Week 2 NFL Picks (Schwartz)

Bengals (0-1) @ Browns (0-1) - Thursday Night Football

Odds: Browns -6, -235

Week 2 will kick off with a duel between former Heisman-winning and first-overall draft pick Quarterbacks in Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow. One is fighting for his life, after a brutal 2019 season and an embarrassing 2020 opener, as he needs to get some results in his third season as Cleveland’s starter. The other is just getting started, and looking for his first win. Burrow showed some promise in a tough week-one loss against the Chargers, particularly in the late stages of the game- an encouraging sign for a young passer. Still, Cleveland is the much more talented group, and Cincy’s young QB and core really needs some more time to get acclimated to one another and learn how to play a winning game from wire to wire. I’m projecting the Browns both to win and to cover the spread, although I would leave the chalky -235 moneyline alone.

Schwartz’s picks: Browns to win, Browns to cover

Wayne’s picks: Browns to win, Bengals to cover

Giants (0-1) @ Bears (1-0)

Odds: Bears -5.5, -240

The Giants are extremely bad. Even after a strong start, they were essentially shut down by a tough Pittsburgh front seven and picked apart by the shadow of Ben Roethlisberger. Facing off against the fearsome Bears defense will be no easier of a task, and Mitch Trubisky, coming off perhaps his biggest win in Chi town yet, is not too much worse than the current iteration of Big Ben. Plus, Allen Robinson clearly has something to prove as he potentially prepares for move, and his teammates clearly want to prove that he should, in fact, stay. Chicago isn’t exactly built to blow teams out, but a comfortable one-score victory would shock exactly nobody, so I’m picking them to win the football game, and to cover the relatively modest spread, but would once again advise anyone to avoid the moneyline, as will generally be the case with lines beyond -200.

Schwartz’s picks: Bears to win, Bears to cover

Wayne’s picks: Bears to win, Giants to cover

Falcons (0-1) @ Cowboys (0-1)

Odds: Cowboys -4.5, -210

After an offseason of big acquisitions, a phenomenal draft, and the ensuing high expectations, the opening night loss to a very mediocre Rams team was the last thing the Cowboys needed. Although it’s not nearly time to hit the panic button yet, another poor offensive showing against a Falcons team that just showed that they hardly play any defense at all would be very, very concerning. Mike McCarthy would fall under intense scrutiny in his new job, and Dak Prescott would be putting himself in quite the challenging position as he tries to secure a mega-contract at the end of this year. So, suffice it to say that I see Dallas winning this one fairly comfortably. I would almost suggest the -210 moneyline, but the value is really not there. The spread however would be a solid bet, as the ‘Boys should expect to win by at least a touchdown.

Schwartz’s picks: Cowboys to win, Cowboys to cover

Wayne’s picks: Cowboys to win, Falcons to cover

Lions (0-1) @ Packers (1-0)

Odds: Packers -6, -275

It’s honestly hard for me to understand how the Packers are so chalky in this one. Aaron Rodgers was phenomenal in week one in picking apart a putrid Vikings defense, but that’s all it was-dominating an easy opponent. There are still a lot of questions about this Packers team, and they should not take this Lions team, that pretty much controlled the first 50 minutes of football on Sunday, for granted. They’re a talented group who were better than their record showed last season, and with a healthy Matt Stafford, will give any team trouble, especially a defensively-challenged Pack. I’m not picking the Lions to win outright- I’m going with the Packers- but I like Detroit to cover the spread and make it close. Green Bay should absolutely be considered to be on upset alert this week.

Schwartz’s picks: Packers to win, Lions to cover

Wayne’s picks: Packers to win, Lions to cover

Jaguars (1-0) @ Titans (1-0)

Odds: Titans -8, -380

This time, I’m going completely against the chalk. Jags to cover, Jags to win outright on an obscene line of +290. The Titans were sloppy in victory over the Broncos, and Derrick Henry was pretty inefficient. They were lucky to hold down a lethargic, mistake-prone Denver offense, one that looked multiple tiers below the electric air attack that the Jags showcased in week 1. The Colts were able to run the ball effectively against Jacksonville in week 1, as the Titans will attempt to do. Still, it wasn’t enough, as the Jags made big, timely plays on both sides of the ball, behind great performances from multiple rookies making their pro debuts. They’re definitely underdogs, but Gardner Minshew is on a mission to prove that he, not Trevor Lawrence, is the future for Jacksonville, and I could see the Titans being complacent after a win that they were realistically pretty lucky to steal. DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault should also run wild against a suddenly-questionable Titans cornerback group. The most unlikely 1-0 in the league becomes the most unlikely 2-0, and Minshew Mania lives on.

Schwartz’s picks: Jaguars to win, Jaguars to cover

Wayne’s picks: Titans to win, Jaguars to cover

Vikings (0-1) @ Colts (0-1)

Colts -3, -150

This is a big matchup between teams who disappointed in their week one performances, and will be looking to prove that it was only an anomaly. However, I only really see one of the two teams rebounding from their opening day failure and becoming a successful team over the course of the season, and that’s the Colts. A possibly-underprepared Indy team fell victim to the less-rare-than-you-think week one trap game, as the team honestly looked fine even in the loss. Week 2 for Philip Rivers could not be coming against a better opponent, as the Vikings very green secondary was absolutely embarrassing in their own opener. This could be a very close matchup, as the odds indicate, but I’m going to pick the Colts to win the game, and suggest betting on either one of the lineup or the spread. They should be able to tack on a ton of points against an embarrassing Minnesota defense and make sure to cover the slim, three-point margin.

Schwartz’s picks: Colts to win, Colts to cover

Wayne’s picks: Colts to win, Colts to cover

Bills (1-0) @ Dolphins (0-1)

Odds: Bills -6, -250

This game is super chalky for a reason. The Bills absolutely eviscerated the Jets in week one, a team that is not too different from the Dolphins in a lot of ways. Meanwhile, the Dolphins were somewhat competitive, but were comfortably dispatched by a Patriots team that is not dissimilar from the Bills, in terms of run-first offense and defensive aptitude. Basically what I’m getting at is that the Bills should have no problem winning this game, or covering the spread. The Phins have better days ahead, but those won’t be coming against one of the league’s best defenses in week two and arguably, also not until Tua Tagovailoa makes his much-anticipated pro debut. The Bills absolutely need games like this one if they’re going to dethrone the Patriots as kings of the East, and they will absolutely be fine on Sunday.

Schwartz’s picks: Bills to win, Bills to cover

Wayne’s picks: Bills to win, Bills to cover

Rams (1-0) @ Eagles (0-1)

Odds: Rams -1, -115

Shockingly, the Rams walked away from their week one matchup with the Dallas Cowboys, largely due to a strong showing by Aaron Donald and the rest of the LA front seven. The Eagles, equally shockingly, were upset by the Washington Football Team, largely due to the stat that I’m sure you’ve heard multiple times by now- Carson Wentz was sacked 8 times. These two facts do not necessarily set the stage for a good outing for the birds this weekend. Neither of these teams is that solid overall, but this is a big opportunity for the Rams to seize the momentum that began with their impressive opening victory and try to parlay a hot start into a playoff berth. Besides, the teams’ respective strengths and weaknesses largely favor LA, namely their ability to dominate the line of scrimmage, likely on both sides of the ball. Carson Wentz and Jared Goff, the #2 and #1 picks in the 2016 NFL draft, have both struggled when their team has had to play from behind, and I believe that the Rams will be able to jump ahead and stay there. My pick is Rams moneyline, and since they’re only favored by a point, taking them against the spread to improve your payout really couldn’t hurt too much.

Schwartz’s picks: Rams to win, Rams to cover

Wayne’s picks: Rams to win and cover

Broncos (0-1) @ Steelers (1-0)

Steelers -7.5, -330

After a gritty, heartbreaking loss in week one, there is absolutely no respite for Drew Lock and co. as they head out to Pittsburgh to visit one of the league’s toughest defenses. Denver may have the services of Courtland Sutton at their disposal, as he returned to practice this week, but nonetheless is no guarantee to play. Pittsburgh looked very solid in their opening win against the Giants, although Denver could plausibly punish their brief defensive lapses more than the Giants were able to. The Broncos defense will also be less forgiving than New York’s was, so Ben Roethlisberger might have less of an opportunity to settle in and make the tougher plays. Nonetheless, I’m picking the Steelers in this game, although I wouldn’t touch the moneyline with a ten foot pole. Broncos +7.5 is a great opportunity, I fully expect them to keep the game within one score.

Schwartz’s picks: Steelers to win, Broncos to cover

Wayne’s picks: Steelers to win, Broncos to cover

Panthers (0-1) @ Buccaneers (0-1)

Odds: Bucs -8.5, -330

A number of the 16 losing teams in week one showed a lot of things to be excited about. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were one of those teams. The defense looked much-improved for most of the game, particularly stifling the Saints throughout a dominant third quarter. And Tom Brady’s arm looked very lively, more than it did in New England a year ago, although the veteran signal-caller had a few rough plays in the loss. On the other hand, the Panthers were absolutely not one of those teams. The only positives really were that they still employ Christian McCaffrey, and either Justin Fields or Trevor Lawrence might be on the way soon. Even against a very mediocre Raiders team, they looked very much the part of a team that drafts at or near the first spot in the first round. The “Tompa Bay” experiment needs this win very badly to get off of the ground and get comfortable, and I’m confident that they’ll get it- they’re my pick. I wouldn’t bet on this game, however, since a two-score spread is a bit iffy for a team that is clearly still figuring things out, and the moneyline is not nearly worth touching.

Schwartz’s picks: Buccaneers to win, Buccaneers to cover

Wayne’s picks: Buccaneers to win, Buccaneers to cover

Washington Football Team (1-0) @ Cardinals (1-0)

Odds: Cardinals -7, -310

This one is about as open and shut as any game this week. The debut performance of the Washington Football Team was a resounding success, as the defense dominated and Dwayne Haskins didn’t get in his own way. Still, they beat a fundamentally shaky Eagles team, and now will be facing a Cardinals squad that markedly improved over the offseason, and just knocked off the defending NFC champs, one of the most complete teams in the NFL. The Football Team’s defense gives me pause at the idea of betting on a 7-point spread, and the moneyline is too chalky to bet on, but I’m very confident projecting Arizona to pick up the win and earn a very nice 2-0 start.

Schwartz’s picks: Cardinals to win, Washington to cover

Wayne’s picks: Cardinals to win, Cardinals to cover

Chiefs (1-0) @ Chargers (1-0)

Odds: Chiefs -9, -440

Right now, the defending champs look like the best team in football. The Chargers, on the other hand, barely picked up a lucky win against the Bengals, who had a starting QB making his pro debut. Needless to say, Vegas pretty much got it right on this one. Derwin James really would have changed things, as he is one of the few players in the league who can match Pat Mahomes in terms of both ability and impact. However he isn’t playing, and won’t be all season, and this version of the Chargers have basically no answer for the Chiefs on either side of the ball. I wouldn’t ever suggest investing a moneyline of -440, but I think the spread of 9, while fairly broad, is worth betting on- the Chiefs should really run away with this one.

Schwartz’s picks: Chiefs to win, Chiefs to cover

Wayne’s picks: Chiefs to win, Chiefs to cover

Niners (1-0) @ Jets (0-1)

Odds: Niners - 7, -310

Although the Niners didn’t look phenomenal in their week one loss to the Cardinals, the Jets quite literally could not have looked a shred worse in getting utterly dominated by Buffalo, who realistically sport an average offense. In fact, they allowed Josh Allen’s first 300-yard passing performance since he was in college, and facing an FCS OPPONENT. You heard that right, no NFL or D1-FBS football team had ever allowed Josh Allen to crack 300 yards- until the Jets did it. What I’m getting at is that while the Niners have some questions to answer- which might only serve to motivate them- this game projects similarly to the Chiefs-Chargers matchup. The Niners will win, comfortably, but you still shouldn’t bet on the moneyline. The spread, however, seems extremely safe- San Francisco should run right by that total, and at the very worst, a push might be in play.

Schwartz’s picks: 49ers to win, 49ers to cover

Wayne’s picks: 49ers to win, 49ers to cover

Ravens (1-0) @ Texans (1-0)

Odds: Ravens -7, -330

Poor Deshaun Watson. Poor Houston in general, as they just can’t get a break, as they are entrenched in a brutal stretch of matchups against Kansas City, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh to open the season. As much faith as I have in Deshaun, I have faith in close to zero other players on the entire Houston roster, and I certainly don’t expect them to knock off one of the most complete teams in football, who rolled to week one’s widest margin of victory, after the beating they took from the defending champs over a week ago. The extra rest gives the Texans a small advantage, but I still expect Baltimore to win, and to cover.

Schwartz’s picks: Ravens to win, Ravens to cover

Wayne’s picks: Ravens to win, Ravens to cover

Patriots (1-0) @ Seahawks (1-0) - Sunday Night Football

Odds: Seahawks -4, -200

As I wrote in my week one overreactions piece, I think the Patriots had a highly deceptive week one win over a very rough, and very underprepared Miami Dolphins squad. They were not ambitious in passing the ball, and it’s really hard to say that the running game, while effective, was all that explosive- there were few big plays, and the Pats only hung 21 points on the NFL’s worst defense from a year ago. Conversely, Seattle absolutely hammered down on the Falcons, taking advantage of every opportunity that Atlanta gave them, and Russell Wilson put his foot down and firmly established himself as the best quarterback on the planet. Bill Belichick himself voiced this same sentiment, and also brought up the similar leadership and dominance on the other side of the ball, and on the sideline, of Bobby Wagner and Pete Carroll. These three men, along with new acquisition Jamal Adams, might be the best-equipped group in the NFL in terms of minimizing Cam Newton’s ground impact by containing the inside run (Wagner), patrolling the outside (Adams), scheming around the Pats’ blocking schemes (Carroll) and keeping the ball in Seattle’s hands (Wilson/Carroll). Most of all, these combined superstar efforts will force New England to play from behind and throw the ball much more than in week one. This could be a concerning forecast for the Pats, who might end up looking like last year’s Ravens and Titans, who dominated at times when they were able to dictate the pace of game, but floundered when they were forced to play from behind. This should be an entertaining game between two tough teams and a couple of the most experienced and brilliant coaches in the sport. However, I still believe that the Hawks will secure the win, and fairly comfortably too- my bet of the week is Seattle -4 in this game, as it hardly makes any sense that New England are expected to keep this matchup within one touchdown.

Schwartz’s picks: Seahawks to win, Seahawks to cover

Wayne’s picks: Seahawks to win, Seahawks to cover

Saints (1-0) @ Raiders (1-0) - Monday Night Football

Odds: Saints -5.5, -240

Well, I’m not quite sure who asked to see this matchup in a primetime slot, but here it is. The Raiders victimized a poor Carolina defense in week one en route to a low-stress victory, but face a considerably stiffer NFC South test in week two. After putting down Brady and the Saints in one of week one’s most impressive victories, the Saints are deservedly favored in this matchup. Their defense should be able to make Oakland’s offense work in ways that Carolina’s could not, and the NOLA offensive attack is much less one-dimensional, and more veteran-led. Saints -5.5 was nearly my bet of the week, as I would strongly urge any gambler to pick them to cover, but I prefer not to place that label on a weeknight wager. The Moneyline isn’t worth touching, but it might be a nice piece to put into a parlay to increase the payout.

Schwartz’s picks: Saints to win, Saints to cover

Wayne’s picks: Saints to win, Raiders to cover