NFL Draft Prop Bets
By: Wayne and Schwartz
One of my favorite nights of the entire year, the NFL draft, is only a few nights away. After weeks without sports, degenerate gamblers can rejoice over the copious prop bets available in conjunction with the first round on Thursday night. I'm going to pick out some of my favorite props, the ones I'll likely be betting on, and break them all down here. Let's start with the more bizarre prop bets available on Bovada.
Over-under 4.5 technical difficulties encountered: over +225, under -350
This is Bovada's description of a "technical difficulty": Feed Slowdowns or low quality do not count towards the wager. Technical Difficulties included in the wager are any complete loss of feed, or any part of the draft proceedings or interview that must be halted because of sound or video issues.
The NFL ran through a mock draft yesterday with the league's general managers in an effort to prepare for Thursday night's virtual draft. And sure, they have their practice under their belt now - but does anyone really think we're going to get through the entire evening without a few fuckups in the technology? We're talking about 32 general managers who are in their 60s and 70s simultaneously working online with their team execs and communicating with the league offices, all of which will be transmitted to millions of people across the country. I'm betting the over here and banking on the main feed cutting out a couple of times. Odds are we'll encounter some video issues from prospects and audio connectivity problems with GMs along the way.
Roger Goodell sweat pants/pajamas yes +1000 no -5000It wouldn't be particularly professional at all for Rog to show up in a pair of pajamas, particularly at the beginning of the draft. But you're telling me he isn't lounging around his house daydreaming about Deflategate in a pair of joggers? The odds on this are set up as if Goodell doesn't wear any pajamas, or sleep at all for that matter. Which frankly, I wouldn't deny out of hand. But I imagine Goodell wearing some snazzy pajama pants with all 32 NFL teams' logos on them. This would be the perfect event to show them off. At +1000, you could win 100 bucks on just a 10 dollar bet, which feels like a slam dunk. If he does pop up in pajamas you can tell all your friends you saw it coming too.
Roger Goodell suit at beginning of draft yes -900 no +500Close your eyes and picture Roger Goodell. Ok, now open them. Did you imagine Rog wearing a suit? If you didn't, then you're probably lying, because I can't think of a single time I've seen the commish wearing anything other than a suit. Goodell seems like the type of guy who would rock a blazer and tie up top and nothing but boxers on the bottom during a Zoom call with the NFL's owners. My favorite imaginary draft scenario is him forgetting he's not wearing any pants to go with his suit up top, standing up at some point during the stream, and, well, you know the rest.
Will the draft get hacked? Yes +1600 no -10000
When I first saw this prop on Bovada, my mind went to an NFL general manager hiring a particularly tech-savvy intern to hack into the draft and change a team's pick to favor their odds. However, if this was remotely possible it would have been attempted during an in-person draft at some point. Besides, NFL general managers are likely going to be so preoccupied trying to work their various technology interfaces to plot out a major hack. Except for Dave Gettleman - he apparently only needs a binder and a bottle of Aveeno lotion. He probably doesn't even know what hacking is, though. However, with the draft so heavily reliant on technology this year there's certainly a chance of someone finding a way to hack it. Sports Illustrated broke down that possibility here.
Those are the more fun options for prop bets in this draft, but let's get into the more serious bets, starting with some action on Tua Tagolavoia, who I have rated as the best quarterback in this draft.
Second overall pick: Tua Tagolavoia +900
Joe Burrow at first overall to the Bengals feels pretty damn close to a lock at this point, and sportsbooks would have you believe that Chase Young to the Redskins with the 2nd overall pick is a lock as well. I have no problem with Young, and I think he's pretty clearly the top defensive prospect in this class, but it's unclear how the new Redskins coaching regime feels about the incumbent starter and a first-round pick from 2019 Dwayne Haskins. I'm not a huge fan of the former Ohio State QB, and I think Tua has a massive upside moving forward. +900 is some really nice value on what would admittedly be a shocking pick, but one that has a higher chance of happening than we think.
Third overall pick: Jeff Okudah EVEN, Tua Tagolavoia +400
The Lions currently hold the number 3 overall pick, and if they stay in place then Okudah will likely be their choice. Pro Bowl corner Darius Slay left the team this offseason for the Eagles, and one of Okudah's closest pro comps, ironically enough, is Slay. Okudah has future all-pro potential, and at even odds, I think he's a solid bet here as he should be the odds-on favorite. However, there's a good chance the Lions trade this pick to one of the QB needy teams (Chargers or Dolphins), and if they do, Tua would likely be the pick. I don't buy the rumors that teams would take him over Herbert.
Denzel Mims over 32.5 +130
I currently have 6 receivers slated to be taken in the first round - Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, Jefferson, Higgins, and Shenault - and Mims is not one of them. Mims is incredibly raw compared to the top receivers in this class, and while he has solid long-term upside, Shenault and Higgins are much more likely to be taken at the back of the first round with their versatility. Brandon Aiyuk would even sneak into the back of the first round for me before Mims, and I don't see 8 receivers going off the board in the first. At + odds, I really like this prop, as I think Mims could fall well into the second round with the stigma surrounding recent Baylor receiver products failing to produce.
Derrick Brown over 7.5 +160
In my mock draft, I had Derrick Brown landing with the 49ers at 13. While that's likely a lower projection than what could actually occur, I'm just not sold on Brown being a top-seven pick. He's an undeniable talent, but I'm just not sure there's enough room in the top seven for him. I see Burrow, Young, Okudah, Simmons, and Tua as being locks to be taken inside the top seven, with Herbert, Lamb/Jeudy, or one of the top tackle prospects (Wills, Wirfs, Thomas, Becton) as being more likely to sneak in there over Brown. Teams just don't value defensive tackles the same way anymore with the league much more focused on the downfield passing game. He's a talented prospect, but I see him falling out of the top seven and I like the + odds here.
Henry Ruggs over 13.5 EVEN
I think the odds should be favoring Ruggs making it past 13.5, rather than the other way around. Ruggs is an awesome receiver prospect, but Jeudy and Lamb are close to a lock to go ahead of him. Along with them, I see three quarterbacks (Burrow, Tua, Herbert), four offensive tackles (Wills, Wirfs, Thomas, Becton), and four defensive players (Young, Okudah, Simmons, Brown) as being pretty close to a lock to being taken over Ruggs. The earliest I see Ruggs coming off the board is at 13 to the 49ers, but if Brown is still available they will almost certainly go that direction. I think that organization is smart enough to recognize the depth in this draft class at receiver as well, and hold off on drafting one until later. I currently have Ruggs going to the Dolphins with the 18th pick.
Lloyd Cushenberry under 32.5 +550
Besides having perhaps the coolest name in this draft class, Cushenberry also might be the most talented interior offensive line prospect. This prop would be an angle on one of the teams toward the end of the first round prioritizing that position, and it's certainly a need for teams like the Ravens, Packers, Chiefs, and Seahawks. In my mock I had Cushenberry falling below Cesar Ruiz and well into the second round, but it wouldn't be shocking to see him go off the board at the end of the first round and these are nice odds on that. The public is recognizing this as well, as this line was at +650 just last night.
More players drafted: Pac-12 +0.5 over ACC, +140
My mock draft came in pretty Pac-12 heavy, with Justin Herbert (Oregon), Austin Jackson (USC), Laviska Shenault (Colorado), and Jaylon Johnson (Utah) all representing the conference out west. I had 2 Clemson guys in the first round, Isaiah Simmons and Tee Higgins, joining Louisville's Mekhi Becton. With the Pac-12 in the + region for this prop, I lean that direction. A.J. Terrell could sneak into the first round out of Clemson, but I think all those Pac-12 guys are locks for the first round, save for maybe Shenault. There's a good chance the Pac-12 at least has the same number of guys as the ACC. I like the Pac-12 over 2.5 players drafted at -105 odds too.
More players drafted: offense -300 defense +200
If you're feeling defensive, these are some nice odds to favor players on that side of the ball. My mock featured exactly 16 guys on each side of the ball, and with heavy odds on the offensive side I'm a big fan of leaning the other direction toward the value on defense.
Panthers first pick: offense +375 defense -650
These are among the heavier first pick odds for offense vs defense, and I'm not sure why. The Panthers are desperate for offensive line help, and there are plenty of elite prospects who should still be on the board for their pick. Perhaps they lean toward Simmons if he's still on the board, but I don't expect him to be, and I think Derrick Brown is less valuable than the offensive linemen. At +375 I love these odds.
Giants first pick: offense -350 defense +225
It seems like sportsbooks are sold on the Giants going with an offensive lineman early on in the draft, which might be the smartest choice as they could get an elite bookend to protect Daniel Jones. Of course, the smart move is usually not the one Dave Gettleman makes, and I have Isaiah Simmons coming off the board to them here. Derrick Brown could be in play, as well. At +225 odds, give me Gettleman making the wrong choice here.
Eagles first pick: offense -300 defense +200
There's a good chance the Eagles take a receiver like Justin Jefferson or Tee Higgins in the first round, but the team is also desperate for an inside linebacker who has sideline-to-sideline playmaking ability. Kenneth Murray and Patrick Queen fit that mold, and one or both could still be available when the Eagles pick. Give me +200 odds for them to take one of those guys.
Team to draft Jerry Jeudy: Broncos +300
The odds were much longer a few days ago, but have skyrocketed up in recent days as rumors have swirled about the Broncos attempting to trade up to take Jeudy. The odds aren't great now, but if you want to get a piece of John Elway getting what he wants then feel free to hop on here.
Tee Higgins under 32.5 +170
There are plenty of wide receivers who could be drafted at the end of the first round, but none of them have Higgins' jump-ball and contested-catch abilities. He's a massive red-zone threat at 6'4", and while a raw route-runner, he has awesome upside. There are no teams who wouldn't benefit from his type of presence on the outside on offense. I have him coming off the board to the Vikings. Tee Higgins is also +140 to be drafted ahead of Denzel Mims, which are odds I really like as I have Higgins as the much more highly rated prospect.
Justin Herbert third quarterback drafted -110
The odds have come to almost even between Tua and Herbert being the second quarterback off the board, which I have a hard time understanding. Yes, Tua has injury issues and unanswered questions in regard to his health, but his anticipation, intelligence, and arm talent make him a damn near complete prospect. He is far more talented than Herbert and if the health concerns weren't there this would be a non-question. Tua is -125 to be the second QB drafted but I like these odds better.
Total Alabama players drafted in first round over 5.5 +110
Just like every year, there are a ton of talented Alabama players in this class. I have 6 of them - Tua, Jedrick Wils, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, Xavier McKinney, and Trevon Diggs - coming off the board in the first round. Terrell Lewis could sneak into the first as well. Bet the over on 5.5 total players.
That's all for my prop bets, I hope you enjoy and can win some money on these lines. The virtual NFL draft is right around the corner and I'm thrilled to break it all down for you guys here. I'll be posting my draft review content this weekend, and you can follow my Twitter @wayne_sports_ for my thoughts live during the draft. Stay tuned.
