UCL Round of 16 Predictions

By: Wayne

Following my European soccer club rankings yesterday, the Champions League draw happened this morning. After the research I did on some of the best teams in the competition, I wanted to put out an article with my full predictions for the Round of 16. I'm going to include some gambling odds as well and talk about the best strategies for UCL. Round of 16 odds are via FanDuel.

Borrusia Dortmund (+210 to advance) vs Paris Saint Germain (-310 to advance):

My rankings: PSG - #2, Dortmund - #9

PSG is absolutely rolling in Ligue 1 right now, and their now 7-point lead should only continue to expand over the coming months. A great high school varsity team could probably finish top-three, but let's brush past that for now. A large cushion in domestic play could give PSG the opportunity to focus all of their efforts on the Champions League by the time these matches are played in February. Mbappe, Neymar, Icardi, and Di Maria have all been in excellent form, and this defense allowed just 2 goals so far in Champions League play. This is incredibly impressive especially having played Real Madrid twice in group play. Meanwhile, Dortmund has had a pretty balanced attack led by 11 goals from Sancho and 10 from Reus. Brandt should continue to come into form in the next few weeks, as well. The Dortmund defense has been uneven and has struggled against top sides - 4 goals in 2 games against Inter Milan, 4 to Bayern, and 3 to Barcelona. Dortmund is in the midst of an ultra-competitive Bundesliga season, sitting in 3rd place 4 points off 1st but just 6 points clear of 8th. Their constantly difficult domestic league play as compared to PSG's coasting through Ligue 1 could impact the teams' health and energy for these matches. PSG has only allowed 2 goals at home all season, and both came in the same game in which the team only started 3 or 4 starters. Dortmund is a fun team to root for, and they could surprise PSG in Germany with an early goal, but PSG's top-level talent should win out here.

My prediction: 2-1 BVB in Dortmund, 3-1 PSG in Paris = 4-3 PSG

 Real Madrid (+200) vs Manchester City (-290):

My rankings: Manchester City - #5, Real Madrid - #7

After I published my rankings yesterday, Real drew Valencia in a crucial match that could have put them top of the table in La Liga had they won. Still, they are now tied with Barcelona in points, just 2 goals back in goal differential. El Clasico is coming at the absolutely perfect time this week and should give us some real insight into how these teams fare against top opposition. Real's 4-3-1 road record suggests they may be vulnerable on the road, which is exactly where they will be this week as they travel to Camp Nou. In Real's biggest road test of the season, they fell completely flat, losing to PSG 3-0, despite PSG being without Neymar and Mbappe. Real's defensive form domestically has been outstanding, however. Sergio Ramos has been in excellent form, and Thibaut Cortouis is one of the better goalkeepers in the world with 16 goals allowed and 8 clean sheets in 18 matches. Manchester City has had a disappointing domestic season, sitting 14 points behind Liverpool in the first place, but they figured to be among the favorites for Champions League. City has scored 79 goals in 28 matches, and the attacking play has been among the best in the world this season. However, their defensive limitations have shown up in recent weeks and could limit their UCL chances. Luckily for them, however, they figure to have world-class center-back Aymeric Laporte back for these ties. Leroy Sane could make his long-awaited return against Real as well, which would give them even more attacking threat. For the purposes of my predictions, I am assuming both will be back. This is a brutal draw for both teams, as I really believed in both of their long-term chances. However, I really believe a level of battle-testedness is important in these matches, and is anyone more proven in the big spots than Real and Zidane? Sure, the Great Man is gone, but this team has elite talent at all three levels and Hazard, Bale, Modric, Kroos, James, Ramos and Benzema are all guys who have proven themselves in the biggest stages. This is probably the best coaching matchup of the Round of 16 featuring Pep vs Zidane, and it should be really fun to watch.

My prediction: 3-1 Real in Madrid, 2-2 in Manchester = 5-3 Real

Atalanta (+116) vs Valencia (-164)

My rankings: both unranked

Valencia won their Champions League group with a goal differential of +2, and Atalanta advanced in second in its group with a goal differential of -4. These teams being in over Ajax is a tragedy, but such is life in the world of the random draw. To be fair to Valencia, they did knock off Ajax in Amsterdam to win the group, but they lost 3-0 at home to Ajax as well. Valencia is a tough team to figure out this season. They sit at 8th in La Liga, but they have pulled together impressive results of late with draws against both Madrid teams and a win over Ajax to clinch the group. Atalanta has been the most high-octane team in the world arguably, with their 38 Serie A goals leading the Italian table, but their 25 goals against are 2nd-most. They appear to be the Jameis Winston of European soccer, and I'm absolutely here for it. Daniel Parejo has been brilliant with 7 goals and 4 assists in all competitions and Rodrigo has chipped in 4 goals and 8 assists, but Valencia lacks the top-level scoring to compete with Atalanta should this turn into a shootout. Atalanta has 6 players with 5 or more goals, led by Luis Muriel's 10 scores. Atalanta's group stage results don't look impressive, but credit 9 total goals allowed to Man City and Dinamo Zagreb in a two-game span. Valencia has the clear edge in midfield, but Atalanta is deadly on the counter-attack and if they are able to play in open space they will score goals. Valencia's 3-1-4 away record with 15 goals allowed is concerning, and I like Atalanta to find the net a few times at home and hold on away to advance.

My prediction: 3-1 Atalanta in Milan, 1-1 in Valencia = 4-2 Atalanta

Lyon (+340) vs Juventus (-550)

My rankings: Lyon unranked, Juventus - #3

I have this pegged as the most lopsided draw in the field. Lyon advanced in what ended up being a pretty underwhelming group. RB Leipzig grabbed the top spot to go along with their current lead in Bundesliga, and Lyon's 8 points beat Benfica and Zenit by just one. Frankly, those three teams would have been pretty interchangeable, and Memphis's 82nd-minute goal against RB Leipzig on Matchday 6 sent the game to a draw and just put Lyon through. Meanwhile, Juventus pretty much dominated a group with one team who is definitely better than Lyon - Atletico - and one more which has a compelling case - Bayer Leverkusen. Memphis has 14 goals for Lyon in all comps and Moussa Dembele has 10, but beyond those two, no one else has more than 3 goals. Memphis and Moussa have combined for 24 of Lyon's 37 goals this year. The scoring load is pretty unbalanced, and Juventus should be able to neutralize Lyon's top two attacking threats. Juve allowed only 4 goals in its 6 group stage matches. Lyon is an underwhelming 8th in Ligue 1 this year and beyond their win over Leipzig, their most impressive result of the season might be losing by only 1 goal to PSG early in the campaign. Working in Lyon's favor is Anthony Lopes's excellent season in net with 25 goals allowed in 24 games and 6 clean sheets. But this team is absolutely overmatched against Juventus's attacking quality. Juve will throw out a motivated Cristiano Ronaldo backed by top talent in Paulo Dybala, Gonzalo Higuain, and Miralem Pjanic. The Old Lady can score in a variety of ways and has a ton of defensive depth to utilize against Lyon's somewhat limited attack. This should be a pretty easy victory for Juve, even with the first game in France.

My prediction: 3-1 Juve in Lyon, 4-0 Juve in Turin = 7-1 Juve

Atletico Madrid (+210) vs Liverpool (-310)

My rankings: Atleti - #10, Liverpool - #1

In my rankings, I wrote about Atleti having perhaps the best defense in the world at the moment. I wanted them to take on an elite attacking side so we could see how their defense would fare against top scoring talent. Well, we're gonna get to see that in spades. Liverpool has scored 65 goals in 27 competitions this season. Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane each have 13 goals in all competitions. Firmino's goal-scoring has been a bit down, but he leads the team in assists with 8. Mane and Trent Alexander-Arnold follow closely behind with 7. Liverpool has lost exactly two games this season - their first of the season in the Community Shield match against Man City, and at Napoli in the group stage of UCL. Atletico will provide the stiffest defensive test Liverpool has faced all season, with Oblak's 15 goals allowed in 23 games making him the clear best goalkeeper in the world. He has 9 clean sheets in that span. Unfortunately for Atleti, however, they have only scored 35 goals in their 27 games. Alvaro Morata has 8, Joao Felix has 4, and nobody else has more than 2. Atleti are an incredibly disciplined team and can defend from any point on the pitch with their strength in midfield. Liverpool might be surprised the first time they play Atleti, as nobody else they have played this season provides quite the same challenge. But in Liverpool, it's hard to bet against Liverpool's dominant home record this season with 9 wins in 9 games.

My prediction: 1-1 in Madrid, 2-0 Liverpool in Liverpool = 3-1 Liverpool

Chelsea (+270) vs Bayern Munich (-430)

My rankings: Bayern Munich - #6, Chelsea - unranked

People will peg an upset here for Chelsea, remembering caretaker manager Roberto Di Matteo's side and its shocking upset at the Allianz Arena in 2012. Some will point to Bayern's disappointing domestic season - they sit at 5th place, 6 points behind RB Leipzig in first. But this is the most competitive the Bundesliga has been the most competitive it's been in a while, and Bayern only has one fewer goal scored than RB Leipzig. Their +20 goal differential ranks second in Bundesliga. The midseason coaching switch to Hans-Dieter Flick was a rocky transition, but Flick has been a player and coach in German club soccer since he started his youth career for BSC Muckenloch in 1971. Flick worked under Joachim Low, a revered coaching great, as the assistant coach for the German national team for 8 seasons. David Alaba recently said in a presser that the players love him, and this team has the talent to make a legitimate run in the tournament if the tactics are sound. Bayern dominated in the group stages with 6 wins in 6 matches and a +19 goal differential. Chelsea, meanwhile, finished second in their group with a 3-2-1 record and +2 goal differential. I just tried to find Chelsea's signature win of the season and came away with pretty much just a 5-2 victory over Wolves. Chelsea lost to Man Utd by a 6-1 total in two games, and they are coming off losses to the number 14, 15, and 16 teams in the Premier Leauge table - Westham, Bournemouth, and Everton. Chelsea's defensive effort has been pretty weak with 36 goals against in 24 games, and it doesn't bode well for them that Bayern boasts the leading goal scorer in the world this season in Robert Lewandowski (29). Flick is relatively inexperienced, but the early returns have not been worse than Lampard's at Chelsea, and I'm gonna side with the more talented team top to bottom.

My prediction: 2-2 in London, 3-1 Bayern in Munich = 5-3 Bayern

Tottenham (-126) vs RB Leipzig (-110)

My rankings: Tottenham - unranked, RB Leipzig - #8

Neither of these teams has won a UCL, at least since the reformat. Domestically, these teams' seasons have not been similar. Tottenham, after finishing a point off third-place Chelsea last season and somehow advancing to the Champions League final, had high hopes for this season. But an inconsistent start domestically led to the sacking of Mauricio Pochettino. And in came Jose Mourinho, who knows what it takes to win in European competition. He won a UEFA Cup with Porto in 2003, won the UCL with Inter Milan in 2010, and won the Europa League with Manchester United in 2017. Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min have combined for 11 UCL goals and 25 in all competitions. Dele Alli has regained his form under his new manager. It isn't clear whether or not Hugo Lloris will be back from injury for the Round of 16, but Gazzaniga has performed admirably in his place, allowing 21 goals in 16 starts and producing 4 clean sheets. For RB Leipzig, Timo Werner is quietly one of the best strikers in the world this season, with his 21 goals and 8 assists in 23 games. Michael Sabitzer has produced 11 goals and 6 assists, and Emil Forsberg has played great from midfield with 8 goals and 4 assists. Defensively, this team is pretty comparable to Tottenham. They have allowed a fair amount in with 27 goals in 24 total matches played, but top keeper Peter Gulasci has produced 5 clean sheets. This was one of the tougher matchups for me to predict, as these two teams are very similar in a lot of ways. These two games should be incredibly compelling to watch. Ultimately, I sided with Spurs because of Jose Mourinho's being the most decorated manager in the world and much more experienced than Julian Nagelsmann. I love RB Leipzig and what they have been able to accomplish this season, and wouldn't be shocked at all if they advance. But it's hard to bet against Jose Mourinho in European play, especially with a side that knows what it takes to get to the UCL final.

My prediction: 2-1 Tottenham in London, 2-1 RB in Leipzig, Tottenham advances on penalties 4-3

Napoli (+370) vs Barcelona (-650)

Barcelona must have been breathing a sigh of relief when they saw Real Madrid draw Man City and Atletico Madrid draw Liverpool. Their Spanish rivals will be agonizing over those matchups for the next several weeks, as they will be challenged in unique ways against those top-flight teams. Barca, meanwhile, draws a Napoli side that has been underwhelming this season. The Italian side did go undefeated in group play with 3 wins and 3 draws and did hold Liverpool to just one point from their two matchups. But Napoli currently ranks 8th in Serie A, 18 points behind first-place Inter Milan. They have the same number of wins as losses in domestic play (5) and have only scored 4 more goals than they have allowed. Recent losses to Parma and Bologna don't exactly inspire confidence in Napoli's ability to beat Barca. Milik and Mertens have each chipped in 9 goals for Napoli, but their 36 goals in 2 matches are decent, but it isn't enough considering they have allowed 25 goals in that span. Barcelona, meanwhile, have scored 52 goals and let in 24 this season. That's a +28 differential for Barca and +11 for Napoli. Messi is having an outstanding season with 14 goals and 9 assists, and Suarez is right behind him with 12 goals and 5 assists. Marc Andre Ter-Stegen is in solid form in goal. The team's defense hasn't been as phenomenal as they had hoped with 20 domestic goals allowed compared to 12 for Real and 10 for Atleti, but the defense should be good enough to neutralize Napoli's attack. Callejon and Insigne each have 5 assists, and they will test the Barca fullbacks, but Barca should be devastating on the break especially since they have the superior midfield. These should be among the more open, counter-attacking games of the Round of 16, and they should be really fun to watch. Can't really pick against Barca here though, especially with the chip on their shoulder after the way their last UCL campaign ended.

My prediction: 3-3 in Naples, 4-1 Barca in Barcelona = 7-4 Barca

Final prediction roundup:

PSG vs BVB: 2-1 BVB in Dortmund, 3-1 PSG in Paris = 4-3 PSG

Real vs City: 3-1 Real in Madrid, 2-2 in Manchester = 5-3 Real

Atalanta vs Valencia: 3-1 Atalanta in Milan, 1-1 in Valencia = 4-2 Atalanta

Lyon vs Juve: 3-1 Juve in Lyon, 4-0 Juve in Turin = 7-1 Juve

Atletico vs Liverpool: 1-1 in Madrid, 2-0 Liverpool in Liverpool = 3-1 Liverpool

Chelsea vs Bayern: 2-2 in London, 3-1 Bayern in Bayern = 5-3 Bayern

Tottenham vs RB Leipzig: 2-1 Tottenham in London, 2-1 RB in Leipzig, Tottenham advances in extra time on penalties 4-3

Napoli vs Barca: 3-3 in Naples, 4-2 Barca in Barcelona = 7-5 Barca

My final field of 8: PSG, Real, Atalanta, Juve, Liverpool, Bayern, Tottenham, Barca