2020 Super Bowl Mega Preview
By: Wayne
What's up. As many of you know, I've been studying abroad in Barcelona for the past couple of weeks now, which besides being an absolutely amazing experience has made it incredibly difficult to follow American sports with the games happening in the middle of the night. With football in the thick of a compelling playoff race towards Super Bowl 54 (I refuse to look up the proper Roman numeral) in Miami, I have watched far less of the games than I would have liked. I originally planned to do playoff previews and picks every week, but that has not happened. I apologize to anyone who was looking forward to my weekly picks, but given my lack of success with gambling over the past few weeks you probably wouldn't have benefitted from it anyways.
On what is usually one of the best days of football of the entire year - Conference Championship Sunday - we saw the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers coast to relatively easy home victories. The Chiefs knocked off the Titans 35-24, and the 49ers flew to a 37-20 win that wasn't even as close as the final score indicates. I didn't really believe in the Packers at any point this season, and I strongly feel that if the game against the Seahawks was played in Seattle, Green Bay would not have won. I wasn't terribly surprised by either the Chiefs' or 49ers' wins, and with each listed as more than a touchdown favorite on most sportsbooks pregame, Vegas agreed.
Patrick Mahomes has been the best player of the playoffs, throwing for 615 yards in two games on 65.7% completion with 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He looked like the star of an epic sports movie a couple of weeks ago as the Chiefs came back from a 24-0 deficit against the Texans in less than a quarter to take a 28-24 halftime lead and proceed to a 20-point win on the back of a 51-7 scoring run. The Titans offered a stiffer test with a slightly better pass defense, but Mahomes still threw for just under 300 yards and was incredibly effective on the ground - 8 carries for 53 yards including a filthy spin move on a touchdown run late in the first half (link below).
https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1219009379162148864
Raheem Mostert, a formerly undrafted running back who has been cut by 6 NFL teams, was the star of the show for the 49ers, becoming the first player in NFL playoff history to have 200+ rushing yards and 4+ rushing touchdowns in a game. Mostert absolutely embarrassed the Packers' 23rd-ranked run defense (via Football Outsiders) as he was relatively untouched on each of his 4 touchdown runs. Kyle Shanahan's advanced zone run scheme has produced dominant results during this late-season stretch for San Francisco, and has allowed Jimmy Garoppolo to be limited to just 27 combined throws in the team's two playoff games - Mahomes has more in each of his two starts. It's not that Garoppolo has been bad - he ranks as PFF's 14th best quarterback and has the top tight end in football George Kittle to throw to, along with Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel. But this team is clearly at its best when it plays a grind-it-out, possession style game taking advantage of Raheem Mostert, PFF's second-ranked running back, and a dominant defense.
The 49ers rely on a ferociously fast front seven led by Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, and rookie Nick Bosa who all rank within the top 10 at their respective positions in the NFL per PFF. Dee Ford and Ronald Blair III have also been able to excel in part-time pass-rushing roles alongside these dominant linemen. Richard Sherman ranks as PFF's top corner, and K'Waun Williams has come into his own as the team's secondary and nickel corner. Williams had a dominant performance against the Packers with 7 tackles, including 2 for a loss, and a strip-sack forced fumble on Aaron Rodgers. Jimmie Ward has also had a phenomenal season, particularly as an in-the-box run defender, and ranks as PFF's 3rd overall safety. Per Football Outsiders, the 49ers finished the regular season with the second-best pass defense behind just the New England Patriots (with a much more difficult schedule, for what it's worth) which should make them the perfect foil for an on-fire Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs' offense.
Speaking of that electric Chiefs offense, they show incredibly well on PFF. Mahomes is the website's 3rd ranked quarterback, Tyreek Hill is the 12th-best wide receiver, and Travis Kelce is the 4th best tight end. Even Sammy Watkins, who had a hit-or-mostly-miss regular season, came up huge against the Titans with 7 catches for 114 yards and a touchdown, crushing my Tyreek Hill yardage prop bets (Hill still came up with 2 touchdowns). Football Outsiders credits the Chiefs with the second-most efficient passing offense in the NFL, behind just the Baltimore Ravens. Their running offense has been ineffective for much of this season, however, ranking middle-of-the-pack on Football Outsiders. LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams both rank outside the top 50 backs in the NFL on PFF. Every Chiefs starting offensive lineman shows far better in pass-protection than run-blocking, as evidenced by their 4th-ranked pass-blocking on Football Outsiders vs 28th-ranked run-blocking. If the Chiefs want to keep the 49ers' monstrous pass defense off-balance and honest, developing some kind of a run game in the Super Bowl - be it traditional runs, quarterback runs, or screen/short passes - is going to be crucial.
Injuries to Chris Jones and Juan Thornhill have limited the Chiefs' defensive upside some weeks this season, particularly against the run, but this unit is now fully healthy according to Andy Reid. They did hold Derrick Henry to just 69 yards rushing in the AFC Championship, but that can be credited to a poor game script for the Titans as much as a good defense by the Chiefs. It was certainly not Mike Vrabel's plan to have Ryan Tannehill throw the ball 31 times in this game. Chris Jones, who is PFF's 10th-ranked interior defender, played a limited number of snaps in the game but should be able to get ready for a full workload over the next two weeks. Tyrann Mathieu has been an excellent addition for this team, particularly in pass coverage as he has been given a ton of free reign by this defensive staff to identify plays and determine where he should be on the field. He will be tasked with guarding George Kittle for much of the Super Bowl, which is no easy task. None of the Chiefs' corners have been particularly impressive, but they have a ton of depth at safety to play around with - Juan Thornhill, Daniel Sorenson, Kendall Fuller, and Armani Watts all rank inside the top-80 safeties and can play all over the field. Steve Spagnulo will need to develop a creative defensive strategy to run against the 49ers.
Unit matchups:
49ers rushing offense vs Chiefs rushing defense - edge: 49ers
49ers passing offense vs Chiefs passing defense - edge: tossup
Chiefs rushing offense vs 49ers rushing defense - edge: 49ers
Chiefs passing offense vs 49ers passing defense - edge: tossup
For what it's worth, Dave Toub has led another elite Chiefs' special teams unit - they ranked 2nd in the league in the regular season per Football Outsiders - as Toub continues to be one of the more overlooked head-coaching candidates around the NFL. The 49ers were middle-of-the-pack in this category, so perhaps the field position game will provide an advantage for the Chiefs.
The Chiefs opened up as a 1 or 1.5 point favorite on most sportsbooks, and I'm actually giving a slight edge to the 49ers at the moment with what I see as a much more complete team. The Chiefs' biggest advantage by far is their passing offense with Mahomes, but the 49ers had one of the very best pass defenses (if not the best) in the league this year, so I'm not sure if the Chiefs will find the same level of success through the air as they have in recent weeks.
My early prediction: 49ers 27 Chiefs 24
