An Inside Look at the Analytics-Driven Evolution of the Houston Rockets
By: Wayne
Somewhere in downtown Houston, Rockets' general manager Daryl Morey kicks back in his office sipping on his 4th Diet Mountain Dew of the day. Morey scrolls through Twitter on his iPhone, checking the latest criticisms and snarky comments from NBA pundits about the bizarre roster he has assembled. No player currently on the Rockets who receives significant playing time measures taller than 6'7", and it's rubbed plenty of people the wrong way over the past few weeks. This super-small-ball approach is something this analytics-crazed front office has been building towards for the past several seasons. But how did we get here, really? And is this an approach that is really sustainable for this team? To better understand all that, let's travel back in time to the arrival of Houston's superstar.
In 2012, James Harden arrived in Houston in one of the most lopsided and oft-discussed NBA trades in the modern era. Oklahoma City, in an effort to clear cap space and avoid the luxury tax, shipped off their sixth man scoring guard - little did they know he would later turn into a league MVP. It didn't take long for Harden to ingratiate himself on his new team - he started 78 games in his first season in Houston, averaging a career-high 25.9 points per game. Harden has scored more 25 points per game in each season since, starting every game he has played in a Rockets jersey. In the 2017-18 season, Harden reached another level, bumping his scoring to 30.4 points per game and winning the prestigious MVP award. The following year, he put up 36.1 points per game - the most since Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain.
It's been clear since Harden's arrival that Morey had acquired the star he has always coveted. Harden is one of the best offensive players in the modern era. And yet, the Rockets have not reached the level of playoff success they would have hoped - they have compiled a 6-7 playoff record since 2012 and have had their season ended at the hands of the Warriors 4 separate times. The championship-or-bust mindset for this franchise has not been a secret, and the roster has undergone several changes since Harden's arrival.
In the 2012-13 season, the Rockets led the NBA in pace with a mark that would place them near dead last in the league this season. That tells you more about how the NBA has changed in the past decade than anything else. A couple of first-round playoff exits led Morey to the realization that his team needed another star - in comes Dwight Howard. In 2014-15, the Rockets ranked second in pace - something that is inconceivable for a team starting two traditional-ish big men in Howard and Terence Jones just 5 years later. The Rockets had championship aspirations that season, and they had found the start of their current identity, leading the NBA in 3-point attempts for the second-straight season. The arrival of the Warriors' juggernaut forced them to reconsider some things, though, as they fell in a gentlemen's sweep to Golden State in the conference finals.
The following season saw them fall in the first round to the same Warriors' team, so in 2016 it was clear it was time for a change. Dwight Howard was shipped out to clear the way for the younger Clint Capela to start, and the team went for an even more guard-oriented offense focused on Harden, Lou Williams, Eric Gordon, and Patrick Beverly. Still, the Rockets couldn't make it over the hump as they disintegrated in the conference semi-finals against the Spurs. That series is infamous for the Rockets' horrific Game 6 display in which Harden went 2-11 from the field and they lost by 39 at home. Not a typo.
So, yet again, it was time to reposition the team's assets and gun for another star to add to the roster. Chris Paul fit the bill as an elite veteran point guard who was set to leave the Clippers. CP3 could provide shooting, passing, and defense in the backcourt to take some pressure off of Harden's shoulders. The two guards were supplemented with shooting and perimeter defense in the form of Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Gerald Green, Luc Mbah a Moute, and P.J. Tucker, playing a 4-out 1-in style around Clint Capela. The Rockets led the NBA in 3-point attempts by far that season, with almost 7 more than the next-highest team. They looked to have a real shot to upset the Warriors in the conference finals that year with the series pushing 7 games, but an injury to Chris Paul and a combined 6-25 from 3 for Harden in Games 6 and 7 (24%) saw the Warriors storm back from down 3-2 to take the series and head to the Finals.
The Rockets would enter the next season with the same roster, hopeful for a chance at revenge against the defending champion Warriors, but would fall short again against their arch-nemesis in the conference semi-finals, despite Kevin Durant being injured during the series. It was around this time that questions surrounding Capela's long-term fit with the team started to pick up. Capela had a negative net rating for the series, and the Rockets were better without their starting center on the floor. What this meant, in the long run, was unclear at the time, especially since the Warriors were such a unique opponent who forced you to play small and fast.
It's unclear which of the events that transpired served as the final straw in the Rockets' decision to move on from Chris Paul - his decline in play as he turned 34, his bloated contract paying him $44m in his age-37 season, and constant rumors of tension between Harden and Paul all played a role. Morey wouldn't be happy without a star in return though - the new Robin to James Harden's Batman. So they traded Chris Paul and some draft compensation to the Oklahoma City Thunder in return for Russell Westbrook, Harden's former teammate. The NBA world erupted in a fervor - how could the most analytically-driven team in the league fall in love with one of the least efficient players in basketball?
For the first few months of the season, fans who were critical of the Rockets' Westbrook acquisition had all the ammo they needed. The guard was 34-147 from 3 during the 2019 portion of this season - 23.13% - which is just awful. Westbrook's usage rate was only going up as the season went on, which was turning the Rockets into one of the least efficient teams in basketball - they rank 19th in 3-point percentage despite leading the NBA in attempts. Inserting a player with Russ's aggression, poor shot selection, and terrible 3-point shooting into the Rockets' trigger-happy system was a recipe for disaster. Westbrook's raw numbers were impressive, earning him an all-star nod, but whether or not he was helping the Rockets win games or just taking the ball out of Harden's hands was very much up in the air.
Around the start of the NBA season, Daryl Morey came under fire for a Tweet in clear support of protesters in Hong Kong. This sent China, probably the NBA's biggest international market, into an absolute craze. Rockets merchandise was removed from stores, Chinese TV channels blacked out NBA games, and NBA sponsors pulled out in China. Adam Silver estimated that this cost the NBA about $400m. Despite Silver outright refusing any claims from Chinese officials that Morey should be fired, his long-term job security has still been in question with the Rockets transitioning to new ownership. Different people will tell you different things about how hot Morey's seat is, but there is a certain sense of urgency surrounding this team - there is a clear championship window open this season with the Warriors falling off the map, and the Rockets have to take advantage. So in true Morey fashion, he eschewed all traditional NBA norms and went balls to the wall. He traded away Clint Capela in a deal that cost the Rockets pretty much all of their future assets to bring in Robert Covington.
Covington was brought in to increase the Rockets' 3-point accuracy and defensive ability on the perimeter. What has shocked people is how valuable he has been in some traditional big man roles, averaging 8.4 rebounds and 2.5 blocks since joining the team. P.J. Tucker has been fully unleashed by the removal of Clint Capela from the lineup - he brings intensity and determination to every defensive position and deserves real consideration for an all-NBA defensive team. Tucker and Covington are pictured together here - the duo has compiled one of the league's best defensive ratings for 2-player lineups since they joined forces, despite neither being a particularly tall player and being tasked with guarding some of the league's best big men.
Defensively, this lineup change has allowed the Rockets to embrace the switchability they have always preached on their roster. Beyond P.J. Tucker's impressive versatility, every player on the court for Houston can defend multiple different positions and keep them afloat on that end of the floor. In their past 12 games, the Rockets rank 8th in defensive rating and are inside the top 6 for both steals and blocks per game. The Rockets also rank inside the top ten in opponents' field goal percentage allowed, despite a relatively tough schedule over that stretch.
The new lineup has been pretty successful on the offensive end of the floor as well. In their last 12 games, the Rockets have attempted a staggering 49.5 3-point attempts per game, which would crush their own record-breaking number of attempts per game from the past 3 seasons. Daryl Morey and the rest of the Houston staff see basketball as a giant math problem in which 3 is greater than 2. They have fully embraced this strategy over the past year, morphing into what they have become today. To their credit, it seems to be working. The team has picked up a 9-3 record in that span, second in the NBA behind the Lakers and Bucks (tied for first), including impressive wins over the Celtics (twice), Jazz, and Lakers. In that span, the Rockets are also 3rd in offensive rating and 4th in point differential.
Perhaps most monumental about the Rockets since this major lineup change is how Russell Westbrook has been completely unleashed. He is averaging 35 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 5.9 assists in his 7 games played since the Capela trade and he seems fully rejuvenated surrounded by running with the most spacing of his entire career. He has only attempted 17 3s in that span (2.4 per game), which has made him much more efficient than early in the season when he would frequently have games with 9, 10, 11 3-point attempts. The Rockets have almost turned Westbrook into their center, as he is able to drive into the paint and kick out to copious open shooters. Westbrook had already left his fingerprints all over this team as their pace made a massive leap from one of the slowest teams in the league last year to now one of the fastest. Russ gives the Rockets an element of unpredictability that they sorely needed, and he makes momentum-shifting plays with his offensive rebounds, transition sequences, and monster slam dunks. Westbrook has become the Rockets' center at times offensively as the 4 other starters space the floor and allow him to drive inside and get easy buckets at the rim. Some teams have responded by putting their center on him - most notably Rudy Gobert, who Westbrook exposed a few games ago. Opposing teams have not yet figured out how to defend this lineup, and Russ is a huge reason why.
For all the great things the Rockets have accomplished since making their lineup switch, they have seen some real problems as a result of going 6'7" and smaller. In their past 12 games, the Rockets have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game and 4th-most second-chance points. They also have allowed the 5th-most points in the paint over that span. Defensively, their lack of rim protection has presented some real problems. Their lack of rebounding has been exposed as well - they also rank 2nd-worst in offensive rebound percentage. Without a true big man on the roster, the Rockets have become increasingly reliant on making a high percentage of their shots as they can't rely on rebounding or interior defense to keep them in games.
On Monday night, the Rockets suffered their most embarrassing loss of the season - a 2-point defeat to the hapless New York Knicks. Houston attempted 56 3-pointers but only hit 36% of them - another game of high volume and low efficiency. The Rockets' gimmicky approach to their lineup might boost their upside long-term, but it also hurts their baseline game-to-game. If their 3-pointers aren't going in, they are going to have a difficult time finding other ways to win.
In the playoffs, the Rockets will find themselves playing against teams who have had time to prepare and gameplan for their unorthodox approach. Some teams may even be able to play their ultra-small-ball style at a higher level. The Clippers, for example, can run a lineup of Patrick Beverly, Lou Williams, Marcus Morris, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard - they could switch everything defensively, outrebound the Rockets, and beat them at their own game. We will get a taste of this on Thursday night as the Clippers take on the Rockets for the 4th and final time this season. Other teams can take advantage of their size and physicality - the Lakers could bully-ball their way past the Rockets over a 7 game series. Houston has no answer for the questions that Rudy Gobert and Nikola Jokic pose with their elite rebounding and physicality in the post, not to mention Jokic's passing. As fun as Houston has been to watch with this bizarre style of play, it isn't something I anticipate working in the playoffs, unless Harden goes on an all-time heater from 3-point land.
If the Rockets' strategy does work, it could have massive implications on the future of the NBA. It's a copycat league, and if Houston were to win a championship with no center it could put big men in a precarious position moving forward. The NBA is already far more of a finesse and athleticism league than it was 25 years ago during the days of Shaquille O'Neal, David Robinson, Hakeem Olajuwon, Karl Malone, Charles Barkley, and Shawn Kemp. If the Rockets prove this to be a viable strategy, other teams may attempt to follow suit and ship off their own big men in favor of pace and space. We already saw firsthand the declining value of big men in this NBA when Andre Drummond was shipped off for practically nothing but cap relief in return. Regardless of the outcome, the Rockets unprecedented approach to their lineup will give this postseason, which figures to be one of the best in recent memory, a whole new wrinkle that has to be watched closely. One thing is for sure - Daryl Morey will need a lot more Diet Mountain Dew before this season is over.
How do you think the Rockets will fare in the playoffs with this new lineup? Do you think James Harden and Russell Westbrook have a chance to get to the Finals for the first time in their career since they did it together in OKC in 2012? Let me know in the comments section, and be sure to follow me on social media for updates whenever I publish a new story. Got an idea for a topic to write about? Let me know in the comments.
