Fantasy Football MVP Candidates
By: Wayne
With this being the fantasy football championship week for most, I thought it would be a good time to look into the top candidates for the fantasy football MVP. Without further ado, let’s meet the nominees:
*Note - fantasy points are in half PPR (0.5 points-per-reception) format)
**Another note - YPA = yards per rushing attempt and YPR = yards per reception
Christian McCaffrey - fantasy points = 369.1, 26.4 per game; 265 carries for 1307 yards (4.9 YPA) and 14 rushing touchdowns; 94 receptions for 814 yards (8.7 YPR) and 4 receiving touchdowns
McCaffrey is the best running back in football, and he has maintained goddamn elite consistency with his stats despite the Panthers struggling to perform all season. CMC has dipped below 17 fantasy points just once all season and has been over 30 points in 7 of his 14 games. Sure, the bellcow back was taken with the first or second pick in just about every fantasy league. I vouched for him all summer as the number one pick, but this type of season has outdone even my lofty expectations. McCaffrey has the third-most catches in the NFL this season, including wide receivers. He has more receptions than Julian Edelman, Keenan Allen, Julio Jones, OBJ, Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle. CMC has over 100 more points than the next leading skill-position player in Michael Thomas. He has finished outside the top ten running backs on the week just twice all year. He has 10 top-5 finishes. CMC was putting your fantasy team on his back most weeks, with his massive biceps and cute smile and... Sorry, just got lost in a picture of Christian there for a minute. Carry on. McCaffrey would have received votes for the MVP had the Panthers not been so shitty, but he is a top candidate for the more important fantasy MVP award as he has carried fantasy teams everywhere to the playoffs this season.
Lamar Jackson - fantasy points = 385.9, 27.6 per game; 245 completions on 370 attempts for 2889 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions; 159 rushes for 1103 yards (6.9 YPA) and 7 touchdowns
Lamar Jackson has taken a massive leap forward in his second season, and I can't remember a player having this level of improvement from year one to year two since I have been watching football. He's the Luka Doncic of the NBA. The Ravens have rebuilt their entire identity around who is now their franchise player, and Jackson has rewarded them for it with just unbelievable numbers this year. Jackson has evolved as a passer in a huge way - his completion percentage has improved 8% and his touchdown percentage has improved by 5.4% after throwing just 6 touchdowns in 7 starts last year. Jackson has gotten much smarter about using his elite rushing ability to make defenders make mistakes and open stuff up downfield for his receivers. It's the improvisational play that most quarterbacks attempt to incorporate which makes Jackson's upside fucking huge. Jackson's rushing stats this season would put him as a low-end first-round running back in fantasy, and with two games left to play he's already broken Mike Vick the dog-killing dick's 1039 rush yards from 2006. Lamar is the rightful MVP of the NFL this year, and he might just be the fantasy football MVP as well with the mind-boggling numbers he's putting up. He's only had 1 game outside of the top 11 QBs on the week, a road matchup against the Steelers, and his 9 finishes as a top-3 QB (4 as number 1) make him the best option at his position by far.
Michael Thomas - fantasy points = 268.8, 19.2 per game; 133 receptions on 159 targets (from two different QBs), 1552 yards (11.6 YPR) and 8 touchdowns
Michael Thomas's role in his offense is relatively one-dimensional as compared to CMC and Jackson, but don't tell him that. Thomas is the toughest cover in the NFL right now, as he routinely makes catches in double and triple coverage. The most impressive part of what Thomas has been able to do this year is the several games Drew Brees missed in the middle of the year. Going through a quarterback switch midway through the season can have a real negative effect on a player's consistency, but Thomas didn't skip a beat. Teddy Bridgewater performed admirably in Brees's place, but Thomas absolutely buoyed the offense during that stretch and it would be bullshit to think otherwise. Thomas has dipped below 18 fantasy points just once all season and has been above 20 points in 8 of his 14 games. He has finished as a top 7 receiver in fantasy in 8 games as well, with only one true bust game all season. Thomas probably has the highest floor of any player in all of fantasy football, and he has shown elite upside as well. Thomas crushed Austin Collie's record of an 81.7 catch percentage last season with his 85% and is on pace to put up the second-best number ever this year at 83.6%. Thomas will finish 3rd or 4th in MVP votes and should finish around the same for fantasy.
Dalvin Cook - fantasy points = 265.9, 19 per game; 250 carries for 1135 yards (4.5 YPA) and 13 touchdowns; 53 receptions for 519 yards (9.8 YPR)
Dalvin Cook, entering his 3rd NFL season at age 24, had only played 15 games in two years coming into this campaign. It was never a question whether he could get it done in the NFL - his 4.8 and 4.6 yards per carry were very good marks and his talent has flashed since his days at Florida State. But Cook dipped into the late second round or even early third round in some fantasy drafts this year due to his long-term health concerns, and I personally avoided him as I did not expect him to stay healthy this year. What a mistake that was. Cook is third among skill-position players in fantasy points and prior to this week's blowout win over the Chargers in which he only saw 9 carries, he hadn't finished worse than an RB2 all year. That includes 7 top-5 finishes. Cook is proven he can be a tough SOB, fighting through multiple minor injuries this year. He has been one of the most consistent players in fantasy this year after being drafted behind the likes of David Johnson, LeVeon Bell, and James Conner (and sometimes Joe Mixon) all of whom can be labeled busts this year for various reasons. Cook has proven himself to be one of the most talented workhorse running backs in football, and he will easily be a first-round pick next season.
Aaron Jones - fantasy points = 248, 17.7 per game; 188 carries for 830 yards (4.4 YPA) and 14 touchdowns, 45 receptions for 425 yards (9.4 YPR) and 3 touchdowns
I have been a #FreeAaronJones truther for a couple of seasons now, and I gotta say I'm pretty fucking hyped to see him finally put together an excellent season. His collective numbers are really impressive, but digging into his consistency is a little concerning. He has finished as a top-3 running back 6 times, but has also found himself outside of the top 36 running backs 5 times. Those weeks, you were lucky if his shitty 4 or 5 points didn't break your week. But Jones has had 5 top-3 performances, and he is tied with McCaffrey for the league lead in touchdowns. Matt LeFleur has found easy ways to get Jones the ball in the offense that Mike McCarthy just never could wrap his head around. Here's to hoping Jones finishes the fantasy season with a massive performance this week, as I have him on one of my two teams competing for a title.
Chris Godwin - fantasy points = 233.1, 16.7 per game; 86 receptions for 1333 yards (15.5 YPR), 9 touchdowns
And Mike Evans - fantasy points = 199.2, 15.3 per game; 67 receptions for 1157 yards (17.3 YPR) and 8 touchdowns
Chris Godwin was drafted in the 5th or 6th round of most fantasy leagues, and he is currently the second-highest scoring receiver in fantasy. Godwin has had a classic third-year breakout despite splitting targets with Mike Evans, and both have benefitted and been hindered by the Jameis Winston shitshow that's been going on. Such is life when your QB has 30 touchdowns and 24 interceptions. Bruce Arians' offense has been really fun to watch this year, and it has produced 5 top-6 performances for Godwin and 5 top-10 performances for Evans. Neither of these guys has been the model of consistency this year, but I was lucky enough to get both in my lineup in my high school league. There were only 2 weeks the duo failed to get to 20 combined points, and they went over 40 points combined 6 times. Winston is the best worst quarterback in the league, and Tampa is shadily the most fun team to watch in football right now. Anything can happen on any given play, and odds are if you had a piece of that passing offense you were delivered some wins singlehandedly by Godwin or Evans or both.
Patriots DST - fantasy points = 217, 15.5 per game; 12.9 points allowed per game; 20 touchdowns allowed all season; 25 interceptions, 15 forced fumbles, 50 tackles for loss, 87 quarterback hits; 5 defensive touchdowns
The Patriots offense has struggled at times this year, but this defense has been masterfully crafted by
Bill Belichick. Their 12.9 points allowed per game puts them among all-time great defenses - 1985 Bears (12.4) and 2000 Ravens (10.3). From Week 2-8 the Pats defense finished 1st in fantasy scoring 5 times, and they have finished as a top-12 defense in 11 of their 14 games. Those lead the field by far. The Pats defense hasn't really hurt you all year, and their three worst performances include 4 points at Baltimore, 2 points at Houston, and 7 points against the Chiefs. Those are three top-10 scoring offenses so coming away with 13 points in those three matchups still is not terrible. The Pats defense has finished with 20+ points 7 times in fantasy - no other defense has done that more than twice. DST is not a position where you invest high draft capital, and the Pats were the 8th defense off the board according to FantasyPros. But having an extra 15.5 points per game, and often much more than that, has led to the Pats delivering a lot of fantasy wins this season.
My rankings for fantasy MVP:
Christian McCaffrey (369.1 points)
Lamar Jackson (385.9 points)
Michael Thomas (268.8 points)
Dalvin Cook (265.9 points)
Aaron Jones (248 points)
Patriots DST (217 points)
Jameis Winston's carnival of offense
Chris Godwin (233.1 points)
Mike Evans (199.2 points)
