Creighton - This Year’s National Title Dark Horse
With March Madness just around the corner, the national title race is taking shape with three clear favorites. The defending champions, UConn, are joined by Houston and Purdue as the top contenders in this year’s bracket, all with consensus title odds of +750 or better. However, I believe there’s value in backing Creighton, UConn’s Big East compatriot, with a +3000 price currently available at BetRivers and PointsBet. Let’s break down why the Bluejays can be this season’s national championship dark horse.
Last season’s tragic ending
Head coach Greg McDermott arrived at Creighton in 2010 and has led the Bluejays to a tournament berth in nine of his 14 seasons at the helm. McDermott reached his career 600th coaching win this season, and he’s looking to build on the success last season’s team found.
Last year, the Bluejays reached the Elite Eight for the first time since 1941 with three convincing wins, all by 9+ points. In the Elite Eight, they faced a streaking San Diego State team, and late-game variance went tragically wrong.
After a back-and-forth game, Baylor Scheierman picked off an Aztec in-bounds pass on the baseline, laying it in to tie the game at 56. Then, former guard Ryan Nembhard fouled the Aztecs’ Darion Trammell with 1.2 seconds left on the clock, where he would sink the game-winning free throw.
My take—it’s a foul. In the image below, you can see Nembhard hook Trammell's waist, and while it’s unfortunate that the game ended on a whistle, it was clearly enough to alter the shot. The Bluejays were left with a lot of “what ifs” after this game as the Aztecs would advance to the national title game.
Ryan Nembhard is called for the foul against San Diego State’s Darrion Trammell in the Elite Eight of the 2023 NCAA Tournament
Creighton’s Veteran Squad Reloads
The Bluejays had plenty of time to stew about that loss over the offseason, and they returned a highly talented core of players led by seniors Ryan Kalkbrenner and Baylor Scheierman. Kalkbrenner ranks third in the country in offensive rating per KenPom, averaging 17.2 points per game on a tremendous 65.2% shooting clip.
Scheierman has also been dominant, leading the team with 18.5 points and 8.9 rebounds per game. He also became the first Creighton player in program history to record a triple-double of points, rebounds, and assists earlier this season against Georgetown.
Trey Alexander is another potent scoring guard who has continued to evolve in his junior season, while Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth has provided another veteran presence at guard. Ashworth led the team with 20 points in their huge upset win over UConn this season.
Overall, the Bluejays have a lot going for them as contenders. They rank sixth in effective height per KenPom, meaning they won’t be overmatched even if they face Purdue’s Zach Edey or UConn’s Donovan Clingan in the tournament. They also rank top 40 in experience and continuity per KenPom - this is a veteran group that has played a ton of games together, and three starters returned from last season’s Elite Eight team.
Ryan Kalkbrenner scores while being guarded by UConn’s Donovan Clingan
The advanced numbers - Offense
Creighton’s offense is relentlessly efficient, scoring 1.036 points per possession (PPP) in the half-court per Synergy, which ranks sixth in the country. Kalkbrenner is an elite interior scorer, and the Bluejays rank third in the country in PPP in post-up sets. With the 7’1” center demanding defensive attention on the interior, Creighton’s shooters are freed up to find open space on the perimeter.
Creighton ranks seventh in the country in 3-point attempt rate, constantly looking for opportunities from deep. They run a ton of screens and handoffs on the perimeter, and you never know who will be taking the shot, as everyone getting major minutes on this roster aside from Kalkbrenner is a very capable 3-point shooter.
The Bluejays rank 20th in the country in the rate of unguarded jumpers per Synergy and are the second-best offense on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers per ShotQuality. However, this team has counters if those 3-pointers aren’t falling—even the best offenses can be subject to cold spells from deep.
Steven Ashworth brings a different element to the Creighton offense as a highly efficient pick-and-roll ball-handler. His presence has boosted the Bluejays from 28th in pick-and-roll efficiency last year to 4th this year per ShotQuality. Scheierman is also very capable in that respect, and he’s an elite scorer at all three levels.
The advanced numbers - Defense
Kalkbrenner is also the lynchpin of the Creighton defense, absolutely erasing shots at the rim. The Bluejays run their “KalkDrop defense” in which Kalkbrenner plays close to the basket, forcing opposing teams running ball screen actions to settle for analytically inefficient mid-range jump shots. The Bluejays face the 8th-most mid-range shots in the country per ShotQuality, and that’s by design - they rank 320th in shots faced at the rim.
Per Synergy, the Bluejays rank in the 94th percentile in defending the rim while, and Kalkbrenner is the biggest reason why, with his 3.0 blocks per game. Crucially, Kalkbrenner averages just 1.8 personal fouls per game, which allows him to stay on the court, unlike some of the other elite shot blockers in the college basketball landscape. Watch how he rotates on this screen, defends at the rim, and avoids the foul.
Overall, the Bluejays average just 11.4 personal fouls per game, by far the fewest in the country. Opponents attempt just 10.8 free throws per game against Creighton, nearly two fewer than the second-ranked team in that metric. Simply put, the Bluejays never send their opponents to the foul line, forcing them to score on a defense that ranks 18th in half-court efficiency per ShotQuality.
Creighton also boasts an elite on-ball defender in Scheierman. He’s allowing just 0.719 PPP this season, which ranks 20th out of 452 defenders with 8+ possessions per game. He’s also allowing an eFG% of just 36.3%, which ranks 11th. He’ll be tasked with defending the opposing team’s best scorer in the tournament, and he’s proven this season to be up to the challenge.
KenPom Historical Context
Since Ken Pomeroy first posted his model in 2002, every national championship winner has been top 40 in adjusted offensive efficiency and top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency. However, in 2014, an outlier UConn team won the title as a seven-seed. That Huskies team is the only one that hasn’t been top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency, so let’s focus on that as a barometer. Nine teams currently fit the billing, and I’m sorting them by consensus national championship odds here:
Connecticut +500
Houston +700
Purdue +750
Arizona +1200
Tennessee +1200
Auburn +2200
Duke +2300
Marquette +2500
Creighton +2800
The Bluejays are the lowest-priced team of that group and even find themselves behind teams like Kentucky (93rd adjusted defensive efficiency) and Iowa State (63rd adjusted offensive efficiency) with obvious flaws on one end of the court. Creighton ranks 11th in KenPom’s overall efficiency metrics, landing 12th on offense and 24th on defense.
Conclusion
Most people have a singular idea of this Creighton team. They’re a sharp-shooting group with plenty of panache, but they can run into trouble if their 3s aren’t falling. That latter aspect is true of almost any team these days - 3-point variance can be a real pain in the backside. But Creighton has found counters to that problem with Ashworth’s pick-and-roll brilliance, Kalkbrenner’s post-up scoring, and Scheierman’s continued evolution.
The Bluejays also have a defensive formula that wins in March. Creighton smothers opponents at the rim, rarely commits fouls, and features an elite on-ball defender in Scheierman who can match up with guards and forwards.
McDermott’s team proved its pedigree with its blowout win over #1 ranked UConn in February, and Creighton has the chops to make a deep run in the tournament. I’m buying the Bluejays to cut down the nets at 30-1, a number I believe to be a significant discount based on what we’ve seen from Creighton all season.
