NBA Restart Notes

As we surge towards the resumption of the NBA season, the next couple of months of basketball are going to be unlike anything we’ve ever seen. While we head into an unprecedented mini regular season with a potential play-in tournament, the players are making a massive effort to use the NBA as a platform for social activism. The last few months since the NBA abruptly stopped have brought trials and tribulations of the past couple of months with government shutdowns due to COVID-19 and riots in several cities. But now we’re finally ready to sit back and watch some playoff basketball, something the country is in desperate need of right now. First, we’ll have a small slate of regular-season games to finalize seeding in each conference. This guide will serve as a preview for each team ahead of the restart with one key question explored for each team. Of course, the NBA is facing significant obstacles with COVID-19, but each team has a different set of questions to answer. 

Milwaukee Bucks

53-12, 1st seed in Eastern Conference

Major question - can they recapture their elite form?

X-factor - Donte DiVincenzo

The Bucks have been the NBA’s best team during the regular season and feature the likely back-to-back MVP winner Giannis Antetokounmpo who leads the NBA in net rating. Milwaukee was on pace for 67 wins this season before play was postponed and would have to lose all of their remaining regular-season games to not earn the #1 seed. It only took this team 56 games this season to wrap up a playoff berth and they got that done back in February. Along with Giannis, Khris Middleton earned an All-Star nod this season behind impressive shooting numbers - he’s on pace to join the 50/40/90 club this season. The Bucks had two players diagnosed with COVID-19, Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton, but both players are trending toward full availability and Bledsoe arrived in Orlando on Thursday. Bledsoe’s availability will be particularly important as he’s a two-way irritant who can score and pass the ball as well. The Bucks’ biggest X-factor is likely Donte DiVincenzo, a second-year guard out of Villanova who has contributed significantly this season in the absence of Malcolm Brogdon who signed for the Pacers over the offseason. DiVincenzo only started 22 games this year but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him solidify himself in the starting lineup heading into the playoffs, as he provides solid shooting and rebounding as well as excellent defense - he’s also 2nd in the NBA in net rating this year. He’s averaging 14.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per 36 minutes this season. Wesley Matthews is currently the team’s starting 2-guard, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see DiVincenzo end up with more playing time. The rest of the starting lineup is set with Giannis, Middleton, Bledsoe, and Brook Lopez, a dark-horse DPOY name who’s quietly put together an excellent season on the defensive end of the floor. The Bucks don’t have too many questions to answer and this is a title-or-bust season as they hope to take the next step with their superstar Giannis.

Toronto Raptors

46-18, 2nd seed in Eastern Conference

Major question - who starts at center and does the jumbo lineup work?

X-factor - Chris Boucher

The Raptors’ are the reigning NBA champions, and while Finals MVP winner Kawhi Leonard is no longer with the team, they have kept up their elite play this season. Much of their success has centered around Pascal Siakam’s continued improvement as the Cameroonian forward earned his first-ever All-Star nod. The Raptors also seem to be in great shape health-wise heading into the restart of the season as Marc Gasol desperately needed the four months off - he was a part of an NBA and FIBA championship run last season. With Gasol’s return, there is a real question as to who will start at the center between the two of them. Gasol was the starter during the title run but Serge Ibaka has excelled in that role this season as he has averaged 18.3 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. Perhaps the Raptors actually don’t need to choose between the two players, though - head coach Nick Nurse has previously spoken to his willingness to use a “jumbo” lineup with both centers on the floor, Pascal Siakam at the 3, OG Anunoby at the 2, and Kyle Lowry/Fred VanVleet at the point. Siakam and Anunoby certainly have the defensive versatility to move up a position defensively and that lineup would also provide excellent rebounding and shooting. The team’s X-factor could end up being Chris Boucher, a player who has previously only played limited time. However, if the Raps opt to start both Ibaka and Gasol, Boucher would likely be the first big off the bench. Nurse recently said that Boucher’s “certainly drawing some attention from the coaching staff with the way he's playing." He reportedly put on 15 pounds of muscle during the NBA shutdown and could make a surprising impact during the restart. The Raptors still have plenty of talent on their roster to hopefully get back to the Finals, but their lack of top-end scoring could end up dooming them to a second-round exit. Young players like Siakam, VanVleet, and Anunoby have to step up to make sure that doesn’t happen.

Boston Celtics

43-21, 3rd seed in Eastern Conference

Major question - is Daniel Theis/Enes Kanter/Robert Williams enough at center?

X-factor - Robert Williams

After a tough offseason that saw the Celtics lose three key contributors from last season - Kyrie Irving, Marcus Morris, and Al Horford - many pundits questioned whether or not the team would make the playoffs again. However, thanks to impressive breakout seasons from the two Js - Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown - Boston has been able to maintain its contender status. Along with Tatum and Brown, the Celtics have received excellent play from Kemba Walker, a free-agent signing, and Gordon Hayward, who has returned to exceptional form following a gruesome season-ending knee injury last season. I’d be remiss not to mention Marcus Smart here as well, the emotional leader of the team, and one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA. However, where the Celtics don’t have their lineup totally figured out is at the center position. Daniel Theis has been the team’s regular starter at the 5, starting most of the team’s games and contributing with shot-blocking, rebounding, and surprisingly solid long-range shooting. However, Theis has only played 23.8 minutes per game and hasn’t proven himself to be a massive playoff contributor. Enes Kanter has only been solid at center contributing with decent scoring and rebounding but rarely doing enough on the defensive end. Robert Williams, the team’s third center on the depth chart, is the guy I have penciled in as the X-factor and I believe he could end up playing much more than anyone expects. The Time Lord has only played 14 minutes per game in 23 games this season, but he’s averaged 4.0 blocks per 36  minutes across his two professional seasons and might have the highest defensive upside of the trio of centers. If Robert Williams can step up and become a more regular contributor, he could solve the biggest question on the team and help them become a real contender for the championship.

Miami Heat

41-24, 4th seed in Eastern Conference

Major question - how deep should the rotation be?

X-factor - Andre Iguodala

During the regular season, a roster having depth can be the difference between a top seed and a playoff miss, especially if a team endures injuries. For the Heat, their impressive depth has catapulted them to the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference and allowed them to surpass their win total from last year before this season was even over. Of course, the offseason acquisition of Jimmy Butler (five-time All-Star) has paid dividends for Miami, as has the monstrous breakout campaign from Bam Adebayo who’s one of the favorites for the Most Improved Player award. The Heat have benefitted from transcendent play from other young studs like Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, and Derrick Jones Jr. as well as veterans like Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder. However, the team must determine how many of their players should actually be utilized in the playoffs. Most true contenders will run lineups that are 7 or 8 men deep in the postseason with their top players often seeing 40+ minutes per game. Miami obviously doesn’t have to do this, but they must maximize their efficiency in a tight Eastern Conference. Andre Iguodala, who the team acquired in a trade-deadline deal with the Grizzlies, could also factor into the rotation and is a former Finals MVP who was a crucial piece on several Finals runs with the Warriors. However, he only averaged 4.4 points in 18.5 minutes per game. Iggy will contribute with defensive grit and veteran leadership regardless of whether or not his shots are falling, but if he can regain some of his previously excellent form it would be monumental for this Heat team. Iguodala is 36 years old now and the days of 18-point scoring seasons as a starter are past him, but he could help make Miami a contender this season. We’ll just have to see how involved he is as Erik Spoelstra looks to work through what is an increasingly complicated rotation of players.

Indiana Pacers

39-26, 5th seed in Eastern Conference

Major question - how healthy is Victor Oladipo?

X-factor - Justin and Aaron Holiday

The Pacers began this season with a few new faces - Malcolm Brogdon, Jeremy Lamb, and T.J. Warren, most notably - but the key to the team’s success this year has been the breakout of Domantas Sabonis. Sabo has come through with a career-high 18.5 points and 12.4 rebounds per game as he has seen a massive usage rate with the Pacers’ key players out. Unfortunately for the Pacers, Domas has left the Orlando bubble with a plantar fascitis issue and while he hopes to eventually rejoin the team, they will have to push forward without their All-Star forward. Victor Oladipo has opted to play in the restart, though, after some question over his availability due to his elongated recovery from a ruptured quad tendon he suffered last January. Dipo’s health will be the key factor for a Pacers’ lineup that is expected to be without Sabonis and Jeremy Lamb who was ruled out for the remainder of the season earlier this year. In the 2018-19 season, prior to his injury, Oladipo was averaging 18.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game on his way to his second-straight All-Star nod but he hasn’t looked like the same player this season. If he’s back to 100%, the Pacers have dark-horse title potential, especially if Sabonis returns to the team. The duo of brothers in Aaron and Justin Holiday will be the X factors for the Pacers getting to where they want to be as they will be heavily relied upon without a healthy Jeremy Lamb. The Holidays both contribute with lights-out 3-point shooting, while Aaron is more of a drive-and-dish guy and Justin is more of a 3-and-D player. Both guys will be important pieces for the Pacers’ postseason run.

Philadelphia 76ers

39-26, 6th seed in Eastern Conference

Major question - can the team play outside of Philly?

X-factor - Shake Milton

The big news out of Sixers’ camp this week has been Al Horford’s shift to the second unit - the team has opted to move Ben Simmons from point guard to power forward in an effort to improve the team’s spacing. Replacing Simmons at point guard will be Shake Milton, which leads us to our X factor for this team. Milton has had an impressive season for the Sixers - he has averaged 17.9 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per-36 minutes and has been especially impactful from long range - he’s the best 3-point shooter on the team at 45.3%. If Milton can handle the full starting load and provide some much-needed spacing along with some secondary playmaking, the Sixers would look like an entirely different team on offense. They’re going to need to look like a different team, too, as their record away from Philadelphia has been highly concerning. At home, the Sixers have posted a 29-2 record and bullied any and all challengers with their massive, physical lineup. However, they have gone just 10-24 on the road and have often struggled to generate offense at the same rate away from home. The Sixers aren’t a very good offense to begin with - they score just the 21st-most points per game this year - but their scoring away from home has been abysmal as they’re the sixth-worst team in points per game on the road. It will be very interesting to see if the Sixers continue to have the same struggles away from the Wells Fargo Center as there won’t be any fans at the games in Orlando. Either way, the team will hope that Milton being added to the starting lineup can provide the right balance of spacing and shot-creation without tanking the team’s elite defense.

Brooklyn Nets

30-34, 7th seed in Eastern Conference

Major question - do they have enough bodies?

X-factor - Jamal Crawford

A couple of months ago, NBA fans everywhere wondered whether or not a months-long hiatus from basketball would mean the return of Kevin Durant this season. Now we have the answer to that question, and not only do the Nets not have KD but they are also going to be without Kyrie Irving. In addition to injuries to the team’s two mega-stars, a handful of Brooklyn players are out indefinitely after being diagnosed with COVID-19 including Spencer Dinwiddie, DeAndre Jordan, Taurean Prince, and Michael Beasley. At this point, it’s hard to even know if the Nets will have enough healthy bodies to properly participate in postseason action. Since the postponement of the NBA season, the Nets have signed Tyler Johnson, Jamal Crawford, Donta Hall, Lance Thomas, and Justin Anderson, all of whom are going to take on important roles in the restart. They also have Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, who was signed in February. In addition to all that, Jacque Vaughn was named the interim head coach shortly before the NBA stopped with the Nets’ front office planning to give him the remainder of the season to audition for the full-time gig. The odds could not be more stacked against him as we resume play in Orlando. Jamal Crawford needs to go on a scoring binge for the Nets to look like a functional NBA offense, and if you’re relying on a 40-year-old guard to score for your offense to survive you’re in a precarious position. Don’t expect any big things from this Nets team, and if Vaughn can somehow deliver a playoff series win with this skeleton crew he fully deserves to be the head coach next season.

Orlando Magic

30-35, 8th seed in Eastern Conference

Major question - can Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz get healthy?

X-factor - Michael Carter-Williams

As with many of the teams who will resume play in Orlando, the biggest question for the Magic is the health of some of its best players. Jonathan Isaac resumed to action in a Monday scrimmage after having not played since January 1st due to a knee injury, and while he only played seven minutes, he was a formidable presence with 13 points and 7 rebounds. He’s arguably been the team’s most important player this season, particularly with his dominance on the defensive end, and his full health is crucial to this team’s limited postseason hopes. Markelle Fultz has also evolved into a productive player for the Magic despite his failed time in Philly - he was averaging 15.4 points and 6.4 assists per game in the month of March before the NBA was postponed. His ability to provide playmaking for the rest of the team’s players is going to be an integral part of the Magic offense in the playoffs. If Fultz isn’t ready to go, Michael Carter-Williams will take on a bigger role for the team. He has provided a solid punch off the bench for the Magic as he is averaging 14.1 points, 6.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 2.1 steals per 36 minutes. He’s going to be an X-factor with his ability to provide offense off the bench or lead the team’s offense if Fultz isn’t ready to go.

Washington Wizards

24-40, 9th seed in Eastern Conference

Major question - what is the biggest need heading into the draft?

X-factor - Rui Hachimura

The Wizards aren’t going to make the playoffs. The team’s two best offensive players this season, Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans, are not going to be taking the floor in Orlando. Washington is 5.5 games behind the Magic at the moment and needs to get to within four games to qualify for a play-in tournament. The odds are very much stacked against this depleted Wizards squad. If they’re going to make a splash at Disney World, it’s going to have to be spurred by rookie forward Rui Hachimura who’s the team’s third-leading scorer with 13.4 points per game. His per-36 minutes numbers - 16.2 points and 7.3 rebounds - suggest he could be ready to make a more significant impact. More likely, it will be a short stay in the bubble for a Wizards’ team that is in need of an injection of young talent. Hachimura will have a chance to solidify himself as a centerpiece for the team moving forward as they look to determine what their biggest need is heading into the draft. Bradley Beal appears to be around for the long haul and with John Wall potentially making a return next season this Wizards team should be back in the playoffs next year.

Los Angeles Lakers

49-14, 1st seed in Western Conference

Major question - what does the guard rotation look like without Rondo/Bradley?

X-factor - Alex Caruso

The Lakers have championship aspirations this season as they have dominated in the regular season more than anyone expected. The duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis has been the NBA’s best tandem this season. However, the Lakers were dealt a significant blow when Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley were ruled out of the NBA restart, Rondo with a broken thumb and Bradley due to personal reasons related to COVID-19. Rondo was the team’s second-leading player in assists this season and had played an important role in creating offense for players and taking some of the playmaking burden off of LeBron James’s shoulders. Bradley’s offense has been hot and cold this season, but he was one of the best perimeter defenders on the roster. LA has recently brought in Dion Waiters and J.R. Smith to help compensate for the absence of Rondo and Bradley from the lineup. Meanwhile, Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, two solid 3-and-D players, will likely start in the backcourt alongside LeBron. However, the player I really have my eye on is Alex Caruso. The third-year guard has only played 17.8 minutes per game this year, but he’s been a dominant force on defense and has some upside as a 3-point shooter - he’s shooting 35.5% from deep this year. It will be interesting to see how this backcourt rotation fits together and how many minutes Smith and Waiters will play having had no experience with this roster this season - they combined for 38 points off the bench in the Lakers’ scrimmage against the Wizards. Meanwhile, Caruso started and produced 17 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 steals. Caruso is the guy I expect to take a big step forward in Orlando.

Los Angeles Clippers

44-20, 2nd seed in Western Conference

Major question - is Paul George really 100% healthy?

X-factor - Reggie Jackson

The Clips had put together an excellent regular season prior to play being called off as their 44-20 record is very impressive for a team who has struggled with health consistency. However, the team looks to be the healthiest it’s been all year. The big news for the Clippers over the months-long hiatus is the continued improvement in health for Paul George. While George has been great this season - he’s the team’s second-leading scorer - he hasn’t quite lived up to his elite production from last season which earned him a First-Team All-NBA nod and the third-place spot on the MVP ballot. However, recent reports out of Clippers camp are extremely positive regarding George’s health and he’s reportedly feeling 100% healthy for the first time since he had double shoulder surgery over the offseason. George put up 28.0 points, 8.2 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 2.2 steals per game while shooting 38.6% on 9.8 3-point attempts per game. If he can get back to that level of production, there may not be any team in the NBA that has a hope or a prayer of guarding him and Leonard on the perimeter. Of course, the Clips have plenty of supporting talent on the roster including the best bench in the NBA in points per game. That bench received a boost with the addition of Reggie Jackson prior to the beginning of the basketball hiatus, something many may forget. He only played in 9 games for the Clippers this season but he can certainly provide supporting playmaking and scoring for this team. He averaged 17.5 points and 6.0 assists per 36 minutes in those 9 games with LA. The Clippers have one of the deepest rotations in the NBA and they’re going to need to figure out which players they intend on depending upon in their playoff run, but don’t be surprised if Jackson plays a significant role late in this season.

Denver Nuggets

43-22, 3rd seed in Western Conference

Major question - is the all-big lineup feasible?

X-factor - Michael Porter Jr.

The Nuggets are just 1.5 games behind the Clippers for the #2 seed in the Western Conference and can make a strong case to being better than any non-LA team in the West. They have an excellent chance to make some noise in the playoffs. During the NBA’s scrimmages this week, the Nuggets rolled out a five-man lineup of Nikola Jokic at point guard, Jerami Grant at shooting guard, Bol Bol at small forward, Paul Millsap at power forward, and Mason Plumlee at center. Despite some sloppy work on offense at times, that lineup led the Nuggets to a win over the Washington Wizards during the first scrimmage. With Jamal Murray and Monte Morris looking set to go, it’s unlikely Jokic will need to play many minutes at point guard if any. However, the Nuggets’ ability to load up with size on the court and still provide enough spacing and athleticism is a huge strength for the side. Grant, who’s 6’9”, should play plenty of minutes at the 2 and 3 spots and Bol Bol has possibly carved out a role for himself after some encouraging play during the scrimmages. Bol is a 7’2” do-it-all rookie who produced 16 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists, and 6 blocks. His combination of absurd length, sneaky mobility, and floor-spacing potential could give him a star future in this league. The guy who I’m really excited to see when the NBA resumes for Denver, though, is forward Michael Porter Jr. MPJ’s per-36 minutes are great (19.2 points and 10.7 rebounds) and he’s shooting 42.2% from 3-point range this season. His defense can be a real negative for this team at times, but if he’s fully healthy there’s no question that he can provide a massive spark offensively. MPJ is a do-it-all scoring forward who can shoot from anywhere on the floor and is adept at creating his own offense. He’s exactly the type of guy the Nuggets need to take them to the next level.

Utah Jazz

41-23, 4th seed in Western Conference

Major question - how will the offense work without Bogdanovic?

X-factor - Jordan Clarkson

The Jazz added Bogdan Bogdanovic over the offseason in hopes of modernizing their offensive approach and it really worked - Bog Bog was averaging 20.2 points per game this season with 41.4% 3-point shooting. However, Bogdanovic had season-ending wrist surgery in May and will not participate in the restart of the season. The Jazz will need to find different ways to replicate his offensive production. Of course, it starts Donovan Mitchell who is averaging career-highs across the board with 24.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game in his third professional season, earning his first All-Star nod. However, the Jazz have struggled to generate much consistent offense outside of him and Bogdanvoic. Rudy Gobert is one of the best screen-setters in the NBA, but he’s not really a guy who you want to rely on to create his own offense. Mike Conley and Joe Ingles will be involved, but neither guy is an elite scorer and are better as supporting pieces on the offensive side of the floor. Royce O’Neale will likely start in place of Bogdanovic, but he’s only averaging 7.7 points per 36 minutes. Jordan Clarkson may be the key to unlocking the Jazz offense as he has scored 22.1 points per 36 minutes in 34 games with the team this season. He’s a solid 3-point shooter and a great driver, and the Jazz will need him to provide a scoring spark off the bench as the Utah starting lineup may struggle to score consistently. We already known the Jazz are one of the best defensive squads in the league but the key to them going on a deep postseason run is finding consistent scoring.

Oklahoma City Thunder

40-24, 5th seed in Western Conference

Major question - is there enough shooting?

X-factor - Andre Roberson

Nobody expected the Thunder to be here. After Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Jerami Grant were traded away over the offseason, it looked like OKC was content to embrace a full-scale rebuild. The new arrivals wouldn’t have it. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Danilo Gallinari, both of whom came over from the Clippers in the George trade, have averaged 19+ points per game. It’s particularly been an impressive breakout season for SGA who’s a MIP candidate in his second year. Chris Paul has been the key to this team’s success, though, as the veteran point guard has turned back the clock with an All-Star campaign as he is averaging 17.7 points and 6.8 assists per game. The team’s success has been particularly impressive as they have struggled in one of the most important aspects of the modern NBA - 3-point shooting. The Thunder rank 18th in 3-point percentage and are the 4th-worst team in 3-point makes per game. However, during the scrimmages the Thunder shooters were feeling good as they knocked down 40.1% of 3-point looks (would be the best rate in the NBA over the full season). Whether or not that improvement in shooting is sustainable is likely the key to the Thunder going on a deep postseason run as they have been consistently solid on both sides of the ball this season. The re-introduction of Andre Roberson to the lineup is something to watch as the veteran guard is looking to make his first appearance since January 2018. He isn’t a 3-point shooter like the team needs - he’s averaging just 25.7% from long range over the course of his career - but he’s carved out a reputation as one of the game’s best perimeter defenders and he’s a bully on that side of the ball. His physicality and athleticism would give the team a different, much-needed element for potential matchups against guys like LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, and James Harden down the stretch. The Thunder have already exceeded expectations for this season, but they shouldn’t be written out in the Western Conference Championship conversation.

Houston Rockets

40-24, 6th seed in Western Conference

Major question - can the second unit provide enough offense?

X-factor - Austin Rivers

The Rockets have been one of the NBA’s best offenses this season - they rank second in offensive rating and generate the most 3-point makes per game this year. The duo of James Harden and Russell Westbrook has been statistically dominant this season and the rest of the starting lineup has done great as well. However, the second unit for the Rockets hasn’t provided the same level of offensive potency this year as they rank third-worst in the NBA in bench points per game. That bench could be put under further strain as Eric Gordon is going to miss at least the next couple of weeks with an ankle issue. Danuel House will replace Gordon in the starting lineup, depriving the bench lineup of one its better shooters. The Rockets’ bench performed quite well during the scrimmages this past week, averaging 43.3 bench points per game (compared to 28.0 during the regular season). The recently acquired Demarre Carroll and Luc Mbah a Moute will likely be picking up significant minutes with Eric Gordon out, and their presence on defense could allow the bench unit to be one of the better defensive groups in the NBA. The key to playing time in Houston is and always will be shooting with the Rockets attempting more 3-point shots than any other team. Ben McLemore, Jeff Green, and Chris Clemons have been among the more productive reserves in Houston this season, but the guy I’m really interested in seeing is Austin Rivers. The veteran guard is a better individual defender than he’s ever gotten credit for and he is shooting 35.8% from 3-point range this season. He’s likely going to pick up some significant additional work without Eric Gordon in the lineup as Rivers will be the Rockets’ top guard off the bench. If he can continue to provide perimeter defense and 3-point shooting, Rivers will be one of the team’s more valuable players. 

Dallas Mavericks

40-27, 7th seed in Western Conference

Major question - is Luka Doncic ready to perform under the spotlight?

X-factor - Maxi Kleber

It’s been a quiet hiatus in Dallas as the Mavericks haven’t made any significant transactions since the NBA was postponed. This is a young roster with fringe title hopes in this year’s postseason, but the Mavs have significantly outperformed expectations. Of course, at the center of it all has been sophomore guard Luka Doncic who defies his age every time he steps on the court. Doncic was a first-time All-Star this season and is likely going to be a First-Team All-NBA guard behind per-game averages of 28.7 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 8.7 assists. His statistical production has been historically great and he’s led the Mavericks to the best offensive rating in NBA history this season. As great as he is, though, Doncic is still a 21-year-old guard who has never participated in the playoffs before. He has struggled under pressure this season with a 12-14 record in “clutch time” appearances while his field goal percentage has dropped from 46.1% to 32.3% while his 3-point shooting has dropped from 31.8% to 17.1%. Doncic’s ability to perform when the pressure is on will be put to the test in Orlando as he’s going to be facing challenges no matter which of the talented Western Conference teams the Mavs take on. The Mavs would have to really fall apart during the 8-game restart to fall to the #8 seed as they are currently seven games ahead of the Grizzlies. The big question mark for the Mavericks is going to be in the frontcourt alongside Kristaps Porzingis. Dwight Powell is out for the remainder of the season with an Achilles injury and Willey Cauley-Stein opted out of participating in play in Orlando. As of now, Maxi Kleber is the projected starting center without much depth behind him. He’s going to need to handle somewhere in the realm of 36 minutes per game down the stretch as Boban Marjanovic is the only other player capable of picking up minutes at center, and he’s not built to play bulk minutes. Alternatively, Kristaps Porzingis could play more at the five. Kleber has been solid this season with per 36 minute averages of 12.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, and 2.3 3-pointers made. He’s going to need to step up in a big way without Powell and WCS, assuming the Mavs want to go with their preferred two big man lineups. 

Memphis Grizzlies

32-33, 8th seed in Western Conference

Major question - have Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke improved over the “offseason”?

X-factor - Dillon Brooks

Taylor Jenkins has led the resurgent Grizzlies to a surprisingly good season on the back of some impressive play from the soon-to-be Rookie of the Year Ja Morant. Morant is averaging 17.6  points and 6.9 assists per game in his first campaign for this upstart franchise. Along with Morant, his fellow rookie Brandon Clarke has outperformed expectations as he has gone for 20.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.4 blocks per 36 minutes. Both Morant and Clarke are basically coming off what amounts to the full length of an offseason, and while there are obviously some other variables at play, the time off should help these young players further evolve their games. The Grizzlies are currently 3.5 games ahead of the Blazers for the 8 seed and will need to work hard to maintain their positioning during the NBA’s restart. The biggest key for the Grizzlies is likely Dillon Brooks. The third-year winger has had a breakout campaign alongside Morant, averaging a career-high 15.7 points per game while shooting 36.9% from 3-point range. Brooks’s splits in wins vs losses are eye-opening - in wins he’s averaging 19.1 points per game while shooting 45% from the field and has a net rating of +2. In losses he’s averaging 12.3 points per game while shooting 34.6% from the field and has a net rating of -31. MINUS 31. There’s arguably no player who’s had a bigger impact on the swinging results of Grizzlies games this season and this team needs the good Brooks to show up to Orlando if they want to hold onto their playoff spot.

Portland Trail Blazers

32-33, 9th seed in Western Conference

Major question - what is the big man rotation with Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins healthy?

X-factor - Anfernee Simons

After a 53-29 record last season that earned the team the #3 seed in the Western Conference, it’s been a disappointing fall back to earth for Portland. After six straight playoff appearances, the Blazers are in danger of missing the postseason this year. Damian Lillard has turned in another excellent, likely All-NBA season, but he’s not received the same level of help he’s used to. The losses of Maurice Harkless and Al Farouq-Aminu have been more impactful than perhaps the front office would have liked. Injuries have hampered the squad as well, most notably to Jusuf Nurkic who hasn’t played since last March. Nurkic had been enjoying a career-best campaign for the Blazers that season and the team has since acquired Hassan Whiteside to fill the center spot. Whiteside has been great in Nurkic’s absence, averaging 16.3 points, 14.2 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks per game. His boost to the team’s offensive rating (+7.3 points per 100 possessions) has been particularly impressive. However, Nurkic can provide a different type of offensive value with his solid playmaking out of the post and his ability to stretch the floor more than Whiteside. Nurkic’s full health will be a boon to the team’s success, as will the return of Zach Collins who has only played in three games this season. The Blazers will need to determine whether they want to start Whiteside or Nurkic at center and whether or not Collins is the right guy to be the frontcourt partner for either of them. The X-factor for this team is Anfernee Simons who is a 21-year-old guard and can deliver an offensive punch off the bench for his side - they’ll need all the scoring they can muster to claim a playoff spot.

New Orleans Pelicans

28-36, 10th seed in Western Conference

Major question - is Zion Williamson ready?

X-factor - Lonzo Ball

The biggest question for the Pelicans’ ability to qualify for the postseason is the questionable health of rookie phenom Zion Williamson. Zion participated in limited capacity in the Pelicans’ opening game against the Jazz, and it wasn’t enough to help them get the win. If he’s only able to play limited bursts during the restart, the Pels won’t be able to win enough games to qualify for the playoffs. Zion is averaging 23.1 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game this season and has been the team’s best player for much of this campaign with all due respect to Brandon Ingram. The Pelicans have gone 10-10 with Zion in the lineup which would have made them a playoff team over an 82-game pace. Along with their rookie sensation, the Pelicans have benefitted from inspired play out of their young players who came over from the Lakers - Josh Hart, Brandon Ingram, and Lonzo Ball. Lonzo in particular has had an exciting season with career-highs in scoring (12.3 points per game) and 3-point shooting (37.9%). His long-range shooting has been integral to the team’s success as it allows him to benefit from more space in his elite playmaking. The Pelicans are 4.5 games out of the #8 seed now and with their ceiling hanging in the balance, they need the Zion Williamson-Lonzo Ball combination to be at its best. Ingram’s scoring has been consistent all year but if those three guys aren’t clicking, it’s going to be a short stay in Orlando for the Pels.

Sacramento Kings

28-36, 11th seed in Western Conference

Major question - how can they manage their missing pieces?

X-factor - Buddy Hield

The Kings are technically still alive in the playoff race - they’re 3.5 games behind the Grizzlies after the Pelicans’ loss last night. The Kings have several question marks due to injuries and they’ll need to figure out who’s available for the stretch run. De’Aaron Fox has been dealing with a sprained ankle, Harrison Barnes is coming back from a bout with COVID-19, and Alex Len is day-to-day as he’s also recovering from COVID-19. Perhaps the biggest news over the hiatus was the foot injury to Marvin Bagley which will keep the second-year forward out indefinitely. He hasn’t quite made the sophomore leap many expected, but he’s still an integral player as he averages 14.2 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. The Kings will need to navigate these absences as every game is must-win from here on out. One of the Kings’ best offensive weapons at times is Buddy Hield who’s averaging 19.8 points per game on 39.5% from 3-point range. He was sent to the bench midway through this season, which has actually helped him boost his efficiency - he’s shot 47.6% from 3-point range in 20 games as a reserve this year. That type of shooting clip from deep isn’t sustainable but he’s capable of being the leader offensively for this team and if he can get hot from range he could be the difference-maker in a playoff push for the Kings.

San Antonio Spurs

27-36, 12th seed in Western Conference

Major question - how does the offense work without LaMarcus Aldridge?

X-factor - Lonnie Walker

The Spurs are going to be using this restart as mostly an opportunity to get their young guys some minutes as they are too far out of the playoff picture and will be without LaMarcus Aldridge, who has arguably been the team’s best player this season. DeMar DeRozan is still the leader offensively for this team as he’s averaging 22.2 points and 5.6 assists per game this season. However, young guards like Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, and Lonnie Walker will need to step up for this team to succeed. Walker in particular intrigues me with his first-round pedigree and flashes of star potential. Orlando could be the perfect environment for him to finally start putting it all together. The Spurs are pretty much out of the playoff picture at this point and barring any crazy developments this should be viewed as the ending to a lottery-bound season. If Walker becomes a real part of the team’s core moving forward, it will make their draft-day decision a little less stressful. If the Spurs can get within four games of the Grizzlies they would qualify for a play-in tournament, but I don’t love their odds to get there.

Phoenix Suns

26-39, 13th seed in Western Conference

Major question - will Kelly Oubre be ready to play?

X-factor - Cameron Johnson

The Suns have had an up-and-down season but mostly one of significant progress under first-year head coach Monty Williams. The core of Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton, Kelly Oubre, and Mikal Bridges is one with some serious talent and Suns’ fans should be excited for the future of this team. They have a tall task to make the playoffs, even with the potential play-in tournament in the cards. There are no easy matchups in Orlando. The player I’m keeping an eye on is Kelly Oubre, who was ruled out of the Suns game on Friday. He can provide two-way athleticism and shooting upside to this lineup and has been one of the team’s most important players. In his absence, other wings will need to step up, and Cameron Johnson should have a great opportunity to do so. The 24-year-old rookie out of UNC is shooting 39.7% from 3-point range this season and would provide a shooting boost to the team’s lineup. Every game is a must-win from here on out, and a run of binge shooting from Johnson would be vital to the Suns qualifying for the postseason play-in, especially if Oubre is unable to participate.