NBA All Star Picks - Eastern Conference

By: Wayne

I was in the middle of writing this article when my phone started to flood with the news of Kobe and Gianna Bryant's involvement in a helicopter crash that took their lives, along with the lives of 7 other passengers. The all-star game, and the rest of this NBA season for that matter, now takes on an entirely different light. I debated not following through with posting this, but I honestly think Kobe would want me to continue to follow my passion for sports writing and channel the Mamba mentality in what I'm doing. I cried over the keyboard as I wrote about Kobe in his daughter in their separate memorial pieces, and in this article, I want to maintain a different focus as I try to analyze the best players in the Eastern Conference this season. Some of the stats (particularly for the first few starters) are no longer current, as I researched them well before posting this, but for the purpose of continuity, I have left them in place. This week has been incredibly difficult, but as the league moves forward, so will I with my planned content for this page.

The NBA's All-Star game is right around the corner. It figures to be a massive occasion, as it always is, this year, with festivities taking place in Chicago, Illinois. The NBA announced its all-star starters yesterday, which are the result of a variety of voters - 50% fans, 25% media, and 25% players. The following are the resulting starting lineups:

Western Conference: James Harden, Luka Doncic, LeBron James (captain), Kawhi Leonard, and Anthony Davis

Eastern Conference: Trae Young, Kemba Walker, Giannis Antetokounmpo (captain), Pascal Siakam, and Joel Embiid

A couple of days ago, I posted my Western Conference all-star picks, with one small change in replacing Anthony Davis with Nikola Jokic in the starting lineup. My Eastern Conference selections are bound to be much more controversial, with plenty of deserving candidates and my list featuring two changes from the actual starting lineup.

LeBron and Giannis were the top voters in their respective conferences, so they earn the honor of being the captain of their teams. It is important to note that under the new all-star format, these two players will draft their respective teams on February 6th. That means the final rosters will not be dependent on conference alignment - Giannis could end up with Harden on his team, and LeBron could end up with Embiid. It will be interesting to see how the draft process plays out.

In the meantime, we are still waiting on the more interesting and controversial returns on the all-star reserves. Every year there are players who seem to have a deserving case to be in the game and just miss the cut - such is life when only 24 players can be chosen out of a league of 400+. In preparation for the all-star reserve returns, I am going to put together my roster for each conference, including a couple of changes I would suggest to the starting lineups. Fasten your seatbelts gang, let's get into it.

Eastern Conference picks:

Starters:

Kemba Walker (backcourt) - The former UConn product is thriving in his first NBA season with the Boston Celtics, and has helped the team earn a 30-14 record at the time I'm writing this - good for the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference. Somewhat predictably, as he's playing with by far the most talent around him in his 9-year career, Kemba has put up career-high shooting numbers pretty much across the board on his way to 22.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 5.0 assists. Walker has been a huge reason for Boston's top-five offensive rating, as he ranks second in the NBA in offensive rating among players who have played 30+ minutes per game (behind only Luka Doncic). He also ranks 9th in the NBA in net rating (min. 30+ minutes per game). Walker has never been seen as a top-level defender but the 6'0" point guard hasn't been a total negative on that end of the floor - his defensive rating is much more in the realm of Jimmy Butler and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander than Trae Young and Bradley Beal. The Celtics operate as the best offense in the NBA with Walker on the floor in terms of net rating, and with him off the floor, they drop to a bottom-ten unit. Kemba leads the Celtics with 5 win shares (17th in the NBA) and has been a tremendous leader for this young team who really needed a veteran leading presence after the turmoil it endured last year.

Jimmy Butler (backcourt) - Yeah, not Trae Young. This is obviously my most controversial pick, but hear me out. I do realize Young leads Eastern Conference guards in scoring (28.8 points) and assists (8.5), but the sophomore guard is so unbelievably bad defensively. He is the fifth-worst player in the NBA in defensive rating, and with Young on the court, the Hawks' defensive rating would qualify as literally the worst in NBA history. Young's atrocious defense and the Hawks having the worst record in the East at 11-35 take him out of the running for a starting spot in my opinion. So who replaces him? I looked at Simmons, Lowry, Brogdon, etc. but none of them really felt like the right answer. I'm gonna bend the rules a little bit and qualify Butler as a guard. Sue me. Hamstringing the all-star game with positional requirements is stupid and Butler can defend any position. Butler ranks inside the top 15 in the league in PER and his 20.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 6.4 assists have helped the Heat to the East's 3rd-seed with a 32-15 record. With Butler on the floor, the Heat transforms from a middling offense to the second-best unit in the league. His 3-point shooting hasn't been up to snuff, but he gets to the free-throw line more than any other guard in the league per field goal attempt, shooting 83.5% from the line on 9.5 attempts per game. Butler has also been awesome defensively, allowing just 40% of shots taken against him to be converted. He plays with a level of tenacity and competitiveness on both ends of the floor every night that is inspiring to his teammates, and he makes life very difficult for opposing teams. Butler ranks inside the top ten in the league in win shares, and he has only missed 6 games this season. He also ranks 6th in FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR rating. Jimmy Buckets has found a home in Miami, and the entire team has transformed into a new identity around his persona. His two-way impact makes him deserving of an all-star starting spot.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (frontcourt) - The reigning MVP was by far the easiest lock in the Eastern Conference. After taking his game to another level the past two seasons, Giannis has somehow taken his game to yet another level, channeling the energy of his mentor Kobe in his basketball ability. Kobe challenged Giannis to win the MVP last year, which he followed through on in dominant fashion. How would he follow it up this year? How about a career-high 30 points per game along with 12.9 rebounds and 5.6 assists? Those raw numbers have not been matched since 1966, per Sports Illustrated. Giannis is also putting up a career mark from 3-point range, making 1.6 of 5.0 attempts per game (32.1%). No, that doesn't rank near the top of the league, but it's at least serviceable and makes his inside driving and post-scoring ability all-the-more dangerous. Defensively, he continues to be a menace, averaging more than a steal and a block per game for the 5th straight season and leads the league in defensive field goal percentage allowed (minimum 25 minutes per game and 5 games played). Giannis leads the NBA in win shares per 48 minutes by a staggering amount, and is only second to Harden in win shares overall - he only plays 30.7 minutes per game because of how dominant the Bucks are with him in the lineup (he leads the league in box plus/minus and in PER). Giannis is yet again a strong candidate for the MVP trophy as he leads the Bucks to the league's best record at 41-6, and is a clear lock as a starter in the East.

Pascal Siakam (frontcourt) - Man, I love me some Spiiiiicy P. It isn't just because I have him on literally all of my fantasy basketball teams, or just because he makes me feel less guilty for the Clippers taking Kawhi away from Canadian basketball fans. Both of those things certainly help, but I have been a fan of this guy's game for quite some time now. He epitomizes what hard work and determination can do for a young NBA player, as he has made his way from a relatively unknown entity coming out of Cameroon and New Mexico State to now the Eastern Conference's player of the week. He always had the defensive switchability and activity to justify my nickname for him, the Tasmanian Devil, but now he has added a versatile, deadly offensive game. Working with a career-high 29.3% usage rate (top-20 in the NBA), Siakam has become Toronto's best player on both ends of the floor. He is taking a career-high 6.1 3-point attempts per-game (previous high was 2.7 last year) and is still making 36.8% of them. He is also putting up career-highs in points (23.8), rebounds (7.7), and assists (3.4) - yeah, I'd call those numbers fairly spicy. The Raptors offensive rating jumps a ton with him in the game, and Siakam's net rating also ranks 16th in the NBA (minimum 25 minutes per game). There isn't a lot to dislike about this 25-year-old's game, and he has developed into the perfect two-way forward for the Raptors to build around in the future. Spicy P's first all-star start, and nod, for that matter, is well-deserved.

Joel Embiid (frontcourt) - Yeah, so Embiid has only played in 32 of the 76ers' 48 games - that's not a stellar mark. But The Process is clearly the best center in the East right now and he shouldn't be knocked so much for missing those games when he has been so damn good when he has played. Embiid is averaging 23.2 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game, and is quietly knocking down the best clip of 3-pointers he has hit since his rookie season (32.2%). You can make the case Simmons has been the more important 76er this year, starting every game for the team and producing some impressive numbers of his own (more on him later), but there should be a starting center in the East and none has a more impressive resume than Embiid on both ends of the floor. Embiid finds himself inside the top ten in PER, and is also an outstanding rebounder with a 21.9% rate (behind only Andre Drummond in the East). Despite a career-low in blocks per game, Embiid is second in the NBA in defensive rating behind only Giannis, and when The Process is in the game the Sixers' already deadly defensive unit becomes even more dominant. Embiid loses points in public perception and the media for his awkward fit next to Simmons, but he is the best traditional center in the league right now and if you stuck him in a time machine back to the 80s he would be elite. Some questions still reside about his long-term health and physical shape, but luckily for him those factors aren't important to the all-star game. Only raw ability and statistical acumen are, things Embiid has in spades.

Reserves:

Ben Simmons (backcourt) - Simmons has some of my favorite nicknames on Basketball-Reference I've ever seen, so I'm going to mix some in here. The Peacemaker ranks 3rd league-wide in defensive win shares, and 9th overall - his net rating is about 10 points per 100 possessions better than Young. Simmons is a star of the NBA's hustle stats - he ranks 4th in the league in deflections to go along with his league-leading 2.2 steals per game, and he also leads the NBA in loose balls recovered defensively. The Fresh Prince creates a ton of turnovers defensively, and with how gifted he is as a downcourt passer, creator, and finisher in transition, he is an absolute havoc wreaker on the fast break. Big Ben has started every game for the 76ers this season as they have worked their way to a 30-17 record, good for the 6th seed in the East. The Wizard of Oz's (my personal favorite) raw numbers are solid - 16.3 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 8.4 assists - but they don't tell the whole story of how impactful his two-way play has been this season, particularly as Joel Embiid has missed 14 games. You can't talk about Simmons without bringing up his nonexistent 3-point shot and paltry free-throw rate, but no player has assisted on more 3-pointers this year and he is undeniably important to the 76ers' team success. No guard in the East has close to as impressive a defensive profile as Benny this season, and while he just missed the cut as an all-star starter, he definitely earns a reserve spot.

Domantas Sabonis (frontcourt) - Domas came remarkably close to a starting spot on the all-star roster for me, which sounds ridiculous until you really look at his stats. He is averaging career-highs across the board with 18 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 4.6 assists, and is a throwback big-man in a league that doesn't totally embrace his style of play. Sabo plays with shades of his dad Ardyvas's elite game, and has been a monster on both ends of the floor this season for an Indiana team that has desperately needed him to make an impact. The fact that the Pacers are 31-17 despite Victor Oladipo only just making his debut is a testament to Nate McMillan's coaching, but also Sabonis's ability to step up as the team's best player (no discredit to Malcolm Brogdon) for most of this season. Sabonis is the perfect player in the pick-and-roll game (ranking 2nd in screen assists), and his passing is an incredibly underrated aspect of his game. He is finding ways to become more compatible with Myles Turner in the starting lineup (he has started 45 games for the team this year after starting only 5 all of last season) and is a dark-horse candidate for Most Improved Player. He's also a better rim protector than his 0.6 blocks per game would suggest, but he has contributed most where his team has most needed him this season - as a multi-level offensive threat.

Bam Adebayo (frontcourt) - I have to admit, I almost left Bam off this list. Then I checked his raw numbers just to be sure, and man oh man is he making an impact on the Heat this season. The eye test supports that theory by itself, but the raw numbers are far better than I expected - 16 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game, along with over 1 block and 1 steal. Bam ranks 11th in the NBA in win shares this season and 14th in box plus/minus. He is making other NBA general managers look silly for letting him fall to the 14th pick in the draft a few years ago, and is absolutely flourishing as a two-way threat in Erik Spoelstra's system. Bam put up a triple-double on Monday against the Orlando Magic with 20 points, 20 rebounds, and 10 assists, and has only seemed to get better as the season has gone on. The two-man combo of Butler and Bam has been deadly this season, ranking inside the top 10 in net rating, assist percentage, and true shooting percentage. Bam also ranks 4th in the NBA in screen assists per game. Bam is another candidate for Most Improved Player, and has some of my favorite nicknames on Basketball-Reference - Bam and Bam Bam. The Heat have developed an entirely new team identity this season, and the 6'9" Bam proving a more-than-capable starting center has been the key. He is a menace defensively, providing several highlight-reel blocks this season, and is a monster for opposing coaches to game-plan for night after night. His Heat are also rolling at 32-15 with the 3rd seed in the East. Bam and Domas have pretty comparable statistical resumes for the all-star game this year - with Sabonis slightly better on offense and Adebayo slightly better on defense. Both deserve to make their first all-star game.

Khris Middleton (frontcourt) - The 41-6 Bucks need two all-stars. Eric Bledsoe makes a compelling case, and will likely make the All-NBA defensive team again. Brook Lopez has also been a monster on both ends of the floor, but with Bam and Domas already in this spot goes to Middleton, a more-than-capable two-way wing. Middleton's shooting splits are extraordinary this year - 50.3%/46.3%/90% - and he is scoring a career-high 20.2 points per game. His 25.2 points per-36 minutes would smash his previous career mark of 21.2, but he has only picked up 28.2 minutes per game. Middleton is also coming off his best game in his NBA career - a 51-point, 10-rebound, 6-assist masterpiece against the Washington Wizards on Tuesday night. He became the first player in NBA history to score 50+ points while shooting 70% from 3 and 100% from the free-throw line. Not bad for the former second-round pick. Middleton has even been great without Giannis in the game - he is averaging 31 points and 6 assists per 36 minutes without Antetokounmpo, and the Bucks have outscored opposing teams by 12 points per 100 possessions in those minutes (courtesy of Zach Lowe, ESPN). The Bucks have been by far the league's best team this season, and it's easy to credit it all to the incredible campaign Giannis is putting together. Middleton has been incredibly impactful though, ranking 20th in the league in PER, and deserves a lot more credit for the absurd offensive numbers he is putting together. This team should be due for a deeper playoff run with another year in Mike Budenholzer's system, and Middleton makes them an even better two-way threat with his +14.6 net rating, which is good for third in the NBA (Bucks have a league-leading +12.2 net rating).

Trae Young (backcourt) - There are some factors, some outside of Young's control and others not, that kept him out of the starting lineup for me - but there is no debating the fact that he absolutely has to have one of the 7 reserve spots. Setting aside the defensive drawbacks of having Trae on the floor, he is putting up some amazing offensive numbers this season. Only 3 players have a better offensive rating per FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR analysis - Luka, Dame, and Harden. It doesn't take long to figure out why, as Young is averaging 29.2 points and 9.0 assists per game this year. Anyone who questioned whether his offensive skillset would fully translate to the NBA (including myself) is looking absolutely silly so far this year. His shooting isn't great at 44.7% from the field and 37.1% from 3, but a lot of that has to do with how much of the offensive load he shoulders when he is on the floor - he is 4th in the NBA in usage rate. The Hawks' drop-off inn offensive rating with Trae off the floor is staggering - they drop from a middle-of-the-pack unit to one of the worst I have ever seen. The advanced numbers, particularly on the defensive end, are not kind to Young, but his offensive game is rapidly evolving even on a roster devoid of consistent secondary firepower. He is an otherworldly passer at times, putting the ball on a string and frustrating any and all opposing defenders. Trae is even grabbing 4.6 rebounds per game, which is really impressive for a player of his size. So while the Hawks have the second-worst record in basketball and play like a putrid squad even with Trae in the game, this Oklahoma product is putting up enough raw production to lock in a spot on the all-star roster.

Bradley Beal (wild card) - Call it recency bias, but Beal's 41 point-per-game week leading into the all-star game makes him impossible to ignore. Yes, the Wizards suck. And yes, Beal's advanced defensive metrics (including the second-worst defensive rating in the league) are extremely, extremely poor. Frankly, though, I haven't changed my stance on Beal being a solid defender and I believe that picking up a majority of minutes next to one or more of Isaiah Thomas, Ish Smith, and Rui Hachimura will destroy almost anyone's advanced defensive metrics. Beal's 31.8% from 3 is not up to his standards, but that's partly due to a brutal stretch during December, and his true shooting % still ranks ahead of guys like Donovan Mitchell, Tobias Harris, and Zach LaVine. Beal's raw numbers of 28.2 points (6th in the NBA), 6.3 assists (21st in the NBA), and 4.4 rebounds are very good, and although his shooting hasn't been there, Beal still ranks 17th in the NBA in PER. He also has 3.1 win shares, which is not very good in and of itself but is pretty impressive when you consider the awful Wizards team he plays on. I wouldn't be shocked if Beal doesn't make the cut, but after being an All-NBA guy last season I don't believe he has fallen off so far so as to not even be an all-star reserve.

Kyle Lowry (wild card) - Lowry and Beal will probably both not make it. In reality, Lowry will probably snag one of these spots and the other will go to one of Tatum or Brown. But for my picks, I felt like the Celtics wings hamstrung each other too much and it didn't feel right to leave Lowry or Beal off, both of whom are having arguably very good seasons and have been all-star starters in the past. Lowry's shooting has been down a bit this year, but he has been asked to do more offensively with Kawhi Leonard moving on to the Clippers. Lowry's raw numbers are impressive - 19.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 7.4 assists per game on a 41%/34.4%/85.9% shooting split, and he ranks inside the top 30 in win shares with considerably more than fellow teammate Siakam. Lowry is hitting his best scoring mark since the 2016-17 season, and he impacts the game in so many more ways than show up on the stat sheet as the leader of this team on both ends of the floor. He directs traffic offensively to great success and helps a team that is relying on a number of younger players execute Nick Nurse's defensive schemes. The Raptors rank 2nd in defensive rating, much of which can be attributed to Lowry's veteran presence on the team. Toronto is on an 8 game winning streak, holds the 2nd seed in the East, and seems to have not missed a beat despite losing reigning Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard over the offseason. Yes, the transformation of Spicy P into a go-to threat offensively has worked wonders for this team, but Kyle Lowry has to be given a ton of credit as well in his age-32 season.

Honorable mentions: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Tobias Harris, Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine, Fred VanVleet,