NFL Mock Draft 1.0
I’ve been covering the NFL Draft extensively through written and podcast content for Action Network, but I have yet to release an official mock draft. With two weeks to go, this will be my Mock Draft 1.0. I utilized the betting markets to dictate selections in this mock draft. Stay tuned for more content as we get closer to draft night.
#1: Chicago Bears - QB Caleb Williams, USC
This one is easy. -10000 to go #1 across the market. Remarkably gifted prospect. Elite at the scramble drill, backyard football stuff we see in highlight reels, but far more poised as a pocket passer than he gets credit for.
#2: Washington Commanders - QB Jayden Daniels, LSU
Daniels is up to -220 on Caesars to be the #2 pick, the lowest odds in the market. I still believe this will be Drake Maye, and I bought Maye at 2-1 to go #2, but betting odds are still slanted towards Daniels with several NFL insiders reporting Washington leans that direction. I’d recommend betting Maye at +150 or better, but I’m sticking with the odds and putting Daniels here.
#3: New England Patriots - QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
Maye is still around even money to go #3 with some consideration to J.J. McCarthy here, but Maye is the better prospect. New England could trade down here, but Robert Kraft will push for the team to draft a premier passer.
#4: Arizona Cardinals - WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
Heavy favorite to be the first non-quarterback off the board. The Cardinals will get calls about trading down here, but I believe they stick and pick MHJ. Best price currently available is -175 on DraftKings for Marv to go #4.
#5: Minnesota Vikings - QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
This will be the only trade in this mock. The Vikings are around even money to draft McCarthy, and he’s heavily favored to go in the top five, as low as -280 on FanDuel. You can get McCarthy as low as +450 to go #5 overall on FanDuel. For the sake of simplicity, the Chargers receive #11 and #23 here. Overvalued on the Chargers side per the Rich Hill model, but a trade up for a quarterback will always be taxed.
#6: New York Giants - WR Malik Nabers, LSU
The Giants need a quarterback, but they’re happy to let Nabers fall into their laps here. Nabers is the favorite for this selection, priced as low as +140 on Caesars. If the Vikings don’t trade up for McCarthy, he’d be in consideration here.
#7: Tennessee Titans - OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame
You can still get -105 odds on Alt to be the #7 pick on FanDuel. He’s the heavy favorite to be the first offensive lineman drafted, as low as -400 on BetMGM. The Titans already addressed their other two biggest needs at WR (Calvin Ridley) and CB (L’Jarius Sneed). They get their franchise LT here.
#8: Atlanta Falcons - ED Dallas Turner, Alabama
Things start to open up more here. FanDuel has Turner at +340 odds here, with Laiatu Latu and Jared Verse next at +600. Latu has seen some steam in this market, but Turner is still the favorite to be the first defensive player drafted. He’s listed as low as -135 on BetMGM. The Falcons badly need an edge rusher here. I’m sticking with Turner for now.
#9: Chicago Bears - WR Rome Odunze, Washington
An ideal prototypical X receiver, Rome Odunze rounds out an elite receiving trio with D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen for rookie Caleb Williams. Odunze is priced as low as +200 in this market and I’d recommend a wager on him at +250 or better here.
#10: New York Jets - TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
BetMGM, BetRivers, and FanDuel all have Brock Bowers as the favorite here. Taliese Fuaga is next in the odds, as low as +550 on FanDuel. Most of the sharp mocks have had Bowers in this slot lately, and he’d add an elite receiving weapon to the offense for Aaron Rodgers. Some market diversion here with Bowers priced at over/under 11.5 on Caesars with -150 juice to the over and +120 to the under. Potential arbitrage opportunity with Bowers at plus money to be a top ten pick elsewhere.
#11: Los Angeles Chargers - OT Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State
The Chargers are favored to have an offensive lineman be their first selection. Caesars has Fuaga’s draft position market priced at 13.5 with -120 odds to the under.
#12: Denver Broncos - ED Jared Verse, Florida State
Interesting market diversion here. The Broncos are favored to take a quarterback with their first selection with odds as low as -125 on BetMGM. They’re also favored to be the team to draft Bo Nix, as low as -175 on DraftKings. However, DraftKings has Nix’s draft position over 32.5 at -150 odds. I’ll instead go with Jared Verse, who’s priced at -210 to go under 15.5 in his draft slot on Caesars. Verse fills a major need for Denver at edge, a premium position.
#13: Las Vegas Raiders - OT Troy Fautanu, Washington
The Raiders are favored to take an offensive lineman in the first round, as low as +125 on Caesars. Troy Fautanu had an excellent pre-draft process and can play guard or tackle. Brings power and polish to the line. Local kid from Henderson, Nevada.
#14: New Orleans Saints - OT Olu Fashanu, Penn State
The Saints badly need a left tackle, and they’re priced as low as -300 to go offensive line with their first pick on BetMGM and DraftKings. Fashanu, once seen as the consensus top tackle in this class, falls into their laps here.
#15: Indianapolis Colts - CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
The Colts are +110 to take a cornerback on DraftKings and Quinyon Mitchell is -190 to be the first cornerback selected in the class. GM Chris Ballard is a stickler for athletic testing, and Mitchell had an RAS of 9.8.
#16: Seattle Seahawks - DT Byron Murphy, Texas
The Seahawks are favored to take an offensive lineman with their first pick, priced as low as -160 on FanDuel. However, we’re at the end of a run on O-linemen. Instead, I’ll go with the Seahawks’ second-highest-priced need - the defensive line. New head coach Mike Macdonald could utilize Murphy similarly to Justin Madubuike, who finished with 13 sacks last season.
#17: Jacksonville Jaguars - WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
After some initial steam hit the under for Brian Thomas, there has been some buyback on the over. He’s currently priced at -125 to go over 16.5 on Caesars. We’ll slot him here to the Jaguars, who need a replacement for Calvin Ridley and are priced as low as +200 to take a WR with their first pick on DraftKings.
#18: Cincinnati Bengals - OT J.C. Latham, Alabama
The Bengals signed Trent Brown in free agency, but offensive tackle is still a clear need. Cincinnati is priced at -200 to take an offensive lineman with their first pick on BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Daniel Jeremiah had them taking Latham in his most recent mock draft.
#19: Los Angeles Rams - DT Johnny Newton, Illinois
The Rams are favored to select a defensive line/edge with their first pick, priced as low as -225 on DraftKings. Laiatu Latu will be in consideration here, but the Rams drafted three edge rushers last year. Instead, they take Newton and form one of the most fun interior defensive line pairings in the league with Kobie Turner to help replace Aaron Donald, who retired this offseason.
#20: Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Amarius Mims, Georgia
The Steelers are heavily favored to select an offensive lineman, with odds as high as -330 on DraftKings. Pittsburgh has shown consistent interest in Mims throughout the pre-draft process. Mims has been steamed to -190 to go over 22.5 on Caesars, but that’s partially due to him declining to weigh in at the Georgia pro day. I’m not sure how much weight that will ultimately carry, no pun intended, and the Steelers reunite Mims with former teammate Broderick Jones here.
#21: Miami Dolphins - OL Graham Barton, Duke
Yet another team favored to go offensive line in the first round; the Dolphins are priced as low as -150 on DraftKings. Graham Barton primarily played left tackle for Duke, but he lined up at every spot at the Senior Bowl. That positional versatility combined with strong athletic testing makes him a coveted pick.
#22: Philadelphia Eagles - CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa
The Eagles, priced as low as +100 to take a cornerback with their first pick on Caesars, desperately need to get younger in the secondary. New defensive coordinator Vic Fangio can utilize Cooper DeJean similarly to how he moved Jalen Ramsey all over the defense for Miami last season.
#23: Los Angeles Chargers - ED Laiatu Latu, UCLA
Edge isn’t a glaring need for the Chargers with Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack still in LA, but Mack just turned 33 years old and neither player is under contract past the 2025 season. Latu’s medical history is concerning, but he has the best tape of any defensive player in this draft, for my money.
#24: Dallas Cowboys - LB Edgerrin Cooper, Texas A&M
The offensive line is the favored selection for the Cowboys, but I’ll pivot to linebacker here, which is priced as low as +330 on DraftKings to be Dallas’s first selection. The Cowboys have shown significant interest in Cooper throughout the pre-draft process, and they have a clear need at linebacker after Leighton Vander Esch medically retired this offseason.
#25: Green Bay Packers - OT Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma
Offensive tackle isn’t a glaring need for the Packers, and Tyler Guyton has played just over 1,000 snaps in his career, but he has tantalizing developmental potential. With a prototypical size and a 9.71 RAS, Guyton fits the mold of a Brian Gutekunst pick. The Packers are listed as low as -150 to take an offensive lineman on DraftKings. and Guyton is -1000 to be a first-round pick.
#26: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - ED Chop Robinson, Penn State
The Buccaneers are priced as low as +140 on Caesars to take a defensive lineman or edge with their first pick. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and YaYa Diaby are recent draft picks by the team, but with Shaq Barrett’s departure, the Bucs still need to add to their pass-rushing corps. Chop Robinson offers intriguing upside with elite athletic traits.
#27: Arizona Cardinals - CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama
With a roster full of holes, the Cardinals are in a position to select the best player available with this pick. Based on the consensus EDP, that would be Terrion Arnold, who fills a clear need at cornerback.
#28: Buffalo Bills - WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas
After trading away Stefon Diggs, the Bills have a clear need at wide receiver. Buffalo is listed as low as -280 to take a receiver with their first pick on DraftKings. Adonai Mitchell provides elite athleticism - he tested with a 9.99 RAS - with fluid route-running.
#29: Detroit Lions - CB Nate Wiggins, Lions
Even after signing Amik Robertson and trading for Carlton Davis, the Lions could stand to add to their cornerback room. They’re priced as low as +130 to take a corner with their first pick on BetMGM. There are questions about Wiggins’ smaller stature and inconsistent tackling, but he’s the fastest cornerback I’ve ever seen and doesn’t turn 21 years old until August.
#30: Baltimore Ravens - OT Jordan Morgan, Arizona
Baltimore is listed as low as -230 on Caesars to take an offensive lineman with their first pick. Morgan is coming off an excellent season at left tackle for Arizona and could be the Ravens’ long-term successor for Ronnie Stanley, who turned 30 years old in March and has missed just over 53% of the team’s games over the last four seasons.
#31: San Francisco 49ers - C Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon
Erosion on the interior of the 49ers’ offensive line is arguably the biggest reason for their Super Bowl loss, and as such, they’re listed as low as -160 on DraftKings to spend their first pick of the draft on an offensive lineman. Jackson Powers-Johnson’s ability to fire off the snap and block in space makes him an ideal fit for Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Powers-Johnson is the 10th offensive lineman off the board, with over 9.5 offensive linemen favored to be selected.
#32: Kansas City Chiefs - WR Xavier Worthy, Texas
The Chiefs signed Marquise Brown in free agency, but the legal fallout of the Rashee Rice situation makes wide receiver a more pressing need. They’re listed as low as -125 on FanDuel to take a WR with their first pick. Xavier Worthy broke the combine record with a 4.21-second 40-yard dash and pairs that blazing speed with explosive change-of-direction ability.
