New England's QB Future
by: Schwartz
When the greatest football player of all time, Tom Brady, decided to follow the lead of fellow legend LeBron James and take his talents down to Florida, it sent shockwaves through an already-wacky NFL offseason, and manifestly changed the course of NFL history. Of course, no team has felt the effects more than Brady’s longtime club, where he’s been the past two decades, the New England Patriots. This has inspired many Pats fans, including myself, to look in two directions- backward, reflecting upon the amazing career we’ve been lucky enough to watch, which I've recently written about, and forwards, pondering a question that we haven’t had to think about in what feels like a lifetime; what’s the deal with the QB position in Foxborough? There are a few directions this could go in, and let’s take a look at a few:
Jarrett Stidham
In what amounts to the most likely option as of now, the Patriots could see what they have in their young QB from the most recent draft. He wasn’t great in limited regular season action this year, but Stidham showed some nice ability in the preseason, and sources close to the team believe that he had a great year of practice, and has plenty of promise as the QB of the future. Unfortunately, while playing under Josh McDaniels is a great opportunity for a young field general, that’s about where the positives end for the Auburn grad. He’d be behind a shaky line, following the (second) retirement of legendary New England o-line coach Dante Scarnecchia, and have almost no high-level offensive skill weapons at his disposal, save for 34-year old Julian Edelman, who has already hinted that he wants out. Essentially, Jarrett would be working with a brutal offense, and hope to be propped up by a strong but clearly diminished defense, which has lost a handful of key contributors in one swift wave following TB12 leaving the team. The season could essentially go two ways with Stidham at the helm. Hopefully, he looks the part of a pro QB, and reminds everyone why at his best, he was seen as a first-round talent who had shredded the likes of Alabama during his SEC days, and leads a questionable Pats roster to a nice season, potentially including a playoff berth. Alternately, he is middling to bad, and isn’t able to elevate a weak roster, likely amounting in a 3 to 6 win season. While the second one would be more painful, either option seems acceptable, as one shows the team that they have a franchise QB in Stidham, and the other shows that it won’t be him, and sets the team up with the draft capital to go out and find someone who might be up to the challenge. As a New England fan, Stidham is the option I hope the team chooses. He has the potential to be the team’s next quarterback; we should all get to see whether or not he can make use of his talent and be a success.
Brian Hoyer, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco
I’ve grouped these quarterbacks together, with the hasty addition of Hoyer after he signed in New England, not because what they could bring to New England is identical, but because what the implication of any of them being named QB1 would be- a bridge QB. None of these players has the ability, or the youth, to take this team to a truly competitive level in the long or short run. Any of these passers being QB1 is the least exciting option for the Patriots, and arguably the worst. The only strong argument for choosing one of them is that head coach Bill Belichick’s days are numbered, as he is the second-oldest coach in football, and he is not likely to want to spend his last few seasons coaching a team in a true free fall on the path to a rebuild. Most likely, the veteran experience that any of these QBs would bring would be enough to keep the Patriots out of the NFL’s cellar, without actually elevating them to a level where they could be a postseason threat. Other than a desire to hang on to Belichick, I see no real reason to pursue this route, as it would delay the transition to the team’s next competitive era, while not helping them be immediately competitive. This seems like a one-way ticket to the dreaded Jeff Fisher zone; a stagnant, decent, not so bad but not so good either, 7-9 season.
Jameis Winston
Oh boy. I can’t imagine that Bill Belichick and everyone else in New England would be happy about doing what amounts to a QB swap with the Bucs. Of all of the players available this offseason, Winston offers maybe the highest potential to keep the Pats competitive, as under coaches Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels, he could potentially utilize his high natural talent while cutting down on the mistakes that plagued him in Tampa. But, conversely, Bruce Arians is a pretty great QB coach himself, and if Jameis didn’t work out with him, there’s really no guarantee that things in New England would be any better, especially considering the drop-off in the talent he’d be working with; throwing to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans is very different than throwing to Julian Edelman (maybe) and….someone else, hopefully. I’m truly unsure who else will be playing receiver for the Patriots this season, which is a serious cause for concern. For these reasons, I see Famous Jameis, fresh off a 30-interception season, as the Quarterback who also has perhaps the most downside of any of the Pats’ options. This is the very definition of a risky signing and although I feel like it would be entertaining to watch, it is not the first choice I’d make if I were in Coach/General Manager Belichick’s shoes.
Cam Newton
This signing would be another boom or bust situation for New England, but for very different reasons than those related to Winston. We know Cam has the ability and polish to be a high-level pro quarterback, as he showed us his unique talent and command of the football field during his brilliant 2015 MVP campaign. However, the physical tools that first made him so compelling are now the biggest question mark of the former Panther’s current value and ability. Since his MVP season, Cam has famously taken a ton of hits, and sustained some significant injuries. Although he first hurt it a few seasons ago, Cam’s throwing shoulder has been very clearly not right in years past. Throughout the second half of the 2018 season, when a promising 6-2 Panthers start suddenly gave way to a 7 game losing streak, he was skipping throws and badly missing open receivers before he was eventually shut down for the final two weeks. More recently, he played just two games in 2019 before a nagging foot injury completely wiped out his season. For a quarterback like Cam, who uses his athleticism as one of his key weapons, these physical ailments are particularly concerning. Further complicating his medical situation is the impossibility of conducting medical examinations during this period of Coronavirus-related shutdowns. It’s possible that his physical limitations could be somewhat masked in a New England passing attack under Josh McDaniels that emphasizes throws that travel shorter distances in the air, and at the age of just 30, Cam could stick around for several seasons if he’s a good fit. Still, I don’t see any of the best case scenarios as too likely, and unless the price tag is strikingly low, I believe that the Patriots should pass on Cam Newton, especially if they aren’t able to get an understanding of his level of health.
Deshaun Watson
No, I know, not yet, this isn’t about the immediate future or the Pats’ 2020 opening day starter. But just hear me out. Recently, some genius noticed that Las Vegas oddsmakers have Deshaun as the favorite to start for New England in 2021, at about 3-to-1 odds. That’s by no means a slam dunk, but it’s an interesting scenario to think about, as Vegas has to put their money where their mouth is and thus does a pretty great job of being right. Texans coach/GM Bill O’Brien has made some truly puzzling moves over the past couple of seasons, most recently trading away Watson’s top receiver, and possibly the best wideout in the league, DeAndre Hopkins. The team has done little to support the rise of Watson’s immense talent, and even less to ensure his and the team’s long term success. It’s looking more and more likely that, as his contract expires after the upcoming season, Deshaun will be finding a new home for 2021. Of course, the Texans are likely to use the franchise tag on him if they realize they are at an impasse in long-term negotiations, but this probably wouldn’t be an effort to retrain their young QB, as much as an effort to recoup value via trade rather than letting him walk in free agency. If they feel that they have the rest of the pieces in place to be successful, the Patriots could certainly be a candidate to make this trade a year from now during the spring/summer of 2021, and end the Belichick/McDaniels era with an exciting, competitive offense behind one of the league’s top young passers.
Although it’s hard to know just now, that is a potential situation that could be very attractive to both the team and the player. Of course, if the Pats are truly terrible in 2020, putting them out of contention to land Deshaun Watson and into the top 5-ish spots of the 2021 draft, one of Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, or any other high-end QB prospect is a high possibility as the franchise QB of the future in Foxborough. Regardless, even the potential of bringing an MVP-caliber quarterback to the Patriots is an exciting prospect for a franchise who has suffered its toughest blow in years, one that its fans hoped they would never have to sustain. Still, I’m excited to see what happens with Tom in Tampa, and I’m ready to learn what’s next for the Patriots at the quarterback position, in 2020 and beyond.
