half of the league in both run and pass defense efficiency. Aaron Rodgers has had a subpar year. He has thrown just 2 picks all year, but his touchdowns and passer rating both put him at 9th in the NFL (per Pro Football Reference). His passer rating is lower now than it has been at any point in his career. Davante Adams is healthy now, and the Packers' offense badly needs him as they have one other receiver ranked in the top 40 (Allen Lazard). Adams ranks 10th among receivers. Aaron Jones has had an excellent season. He's scored 17 combined rushing and receiving touchdowns, and is on pace to finish with over 1,000 yards and 50 catches for the first time in his career. The Packers have only lost at Lambeau Field once all season, and if they can secure home-field in the playoffs they are going to be a tough out for anyone. Green Bay in the winter is one of the toughest places to play in the league. But the Packers have looked unconvincing on the road, particularly in losing by a combined 44 points to the Chargers and 49ers. I wouldn't trust this team to go on the road against the top competition, and that's exactly where we'll see them this week as they take on the Vikings. I may have the Packers ranked too low, but even their home-field advantage seems somewhat tentative this season as they have beat the Bears, Redskins, Panthers, and Lions at home by a combined 22 points, 5.5 per game, and lost to the Eagles at home.

Up next: at Vikings, at Lions. The Vikings are a more talented team than the Packers, and even though they seem likely to be without their top two running backs this week, the Minnesota front-seven can challenge the Packers offense and their offensive line is much better than the Packers' D-line. I like the Vikings as slight favorites at home, and this is the season of Kirk Cousins bucking his primetime failure narrative. Fortunately for the Packers, since they hold the divisional tiebreaker, they only need to beat the Lions in Week 17. The Lions are one of the 5 worst teams in the NFL, and should be an easy win for the Packers.

My predictions - loss at Vikings, win at Lions - final record = 12-4, 1st in NFC North, 3rd seed

7. Minnesota Vikings - 10-4 record, 2nd place in NFC North and 6th seed; 27 points scored per game (5th), 18.5 points against per game (6th)

Biggest strengths - offensive line: 5th in run blocking, 11th in pass blocking; 6th in passing offense, 4th in run defense, 8th in pass defense, 4th best turnover differential

Biggest weaknesses - secondary: no cornerback ranked in top 60

Last game: 39-10 road win over the Chargers

The Vikings have been the best example in the NFL this season of a lot of unrelated factors coming together at the right time to build a contender. Dalvin Cook, the 6th-best running back in the NFL, has started every game of the season for the first time in his career and it has paid off with a Pro Bowl berth. Cook has established himself with 250 carries for 1,135 yards (good for 4.5 YPA) and 13 touchdowns. He has contributed through the air nicely as well with 53 catches for 519 yards. The Vikings offensive line has been outstanding - all 5 starters are in the top 50 on PFF - and they have really benefitted from the offseason additions of Garrett Bradbury and Josh Kline. Kirk Cousins is having a banner year as the 5th most efficient quarterback and has put up close to 3,500 passing yards on a 70.5 completion percentage. He has scored 25 touchdowns to 5 picks and is having a career year in completion percentage, touchdown percentage, and interception percentage. This has all been despite Adam Thielen, PFF's 14th best receiver, having played his first game this week since Week 7. Defensively, the Vikings are built on a front seven full of talent - Eric Kendricks grades first among all linebackers and Danielle Hunter is 3rd among all edge players. Linval Joseph and Eric Wilson have had great seasons as well. This exceptional front-seven play has turned Minnesota into one of the toughest teams to run on in all of football. Anthony Harris and Harrison Smith grade out as top-5 safeties, and Anderson Sendejo isn't far behind at 14. The Vikings offense has the ability to score in a variety of ways, and their top-5 ranking in offensive scoring is a testament to Kevin Stefanski's ability in his first season as offensive coordinator. Mike Zimmer has both units of this team vibing. Minnesota is coming off a statement 39-point win over a Chargers team that turned the ball over 7 (7!!!!) times. Betting on the Chargers and then watching them lose the turnover battle by 6 took years off my life. But it only affirmed what I was already starting to suspect - this Vikings team is one of the most complete in football, and one of my favorite dark horse Super Bowl teams, especially now that Adam Thielen is healthy.

Up next: home to Packers, home to Bears. The Vikings are healthier than the Packers and are riding the momentum of 5 wins in 6 games capped off by that 29-point road win. I like the Vikings to win at home. The Bears are eliminated from playoff contention, but it's still a divisional game and Chicago will want to play spoiler to this team. The Packers have the tiebreaker over the Vikings, so Minnesota will need Green Bay to lose twice if it wants to win the division. I'm picking the Vikings this week, but no way to Packers lose on the road to the Lions. Right?

My predictions - win over Packers, win over Bears - final record = 12-4, 2nd in NFC North, 6th seed

6. Seattle Seahawks - 11-3 record, 1st place in NFC North and 6th seed; 26.5 points scored per game (9th), 24.6 points against per game (21st)

Biggest strengths - offense: 4th overall, 2nd in passing, 7th in rushing, 3rd in turnover +/-

Biggest weaknesses - 22nd in rush defense, 25th in pass protection, 29th in sacks

Last game: 30-24 road win over the Panthers

Russell Wilson is having an MVP-caliber campaign. He has thrown for 3,708 yards on the 7th-best completion percentage with 28 touchdowns (3rd in NFL) and 5 interceptions (only one player has fewer in as many games). Wilson is tied for the NFL lead with 5 game-winning drives, and there isn't a QB I would rather have if my team has the ball late in the game down just a few points. The Seahawks pass-blocking has been brutal this year, allowing Russell Wilson to take 42 sacks, and the run-blocking has just been mediocre, although the offensive line has done a nice job of getting the Seattle running backs opportunities at the second level. Chris Carson is PFF's 10th best running back. He has put in another strong season of sturdy play in the backfield, with 270 carries for 1,190 yards (4.4 YPA) and 7 touchdowns on the ground, as well as 36 catches for 246 yards (6.8 YPC) and another two touchdowns through the air. Carson hauls in 78.3% of his targets, which is better than sure hand tight ends Darren Waller and Austin Hooper, as well as backfield receiving specialists James White and Tarik Cohen. Rashad Penny's injury is a blow for this team, but Carson is more than capable of handling the bulk of the work, and the team trusts him despite his 7 fumbles this year. Please don't fumble anymore Chris. I really need a fat fucking game from you this week to win my fantasy championship. Defensively, the Seahawks have some great individual talent. Bobby Wagner is second in the NFL in tackles. Convince me he isn't the best linebacker in football. Shaquil Griffin grades out as PFF's #6 corner. Jadeveon Clowney has had a very good season, and his 13 quarterback hits to just 3 sacks are unlucky if nothing else. Second-year defensive linemen Poona Ford and Rasheem Green have been taking major steps forward in recent weeks. Mychal Kendricks, K.J. Wright, and Ezekiel Ansah all give this team plenty of front-seven depth. The Seahawks have the 12th-best pass defense per Football Outsiders, despite generating very few sacks this year. The Seahawks' strong offensive attack is able to keep opponents in poor field position, and the team consistently wins the turnover battle. There is talent on this defense, and it wouldn't be shocking to see them turn it on late in the year. I had some doubts about the Seahawks early on in the season, with how many points their defense was giving up and how reliant the team is on a quarterback they can't protect. But wins over the 49ers and Vikings showed this team is capable of beating the best.

Up next: home to Cardinals, home to 49ers. The Cardinals at home shouldn't present the Seahawks with too many problems, and Arizona's 28th-ranked pass defense should be picked apart by Russ. Seahawks 49ers Week 17 is shaping up to be one of the games of the season. The 49ers were without several defensive players this week due to injury, including 4 of their top defensive backs, and the Falcons were able to throw on them fairly easily. Richard Sherman and K'Waun Williams are expected to return this week, although Dee Ford is expected to miss the rest of the regular season. Still, the 49ers are a deeper team than the Seahawks, and I would give the edge to San Fran to get some revenge over their division rivals in the final week of the season.

My predictions - win over Cardinals, loss to 49ers - final record = 12-4, 2nd in NFC East, 5th seed

5. Kansas City Chiefs - 10-4 record, 1st place in AFC West and 3rd seed; 28.1 points scored per game (4th), 20.3 points against per game (10th)

Biggest strengths - 6th in pass defense, 3rd in pass offense, 6th in special teams, 4th in pass blocking

Biggest weakness - 20th best rush offense, 30th best run defense, 30th in run blocking

Last game: 23-3 home win over the Broncos

This is the first team on this list other than the Vikings to be ranked top 10 in both points for and points against. This is a solid benchmark to see where a team's Super Bowl contention level lies, as the best teams usually have a top ten unit on either side. The safety combination of rookie Juan Thornhill and offseason signing Tyrann Mathieu has fared pretty well this year. Each player ranks in the top 36 at safety, and the Honey Badger ranks 19th. Chris Jones ranks 9th among defensive tackles, and he was badly missed earlier in the year when he missed games with a groin injury. Despite only starting 10 games, Jones leads the team in sacks with 7. Frank Clark is close behind with 6 in 12 games. Clark and Jones were named to the Pro Bowl. In two of the three games Jones missed, the Chiefs gave up 31 points to each of the Packers and Texans. Now fully healthy, the Chiefs defense has given up 11.25 points per game in its last 4, including holding the Patriots to 16 points in Foxborough (although it really should have been more). It's hard to separate these recent defensive performances from early-year shitshows (see: Derrick Henry trucking his way to 188 yards and 2 touchdowns at an 8.2 YPC rate). That is by far their worst performance of the year, to be fair, giving up 35 points to the Titans and its good to see this defense making progress to help out a phenomenal offense. Pat Mahomes hasn't quite lived up to the elite play he showcased last season through no fault of his own - he just set the bar so damn high. He's still PFF's 10th-best quarterback, and his passing efficiency stats suggest he's still near the top of the league. Injuries to himself, Tyreek Hill, and the entire running back corps have not helped matters. When healthy, Hill has played like the 6th best receiver in the league per PFF. His stats would have him at around 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns had he played every game this year. Travis Kelce is turning in another elite season with 86 receptions on 122 targets for 1,131 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Chiefs have allowed the 5th-fewest sacks all season, and their offensive line has done quite well in pass blocking. Some credit has to go to Mahomes' ridiculous improvisational skills though, of course. The Chiefs' complete lack of a run game this year has really hurt them - LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams have combined for just under 800 rush yards. There doesn't appear to be a good enough running back on the roster, and I expect the team to address the hole this offseason. The Chiefs' run defense has been better in recent weeks, but I still see it as their biggest weakness, and it will be interesting to see how they match up against a strong rush offense in the playoffs. Luckily for them, the Titans and Derrick Henry may be on the outside looking in, but the Ravens' elite rushing attack will give them some serious problems.

Up next: at Bears, home to Chargers. The Bears and Chargers have been two of the most maddening teams to bet on all season long, and I'm heavily backing Kansas City in both of these games. They should continue their recent elite defensive run against Trubisky and Rivers (yuck).

My predictions - win over Bears, win over Chargers - final record = 12-4

4. New England Patriots - 11-3 record, 1st place in AFC East and 2nd seed; 26.6 points scored per 

game (8th), 12.9 points against per game (1st)

Biggest strengths - 1st in pass defense, 7th in run defense, 5th in pass blocking, 2nd in passes defended, 1st in turnover differential

Biggest weaknesses - 15th in passing offense, 16th in run offense, 17th in run blocking

Last game: 34-13 road win over the Bengals

The alarmist Patriots bells are ringing now, as they always seem to do around this time of year. People are writing the Pats off after their 3 losses to the other likely division winners in the AFC. There are legitimate reasons to be concerned. The rushing offense, which is typically a strength of a Tom Brady team, has been stagnant. The entire corps of running backs on the roster have combined for just 1,425 yards on 385 carries (3.7 YPC). The team ranks 19th in rush yards per game after finishing 5th last season. Tom Brady has struggled as well. His 3.8 touchdown percentage ranks 23rd in the NFL. His completion percentage of 60.1% puts him behind esteemed names like Kyle Allen, Daniel Jones, and Mason Rudolph. Oof. The Pats' sneaking in the top 10 in scoring is surprising to me, as this offense has shown some serious issues. Much of Brady's struggles can be attributed to the shocking lack of talent in this receiving group - outside of Julian Edelman's 92 catches and James White's 65, nobody on the roster has more than 28 catches. Philip Dorsett, Jakobi Meyers, N'Keal Harry, and Mohamed Sanu have taken turns rotating in the lineup and none has found very much success. Don't even bring up tight ends - the Patriots' entire tight end group has caught just 32 passes. On the bright side, this team is really good at not turning the ball over - their turnover differential of +24 is 10 better than the next-best team. The Patriots have forced 15 fumbles and hauled in 25 interceptions this season. Stephon Gilmore is PFF's 5th-best cornerback, and his 6 interceptions give him the league-lead tie with TreDavious White. No doubt that will be a storyline when the Pats take on the Bills this week. This linebacker corps is fucking stellar - Jamie Collins has recorded 6 sacks, 71 tackles, and 3 interceptions; Kyle Van Noy has recorded 6.5 sacks and 47 tackles; Dont'a Hightower has 4 sacks and 60 tackles. Chase Winovich has had an excellent rookie season, providing an extra pass-rush presence with 5.5 sacks in limited snaps. Devin McCourty and J.C. Jackson each have 5 picks. Lawrence Guy and Danny Shelton have provided a reliable inside presence. The Patriots' 12.9 points allowed per game puts them on par with some elite all-time defenses. The 1985 Bears is considered one of the best defensive units of all time, and they finished the season allowing just 12.4 points per game. I know the offense has been pretty limited this season, but this is probably the best defense Bill Belichick has ever coached and Tom Brady does nothing except winning Super Bowls. It would be dumb to doubt their formula at this point - things have looked worse in the past in seasons they have won the Lombardi.

One quick note on the Patriots which is super interesting - they have the fastest pace in the NFL on plays in the first half but drop to the 25th fastest pace in the second half. I would have to assume that's intentional on the part of Belichick, but I'm not too sure why. Maybe their early blowout leads over time lead them to slow the pace down in the second half? Would love to hear if anyone has any input on this, but just something interesting to think about.

Up next: home to Bills, home to Dolphins. The Bills have a great record and a great defense, but Josh Allen doesn't have what it takes to win in Foxborough. Beating the Pats at their place requires an elite effort on both sides of the ball, and this defense should close out the year with two dominant home showings.

My predictions - win over Bills, win over Dolphins - final record = 13-3, 1st in AFC East, 2nd seed

3. San Francisco 49ers - 11-3 record, 2nd place in NFC West and 5th seed; 29.9 points scored per game (2nd), 18.4 points against per game (5th)

Biggest strengths - 2nd in pass defense, 7th in pass offense, 1st in forced fumbles, best defensive line per Football Outsiders

Biggest weaknesses - 19th in plays per drive

Last game: 29-22 home loss to the Falcons

Unlike the AFC, the NFC's 5-seed currently showcases one of the best teams in the league. I really struggled to find a weakness on this 49ers roster. Their defense has been one of the best in the NFL all season. Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Richard Sherman, and Jimmie Ward are all having All-Pro caliber seasons. 4 players on the defensive line have over 6 sacks - Arik Armstead (10), Nick Bosa (9), DeForest Buckner (6.5), Dee Ford (6.5). In addition to Nick Bosa's stellar rookie sack rate, he also has 41 tackles, 16 for a loss, and 20 quarterback hits. He has just been all over the field this year, and looks like he'll be one of the best defensive players in the league over the next decade. His Pro Bowl nod is well-deserved. Fred Warner, a former third-round pick out of BYU, is crushing this season with a team-leading 104 tackles. Richard Sherman has turned back the clock this year, and he's rated as the 2nd-best corner per PFF. The old cocky, shit-talking Richard Sherman has been replaced by Richard Sherman the intellectual and mentor. He has excelled as one of the defensive captains. The San Francisco offense has complemented its dominant defensive unit quite nicely. The 49ers are one of four teams with an offensive line top 10 in both pass blocking and run blocking efficiency. George Kittle, rated as PFF's top tight end, has put together another outstanding season with 73 catches for 888 yards and 4 touchdowns. He has been a much-needed outlet option for Jimmy Garoppolo. The handsome one has put together a solid season, throwing for just under 3,500 yards and 26 touchdowns on the league's 5th-best completion percentage. Jimmy G's interception percentage does put him just outside the top 20, but this team still has a +5 turnover margin, good for 11th best. The 49ers do have a somewhat limited group of receiving options, but nothing like the Pats are dealing with. Deebo Samuel has flashed at times and put together decent numbers of 48 catches for 669 yards and 3 touchdowns. Emmanuel Sanders was a much-needed acquisition for this team - the veteran has made a significant impact with 30 catches for 416 yards and 3 touchdowns in just 7 games started. Both of those players were ineffective this week, however, as the 49ers lost to the Falcons at home in what was the upset of the week. Raheem Mostert has emerged as the X-Factor for this team. PFF's 11th-rated running back has seen limited touches, but he has been ultra-efficient in rushing at a 5.7 YPA clip and receiving at 11.7 YPC. He has 662 yards rushing on just 116 carries and 164 yards on 13 catches. Mostert's usage has been on the rise in recent weeks and he now seems like the clear leading back on the roster. This team's only real weakness has been its inability to sustain drives this season - they rank 19th in plays per drive. This has contributed to a middle-of-the-pack rating in terms of opponents' average starting field position on drives. Short fields create easier scoring opportunities, and that would be the one thing to watch out for with this team. They are very much a machine with a lot of moving parts that impact each other - lots of punts and short field for the other team will hurt their defense's ability to assert itself. This shouldn't be a huge problem for the 49ers, as Kyle Shanahan is an offensive genius, but it is something to look out for with their relative lack of offensive depth.

Up next: home to Rams, at Seahawks. The Rams have struggled this season when they haven't established a run game, and they have really struggled to establish a run game. Don't expect that to change against the 12th best run-defense in the NFL, and arguably the best defensive line. You can read more about my breakdown of the 49ers Seahawks game, which is shaping up to be the best regular-season action remaining, under my Seahawks writeup. The short story - the 49ers are more talented and should be healthier for that matchup, will be motivated to not be swept by their division foes.

My predictions - win over Rams, win at Seahawks - final record = 13-3, 1st in NFC East, 1st seed

2. New Orleans Saints - 11-3 record, 1st place in NFC South and 3rd seed; 27 points scored per game (5th), 21.6 points against per game (14th)

Biggest strengths - 5th in pass offense, 9th in run defense, 10th in pass defense, 1st in run blocking, 3rd in pass blocking

Biggest weaknesses - 18th in points allowed per drive, injuries

Last game: 34-7 home win over the Colts

The Saints are another team that's difficult to find critiques for. Drew Brees is coming on late in the season, and he had a spotless performance against the Colts this week - he went 29/30 for 307 yards and 4 touchdowns. And no, before you check, that isn't a typo. He went 29/30. The Colts are pretty mediocre in pass defense, but 29/30 is fucking ridiculous. That's a 96.7% completion rate. It's never been done before. With those 4 touchdowns, Brees now has 541 for his career, passing Peyton Manning's 539 for the most all-time. Tom Brady is breathing down his neck with 538 touchdowns. Teddy Bridgewater was serviceable during Brees's absence, but it's clear the one-day first-ballot-hall-of-famer turns this team from great into unstoppable. Brees has the best completion percentage in the NFL, gets sacked less than any other quarterback, and is third in touchdown percentage. Brees is PFF's top-rated quarterback, and he is certainly well-complemented by PFF's third-best wideout Michael Thomas. Thomas has caught 133 of his 159 targets - good for an 83.6 catch percentage. That leads the NFL by a mile. The next best catch percentage is Adam Humphries at 78.7%. Thomas's 83.6 catch percentage is only bested all-time by the mind-boggling 85% he put up last year. Alvin Kamara has seen his usage reduced, but Latavius Murray has played quite well and the duo have combined for 1,935 rushing and receiving yards as well as 8 total touchdowns. Kamara's 73 catches have him inside the top 20 for any position in the league. The Saints have arguably the best offensive line in the league to complement their offensive stars. Ryan Ramczyk (2nd) and Terron Armstead (8) are PFF's top bookend tackle duo by far. Only one other team has 2 guys in the top 20 - the Packers' Brian Bulaga (9) and David Bakhtiari (15). Per PFF, the Saints start a top-ten player at his position at 4/5 spots on the offensive line. The Saints secondary has all kinds of talent in Marshon Lattimore, Eli Apple, and Marcus Williams (#2 safety), and Janoris Jenkins will provide some much-needed depth. He could start over Apple right away, who has the most penalties of any corner in the league. The Saints' linebacking corps is headlined by Demario Davis who is PFF's #3 linebacker and leads the team with 98 tackles. Cameron Jordan has had another outstanding season with 13.5 sacks, 48 tackles, and 23 quarterback hits. This Saints team has been hit with a wave of injuries. Two key defensive starters were lost - Marcus Davenport had season-ending foot surgery and Sheldon Rankins will likely miss the rest of the year with an ankle injury. Starting offensive linemen Larry Warford and Andrus Peat have ongoing injuries. Ryan Ramczyk and Terron Armstead popped up on the injury report this week. Starting safety Vonn Bell and his primary backup C.J. Gardner-Johnson have missed games recently. Patrick Robinson and Kiko Alonso were also limited at practice. Despite all their offensive line injuries, the Saints are still averaging just under 35 points per game in their last 5. Credit Brees for getting the ball out quickly and finding his offensive talent in Thomas and Kamara open in space. Defensively, the Saints have struggled of late. Giving up 48 points and 516 yards of offense to the 49ers at home stands out in particular. But the defense looked as good as its looked in weeks Monday night in holding the Colts to 7 points and just 205 yards of offense on 52 plays run. When healthy, this Saints team absolutely has what it takes to get to the Super Bowl. Drew Brees is a man on a mission, and his elite play combined with that of his stud receiver Thomas might be enough to get the Saints wins the next two weeks. That would put them in the driver's seat for a first-round bye in the NFC, which would allow their injured players more time to recover.

Up next: at Titans, at Panthers. This is pretty much a must-win game for the Titans, but after seeing the Saints just wipe the Colts on Monday night, I'm not loving their chances. The Saints understand what a first-round bye would mean and will be motivated to win the next two weeks against inferior opponents, albeit on the road. However, the Titans are a talented football game and are much healthier than the Saints. In a must-win game at home, I'm picking the Titans to pull out the victory.

My predictions - loss to Titans, win over Panthers - final record = 12-4, 1st in NFC South, 2nd seed

1. Baltimore Ravens - 12-2 record, 1st place in AFC North and 1 seed; 33.7 points scored per game (1st), 18.4 points against per game (4th)

Biggest strengths - 1st in rushing offense, 1st in passing offense, 4th in pass defense, 4th in run blocking, 1st in yards, points, plays, and time of possession per offensive drive

Biggest weaknesses - 21st in run defense, 18th in pass blocking

Last game: 42-21 home win over the Jets

Back when I wrote my "Ravens are legit" piece, the Ravens were coming off a blowout, statement win over the Bengals. They avoided a letdown after beating the Patriots against a division rival and were finally rounding into form defensively. Since that time, the Ravens have reeled off 4 straight wins against winning teams - Rams, Texans, 49ers, and Bills - by an average of 20.75 points. It cannot be overstated how incredible it is what Lamar Jackson is doing. Beyond breaking Michael Vick's rushing yards record, Jackson has been an incredibly effective passer. His 8.9% touchdown rate puts him first in the NFL by almost 2%. Jackson also ranks inside the top ten in completion percentage and interception percentage, a great sign for a player who's rookie season was full of questions about his accuracy and ball security. Only 4 quarterbacks have more passing yards than Jackson has combined passing and rushing yards. The Ravens are scoring more points per game than the "Greatest Show on Turf" Rams led by Kurt Warner managed in 1999. The Ravens are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL, which is a huge boon for them at this point in the season. Starting linebacker Chris Board and left tackle Ronnie Stanley returned to practice this week after missing last week's game with concussions. Stanley is PFF's 4th best tackle and was named to his first Pro Bowl. Mark Ingram, Jimmy Smith, Earl Thomas, and Marshal Yanda didn't practice, but it was for non-injury related reasons and they are all expected to play. Losing starting center Matt Skura was a blow for the Ravens, but Patrick Mekari has filled in admirably and is PFF's 12th best center. Stanley and Yanda (4th best guard) buoy this offensive line for Lamar Jackson. The Ravens defense started the year a bit shoddy, but it is impressive to see them rebound to the 4th best passing defense and 4th in points scored against. Adding Marcus Peters to a secondary that already featured top talent in Jimmy Smith, Earl Thomas, and Marlon Humphery has been huge. The Ravens' defensive line has been good, but it's not their biggest strength. The pass-rush has been inconsistent, generating just 34 sacks which are places them 18th in the NFL. Matt Judon's 8.5 sacks lead the team, followed by 5 by Tyus Bowser in a part-time, pass-rushing role. Pernell McPhee had 3 sacks in 7 games before being placed on injured reserve with a torn triceps. Brandon Williams, Michael Pierce, and Chris Wormley make up a solid if unspectacular front 3. The real strength of this Ravens team is their quarterback. The team has completely pivoted its identity from years past to fit the mold of their franchise player, and Lamar has responded with incredible numbers. Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards have combined for 1,478 rush yards and 12 rushing touchdowns, and it's clear the impact an ultra-mobile quarterback has on improving a team's run game. There is no clear top receiving threat on this team, but Mark Andrews has led the pack with 58 receptions for 759 yards and 8 touchdowns in a breakout sophomore season. Andrews is PFF's second-best tight end. Marquise Brown has flashed big-play ability in his rookie season, scoring 7 touchdowns on just 43 catches. Willie Snead, Hayden Hurst, Nick Boyle, Seth Roberts, and Myles Boykin have given Lamar a platoon of serviceable options, as well. Lamar Jackson is taking over the NFL, and I'm hyped to see if his incredible play can take this team to the Super Bowl.

Up next: at Browns, home to Steelers. This is a must-win game for the Browns - if they lose they will be officially eliminated from the playoffs. But asking Freddie Kitchens to beat John Harbaugh twice might be less likely than getting hit by lightning. The Ravens will lock up the top seed in the AFC with a win this week since they have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Patriots, so they will likely be benching several starters in Week 17, opening the door for the Steelers to have a playoff-clinching win.

My predictions - win over Browns, loss to Steelers - final record = 13-3, 1st in AFC North, 1 seed

My final playoff standings:

AFC:

1. Ravens - 13-3

2. Patriots - 13-3

3. Chiefs 12-4

4. Titans 10-6

5. Bills 10-6

6. Steelers 10-6

NFC:

1. 49ers - 13-3

2. Saints - 12-4

3. Packers - 12-4

4. Cowboys - 9-7

5. Seahawks 12-4

6. Vikings 12-4

My playoff predictions:

AFC:

Titans (4) beat Bills (5)

Chiefs (3) beat Steelers (6)

Ravens (1) beat Titans (4)

Patriots (2) beat Chiefs (3)

Ravens (1) beat Patriots (2)

NFC:

Seahawks (5) beat Cowboys (4)

Vikings (6) beat Packers (3)

49ers (1) beat Vikings (6)

Saints (2) beat Seahawks (5)

Saints (2) beat 49ers (1)

Super Bowl: Saints (2) beat Ravens (1)