2020 Super Bowl Props
By: Wayne
What's up. After a whirlwind of a weekend in Amsterdam, I'm at the airport getting ready to head back to my temporary home in Barcelona. I land a half-hour before the Super Bowl starts at 12:30 AM Spanish time and am planning on heading straight to a bar to watch what is shaping up to be a doozy between the Chiefs and 49ers. Public money has been riding Kansas City all week, and they are up to 2-point favorites in some books. The real money, as always with the Super Bowl, is in the ridiculous prop bets, though. To help me break it all down, I'm bringing in my buddy Schwartz to share his takes on the best prop lines. If you like reading his stuff let me know in the comments and be sure to check out his article on Kobe Bryant's legacy from the perspective of a Celtics fan.
Hey guys, my I’m Schwartz. I live with Wayne sometimes and we really enjoy yelling at each other about sports. I’m also a Patriots fan, and to distract myself from the fact that the dynasty is done, TB12 is all but gone, and we aren’t playing this Sunday, I’m diving real deep into some prop bets.
Wayne note: Schwartz, you better not spend this entire article talking about the Patriots. That's not what I brought you on here for, don't let it happen again.
Let’s start off with the most important ones: The Puppy Bowl props. The puppy bowl is an Animal Planet Super Bowl pregame special featuring an assortment of adorable pups who are looking for a home, duking it out for gridiron glory. First I’d like to talk about the fact that team Ruff, a team of four-month-old puppies who have never played football, are 7.5 point underDOGS (nice) against team Fluff, another team of four-month-old puppies who have also never played football. I’m no math major but I feel like both teams have generally similar odds of winning the game, due to the literal identical nature of their rosters. Throw the house on team Ruff. If you want slightly longer odds for a nice payout, you can make 35 dollars off of 10 by betting on at least one puppy to “attempt to mate” during the game. I’ve had two puppies, and I will tell you right now that they are excitable little fellows, so I absolutely love these odds. Finally, a purebred dog is listed as +450 to win MVP (most valuable puppy) as opposed to a mixed-breed, which is -850. This may look like an arbitrary line, and a real opportunity to snag some cash. However, don’t be trapped, the grit and drive of a mutt should not be underestimated. Also, there’s like twice as many of them on the field so just leave that bet alone.
Wayne note: Listen to Schwartz on the Puppy Bowl stuff, he knows a thing or two about hairy animals. He also knows something about "attempting to mate", or as he likes to call it... Never mind.
Alright, time to move into bets that involve humans. I mean, not football players yet, but we’re making progress. The first thing you can actually bet on is the length of the National Anthem, with the over/under set at 1:58 at many books. Demi Lovato has sung the anthem longer and longer at each event she’s performed at, and with her last performance lasting 2:11, I love the over since odds are essentially even. Pitbull is listed as -500 to be involved with the halftime show, and I’d be stunned if Mr. 305 doesn’t show up for this Miami showcase. DJ Khaled and Gloria Estefan are both in the + to appear though, so I would keep an eye on those lines. Now the actual headliner is Jennifer Lopez, and her Fiancé, Alex Rodriguez - my favorite athlete of literally all time, you’ll certainly hear more from me on #13 at a later time - is +150 to be shown on camera during the show. Are you kidding me? This is one of the most public couples out there, and Alex is an absolute icon. Not to mention pretty easy on the eyes. It seems extremely likely that he would get at least a couple seconds on screen- this one is my biggest non-football lock. Finally, Barstool President Dave Portnoy - vocal hater of Roger Goodell, and my very own fellow Patriots fan and Masshole- is +750 to get kicked out of the Super Bowl. To me, this is just betting +750 that Dave finds his way into the stadium because if he does they will most certainly remove him. I’m gonna bet that El Pres sneaks himself in just to stick it to that evil ginger who’s ruining our sport.
Wayne note: Pittbull is going to be involved with Fox Sport's pregame show so bank on him showing up during the game as well. Of course, Schwartz didn't just find a way to bring up the Patriots 5 times - he's found a way to talk about ARod, a retired baseball player, during a goddamn Super Bowl article. Whether or not I subject anyone to Schwartz writing about ARod is extremely up in the air and would be a questionable career move for me. We'll see. Also, a quick note on the Masshole thing - Schwartz doesn't currently live in Massachusetts but he certainly embodies the douchebaggery that characterizes the group of "humans" from that area.
Ahhhh finally, if you’ve made it this far you deserve to hear me actually talk about...the Super Bowl. Andy Reid is making just the second appearance of his distinguished career and aims to rectify the one gap on his resume by winning the big one. So, of course, there are prop bets about him. But if you thought these props would have even the slightest thing to do with the ballgame, you’re nuts. Andy Reid is +1400 to wear a Hawaiian shirt while coaching the game, and +1200 to eat a cheeseburger on the sideline during the broadcast. Process that. This dude, who is coaching the biggest game of his career, is considered more likely to eat a goddamn burger on national television than he is to wear a slightly festive shirt. Absolutely unreal. I’m not suggesting you guys touch either of those lines but that did need to be discussed, so thanks for indulging me. Also involving “Big Red,” a popular prop this year is the color of Gatorade to be dumped on the winning coach. Red is the favorite at most books with lines ranging from +125 to +250, and with this being the first red-vs-red Super Bowl, getting in on the higher end of that payout might be a strong move. Now for an Andy-peripheral wager that actually involves football, the line for the first coach’s challenge of the game to be denied is even money. Considering the league’s refusal to actually officiate with any sort of dignity or fairness, and referee’s undying stubbornness, I feel like this one is likely going to hit, especially when you consider how likely the coaches are to challenge Pass Interference, which almost never gets overturned.
Wayne note: We are talking about Andy Reid here, I can't imagine it would be the first sideline hamburger he's snuck in. It also definitely wouldn't be the first time he's botched a flag throw - as great an offensive mind Reid is, he's never been known as an elite game manager. Also, red Gatorade is really gross and I've been seeing a ton of money come in on purple instead. It would be a great way to honor Kobe and definitely tastes better than red Gatorade, which is especially important if the Chiefs do win and Reid gets the Gatorade bath. He won't be able to help himself.
Lastly, I’m going to get a little bit into bets that hinge on football players playing football. Shocker right? First, since I’m really shook up about the Pats’ first-round exit and want to think about the greatest day in team history, it’s just about even money that our miracle 28-3 comeback vs the Falcons 3 years ago gets mentioned during the broadcast. Considering the Niners feature then-Falcons staffer Kyle Shanahan as well handsome and talented 2016 New England backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo, it should come up at least once. Inspired by a Super Bowl that went...less well for us, the odds for a non-QB to toss a touchdown are +330. The offensive ingenuity of both head coaches, the fact that Travis Kelce has already created Chiefs scores out of the wildcat, and the growing trend that this is suddenly the go-to thing to do for teams in a jam in a big game, I absolutely love that line. One of my favorite prop bets in all of sports is the Super Bowl MVP, and this year presents a bevy of interesting lines. Last year, I made my bet of the decade by tossing 10 dollars on 25-1 odds for eventual winner and New England hero Julian Edelman. This year, the favorite is none other than last year’s actual MVP, Patty Ice, who has +105 odds to bring home the trophy and probably slather it with ketchup. Pat has a great chance, but the payout just isn’t enough. Rather, if you’re thinking the Chiefs take home the Lombardi, which also would probably then get smothered in ketchup and stolen by Andy Reid, think about one of Mahomes’ partners in crime, his hyper-elite pass catchers, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, who are +1500 and +1400 to secure the hardware, respectively. If you think the Niners are going to win, or in other words, are correct, there’s a few directions to go in. If you think that the game could be a defensive slugfest like last year in which the winning QB is limited and leans on one dependable receiver, look to the Niners own stud tight end, George Kittle, who is listed at +1400 as well. Deebo Samuel, who has been one of the Niners’ most consistent producers all year, is a bet you can nab at +2500, identical to Edelman a year ago. And finally, if you’re really trying to add some fire into your betting tab, risk 2 dollars on Kendrick Bourne for a potential payout of $500, like I did.As a bonus, you get to make all sorts of Bourne jokes. I’ll even gift you one to start yourself off.
Wayne note: Goddamn it Schwartz, I thought I told you not to mention the Pats again. Also, this piece is just increasingly mean towards Andy Reid. Sorry, Andy. The Chiefs are a big ketchup franchise, and yet the Steelers play in Heinz Field - absurd. Also, there could not be a more Schwartz contribution to an article like this than a shoddily made meme that's marginally funny and kinda just makes you want to laugh at him. Way to put your stamp on this piece buddy.
You are so, unbelievably welcome. If you don’t want a pass catcher, recently dominant Niners RB Raheem Mostert is listed at +700. He’s been the focal point of their dominant ground attack during the playoffs and late season and although the real MVPs would be the linemen if they ground and pound their way to the ring, the trophy would go to Raheem. For some individual props, let’s look at the QBs. The over/under for Pat Mahomes’s passing yardage is 305.5. I see the over as a no-brainer. Even against the Niners’ suffocating pass defense, the Chiefs are going to need to lean on Pat if they want to stay in this game. It might not be his most efficient 300 of the season, but he’ll get there. Pat is also +135 to get picked off before Jimmy G, and I’d throw on that too. Not a knock on the Chiefs phenom, but he’s simply going to have more responsibility in the offense, and more downfield throws. Early in the game, Jimmy could likely not put the ball down the field enough to get intercepted, while Pat will be coming right out of the gates firing it up to his deep threats. Against the Niners aforementioned pass defense, this could lead to an early mistake. The Chiefs have been a slow-starting team during their entire run and while it hasn’t included a Mahomes INT yet, they also haven’t competed against a pass defense quite as strong as San Francisco’s. For the Niners, the receptions under on any of their receivers is a pretty wise bet. They just don’t throw the ball all that many times and while they will certainly need more than single-digit Jimmy Garoppolo passing attempts this week, anyone other than Samuel is in danger of a 1 or 2 catch game. Even Kittle will be matched up with some of the Chiefs’ much-improved safety group, including the Honey Badger, Tyrann Mathieu, who has frankly been great down the stretch for Kansas City. Lastly, the over/under for Tyreek Hill’s longest grab of the game is 28.5 yards. That’s a pretty big play, but as arguably the fastest offensive player to ever step between the sidelines on Super Bowl Sunday, it would be hardly surprising if it hits. I hope you guys enjoyed my first piece on here, and that you use the article to make at least a bit of money. I know I’ll inevitably waffle all week about which ones to punch in and inevitably hold back on the one that would’ve made my month. Good luck and happy Super Bowl week!
Wayne note: Not exactly the same level of hype over Deebo in this game with Sanders and Kittle being better weapons for Jimmy G, but Deebo could break a big play on the ground which would give him a better shot at the Super Bowl MVP. Man, why'd you have to bring up waffles Schwartz? That's about the only thing I miss about you right now. Your waffles are delicious.
Alright, it's gut-check time. Here are my and Schwartz's final predictions as we are mere hours away from the Super Bowl.
Schwartz: 34-28 San Francisco 49ers (Over 53.5)
Wayne: 26-22 San Francisco 49ers (Under 53.5)
How many times have we seen this exact story in the Super Bowl? Great QB coming off a dominant run through the playoffs takes on the toughest defense he's played all year in the biggest game of the season. Who usually comes out on top? The Broncos' win over the Panthers, Giants' win over the Pats (twice), and Seahawks' win over the Broncos reminds us that defense is usually more important than offense in these games. Additionally, the 49ers' offense should give the Chiefs fits, and I believe Jimmy G could deliver a signature performance against an overmatched secondary. Mahomes has been electric, and the Chiefs offense could force this into a shootout, but I trust Jimmy G to keep pace and the San Fran front-seven to make enough big plays to deliver a win.
