NBA All-Star Picks - Western Conferences

By: Wayne

The NBA's All-Star game is right around the corner. It figures to be a massive occasion, as it always is, this year, with festivities taking place in Chicago, Illinois. The NBA announced its all-star starters yesterday, which are the result of a variety of voters - 50% fans, 25% media, and 25% players. The following are the resulting starting lineups:

Western Conference: James Harden, Luka Doncic, LeBron James (captain), Kawhi Leonard, and Anthony Davis

Eastern Conference: Trae Young, Kemba Walker, Giannis Antetokounmpo (captain), Pascal Siakam, and Joel Embiid

LeBron and Giannis were the top voters in their respective conferences, so they earn the honor of being the captain of their teams. It is important to note that under the new all-star format, these two players will draft their respective teams on February 6th. That means the final rosters will not be dependent on conference alignment - Giannis could end up with Harden on his team, and LeBron could end up with Embiid. It will be interesting to see how the draft process plays out.

In the meantime, we are still waiting on the more interesting and controversial returns on the all-star reserves. Every year there are players who seem to have a deserving case to be in the game and just miss the cut - such is life when only 24 players can be chosen out of a league of 400+. In preparation for the all-star reserve returns, I am going to put together my roster for each conference, including a couple of changes I would suggest to the starting lineups. Alright, let's get into it.

Western Conference picks:

Starters:

James Harden - An absolute lock for a starting spot, Harden is averaging 36.6 points per game this season - somehow his third straight year setting a new career-high in scoring. His current points average ranks 7th all time, just a fraction behind Michael Jordan's best season and with Wilt Chamberlain's decade of dominance in the 60s taking the other 5 spots ahead of Harden. The Beard has evolved into one of the best offensive threats in the league - he is tied with Luka Doncic for the league lead in FiveThirtyEight's offensive RAPTOR rating, which accounts for +/- rating and wins above replacement. The Rockets' pace has improved dramatically with the addition of Russell Westbrook - they are generating about 6 more possessions per game - which has helped allow Harden to maintain his monstrous offensive numbers from last season despite playing next to a high-usage guard in Russ. Harden's defensive limitations are a factor but have long been overblown, and it's not a stretch to call him the best offensive threat in the league at the moment. Harden also leads the NBA in win shares at the moment. He should be an MVP finalist yet again, and he was an easy lock as an all-star starter.

Luka Doncic - Man, oh man what a season it's been for the 20-year-old Slovenian. The Matador (nickname courtesy of Basketball-Reference) is averaging 29.1 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game. He also leads the league in offensive rating and is second in player impact estimate (minimum 30 minutes played per game). With Doncic on the floor, the Mavericks have an offensive rating of 120.9 which would give them the best offense of all time - better than the record-breaking Warriors dynasty. With Doncic on the floor, the Mavs have the second-best net rating in the league, behind only the Bucks. With him on the bench, their net rating drifts much closer to middle-of-the-pack. And perhaps my favorite Luka stat - Doncic has produced more triple-doubles before turning 21 than every other player in NBA history COMBINED. Dallas currently sits in the 5th seed in the West with a 28-16 record, and Luka is an obvious reason why. I knew the young superstar had elite potential, but the way he has progressed in his second season is absolutely staggering. It's been a joy to watch him play, and I can't wait to see what the future holds for him as he progresses towards his prime.

LeBron James - The King has played in every all-star game since 2005 - 16 straight. He has won the game's MVP award 3 times in that span. LeBron has done an impressive job of evolving his game as he enters the latter stages of his career. He's averaging a career-high and league-leading 10.8 assists per game, and also leads the NBA in assist percentage. He has marshaled a Lakers offense that has a top-5 offensive rating despite getting inconsistent play from its backcourt all year. LeBron finds himself near the top of the league in just about every advanced metric, including a total RAPTOR rating (offense + defense) that puts him behind only Harden, Giannis, and Kawhi Leonard. LeBron deserves a ton of credit for reinventing himself on the defensive end of the floor this season. Despite being 35 years old, he ranks second behind only Alex Caruso among Lakers players in defensive and net rating. LeBron ranks in the top-5 league-wide in terms of net rating, and the Lakers perform 12.2 points per 100 possessions worse when he is off the floor. LeBron has been the key to the Lakers' Western Conference-leading 36-9 record, and the fact that he has only missed two of the team's games is incredibly impressive as well. The extended time off during the playoffs last year did the King some good and he looks ready for another long playoff run. The fact that he has been this good despite inching closer to the top ten in most minutes played in NBA history is mind-boggling - he is the NBA's premier iron man, and it's been a joy to watch the majority of his career as a fan.

Kawhi Leonard - Kawhi is my iPhone screensaver, so take all of this with a grain of salt - but I think the reigning Finals MVP is the best player in the NBA. He is currently putting up a career-high in points (27.1), rebounds (7.4), and assists (5.0) and has maintained a solid shooting line of 46.6%/35.5%/88.8% despite taking more attempts than he ever has in his career. Kawhi's mid-range shot might be the best weapon in the NBA, and he ranks inside the top ten in field goal percentage from just about everywhere on the floor. He is also the only player to rank inside the top 12 for FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR rating both on offense and defense. He will get knocked a bit for only playing in 34 of the Clippers' 45 games, but he still ranks inside the top 20 in win shares league-wide and the Clippers perform 11.2 points per 100 possessions better with the Claw on the floor - on pace with some of the best marks around the NBA. Kawhi is also the only player to rank inside the top 6 for both offensive and defensive rating - his net rating is second in the league behind only Giannis Antetokounmpo. With Kawhi on the floor, the Clippers would rank first in the league in offensive rating and third in the league in defensive rating. The Clippers have a strong 26-8 record with Kawhi in the lineup and have gone 5-1 in their last 6 games with Board Man playing. The biggest enigma in the NBA is also the league's best player, and he seems to be rounding into playoff form as we work our way into the second half of the regular season.

Nikola Jokic - Alright, so here is where my first difference from the actual starters occurs. There are factors that make Anthony Davis appear to be the obvious choice here - he ranks third in the NBA in blocks per game, first in loose balls recovered per game, and third in contested three-pointers per game, which shows his value as a switchable player in pick and roll sets defensively. Davis is also averaging the 9th-most points per game this year, with 26.3. However, Davis's on/off splits actually show the Lakers playing better when he is off the floor. I'm not questioning Davis's elite talent, but I believe Jokic has been much more important to his team this year. For comparison, with the Honey Badger on the floor, the Nuggets perform 7.6 points per 100 possessions better. With Jokic playing, his team's offensive rating is top-three in the league, and with him on the bench, they are well below average. After a bit of a rocky start to the season, Jokic has regained his elite form - over his last 25 games, Jokic is averaging 22.8 points and 6.6 assists on a 63.3 true shooting percentage, including 40.4% from 3-point range. The big man has been particularly impressive in the clutch, with the second-best FG% in the NBA at the end of close games, helping Denver earn a 17-9 record in their 26 clutch-time appearances. The Nuggets are 30-14, and while they have a collection of impressive depth, Jokic is the only player on the roster who is even in the realm of all-star consideration. I believe the team's record would be worse should Davis and Jokic switch positions, and you can make the case Jokic means as much to his team as the top-tier players in the league.

My starters - James Harden, Luka Doncic, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Jokic

In addition to 5 starters, each conference also gets 7 reserves. I wanted to start by just putting down the list of names who I think will at least garner consideration for one of those spots: Anthony Davis, Rudy Gobert, Damian Lillard, Chris Paul, Brandon Ingram, Donovan Mitchell, LaMarcus Aldridge, Devin Booker, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Karl Anthony-Towns, Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Ja Morant.

That list is in no real order, just the guys who I think can be justified for one of the 7 reserve spots. I'm going to nominate my 7 in order of the strongest locks.

Anthony Davis - While I don't think the Unibrow was quite worthy of a starting spot, it would be ludicrous to leave him off the roster entirely. Davis's league-leading field goal percentage in the restricted area has helped him get to 26.3 points per game, and there's little doubt he has played an integral role to the Lakers having a top 5 offensive, defensive, and net rating, as well as the second-best record in the NBA. Davis's length and mobility as a big man help the Lakers win games in several ways that don't show up on the stat sheet, and he is an incredibly active defender. Davis does lead the NBA in blocks and rebounds per clutch time appearance, but his field goal percentage and points leave a bit to be desired. It wouldn't be a stretch at all to call Davis LeBron's best teammate since Dwyane Wade, however, and he is 12th in the total RAPTOR ratings. Davis is averaging his lowest rebounding total since his rookie season, but as age 26 he should theoretically just be entering his prime now and he will take on even more of a burden in the coming years as LeBron's minutes played tick higher and higher. Davis is perhaps the best two-way big man in basketball right now, and the only reason he isn't an all-star starter in my mind is that he means a bit less to his team than Nikola Jokic right now. That could all change as soon as next year, however.

Rudy Gobert - It feels really weird to put out three straight big men here. After all, the NBA has begun a noticeable trend toward favoring pace and space, guard play, and 3 point shooting. None of those quite characterize the Stifle Tower, who's 7'1" height and 7'9" make him one of the most imposing presences in basketball. Gobert's +11.7 net rating puts him third in the entire NBA behind only Kawhi and Giannis, however, and the Jazz's 31-13 record and current 2 seed in the West makes them entirely deserving of at least one all-star. Why not Rudy, who is surely their best player? Gobert leads the NBA in one of the most consistently overlooked stats - offensive screen assists - as he has helped the Jazz generate 17.9 points per game via that metric. For comparison, the second-highest player is Domantas Sabonis with 2 fewer points per game, and only 9 players have been able to generate double-digit points per game via offensive screens. Gobert has also contested the third-most 2-point attempts in the league, and he ranks 5th among all centers in defensive field goal percentage against (minimum 6 shot attempts faced). Rudy fares incredibly well via the RAPTOR metric, which shows him as the best defensive player in the NBA and the 5th best player overall ahead of huge names like Luka Doncic, Anthony Davis, Paul George, and Joel Embiid. Rudy also ranks 3rd in the NBA in win shares and has quietly been putting up a career-high 14.5 rebounds. His 15.6 points per game don't nearly do justice to the offensive threat he is, and he is clearly one of the premier rim protectors in the league. He may not be the most flashy player, but he is a clear lock for the all-star game in my opinion.

Damian Lillard - I had a really hard time evaluating Dame this year, as the Blazers sit at 19-27 and are the worst they have been in years. Losing three starters from last year - Maurice Harkless, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Jusuf Nurkic - has clearly hampered this team's ability to compete in games. I really believe winning matters for the all-star game, and it bothers me when players are producing numbers on crappy teams. I don't believe Dame falls into that category, though, as he somehow ranks top-5 in the league in win shares. Without their fearless leader, the Blazers might be racing towards a top lottery selection - and yeah, their 19-27 record is not impressive, but it might be closer to the Warriors' 10-36 record without Lillard. Dame is putting up a career-high in points per game with 28.3 on an impressive 45%/37.4%/88.9% shooting split when you consider how much defensive attention is keyed in on him night after night. He has taken more unassisted shots than anyone in the league. Lillard is also putting up a career-high 7.6 assists per game, 7th-most in the NBA. Dame has been able to elevate the play of his mediocre teammates and has even made Melo look like a great pickup. Dame has played on much better teams in recent years, and it shouldn't really be a knock on him that the front office didn't do a great job with transitioning this roster forward over the offseason. Hassan Whiteside hasn't been nearly as good as his raw numbers would suggest, and the team has been far too reliant on young guys like Anfernee Simons, Gary Trent Jr., Skal Labissiere, and Mario Hezonja. The one constant has been Damian Lillard being one of the league's best scorers night after night.

Devin Booker - As I have worked through the advanced metrics for more and more players, I kept seeing Booker's name pop up in impressive ways. For starters, he leads the NBA in field goal percentage on shots inside of 8 feet. He has one of the more balanced shooting profiles in the league and has been able to maintain an elite 50.8 field goal percentage and a league-leading 91.9% from the free-throw line (minimum 5 attempts per game). Booker also ranks inside the top 15 offensively via the RAPTOR rating. He is averaging 26.5 points per game along with 6.3 assists and 4.1 rebounds. Playing alongside a real point guard in Ricky Rubio (who is 2nd in the NBA in assists per game) for the first time in his career has clearly helped him boost his overall efficiency. Booker has played pretty well in clutch time, with the 7th-best field goal percentage and 10th-most points per clutch game. Book is one of the best isolation scorers in the league, and the eye test tells you he can trade buckets with just about anyone in the NBA down the stretch of a close game. He also ranks third in the league in true shooting percentage. Currently just 2.5 games out of the playoffs, the Suns have a chance to be playing in the postseason for the first time in Booker's career thanks to the arrival of key vets like Rubio and Aaron Baynes, as well as the culture shift instigated by new head coach Monty Williams. Booker has been the key to it all though, and it would be a joy to see him playing meaningful basketball minutes for the first time this season as I believe he is one of the top 15 players in the league.

Chris Paul - At 26-19 and firmly in control of the 7th seed in the Western Conference, the Thunder deserve to have one of their solid players make the all-star game. I really really really wanted to make this pick Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but CP3 has been the more important player for OKC by most advanced metrics. SGA is destined to be an all-star in the very near future, however. Chris Paul's raw numbers are solid if unspectacular - 17 points, 5 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game on a decent 47.6%/36.6%/89.4% shooting split. CP3 also has the 7th-most clutch points per game in the NBA (minimum 12 games played) on an impressive 53.6% from the field that's only bested by Jokic and Embiid. Paul's assist-to-turnover ratio ranks 4th in the NBA among players who have played more than 30 minutes per game. Among Thunder players, only Dennis Schroder has a better net rating (and he plays many more minutes against second units) and CP3 also leads the team in win shares. After losing Paul George and Russell Westbrook over the offseason, a feeling of despair set in for Thunder fans. However, Paul has helped lead the transition to the new era for this franchise. This is the first "normal" basketball team CP3 has played on since his New Orleans days, and he seems rejuvenated. The Thunder score 11.5 more points per 100 possessions with Paul on the floor, and he has maintained himself as a solid on-ball defender despite being 34 - he ranks near the top of the league in deflections and has generated 1.3 steals per game. It has been really fun to watch an offense revolve around CP3 again instead of him playing Robin to James Harden's Batman, and a first-round series between the Thunder and Clippers would be a really fun opportunity for him to play against his former team. He deserves to make one more all-star game as his career is beginning to wind down a bit.

Brandon Ingram - As someone who really thinks winning should impact the all-star teams, it bothers me that Ingram's Pelicans are well below .500 at 17-28 and he has under 4 win shares. However, Ingram sits inside the top 10 in both usage rate and points per game. He has scored 25.5 points per game on an impressive 47.1%/39.4%/85.3% shooting split and has also contributed 4.3 assists and 6.6 rebounds per game. Sometimes raw numbers are enough to give a guy the all-star nod even if his team sucks, and I think that's the case here. Ingram's 3-point shooting has been particularly impressive, as before this season he never took more than 2 attempts per game and this year he's taking 6.3 shots from deep and hitting an impressive clip of them. It isn't too surprising that the Pelicans score 4.2 more points per 100 possessions with Ingram on the floor. He has developed into the multi-level, talented scorer people thought he could be early in his career, and he deserves a ton of credit for making a smooth transition with his new team despite concerns over his health due to blood clot issues last year. Ingram has established career-highs across the board, and he should be considered a strong candidate to win the NBA's most improved player award. More team success would make him a clear lock for an all-star spot, but his raw numbers and efficiency metrics are enough to get him in. With the Pelicans still just a handful of games out of the playoffs, and Zion Williamson finally making his debut for the team, they could still make a playoff push - Ingram's offensive ability would be a huge reason why.

Update: Donovan Mitchell - I originally had Karl Anthony-Towns taking the final Western Conference All-Star spot, but after the Wolves lost their 8th straight game last night - the longest losing streak in the NBA - I decided to make a change. I already was overloaded on centers, and that combined with KAT missing 17 games and the Wolves frankly playing better for stretches without him in the lineup was enough to push him off this list. So in comes Mitchell, who alongside Rudy Gobert, has helped the Jazz maintain a top-seven unit in both offensive and defensive rating. In his third season, the Louisville product has upped his scoring to a career-high 24.7 points per game on an impressive shooting split of 46.2%/36.5%/85.6% - all career bests. He's also chipping in a modest 4.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game. The reason I was a bit lower on him is he has 4 teammates - Gobert, Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce O'Neale, and Joe Ingles - who have produced a better net rating than him this season, but Mitchell beats out all of those guys in terms of win shares and PER. He is the go-to scorer for Utah late in games, and his 3.8 points per game in the clutch (within 5 points in final 5 minutes) have helped his team produce a 17-7 record in those appearances. His offensive versatility and high-flying scoring are the keys to the engine for the Jazz, especially in terms of their long-term competitive upside. Mitchell became the 6th guard in NBA history to score 4,500 points in his first 200 career NBA games, joining Dwyane Wade, Allen Iverson, Mitch Richmond, Michael Jordan, and Vince Carter - 5 players who are already or will eventually have their legacies recognized by the Hall of Fame. Mitchell is set for an outstanding NBA career, and he should be rewarded with his first all-star nod this season.

Honorable mentions - Russell Westbrook, LaMarcus Aldridge, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Paul George, Ja Morant, Karl Anthony-Towns, DeMar DeRozan

My final Western Conference All-Star roster:

Starters: James Harden, Luka Doncic, LeBron James (captain), Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Jokic

Reserves: Chris Paul, Damian Lillard, Devin Booker, Brandon Ingram, Anthony Davis, Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell