Ranking Every Remaining Team's UCL Chances
By Schwartz
Unlike a normal season, we didn’t know that after the last UCL game we watched, we’d have to wait months to see it again. But, here we are, approaching August 2020, and UEFA is finally getting ready to wrap up what started up as (and we hope will finish as) a thrilling Champions League campaign. We haven’t seen European action since March, but other than PSG and Lyon, all of the teams have been on the pitch in their leagues, and even PSG got a tune-up performance in the Coupe de France final recently. So, here’s my preview of each team- what we can expect out of their next match and beyond, as well as an overview of the players who could define the rest of the tournament. I hope you’re all as excited as I am for some more UCL football - play the theme, let’s go!
1 - Bayern Munich
It’s hard to argue with the statement that Bayern are the best team in the world today from top to bottom. From (former) Ballon D’Or frontrunner Robert Lewandowski at striker to the legendary Manuel Neuer at the back, there are extremely few spots in Bayern’s XI that are not manned by a world-class talent. They have also shown their form since the COVID break much more consistently than any of the other major European clubs, as they have picked up where they left off without missing a beat en route to icing yet another Bundesliga title. Their impeccable, fluid teamwork deserves much of the credit for their continued success, and it will continue to make them a tough draw throughout this tournament, even with the altered format. They’ve won 15 consecutive games, dating back to February, so you can hardly say that they’re vulnerable even with the single-game ties. They have a comfortable 3-0 lead on Chelsea, so it’s more or less safe to say they’ll be moving on to the quarterfinal- but I imagine that they have their ambitions aimed somewhat higher than that. They are my pick to win the tournament
Player to Watch
The easy answer would be Lewandowski, arguably the best forward in the World these days, but let’s get a bit more interesting and talk about Alphonso Davies. The 19-year-old Canadian international has taken the Bundesliga by storm with blazing speed that has rarely ever been seen on the football field, let alone from a fullback. His shocking speed and skill have had an impact for Bayern on both ends of the pitch, as he has racked up 3 assists for Bayern in just 4 UCL appearances. Davies’ continued excellence will be vital going forward, as his presence is going to make the game very different from what Bayern’s opponents are used to.
2 - Juventus
Before their recent hiccups, Juve were beginning to once again look like the side that have been such a lock to earn the Serie A title each year for nearly a decade. Lately, however, their energy has been lacking, teamwork subpar, and the leadership of Maurizio Sarri has been called into question. Nevertheless, this is a team that I fully expect to pick themselves out of the dirt and play close to their best football during this European sprint to the finish. Finally and officially the Serie A champs, Juve have a weight lifted off of their shoulders that I suspect has been there since their failure to secure the Coppa Italia at the beginning of project restart. Their talented defense should round into form, and make it extremely challenging to score enough goals to knock them off in a one-game, winner-take-all format. And of course, who’s insane enough to bet against Cristiano Ronaldo in any win or go home European match? That’s just not what wise people do. They are currently down 1-0 to Lyon after a first leg that feels an eternity ago, but that is far from an insurmountable deficit - if anything, I believe that it will spark the sense of urgency that this club needs to pave their path to long-overdue European Glory.
Player to Watch
Similarly to the case with Bayern, it would be quite easy to say Ronaldo himself, but again, let’s take a look at a different star who rarely gets his due. Since the restart, Paulo Dybala has arguably been the most important contributor in Juve’s attack, even more than Ronaldo himself. His signature creativity and flash that earned him the nickname “La Joya” have been on display, and he has often injected life into a Juve attack that has been somewhat lethargic since the restart. Look for him to provide a spark for a team that inexplicably finds themselves down 1-0 to Lyon.
3 - Barcelona
There’s little to be said about this side that hasn’t already been said. They have one of the best starting XI’s in all of Europe, perhaps the best outside of Munich and Liverpool, outstanding substitutes, a strong keeper and arguably the best footballer to ever live. Still, it’s hard to have faith in this side - they appeared to have chemistry issues and faltered in almost every key match after the Coronavirus break en route to falling out of first place and losing La Liga to bitter rivals Real Madrid. They also gave an uninspiring performance in the first half of their current UCL tie against Napoli, although that was several months ago. Still, they have placed themselves in a precarious position where they should be strongly favored to advance, but no sort of guarantee. With Messi on your side, all things are possible, and this team is one that is talented enough to rally together and look like the best in the world at any moment - we just haven’t seen that from them. You could blame managerial woes, and you might not be wrong, but it all comes down to what the men on the pitch do, and Barca’s players have not been at their best when they’ve needed to be. I have them this high because it’s hard to call them underdogs in almost any matchup, but I feel like they lack the steadiness required in a one-game knockout format, where one lapse in form can end your run.
Player to Watch
Messi is obviously the player you want to watch anytime he’s on the pitch. However, the person I think might have the most ability to determine Barca’s fate is their world-class German keeper, Marc-André ter Stegen. When the Catalonian side have been at their best, their keeper has been a large part of that. Barcelona have a lot of strengths, but their back four are not quite on the same level as their extremely solid midfield and their lethal attack. Still, when he’s at his best, ter Stegen is able to nullify many of their shortcomings. Just look at the UCL tie vs. Liverpool last year- in the first leg, a 3-0 win for Barca, MATS was phenomenal, turning away an egregious amount of very solid Liverpool strikes, making the final score far more lopsided than the game ever actually was. But back at Anfield, little lapses from the keeper such as a failure to hold onto the ball, allowing a second effort, allowing a well-struck but poorly-placed shot to sneak into the net, and of course, turning his back on the corner kick-taker, caused another evenly-played game to turn into a second rout, but with the roles reversed. You can’t win if you’re getting constantly scored on, but when ter Stegen is at his best, it’s extremely rare that Barca concede all that many goals.
4 - Atalanta
Serie A and Europe’s biggest surprise of 2020 have been in absolutely disgusting form since the restart. Featuring a “double the offense, half the defense” approach, they have been the Italian version of Oregon Football’s point-a-minute offense that rocked college football in the early 2010s, making for some extremely entertaining matches. They should be able to take advantage of a rusty Paris team who haven’t seen serious action (depending on how you feel about the Coupe de France) since March, and are missing their best player - the one-game format really favors them. In fact, so does the draw, since the winner of this matchup is extremely likely to make it all the way to the UCL final. This game will likely be a scoring fest, and that is not the type of game where you bet against these guys, especially when the best attacker for the other team is going to unfortunately be on the bench. Beyond the Paris game, I still love the benefits of the one-game format for this club, since they are a threat to unleash three goals in the first 20 minutes of any game and put it out of reach for their opponent. They could lose their first game, or go all the way- every single outcome is on the table for Atalanta.
Player to watch
Luis Muriel is one of the most shocking X-Factors I’ve ever seen, scoring a goal in every 68 minutes (!!!) of gameplay in Serie A this season. He has done all of this largely off of the bench, as he has played a full 90 minutes just once for Atalanta in league play. The team’s attack overall is football’s closest thing to must-watch television, but the most exciting member of a talented group is the Super-Sub who is knocking in a goal almost 1.5 times per 90 minutes. His presence is going to be absolutely vital in the late minutes of the one-match, winner-take-all games we are going to see as the UCL wraps up- an added-time Muriel goal could be the difference between Atalanta sending their opponent home, or being eliminated themselves. We might see him display his late-game, heartbreaking abilities as soon as Atalanta’s fascinating first tie against Paris Saint-Germain.
5 - Paris Saint-germain
When the French champs are healthy, they have absolutely all the talent you could ever ask for. There’s a good chance that they would have been second in these rankings if France hadn’t been the only league to cancel the season - they won’t yet be in good enough form and got a deceptively tough draw in Atalanta. They were dealt yet another blow when they learned that Kylian Mbappé would miss their first UCL fixture. But if they can survive, we’ll have to assume their usual level of play has been maintained and they become a huge threat to win it all, especially with their soft draw for a potential semifinal. Also, if they make it through, there is at least some hope that Mbappé might be able to potentially appear as a sub in their next matchup, or the final if Paris make it that far. They have a strong chance to get through a potential semi-final vs. Leipzig/Atletico even without Mbappé, so all focus is on the Atalanta matchup.
Player to Watch
Absolutely everybody! Paris played their last UCL match way back in March, and while they looked fantastic then, about 5 months will have passed from that day to their clash with Atalanta. The quickness of Keylor Navas in the net, the reliability of the defense, the teamwork of the midfield and the killer instinct of the attack will all be under heavy scrutiny after such a long break. But if I had to choose a single player who will determine Paris’s fate, I would have to pick Neymar. When he is healthy, as he appears to be right now, he can stake a legitimate claim to the title of best player in the world, as he displays the kind of talent that can take over and win games even if the rest of the team is not at their best. Neymar at full force is a sight to see, as he is the human embodiment of beautiful football, and we can only hope that his unique talents will be on full display in his first competitive opportunity in quite some time. I’d also like to give a shout to Mauro Icardi, who has really come into his own in his French home and played some great football- in Mbappé’s absence, he will need to be at his very best if Paris are going to survive and advance in the UCL.
6 - Real madrid
Los Blancos would be much higher on this list, maybe even second if they weren’t already losing and facing a trip to Manchester. They have been in really good health and form since the restart, and are riding high after claiming La Liga. The defense in particular have been extremely strong, delivering team points on numerous occasions when the attack has simply not scored as many goals as they should. That being said, Madrid’s forwards have also shown a penchant for finding the goals they need to survive and advance, even when they aren’t at their best. They’re just too far from a lock to even advance through this stage, but if they do, all bets are off- they could win the whole thing for the fourth time in five years (Note - Zidane is magic). One can only hope for a one-game, winner-take-all UCL El Clasico vs Barcelona, one of the most exciting potential matchups in this format. I believe that Madrid are one of the largest beneficiaries of the one-game format, since their staunch defense forces the opposition to really work hard for every goal, and a shutout is always a possibility in any one match, no matter the opponent. This is especially the case with Sergio Ramos on the pitch, one of the driving forces behind both Real’s La Liga push this year, where he served as the defensive rock as well as hitting many key penalties, and their recent European success. The man is a competitor above all else, as well as a great leader, and when the season is on the line, the smart money is never against his team.
player to watch
Similarly to Atalanta’s Muriel, but with much, much more big-game pedigree, Gareth Bale is a Super-Sub of the highest quality. Famous particularly for his substitute performance against Liverpool in the 2018 final of this competition, his ability to inject life into Madrid’s attack in the late stages of a match is going to be more vital than ever in this year’s format, since the ability to turn the tide in one game will be the difference between advancing and elimination. The way Madrid have played this year, I wouldn’t be shocked if Bale is called on to break open one or more 1-1 or even 0-0 defensive stalemates with his signature world-class speed and his penchant for stepping up in the biggest moments.
7 - Atletico Madrid
Other than Atalanta, Los Colchoneros are possibly the most dangerous sleeper team in this tournament. Simeone’s bunch have already stunned the defending champs, and as well as the strong defense his sides have always featured, the offense has roared to life in Atleti’s recent La Liga matches. Playing a depleted Leipzig squad, they are nearly a lock to reach the semifinals, but would still be absolutely massive underdogs in the last two matches. Still, the combination of great coaching, staunch defense, veteran leadership, young talent, and truly unfair goalkeeping performances out of Jan Oblak make Atleti a very tough out in any individual match, even for teams like Bayern or Juventus. There’s hardly a matchup (other than Leipzig) where I’d put my faith in Atletico to advance...but there’s also not one where I’d bet against them. They might not be the biggest name in the tournament, or feature the biggest star, but if you only get to watch one match each round, I would strongly consider watching Atletico Madrid.
player to watch
It’s not often that a goalkeeper can be considered an exciting television athlete. You see it every once in a while- Tim Howard in the 2014 World Cup, Gigi Buffon in 2006, prime-years Manuel Neuer in both international and club events. But Jan Oblak has played his way into that category, as he routinely makes saves on shots that nobody could ever hope to be knocked away. For all of Atleti’s question marks and key performers, there is nothing that will dictate their ability to stay in this tournament more than whether or not Oblak continues to be an absolute wall at the back and turn away what appear to be sure goals. Atletico will rarely be the more talented team in any matchup, so they will need their goalkeeper to shift the balance and neutralize key threats if they want to continue to make a splash in this tournament.
8 - Manchester City
Pep Guardiola’s side are fortunate to have an edge on Real after the first leg, as the two teams’ form have relatively swapped since they last met. Even if they do hang on and knock off Madrid, it’s tough to pick this team to get by Bayern and then (probably) Juve or Barca. They have been one of the most inconsistent squads in Europe this year on a match-to-match basis, somehow losing 9 Premier League games, often to shocking opponents. For this reason, the one-game matchups seriously do not favor the Citizens, since they are candidates to crash and burn in any one game versus the likes of Norwich or Burnley, let alone Paris or Barcelona. When they’re on, they’re one of the best, and can have the ability to compete with anyone in Europe. City employ the world’s best midfielder (perhaps the best player even) and their combination of high-end talent and substitute depth is more or less unparalleled. However, the danger to lose any one game makes it extremely unlikely, in my eyes, that they run a three-game gauntlet of Europe’s most talented clubs. Besides, they have a proud history of losing the big European matches, and why would they want to sacrifice the club’s only tradition?
Player to Watch
You already all know to watch Kevin de Bruyne, who has arguably been the best player in the World this year. But the player whose performance will be most key for City will be the replacement for Sergio Aguero, who has been the beneficiary of so many of Kevin’s lovely through-balls throughout the years - Gabriel Jesus. The Brazilian forward has been absolutely dreadful for City this year- don’t let his respectable goalscoring numbers fool you. In relief of Aguero, he has been one of the most wasteful shooters in all of Europe, squandering the most Big Chances of anyone in the Premier League. He also doesn’t bring the passing or leadership qualities of the Argentine legend, and could really hold City back by failing to convert the types of opportunities you need if you’re going to beat great teams - the types that would be no-doubters with Aguero on the pitch. He has more than enough talent to do what needs to be done, but has shown that it is far from a guarantee that he will step up when he is needed. All eyes should be on the position that has been so steady at the Ethiad for so long, but is now one of the squad’s biggest questions.
9 - RB Leipzig
Leipzig are really quite a good side. They’ve been competitive in a surprisingly deep Bundesliga this season, and have done well in winning a quietly competitive UCL group and then resoundingly dispatching Tottenham in their round of 16 matchup. Unfortunately, the road likely ends here for the German side. Timo Werner, the driving force behind much of Leipzig’s success during this campaign, will not be participating in this match. They still should not be ruled out, however, as they still have one of Germany’s toughest defenses, as well as midfield maestro Marcel Sabitzer, who has enjoyed a very strong season behind Werner. It’s hard to imagine Leipzig making much noise in this tournament, but a relatively friendly draw against an Atletico side, whose attack could very plausibly be dumbfounded in one game against Leipzig’s defense, means that it’s far from impossible
player to watch
Without Werner in the fold, Sabitzer is going to be the absolute apex of the Leipzig attack. The defense will play well, no reason to question that, but if Sabitzer is able to facilitate big chances against Atletico’s monster defense, or even score a goal or more himself, Leipzig will have a really good chance to pull off the shocker and advance to a semifinal where they should feel hopeful about their chances to upset either a defensively-challenged Atalanta or an injured PSG side.
10 - napoli
The biggest thing that Napoli must keep in mind is that they control their own fate. After an acceptable 1-1 draw against the Spanish juggernaut at home, they are now tasked with heading to Barcelona and either winning the game, or fighting for a non-scoreless draw. The away goals tiebreaker absolutely favors Napoli here, since it’s far from impossible to imagine that Napoli could sneak two goals past this Barca team and hang on for the win or draw. However, they have been in poor form in Serie A, and it’s hard to imagine them playing any better against a side of Barca’s caliber. An attack that we imagined would be lethal has really been more lethargic, as Napoli have somewhat disappointingly only scored the 6th-most goals in Serie A, sitting many goals behind the top attacks, and in danger of falling to 7th with the post-COVID resurgence of AC Milan. Their top scorer (Milik) has just 11 goals, a result of an attack that has been balanced almost to a fault, as no one or two players have really emerged as lethal focal points of the attack. They will need to find their direction, and find it soon, if they are going to be offensive enough to knock off Barcelona.
player to watch
Kalidou Koulibaly missed the first leg against Barca, and Napoli conceded a huge away goal despite the Spanish side not being at their best. One could imagine that their world-class centre-back was probably extremely frustrated at not having the opportunity to help his team keep a clean sheet. Look for him to be extremely motivated to do so in the second leg, as a shutout of Messi and co. would go an extremely long way toward seeing Napoli advance to the quarterfinal in what could be Koulibaly’s swansong run with the club. Speaking of which, he could do a lot to justify his already-high transfer value with a strong performance against Barca and beyond. Simply put, there is no Napoli player with more motivation to perform in this match than Koulibaly, and nobody who is more up to the task of knocking off a true European giant.
11 - Lyon
Lyon have had a very nice European run this year, and find themselves above last place in my rankings due to the fact that they have earned a 1-0 edge on Juventus while Chelsea currently trail Bayern 0-3 in their matchup. Still, I hardly see any hope for the French side to move on. It really doesn’t take a rocket scientist to recognize that an extremely highly motivated and well-rested Cristiano Ronaldo and Juventus squad are candidates to make quick work of a one-goal deficit against a lesser opponent. Lyon’s best hope is to try and knock in one goal and play for the draw, after Juve squandered their opportunity to score an away goal in the first half. This is hardly an impossible scenario, but I simply do not see Lyon mustering up the level of play that would be necessary to not only do that, but win three more enormous matches against European giants. Their Juve clash may well be more entertaining than many expect, but it should still be the end of the road for Lyon’s 2020 season.
Player to Watch
Moussa Dembélé has been a bright spot in what has shaped up to be a dismal Ligue 1 campaign for Lyon, scoring 16 goals in the competition. Along with Dutch international Memphis Depay, he represents the best opportunity for Lyon to steal the away goal they so desperately need to stay alive in this tournament. Watch for these two to play their best, most creative football in hopes of staving off elimination.
12 - Chelsea
Chelsea are an unfortunate 12th place, as they have played high-quality football as of late. However, London’s Blues are more or less disqualified from consideration for winning this event since they are already down 3-0 to the best team in the world after the first leg of their Round of 16 matchup, which took place many months ago. For Chelsea, this game is about getting minutes for their talented youngsters and gearing up what is sure to be a thrilling 2020-21 campaign in both England and Europe. No disrespect is intended towards what I think is an excellent side who have high hopes for next season and beyond- I’m simply ready to close the book on their UCL campaign considering the situation they’re in. But what do I know, maybe they’ll pull a Liverpool and make this prediction look awful, we’ll just have to wait and see what happens.
player to watch
Well, this was originally going to be a spot on Christian Pulisic, Chelsea’s high-flying American winger. But it doesn’t seem like he’ll be competing in this match, after a tough injury in the FA cup final, so we’ll have to go in a different direction. If Chelsea are to pull off a historic comeback, they will need absolute dominance for 90 minutes, and total control of the ball. This starts with the midfield, and the tone for Chelsea’s midfield this year has been set by Mateo Kovacic (apologies for neglecting the accents in Kovacic’s last name- they did not format properly into the text). Kovacic has been the engine behind much of Chelsea’s success this year, as he has arguably been their best player en route to a Champions League berth. He will be instrumental in keeping the pressure on Bayern, ensuring that Chelsea keep the ball out of their own half and have as many attempts on goal as possible.
The UCL returns to action on August 7 with Juventus vs. Lyon and Manchester City vs. Real Madrid