Week One Overreactions From Every NFL Game
By Schwartz
Well that was quite the start! Opening weekend had everything we could have asked for and more. Strong debuts, offensive fireworks, stunning upsets, and standout performances from familiar stars. But with the action, and the surprises, there will always be some way-too-soon conclusions being drawn, the classic Week 1 overreactions. Let’s take a look some of the takes that have arisen from the Week 1 games, and try and separate the fact from the fiction.
This article will feature the debut of the Overreaction Meter, which will measure each take on a scale from 1-10, where a 1 is 100% true, not an overreaction at all, and a 10 is absolutely wrong, a huge overreaction.
Texans @ CHiefs (Thursday)
Overreaction: Deshaun Watson has made a grave mistake by signing a long-term deal in Houston
Overreaction Meter: 3
In reality: ...well unfortunately, our first overreaction might not be much of an overreaction at all. Rather than opting to test free agency as one of the biggest prizes to ever hit the open market, Watson took the sure payday. However, all the Texans did this offseason was get worse, and their supposedly-improved offensive line allowed Deshaun to be sacked four times on opening night, and never allowed him to really get comfortable in the backfield. It might be ruinous to Watson’s health and legacy if he does stay in Houston for the duration of his prime, as he currently seems poised to do; the sad fact it that this organization does not look like it is going to be able to maximize Watson’s tremendous talent and compete for championships.
Seahawks @ Falcons
Overreaction: Russell Wilson is unbelievable, he’s going to do this every week and win MVP.
Overreaction Meter: 4
In reality: This one has some truth to it too. Obviously, Russ isn’t going to light opposing defenses up to this extent every week- 31/35 for 322 yards, 4 scores and no turnovers en route to a 143.1 passer rating- and he isn’t going to be the Hawks’ leading rusher each game either (hopefully). But he really is unbelievable, and this year, his statistical production might actually reflect that. Seattle seems to have finally realized that running the ball for three quarters, falling behind after a bunch of stagnant offense, finally unleashing Russ for the fourth quarter and watching him frantically try and complete a surgical comeback isn’t the way to go. On Sunday, they actually let Wilson do his thing right from the first quarter, opening up the playbook and letting him improvise with both his legs and his arm, and the results were spectacular. Look for more of the “feed Russ” mentality this season as the Seahawks get deeper into their schedule, and if he continues to play at such a high level, his (long overdue) first MVP might finally be in order.
Jets @ Bills
Overreaction: This Bills offense is a juggernaut! They looked unstoppable at times yesterday
Overreaction Meter: 8
In reality: The Bills do have a more talented offensive group than they have in years past, but they’re far from a league-best unit. They victimized a Jets defense that was clearly unprepared after late-offseason losses of their best two players, Middle Linebacker CJ Mosley (COVID opt-out) and superstar do-it-all Strong Safety Jamal Adams (trade to Seattle). Josh Allen, in particular, was deceivingly impressive. While it’s true that he can do special things while rushing the ball, his arm is still not NFL-caliber and although the statistics were impressive, he often failed the eye test when throwing the ball, even in a dominant win. The Bills offense looked great on Sunday, but this is still a team that is likely to go as far as their defense can take them.
Bears @ Lions
Overreaction: MITCH TRUBISKY IS THE TRUTH!!!
Overreaction Meter: 9
In reality: Woah, woah, let’s slow down. Although he strung together one of his most impressive statistical performances as a Bear, and a fourth quarter to remember en route to a fantastic comeback, he still looked very much like Mitch Trubisky for the first 45 minutes of game time. He made a handful of impressive throws, such as the A+ dime he tossed to Anthony Miller to put the Bears ahead for good, but he’s still largely the same QB as a year ago. While he has certainly bought himself some time with his late-game heroics, with Nick Foles looming on the sidelines, Mitch is far from proving that he can be a long-term guy for Chicago. It’s also worth noting that if D’Andre Swift snagged Stafford’s perfectly-thrown potential game-winning throw, the Bears’ furious fight back would have been entirely for naught, and much more focus would be on Mitch’s shortcomings over the first three quarters of football. That being said, both of these teams showed high potential at different times in this game, and provided us with one of the best contests of week 1. Don’t be surprised to see either of them win the wide-open NFC North division this season.
Packers @ Vikings
Overreaction: Wow, neither of these teams play ANY defense.
Overreaction Meter: 5
In reality: They kind of don’t. The Packers were one of the most deceiving 13-3 teams in league history last year, and one of the biggest frauds of all was the idea that they had a passable defense. The fact was that they were statistically very lucky, and the team way outperformed their pythagorean wins projection, particularly in terms of allowing a ton of yards and not nearly as many points. Call it bend-not-break defense if you want, but I don’t buy it; Matt LaFleur is not Bill Belichick, this team got lucky. On the Minnesota side, this was a solid defense a year ago, but the loss of Everson Griffen and the team’s three top corners from 2019 are nothing short of devastating. This is a better unit than Green Bay’s, despite losing Sunday’s contest, but they probably will not achieve to the same level they did last year, when they held opponents to just 18.9 points per game.
Dolphins @ Patriots
Overreaction: The Patriots upgraded at Quarterback.
Overreaction Meter: 8
In reality: Come on. Let’s be very clear- Cam Newton was extremely impressive in his non-Carolina NFL debut, and showed that he is absolutely healthy enough to alter the game with his unique physical ability. However, he is a far cry from proving that he is better than even the 2019 version of Tom Brady, who dragged an aggressively mediocre Pats team to a 12-4 finish a year ago. Brady is far from washed- I’ll get to that later- and he wasn’t nearly the main reason for the team’s offensive struggles last season. It’s also important to remember that Cam’s much-lauded opening performance came against a dismal Miami Dolphins defense that struggled to integrate a number of new pieces, as they mostly looked like the unit that allowed the third-most yards and the most points in the league a year ago. That being said, Cam’s new-look Pats offense still only hung 21 points on them, as New England’s comfortable win was more due to Ryan Fitzpatrick’s red zone failures more than anything their own offense did. As soon as the Patriots play a team who has any ability to slow Newton on the ground, the one-dimensional nature of their offense will be painfully clear to the New England faithful. While Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels will certainly open up the playbook as the year goes on, this has all the indications of being a team that lives and dies by the run, and will be comfortable as long as they can set the tone but struggle if they fall behind (see: 2019 Ravens, 2019 Titans, but less talented). Cam wasn’t really asked to throw the ball downfield, as he only attempted 19 throws for a total of 155 air yards. It was certainly an encouraging start to the post-Brady era, but as a Patriots fan, I am nervously holding my breath more than planning our seventh Super Bowl parade.
Eagles @ Washington Football Team
Overreaction: The Eagles are pretty rough/The Washington Football Team is pretty solid
Overreaction Meter: 4/7
Reality: Hail to the Washington Football Team! There’s a bit of truth to each of these statements, albeit different degrees of accuracy between the two. On one hand, the Eagles are definitely not a good football team. Carson Wentz was dismal in the loss, throwing two picks against a very young team en route to a total QBR of 14.2, and his line did him no favors either, allowing him to get sacked a shocking eight times and not doing anything to really establish the run. The theoretically-strong Philly defense was also very concerning, as they allowed Insane Dwayne and co. to rack up 27 consecutive points to end the game. But as the line gets healthier, and the season goes on, Philly will begin to get better results for sure- just don’t expect them to win the East or come anywhere near a Wild Card spot. Washington, however, showed some very promising stuff in Ron Rivera’s team debut. Namely those 8 sacks- while they won’t rack up quite this many every week, Riverboat Ron’s defense is going to hit the QB all game long. It was particularly exciting to see rookie end Chase Young secure his first 1.5 NFL sacks, and fellow youngster Montez Sweat record a QB takedown of his own, as well as another tackle for loss. This team, although they shockingly sit atop the NFC East, are no sort of playoff contender, but they should be excited about their future after a very strong defensive start to the Ron Rivera era.
Raiders @ Panthers
Overreaction: The Panthers are going to waste Christian McCaffrey
Overreaction Meter: 1
Reality: It’s really hard to disagree with this one. As big of a fan as I am of CMC, handing out such a large deal to a halfback is never a sound investment. While I had hoped that Carolina would minimize McCaffrey’s mileage after investing in him long-term, he actually had six more carries and two more touches than his averages a year ago. They’ve also shown no ability to parlay his most explosive performances into wins, starting in 2018, when his blistering breakout stretch actually coincided with a brutal Carolina losing streak, and of course continuing into last season when his historic 100 catch/1000 rushing yard/1000 receiving yard season resulted in a 5-11, fourth-place finish. Giving a monster deal to a do-it-all offensive weapon who might not have a long prime is something you do if you’re ready to win now. While new QB Teddy Bridgewater looked solid, the Panthers are completely unable to win even when McCaffrey is his usual, hyper-effective self as he was on Sunday as Carolina fell to a very mediocre Las Vegas team. The super-young defense is not quite there yet and if the Panthers are going to make their investment look like a good one, they will have to turn things around extremely quickly.
Colts @ Jaguars
Overreaction: Gardner Minshew is the best quarterback alive
Overreaction Meter: 10, but if you read between the lines of the take, more like a 5
In reality: I see no lies here.
No, just kidding, as much as I would love for this to be true, and as many times as I said this on Sunday, the King of Florida still has a long way to go in proving that he is a legitimate NFL superstar. But jokes aside, let’s just make the real take, the one that garnered a 5 rather than a 10 on the Overreaction Meter, “Gardner Minshew is a top-level NFL starting QB.” If that’s the scope, it’s much more reasonable- after he produced a historically-efficient opener and lifted the Jags, a squad that was expected to be among the league’s worst, to victory over a likely playoff-bound Indy squad. Anyone who watched that performance can see that Minshew is able to make the plays that his team needs him to make for them to win games. His passes were pinpoint, his poise veteran-level, and his clutch ability absolutely on display. Obviously, there’s a lot of Week 1, post-pandemic flukiness in the Jaguars beating the Colts, this is still not a great team and are unfortunately not likely to be gracing our screens with more electric late-game heroics come playoff time. Gardner is going to throw more than one incompletion per week, and will not be finishing the season with a video game-level passer rating of 142. If the Jags do snag the top pick, Minshew might still lose his job to Trevor Lawrence, but he and the Jags’ talented and thrilling wideout group showed that they might be able to keep Jacksonville away from the bottom of the NFL.
Browns @ Ravens
Overreaction: Well, that’s it, time to close the book on Baker Mayfield.
Overreaction Meter: 5
In reality: This was definitely not a good start to what many see as Mayfield’s last stand to defend the Browns’ decision to make him the first overall pick in the 2018 draft. Yet another tipped-ball interception on Cleveland’s opening drive was an absolute crusher, as their only real hope in this game was to set the tone and force Baltimore to play from behind the entire game and make Lamar Jackson throw the ball 30, 40, 50 times, as the Titans did in last year’s playoffs. But it’s not time to call it a day yet on the polarizing passer. Cleveland is a team full of new pieces, including a new head coach, and after an abbreviated offseason, they might need time to gel. Baker has put himself in a serious hole, but let’s see how he performs against any defense other than the one that just might be the NFL’s most talented, especially after their already-potent 2019 unit added Calais Campbell, Derek Wolfe, and highly impressive rookie LB Patrick Queen. And let’s not pretend that anyone else on the Browns was particularly impressive in a 38-6 loss. Let’s see what he and the rest of the Browns can do on Thursday night as they take on fellow Heisman winner Joe Burrow and his Bengals.
Chargers @ Bengals
Overreaction: The Bengals are on a one-way path to a second consecutive first overall pick.
Overreaction Meter: 6
In reality: The Bengals showed a lot of good things on Sunday against a generally-mediocre but fairly talented Chargers squad. Rookie QB Joe Burrow, making his pro debut, struggled at times in the passing game against a stout Chargers defense, but created plenty of value with his legs, and finally put it all together on a fantastic final drive, which of course ended in a short, shanked game-tying field goal attempt as time expired. Cincy’s defense also showed up in a big way, bending and not breaking by limiting Tyrod Taylor and co. to just one touchdown on offense, and allowed them to convert just 6 out of 16 third down opportunities. This team is certainly a candidate to be the league’s worst, as the offense largely sputtered, and they are going to need simple things like short field goals to be automatic if they are going to steal the few close games they play in, but they aren’t a lock to be at the bottom again, as they displayed a number of positive trends in their season opener, even after an abbreviated offseason program.
Buccaneers @ Saints
Overreaction: Tom Brady is done!
Overreaction Meter: 8
In reality: Wait, is this 2014? Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. We’ve been hearing this for years now- after his ACL tear, after a number of early-season blowouts, and after an unceremonious end to his New England reign. But Tom Brady is certainly not done, even after a fairly brutal opener to his Tampa Bay tenure. A more valid concern might be that without a full offseason, the first chapter of the “Tompa Bay” experience might have always been doomed. Without a preseason to get comfortable, rookie right tackle Tristan Wirfs looked overwhelmed (against Cameron Jordan, to be fair, but still) and newcomer Donovan Smith, on the left side, looked simply overmatched. Brady’s first pick was the clear product of miscommunication between a QB and his Wideout, a concerning play in the micro, but one that likely gets smoothed out over the course of a season. Mike Evans also looked awful, he was completely unable to find space all day long, but he might deserve a free pass due to his questionable level of health. Still, the important positive takeaway is that Brady’s arm seems to be completely fine at age 43, he has plenty left in the tank and was shaky at times, but more than able to accurately throw the ball downfield. He completed a couple of tough throws, including a beauty over multiple defenders off of his back foot, and created off-the-stat sheet value with two gorgeous throws that resulted in long Pass Interference calls against New Orleans. It’s also important to keep perspective; this Saints team is one of the NFL’s best and while they are the kind of squad the Bucs will need to beat in order to achieve their highest goals, they were certainly a brutal first test for a group that has hardly played together.
Cardinals @ Niners
Overreaction: The DeAndre Hopkins trade was an all-time highway robbery
Overreaction Meter: 3
In reality: You thought I was only going to rip on the Texans in their own segment? Ah, come on, they’re too inept to be contained like that. All offseason, skeptics said that the Cardinals hype train was out of control- one wideout, as good as he is, can’t transform a team overnight. Well, I’ve got news for you, he might be able to. After just one game, Hopkins has shown his value as Kyler Murray leaned on him against a tough Niners defense, to the tune of 14 catches on 16 targets en route to 151 yards and a big opening day upset win. The Cardinals obviously won’t be riding the veteran receiver to 16-0, and there will be weeks where he isn’t able to make a game-breaking impact. But he has shown that he has the ability to take over games, and change the course of Arizona’s season, and that is worth far more than what they had to send over to the Texans.
Cowboys @ Rams
Overreaction: The Cowboys offense is going to let us down after an offseason of hype.
Overreaction Meter: 7
In reality: It was an ugly start for the Dallas attack, but perhaps not quite as ugly as the scoreline would indicate. For instance, they put together 380 yards of team offense, well above league average, which resulted in 17 points, well below league average. This indicates red zone struggles, and it’s seriously challenging to expect that to continue, especially with Ezekiel Elliott looking so in-form in a dominant opener. A year ago, the Niners actually scored 30 points per game on the exact same average yardage output behind a strong rushing performance, which is a very promising indicator that the Cowboys will be able to do the same, especially since the passing game will probably get into a better rhythm as Coach Mike McCarthy and high-talent rookie CeeDee Lamb settle into their new roles in Dallas. We’re also talking about an offense that racked up the most yards in the league last year, and only got more talented, so there shouldn’t be much to be concerned about. The only response is to tip your hat to a brilliant coaching job from Sean McVay, who helped to ensure that his Rams held onto the ball for over ten minutes more than Dallas, a great debut performance from Defensive Coordinator Brandon Staley, and some superstar efforts from Jalen Ramsey and the always-dominant Aaron Donald.
Steelers @ Giants
Overreaction: The Giants are the worst team in all the land
Overreaction Meter: 3
In reality: Well, I’m not sure that it was a surprise that the Giants would look so overmatched. It’s just shocking how competent some of the other candidates for the #1 pick looked in their first outing of the year. The Jaguars beat the Colts, the Washington Football Team knocked off the Eagles, and the former LSU Joes, Brady and Burrow, seemed to have an immediate impact in their new homes (Carolina and Cincinnati, respectively) Meanwhile, the Giants, who were inexplicably given a primetime, Monday Night slot against the playoff-bound Steelers, hardly looked better than anyone expected. Their dismal defense got relatively shredded by a somewhat-healthy Big Ben and a shaky Steelers skill group, to the tune of three touchdowns through the air. The promising young offense sputtered under the pressure of a crushing Pittsburgh D, as Daniel Jones had a couple of ugly turnovers, and Saquon Barkley was absolutely stifled beyond the line of scrimmage, racking up 6 rushing yards on 15 carries. To be fair, Jones made a handful of nice throws, and Barkley had some nice production in the receiving game. Still, neither showed any progress from a year ago as both were back to their 2019 ways, flashing the exact same promise and exhibiting the exact same reasons for concern. More importantly, the Giants went completely silent after racing out to a 10-3 lead, getting completely dominated on both sides of the ball- the Steelers put up 23 unanswered points following Jones’s bomb to Darius Slayton, not conceding again until a garbage-time touchdown for the Giants. This team is going to lose a ton of games by being dominated at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Honestly, I’m not even confident of their chances against the other cellar dwellers in their own division, the Eagles and the Football Team. The Jets and maybe the Dolphins are the only teams I would say are currently on the same level as the G-men, keeping this overreaction from scoring a perfect 1 on the scale as a true prophecy- but those two play each other and someone has to win each game. It’s a brutal time for the Big Blue, who, if they secure the top pick, will have to decide just how much they believe in Daniel Jones, or if it’s time to go in a new direction, presumably with Trevor Lawrence.
Titans @ Broncos
Overreaction: The Broncos got too much love this offseason
Overreaction Meter: 8
In reality: I guess this one depends on just how much you bought into the Broncos over the summer, but as I understood it, this team was perceived as young and talented with a serious shot at the postseason. If that’s the case, then I don’t think that those aspirations should fade away after one narrow loss. Sure, you could argue that the scoreline was closer than it should have been, as Stephen Gostkowski missed an egregious 10 points worth of field goals, but Denver really looked to be in control all game long. Even Gostkowski’s misses were from long range, as Tennessee didn’t spend too much time in Broncos territory, where they can be so dangerous. Although the Titans’ workhorse back had a nice statistical night, I felt like the Broncos defense did a really good job of containing Derrick Henry, as he was stuffed on an uncharacteristic amount of important runs and was held to 3.7 yards per carry. Overall, Denver defended very well in the absence of all-time great Von Miller, with the obvious, glaring exception being their failure to squash out Tennessee’s final effort. The main issue, in the eyes of many, was the failure of Drew Lock and the Denver offense. It’s true that they failed to execute at times, particularly on a goal line stand that featured some inexplicable playcalling and resulted in a fourth-and-goal stop on the one yard line. But the offensive line protected lock well, not allowing a single sack against Tennessee’s formidable front seven. Melvin Gordon also played well in his Denver debut, averaging over 5 yards per carry, breaking a 25-yard run, the game’s longest, and scoring a late go-ahead touchdown. Lock and the passing game sputtered at times, but the group’s talent was very evident. Lock completed a number of high-level throws, including a wild, across-the-body throw to a heavily covered Noah Fant- who also had a stellar season opener- to secure Denver’s first touchdown of the year. Rookie wideout Jerry Jeudy, the Alabama alum, was quite impressive in his pro debut, as he looked comfortable with the NFL game throughout the contest, and late in the game, he hit his signature dead-leg cut to perfection to pick up some big extra yardage after the catch. But most importantly, this team will be getting back their star top receiver, Courtland Sutton, and adding another talented rookie pass-catcher in KJ Hamler. If Lock and the rest of the offense can become more acclimated to each other, and Sutton and Hamler are as productive as they can be, there’s no reason to believe that this team won’t be in the playoff hunt deep into December.