Series Spotlight: #1 Dodgers vs. #4 Padres in the NLDS
By: Schwartz
What just happened:
It seemed like the high-flying Padres were on the brink, after they dropped Game One of the Wild Card series, and then in Game Two, they were twice down by as much as four. But they fought back, by hitting the absolute hell out of the ball like they have all year, and then shut down the much more experienced Cardinals in Game three to punch their ticket to the Division Series. One of the more thrilling teams in these playoffs, the Padres are still riding the wave from their young team’s collective breakout season and now hope to take down the perennial owners of their NL West division.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers are the team that everyone expects to be here. Short season or not, they were prohibitive favorites to win the West, and the NL overall, and have lived up to that billing. Their dominant 43-17 record was the best in baseball, and they carried that mastery into the Wild Card series, where they knocked out the Brewers in a very uncompetitive two games, including perhaps Clayton Kershaw’s best postseason performance of the past few years. It’s World Series or bust in LA, as it has been for a few years now, and there’s plenty of reason to believe that this is the year it might just happen.
It’s youth versus experience, upstarts versus perennial contenders, and a team making their first run versus a team who you’d imagine would have to run out of chances at some point. This battle for West Coast superiority figures to be one of the best of the entire playoffs, and while there’s a definite favorite, the result could not be farther from a foregone conclusion.
What the Padres need to do
1- Get to Clayton Kershaw
Get to Clayton Kershaw. I’ll start this section out by saying that the Dodgers’ legendary left hander has been nothing short of fantastic this year. In what can only be described as a vintage performance, the 32-year old put up a 2.16 ERA and a 196 ERA+, the third-best of his career. He was also great in dominating the Brewers to help the Dodgers secure their Wild Card Series victory. All of that being said, his postseason struggles have gone beyond a fluke, or anything that can be described by a small sample size- he is simply a worse pitcher in the biggest moments. Kershaw’s ERA skyrockets the deeper you get into the playoffs. His career marks for each round are as follows: Wild Card, 0.00 (1 game). Division Series, 3.99 (14 games, 12 starts). Championship Series, 4.61 (13 games, 9 starts). World Series, 5.40 (5 games, 4 starts). The bottom line is that to get through good teams this postseason, the Dodgers, who lost a handful of starters to free agency and COVID opt-outs this year, are going to need to win because of Kershaw, not in spite of him. It’s the Padres’ job to make sure that they don’t, and keep Kershaw in his usual Postseason form. If he throws 8 innings in a game like he did against the Brewers, the Padres have to absolutely punish the decision, or they will have little to no chance of winning the series after falling into an 0-1 hole and leaving LA with a fresh bullpen.
2- Get Clevinger and Lamet healthy and throwing
Clevinger was very strong for both the Indians and the Padres, but hasn’t pitched since an arm injury he sustained shortly after his trade to San Diego. Getting him back for this series, for just one start or even a long-relief role, could really turn the tide for the Padres, as their rotation is less than consistent from top to bottom. Zach Davies has given the team solid innings all year, but former rookie phenom Chris Paddack has quite frankly looked like crap during most of the regular season and his outing against the Cardinals in the Wild Card round. Adding a steady arm in Clevinger would give the Padres some much-needed depth in their rotation, and prevent the team from leaning too heavily on a bullpen that is realistically just as uneven as their starting rotation. Lamet has also been fantastic this season, flirting with Cy Young contention due in large part to his extremely high strikeout rate and equally low opponent batting average. His health seems to be somewhat less of a question than Clevinger’s- he has been throwing this week- but after leaving his last regular season start almost two weeks ago, there is reason to be concerned about his condition. Having one, or preferably both of these starters in the fold would do wonders for the Padres’ odds. If both miss the entire series, however, it’s challenging to see to whom they’re going to turn to throw the quality innings that they’ll need to take down LA
3- Hit the damn ball- looking at you, Tatis
The NL MVP candidate was one of the breakout stars of this shortened season, and is a truly unique and thrilling talent to watch play the game. However, in 10 matchups with the Dodgers, he slashed just .205/.244/385- far below his season totals. While the drop was less dramatic, the team experienced more of the same, struggling against their neighbors to the north. The Padres have a solid array of arms (pending item #2 in this piece) but they aren’t about to pitch their way into a series win; they have to stay true to what they’ve been doing all season and hit the crap out of the ball. Long, quality at-bats from Tatis, Machado, and more will be key- ones like the plate appearances we saw in the last game and a half of the Padres’ series with the Cardinals. This team is as capable as any other of outscoring the Dodgers, but only if they aren’t stymied the way they have been in previous meetings, and they play up to their extremely high potential. Particularly, Tatis and co. will have to figure out how to maximize offense in their at-bats against Dodgers lefties, an area where the Padres’ relatively righty-heavy offense has inexplicably struggled this year.
What the Dodgers need to do
1- Don’t ask too much of the starters
If you’ve read even a single postseason preview article from ESPN, you already know that LA had the lowest team ERA in baseball this season. But with 18 quality starts, they had less than half such performances than the league leaders had (Cleveland, 37). Their total was tied with the Yankees, who had a very average team ERA (14th in baseball) and their opponents, the Padres, actually had more with 22. We also all know that LA has a dominant bullpen; how else would they lead the league in ERA without having quality starts? This is an asset that Dave Roberts cannot be afraid to leverage as much as he needs. Of course, if a starter is rolling like Kershaw was against the Brewers, it’s important to take advantage of that and protect the bullpen (a luxury that only runs can buy, but we’ll get to that).
2- Score more runs!
I know, this one is simple and obvious, but after a comfortable first-round win, it’s not being focused on enough. The Dodgers breezed by the Brewers in the first round because, well, the Brewers (29-31 record) were probably the worst team in MLB postseason history, courtesy of the expanded field. Still, LA only scored a total of seven runs in their two games against the Brew Crew, a shortcoming that was largely masked by a strong pitching performance but is concerning nonetheless. Now, you could say that the Brewers are a solid pitching team, and you would be right- but the Padres actually outpaced them in ERA and finished just behind them in strikeouts, so the two squads are pretty similar from a pitching perspective. Of course, the Dodgers got away with it, because the Brewers are a weaker offensive team. On the other hand, “Slam Diego” scored the 3rd-most runs this year, racked up the 4th-highest team OPS, hit the 4th-most homers, and struck out the 6th-least of all teams. Of course, the Dodgers were slightly better in all of those categories (1st, 2nd, 1st, 4th, respectively) so if they play up to their potential they will be fine. But another series where the offense is flummoxed by solid pitching performances won’t be acceptable, as the Padres will undoubtedly hit the ball well enough to bury the Dodgers. Increased offense would have an exponential effect, as the extra runs would take a ton of pressure off of a shaky starting rotation and a bullpen that will no doubt be worked to the wire. It’s also worth noting that while Kershaw’s postseason struggles have been well-documented, Walker Buehler does not have the same track record, but has not been his dominant self this year. His ERA sat above 4.00 for much of the season, and weirdly enough, he walked away with just a 1-0 record. The bottom line is that the Dodgers cannot be afraid to pull these guys out of the game if they begin to unravel; the Padres offense is unforgivingly explosive, and will put the game far out of reach if they get too much time against an overmatched arm.
3- Get the stars to settle in
I’ve already touched on a few of these guys, but some of the biggest names in LA have struggled to varying degrees this season. Kenley Jansen has been uneven, trending towards ineffective, towards the later parts of September, and he will need to be a rock in the 8th or 9th inning for the Dodgers to win the closer contests in this series. Cody Bellinger, the reigning NL MVP, decided for whatever reason that a pandemic shutdown following his best-ever season was an appropriate time to tweak his mechanics, and the results have been less than satisfactory. His swing appears longer, and he is having a tougher time catching up to some pitches on the inside; he’s simply not as tough of an out as you would hope him to be. At times, he’s also been somewhat less than an MVP in the playoffs, as he set the record for most strikeouts in a World Series last year. Max Muncy followed up two strong seasons by continuing to strike out a lot, but not get on base or put the ball out of the yard nearly as often. He began the year with a broken finger so he gets somewhat of a pass, but he is healthier now and seems to have simply slipped into a slump after letting a rough start to the season get to him mentally. I’ve already discussed Walker Buehler’s struggles, which have been exacerbated of late due to flare-ups of a blister on his pitching hand, but he too will need to be in near-top form in order to help lead the Dodgers back to the NLCS. Similarly to the Yankees, on paper, the Dodgers have all the star power they need to get them all the way through October- those stars just have to play as well as we’ve seen them play if that’s going to happen.
My Pick
Remember how I said the ALDS between the Yankees and the Rays was basically the ALCS? Well...I’m not going to say that again, since the Braves are a very talented and gritty squad, and the Marlins have some sort of evil voodoo magic that prevents them from losing playoff series- but this is as good of a matchup as you could ask for this early in the postseason. Like the AL series, this acts as a de facto division championship, between two teams that have looked to be among the best in the league at various points of this season. Like the Yankees, the Padres have a very fair gripe that their division is the only thing that prevented them from being a top seed- and this is their chance to prove that they deserved that privilege all along. They should give the Dodgers a serious run for their money, as has been the case in more than one series over the past decade when LA has faced a “maybe seeded lower than they should be” type of underdog. That being said, the Dodgers are on a serious mission, and if the Padres show the inexperience that they did against the Cardinals, they won’t be able to claw out of a hole again- the Dodgers are a deadly combination of talented and well-versed in postseason baseball, they are the kind of team that takes a mile if you give them an inch. My official projection is for this series to go to a decisive Game Five, where the Dodgers’ pitching depth shines and the Padres’ lack thereof proves to be disastrous in the later innings, as LA runs away with a convincing, series-clinching win. The Dodgers’ quest for a 21st-Century Championship continues, as Kershaw and friends head back to the NLCS for the fourth time in five years- 2015 is the last time they weren’t eliminated by the eventual World Champions, 2014 the last time they were knocked out by anyone other than the NL Pennant winners. This time, LA will seek to hold both of these titles themselves, after they finish on top in a thrilling California classic against the Padres and, in quite the familiar development, head off to the NLCS- and play in the first MLB games this year to be played in front of fans.