College Basketball Best Bets - 3/6/24 Slate
As we inch closer to March Madness, the regular season still has some big matchups to offer. In the Big East, there are two huge games on Wednesday night that have significant postseason implications. In this article, I’ll break down both Villanova at Seton Hall and Connecticut at Marquette and provide a best bet for each game.
Villanova at Seton Hall
Villanova’s road win over Providence on Saturday might have been the biggest of the Kyle Neptune era. After a five-game losing streak in January, it looked like it was time to stick a fork in the Wildcats. However, Neptune’s team has gone 6-2 since the start of February and ranks 8th in the country in Bart Torvik’s T-Rank over that span. In particular, the Wildcats have been playing some of the most suffocating defense in the country - they rank 2nd in efficiency on that end since the beginning of February and UConn is the only team to crack over 62 points against them.
That stifling defense already smothered Seton Hall once this season, holding the Pirates to 54 points on 40% shooting and 30% from 3-point range. The Pirates had more turnovers (15) than assists (10) in that game, and turnovers have been an issue for them all season as they rank 290th in turnover rate. Kadary Richmond had six of those turnovers, and if he isn’t at his best, the Pirates’ offense can be quite one-dimensional, ranking well below average in half-court efficiency per Synergy.
The Wildcats’ offense, meanwhile, arguably looked the best it has all season in their win over Providence. Villanova averaged 1.145 points per possession (PPP), which would make them the 2nd-most efficient offense in the country over the full season behind only Alabama. After missing over a month with an injury earlier this season, senior Justin Moore appears to be back to full health as he’s averaged 11.8 points on 48.8% shooting over his last five games.
Villanova shot 14-30 (46.7%) from 3 in their win over Seton Hall earlier this season. You can argue there’s some looming regression there, but the Pirates have struggled to run opponents off the three-point line all season, ranking 320th in opponents’ 3-point attempt rate. The Wildcats rank 19th in 3-point rate on offense and have three players shooting 34% or better from deep, not including Moore who has been red hot as of late.
It’s unfair to criticize Seton Hall too heavily for last week’s results as road games against Creighton and UConn aren’t anyone’s idea of a good time, but I still believe Villanova has been in much better form as of late. While the Wildcats likely won’t shoot nearly 47% from deep in this matchup like they did in these teams’ prior meeting, they own distinct edges on both ends of the court and I’m betting on them picking up another big road win as they solidify their at-large bid in the tournament.
Connecticut at Marquette
Let’s start by addressing the elephant in the room - UConn absolutely pasted Marquette earlier this season, winning 81-53 on their home floor. The Golden Eagles shot just 21.7% from 3 and got outrebounded 45-27. The Huskies had four different players score in double figures. It was a complete drubbing, but I expect this rematch to look quite different.
Marquette will be without Tyler Kolek for the remainder of the regular season and perhaps beyond that point, but I believe the market has over-adjusted to his absence. Kolek leads the team with a 26.2% usage rate and his 41.1% assist rate ranks fifth in the country. However, UConn completely stymied him earlier this season as Kolek shot 2-11 from the field and had more turnovers (4) than assists (3).
While Kolek is the lynchpin of the Marquette offense, the Golden Eagles have plenty of depth, and I was impressed with their effort in an eventual loss to Creighton on Saturday. Marquette kept the game close throughout and was within 2 points with 5:15 left before Creighton took over late. Kam Jones and David Joplin both finished with 20+ points in the game.
The expected return of Oso Ighodaro will also be significant after he missed the loss to Creighton with the flu. He’s Marquette’s third-highest usage player and has the highest offensive rating on the team. Ighodaro was one of the team’s only productive players in that prior matchup, finishing with 14 points on 7-12 shooting.
The average line for this game across KenPom, Haslam, and Bart Torvik would be UConn -1.4. With the market shifting to UConn -5, that’s an approximate value of 3.6 points for Kolek. It’s rare to have a player who is worth more than 2 points to a spread in college basketball, and while Kolek means a ton to the Golden Eagles, it’s difficult for me to get to that number.
The absence of Kolek might benefit Marquette in some ways in this matchup by making the Golden Eagles more difficult to gameplan for. I expect Shaka Smart to have a brilliant game plan here on both sides of the court. After all, he is the underdog king when it comes to covering spreads. Smart has gone 97-61-3 ATS (60%) as an underdog in his coaching career. Since arriving at Marquette, he’s 21-10-3 ATS (62%) and 6-2 ATS (75%) at home.
On Marquette’s senior night, I’m expecting a raucous crowd in Milwaukee to help the Golden Eagles bounce back from Saturday’s loss to Creighton. I’ll happily back Shaka Smart as an underdog in this spot against a UConn team that hasn’t won a road game against a team in the AP Top 25 in a decade.
