Eastern Conference Finals Preview: #3 Celtics vs. #5 Heat

By Schwartz

There were still seconds left on the clock at the end of the Celtics’ gritty Game 7 Eastern Conference Semifinal victory over the Toronto Raptors, but the TNT officiating crew said what we were all thinking; “The Celtics can start to prepare for Miami.” It’s a tough way of thinking, as all of Shamrock Nation, including the players, want nothing more than to revel in their triumph, but it’s the only necessary mindset; on to Miami. Because as ugly as the finish was, the Celtics have a golden chance to win the Eastern Conference Finals that nobody expected; Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat.

Now I know what you’re thinking- no, it’s not 2012, these Celtics and Heat teams are extremely different than the ones who needed 7 games to decide a conference champion just under a decade ago- namely, these two were much bigger surprises. Very few analysts would have imagined it before the season, or even when the playoffs started, but these are the two teams left standing to duke it out for a spot in the NBA finals. For the Heat, the road was shockingly the more straightforward one, as they leapt out to an astounding 3-0 lead over the Milwaukee Bucks, eventually completing the gentleman’s sweep in game 5 in a game where (largely-neutralized) MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo was sidelined with an injury. The Celtics, on the other hand, were considered by many to be less of an underdog against the defending World Champs, but fewer ESPN analysts selected them than Miami to advance to the Conference Finals. Nonetheless, it was a series between two evenly-matched teams that had absolutely everything- blowouts, wire-to-wire games, clutch buzzer-beaters, big defensive stops, massive scoring slumps, signature offensive performances, officiating controversy galore, multiple overtime periods, and no shortage of late-game excitement. Through it all, however, Boston always looked like the better team, and never trailed in terms of games won, as the “away” team won all seven (neutral-site) games. Now, both clubs are in a position that very few outside of their players and staff thought they would be in, but one at which they themselves never doubted they’d arrive. So, there’s only one remaining question- who will continue to survive and advance, and represent the Eastern Conference in this year’s NBA finals?

The coaches

We’ll start our discussion from the top, the men whose influence touches every play, all 48 minutes- the head coaches. Erik Spoelstra and Brad Stevens are two of the most brilliant coaches in all of sports today, let alone basketball. Spo in particular has done it all- took a team of superstars to two championships, and now has led a ragtag group of overachievers to a 4-1 victory against a record-breaking Bucks team. There is no doubt that he has had a huge role in maximizing the effect of youngsters such as Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro- and to an even greater extent, All-Star and Most Improved Player finalist Bam Adebayo. Similarly, he has elevated veteran role player Jae Crowder from a trade afterthought into a significant contributor to the Heat’s playoff success. There is no question that while the Heat matched up well with the Bucks, they had a sizable talent deficit and it took a mastermind head coach to truly exploit the advantages his team had in the matchup. That’s exactly what Spoelstra did, and it’s one of the biggest reasons I’m writing about his squad instead of the Bucks. The Heat believed that, entering the bubble, they had a mental advantage, a professional culture that would allow them to focus on their game despite the unique circumstances, and they were right. This success can be largely attributed to a head coach who is an expert at setting the culture, and maximizing his roster.

Brad Stevens, however, has been the king of elevating his roster to a level higher than the sum of its parts. Whether it was taking the mess of a roster he inherited to the playoffs years ahead of schedule, salvaging an Eastern Conference Finals trip on the shoulders of teenagers and journeymen after crushing injuries to Kyrie and Gordon Hayward, or even this year, continuing the Celtics’ recent success after the departure of Irving, Al Horford, Marcus Morris, and Aron Baynes, four massive contributors from the past few seasons, Brad has led the Celtics beyond expectations almost every year he has been at the helm. This series was one of his best, as it was nothing short of a chess match between two grandmasters, as he went toe to toe with reigning NBA champion and Coach of the Year Nick Nurse- and won. However, there is one thing that he hasn’t accomplished, one that looms large when you’re the coach of the NBA’s winningest franchise- he hasn’t brought banner #18 to TD Garden, or even gotten his Celts to the Finals. You could spin this by saying he’s as hungry and motivated as any coach in the league, and that may be true. But in the battle of minds that will be on display in the ECF, I have to give the edge to the coach who’s actually been there four times, and won it twice, not to mention the guy with the less talented group who toppled an enormous juggernaut in Milwaukee. Brad is a legend on the rise, but he will be hard pressed to out-coach Spoelstra in this epic showdown of fantastic leaders

The Stars

Although Nick Nurse might tell you otherwise, the coach has to stay on the sidelines, on-court leadership has to come from someone else. Luckily for both of these squads, they have two of the league’s toughest veteran leaders to rally their teams into this battle. In fact, both are longtime underdogs with a chip on their shoulder, spending their first season with their current team. For the Heat, it’s Jimmy Butler, one of the most driven athletes I’ve ever watched, a guy who has a borderline-maniacal work ethic and desire to win. From a homeless childhood, to Junior College ball, to mid-major Marquette to the NBA, Jimmy has always had an unmatched hunger and drive to make it to the next level and a refusal to fail to do so. His past has made him one of the most mentally and physically tough players in the NBA, and that killer instinct was on display as he led the Heat to a stunning upset of the Bucks, highlighted by a 40-point explosion in game one and another 30-point outburst in game two. It’s worth noting that it has often taken strong three-point shooting performances to take down these Celtics, and that is an area where Jimmy has struggled this season. Regardless of any shortcomings, though, after spending years fraught with disappointing early-round exits during stops in Chicago, Minnesota, and Philly, Butler has shown just how much he is relishing the opportunity to achieve something special in Miami.

Kemba on the other hand has absolutely no playoff resume, having spent his entire career until this past fall on the always-depressing Charlotte Bobcats/Hornets. This is actually his first trip past the first round, let alone within four victories of a trip to the finals. As a 6-footer (at most), Kemba has always been a physical underdog, and has spent his whole life finding crafty ways to create his own shots and defend much bigger guards, resulting in an extremely fun to watch on-court style that is highly evocative of old-school NYC street ballers. He hasn’t gotten to show it in the NBA yet, but his legendary 2011 NCAA tournament run should leave absolutely no doubt that deep down, this guy is nothing but a winner. Although I’ve watched almost all of Kemba’s postgame interviews this year, I’ve heard him talk about his own game maybe a half-dozen times. His only priority is the Boston Celtics, a stark contrast to some of the stars the team has had in years past, as he has led the complete culture overhaul that has allowed the Celts’ young stars to flourish. Like Butler, he knows how rare this opportunity is, and he’s worked far too hard to let it slip, especially after a highly disappointing- and likely, highly motivating- series against the Raptors, and after questions about the status of his injured knee threatened to end his season prematurely. He will be salivating at the chance to attack a Miami defense that has somewhat struggled to defend quick guards who penetrate from the perimeter, a weakness that the Bucks were either unwilling or unable to exploit. Still, despite everything both of these men have accomplished, this is both of their first trips to the Conference Finals- neither really has a track record that suggests what will happen next. It’ll be thrilling to see who can step up and bring their team a step closer to their ultimate goal of becoming champions.

As well as hyper-elite coaches and driven veteran leaders, both of these teams feature a bevy of young stars and key role players who will help to define the story of this year’s NBA. Nonetheless, the only one of this group that transcends the label of “young star” and trends more towards the stratosphere of “superstar” is Boston’s 22-year-old phenom Jayson Tatum. Having earned his first All-Star nod this year, Tatum has been an absolute menace on both ends of the floor over the second half of this season, as well as the playoffs. He has emerged as the team’s leading scorer, an elite shot-creator and shooter from all across the floor, a serious rebounder, and a much-improved passer and defender. Simply put, he’s on his way to becoming an all-around, two-way mega-star, and is likely the best player in this series. The one concern for Tatum in these playoffs is that he has not necessarily shown that he is the “closer” that a championship team needs, as he was fairly ineffective on offense down the stretch in the Celtics’ game 7 win over Toronto, as well as a handful of the preceding games. This issue might only be exacerbated in the Miami series, as he will likely have to deal with a very skilled and intense Butler defending him in these same situations. One of the biggest determining factors in Boston’s success in this series, and beyond, is whether or not he will be the player that his skill dictates he can be when the team needs him most. We’ve all seen his ability to take over a game in the regular season, and even in the postseason- but he will need to do it in the closing minutes if the Celtics are going to continue to advance deeper into this postseason, and for him to solidify his standing among the league’s very best players as he has begun to do this season.

Although Tatum has been absolutely brilliant, I would be remiss to not discuss the Heat’s own first-time All Star, Bam Adebayo. More of a silent contributor, Bam’s value is often more on the defensive end. While very effective inside, Adebayo is a mostly one-dimensional scoring threat who doesn’t really have a three-point shot, and struggles mightily from the free-throw line. That being said, he hit a number of big shots during the Bucks series- shots we haven’t seen from him in any sort of volume before. It’s possible that he’s expanding his repertoire, and that will only serve to increase his value in the Celtics series and beyond. It is also worth noting that his five assists per game are quite an impressive figure for a center/power forward, not a role that is often associated with creating shots for others. Defensively, however, he played an enormous part in taking down the Bucks, as he was very often the guy who drew the assignment of guarding (presumptive) two-time reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, and he did a damn good job with it. During the three full games he played against Miami, before going down with an injury early in game four, Giannis was limited to just over 22 points per game on 45% shooting from the field, after averaging 29.5 and 55% in those two figures during the regular season. While the Heat will certainly need to defend at least as well as the Raptors did to have a shot in this series, and will thus rely heavily on Adebayo’s services, it’s worth noting that there isn’t really a “Giannis” on the Celtics, they are a much smaller, quicker, more shooting-oriented team with more than one or two massive scoring options, particularly if Hayward is available. Bam will certainly be a defensive force to be reckoned with, but it is not as clear who he will seek to neutralize to create value for Miami in this series, as Boston will try and avoid him at all costs when they run their offense. 

On the other hand, and back on the Boston side of things, we know exactly what Jaylen Brown’s role will be. He’s going to have the daunting task of slowing Butler, one that even Giannis, the Defensive Player of the Year, didn’t even want or think to attempt. But he’s shown that he’s up to the challenge, as he was a defensive stud in the Toronto series, locking down Raps All-Star Pascal Siakam to the point where people were wondering if Kawhi’s heir apparent was capable of performing at a championship level. Butler is a totally different player of course, but physically, Brown is up to just about every challenge you can throw at him on defense. He was also a key shot creator for Boston, after a regular season where he quietly averaged over 20 points per game, when some of the other usual scorers went cold during the Toronto matchups. Conversely, Brown himself has proven to be susceptible to abhorrent slumps from beyond the arc, which he will need to avoid, as the Celtics will certainly be in need of his catch-and-shoot ability in their attempts to take advantage of any chinks in Miami’s defensive armor. 

Miami’s Role Players

Beyond all of that top-end talent on both squads, there are a few more key contributors on both sides that will have a legitimate role in determining this series’s outcome. For the Heat, it’s an embarrassment of riches in terms of long-range snipers, as they feature a ridiculous three playoff contributors who shot over 40% on three-pointers for Miami this season- and that doesn’t even include rookie sharpshooter Tyler Herro who fell just short of the 40% mark, at 38.9%. These three are Duncan Robinson (44.6% on 8.3 attempts per game), Jae Crowder (44.5%, 6.4) and Kelly Olynyk (40.6, 3.5). Weirdly enough, Crowder and Olynyk were both members of the mid-2010’s Celtics, but they find themselves on the other side of this matchup after Olynyk’s move directly to Miami, and Crowder bouncing around the league for some time before heading to South Beach. While both were legitimate contributors in Boston- who could forget Kelly’s game 7 against the Wizards- neither thrived offensively in the way they have in Miami. 

Amazingly, Robinson might somehow have an even more bizarre story. Just one of two Division-III players to ever make it to the NBA, he originally played his college ball at Williams College, before transferring to the University of Michigan, where he served as the team’s sixth man, essentially a highly effective bench shooter, en route to an appearance in the 2018 Final Four. After going undrafted, he found himself in Miami, and the rest, as they say, is history- he has become one of the league’s most lethal shooters from downtown. This season, he became the first shooter to hit over 45% of his catch-and-shoot threes in a year while taking over 500 such attempts. If there had been 82 games this season, as per the usual, Duncan’s league-high 270 threes had him on pace for somewhere between 295 and 305 threes made, good enough for either the fifth or sixth highest total of all time, as well as the highest total accrued by anyone other than Steph Curry or James Harden. Absolutely ridiculous, and he’s not even Miami’s only elite-level sniper.

As I mentioned a bit earlier, shooting the three has proven to be one of the best ways to compete with this Celtics team, and this trio of snipers- not to mention Herro, the Kentucky product who hit so many daggers against the Bucks- makes that a very, very viable route to victory for Miami. All of that having been said, the Celtics boast an all-time great three-point defense- Boston’s defense has been no worse than sixth in the NBA in limiting opponent three point percentage in each year over the past decade. Specifically this season, they were second in that category, only allowing 34% of opponent threes to hit, and in these playoffs, that figure has been 29.2%, despite an overall increase in league shooting percentage in the bubble. Additionally, it remains to be seen if lineups featuring both Herro and Robinson at the same time have the defensive ability to be playable when three or more of the Celtics’ top scorers are on the floor. For the Heat, who had the second-highest 3pt% this year, it will be the case of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object; something has to give, and seeing which side can buck the other’s trend will be key in crowning an Eastern Conference Champion. 

Boston’s Role Players

While the Celtics don’t have a flashy, high-flying bench like the Heat, there are still a few more players who are going to be seeing some big minutes this series. Daniel Theis, of course, will be starting at center in the Celts’ relatively small lineup. Theis’ off-ball movement has been key in creating open looks and alley-oops when some of the team’s primary scoring threats have been clamped down on. He is reasonably able to shoot open looks from most spots on the floor, and has been a key defender against opposing bigs, although he has proven somewhat prone to fouls. Which brings us to Boston’s need for a solid backup plan for when he gets in foul trouble, as was often the case against Toronto (he actually fouled out in game 7). Enter the Williamses, Robert III and Grant. Grant, a rookie out of Tennessee, has been getting solid minutes all season, even contributing in the fourth quarter of game 7 against the Raptors after Theis exited the game. He drew a clutch foul, bricked both free throws, and then ultimately stifled Fred Van Vleet’s final attempt to bring the Raps back into the ballgame.

An alternative option is Robert Williams, nicknamed “Time Lord” by the Celtics faithful, namely for his ability to bend space and time, seemingly always resulting in him being in the right place at the right time. While he wasn’t a huge factor in the first round against Philadelphia, he saw significant minutes in the Conference Semifinals, throwing down vicious dunk after vicious dunk, and holding his own on the defensive end. He is a big, long presence unlike any other on the Celtics (other than Tacko Fall, I guess) and the fact that he has proven to Brad Stevens that he can be trusted with important minutes could end up being vital during the matchup with a very physical Miami team; his ability to score the ball inside could be something that Boston’s mastermind coach could turn to when other options begin to stagnate, and his length could be extremely valuable in containing Adebayo. Along with Theis, either member of the Williams duo could plausibly be tasked with running with Adebayo or Butler for long stretches of this series; these matchups would be ones to pay close attention to. If the Celtics youngsters aren’t able to at least limit the Heat’s power duo during their minutes on the court, it may cause damage that the starting 5 are not able to negate.

There is one X-factor that has the ability to turn this series from a tough matchup between two scrappy underdogs, into a comfortable win for Boston. That would be the potential return of their fourth (!!!) near-elite-or-better scorer in Gordon Hayward. Three years removed from an All-Star campaign in Utah, and two removed from a horrific, season-ending opening day ankle injury, Hayward has been able to thrive away from the spotlight this year, putting up a very respectable and efficient line of 17.5 / 6.5 / 4.5, either serving as a sixth man or sliding into the lineup and allowing Marcus Smart to fill that role. He is able to be much more than a high-teens scorer, however, and he has consistently shown that when the Celtics have had other key players on the shelf with injuries, or simply mired in a cold stretch. The need for Hayward has never been more apparent than when Jaylen Brown went to the floor with what looked like a serious injury late in game 7 against the Raps. When everyone’s healthy, Hayward provides Boston with yet another lethal option, allowing them to have a high-ability scoring wing on the floor for essentially all 48 minutes of the game while still giving everyone ample rest. When someone gets hurt, Hayward becomes even more valuable, as a high-level insurance policy for Tatum and Brown. If he is healthy enough to be himself and play a significant role, it is extremely hard to see how Boston would be eliminated in this series, or even the next.

It’s not often that a sixth man has a case to be the most important player on a team- especially a playoff team with multiple All-Stars, including a budding top-ten player. But that’s exactly the truth for Marcus Smart, who doesn’t start on the rare occasion that all of the Celtics are healthy. Nonetheless, the team would be completely lost without Smart, their do-it-all backup guard, and the longest-tenured Shamrock. A First-Team All-Defensive selection this season, Smart is able to viably guard almost any player in the league of any position, and is constantly making the high-effort plays that can make or break a close game. This season, he has significantly improved on the offensive end, finally justifying the volume of three-pointers he takes, as his clutch scoring ability has been key in more than one major Celtics victories this year, especially during the Raptor series. His stellar playmaking has also been key over the stretches when Kemba has been either injured, or simply taking some minutes off. It’s more than fair to say that the Celtics would not have secured the third seed, or gotten through Toronto, without their veteran leader, and they will need him to continue to be at his best if they hope to secure their 18th NBA title this season.

The Matchup

This series is one rife with tantalizing narratives, and contrasting styles and trends. Other than Miami’s shocking three-point offense, and Boston’s stifling three-point defense, which I’ve already discussed, the teams also are on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of free throws. The Celtics allowed the seventh-most opponent free throw attempts per opponent field goal attempt, whereas the Heat were the best team in basketball at getting to the line, as measured by the same metric. This could spell trouble for Boston, and already has, as the Heat have twice shot 30+ free throws against the Celtics in matchups this year, resulting in a win for each team between the two contests. Letting Miami live at the line, while simultaneously seeing numerous players approach foul trouble, could create some very uncomfortable situations for the Celts, especially if Hayward is not available to provide extra depth. The Celtics also did not win a single third quarter in their entire series against Toronto, something that seems like a trivial trend, but if two of the games had not been Boston blowouts from the beginning, we would be talking about it a whole lot more. If the Heat are able to jump ahead early, the Celtics have not shown that they would have much of an ability to fight back early in the second half. 

While it’s been eight years since the Celtics’ and Heat’s big threes clashed for a spot in the NBA Finals, there is absolutely no love lost between the two franchises. The rosters may be different, but the intensity is the same, as each team’s new stars have carried the torch from their predecessors. The animosity starts all the way at the top, with legendary executives Pat Riley of Miami, and Boston’s Danny Ainge, two men who have had a rivalry since Ainge’s playing days, when his Celtics often clashed with the Riley-coached Lakers in big spots, and it has extended into their front office careers, as the two have competed for everything from free agents to Eastern Conference titles. Neither of these teams were supposed to be here, and both know that they have to take advantage of this opportunity to seize the East. This is more than a series, it is the chance to parlay what is already a nice run into Eastern dominance, which really has yet to be asserted by any team even two years after King James moved West. Each team has a simple path to victory, and they’re pretty similar- hit threes and get to the line, and don’t let your opponent do either. But there are still endless permutations of how this could turn out, and I’m thrilled to watch the most wide-open Conference Finals in years- the first Eastern Finals in modern history that features neither a #1 or #2 seed. FiveThirtyEight gives the Celtics a 75% chance to advance- and a 54% likelihood of winning it all- and my final verdict is similar; Celtics in 6. Boston’s star-power, versatility, and playoff pedigree will be too much for the Heat to overcome, but don’t tell them that. They’re going to go all-out, and make sure we get one hell of a series.

The Eastern Conference Finals kick off Tuesday Night, as the 5-seed Heat “visit” the 3-seed Celtics.