MLB 2020 Preview Part 2
awards predictions
by: Schwartz
Now that we’ve taken a dive into who’s playing where and what we can expect from each team, let’s look at the players who are going to define the 2020 season. The league is as full of talent as it’s been in the past decade or so, and every one of these award races- if we do, in fact, have individual awards- is going to be hotly contested. Let’s get into it.
Rookie of the Year: Al, Jo Adell (Anaheim), NL, Gavin Lux (Los Angeles)
There’s some high-level young talent in LA. Today’s league might be an East-centric one, but the future could likely be on the Golden Coast. My pick for American League Rookie of the Year is Jo Adell, the Angels outfielder who is poised to be an absolute force alongside Mike Trout for years to come. Anaheim’s preps-to-pros star is only 20 but since he was drafted as a teenager, he’s gained plenty of polish in the minors, tearing it up at all levels. If the Halos are going to take a big, playoff-sized jump this year, Adell is going to need to fly fast, and I think he can.
Detroit’s young pitcher Casey Mize is another strong contender to make a run at the award. My friend and old teammate has firsthand experience facing Mize’s 94-mile per hour splitter in the 2018 NCAA tournament, and can’t speak highly enough about the right hander from Auburn, who has reportedly only gained more MLB-level refinement in the minors, already having thrown a no-hitter in his AA debut. However, lingering injury concerns might delay Mize’s big league debut, so this year’s ROY might not be his.
In the NL, the Dodgers’ infielder Gavin Lux is my pick to take home the award, as he’s well positioned to have a big impact for a serious contender after a promising showing in his short MLB stint last year. We recently learned that Lux will be starting this season in the minors. Still, everything about LA’s infield situation and the high regard that the organization views him with would suggest that he’ll be a pro sooner rather than later, and will play a good amount of innings this year.
Carter Kieboom, a young Nationals infielder who homered in his pro debut last year, could also have a large role as the defending champs try and fill the hole in their lineup left by Rendon, but with the acquisition of Starlin Castro to man the middle infield, I’m not quite sure what Kieboom’s place will be. Still, Nats’ skipper Davey Martinez has shown every intention of playing Kieboom as much as possible, so it’s hard to count him out of this race. Lastly, Giants catcher Joey Bart looks to follow in the footsteps of San Fran legend Buster Posey, who opted out of the season, and take home the award after a strong season behind the dish. Bart is a compelling talent, and could see a lot of time on a struggling Giants team. There’s a lot of great young talent in the MLB, and it’s going to be extremely exciting to see who rises to the top fastest.
Manager of the year: AL, bob melvin (oakland), nl, luis rojas (New york)
Manager of the year is a tough award to predict, because it’s usually awarded to a manager who’s team had a surprise performance and those usually come as...well…a surprise. But even though many people could potentially see it coming, I see the A’s potential dethronement of the Astros in the AL West as cause to reward veteran manager Bob Melvin. The Astros are in turmoil, but it’s still going to take a great season and a strong leader to knock off a high-level juggernaut like the one in Houston that has ruled the West for the past few years. I think the A’s can have that season, and if they do, Melvin would be thoroughly deserving of his fourth MOY award, and the third of his Oakland tenure.
On the NL side, as much talent as they have, it would be extremely impressive for a brand new manager to get the Mets out of their recent funk, navigate an almost unrealistically challenging NL East, deal with inevitable injuries, already including the loss of Noah Syndergaard, and make it to the playoffs. As tough as this would be, that is exactly the season the Mets have a great chance to have, and their rookie manager Luis Rojas would have to take home the hardware if his team pulls it off. There’s a lot of great managers in baseball, but the likes of Dave Roberts and Dave Martinez would have to pull off some small miracles to be given the award, granted how successful their teams have already been. Back in the AL, one last contender that cannot be ignored is Joe Maddon. He’s an extremely accomplished skipper taking on a new challenge, and the results could be award-worthy.
Cy Young Award: Al, Gerrit Cole (New York), NL, Walker Buehler (Los Angeles)
Even though we’re in the home run age, there’s a stunning breadth of pitching talent in today’s MLB. That makes my job extremely hard as I try to pick out just one ace from each league to win the Cy Young award. In the senior circuit, I’ve been known to pick Max Scherzer no matter what, and that strategy generally turns out pretty well. I wouldn’t be surprised if everything I’m about to say is proven wrong and the legend in Washington wins the Cy again. However, I’m really afraid that Mad Max spent the last bit he had left in the tank to add a ring on top of his Cooperstown-worthy career, as he needed a cortisone shot to be able to throw in the Nats’ historic game-7 victory. A hero’s effort, to be sure, and the only right decision- but one that leaves him out of my prediction. Since I initially wrote this, he has thrown some exhibition innings, and unfortunately hasn’t looked like his usual, dominant self- but of course the regular season is very often quite different from spring training. I would be absolutely thrilled if he returns to his usual form to take home the award yet again and proves me wrong, but he is not my pick to win it.
That distinction goes to Walker Buehler, the kid from Kentucky who’s tearing it up on the west coast. Buehler has played second fiddle to Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu for the early stages of his career but as he’s matured, Ryu has gone east, and Kershaw’s prime is ending, that will not continue. Buehler has absolutely filthy stuff, as well as the polish and poise of a much older hurler, and will be a true ace for the Dodgers this year. It’s time for Walker to be the man in sunny LA, and he will be rewarded for his efforts with some hardware.
Of course, the Mets ace, and two-time defending Cy Young winner, Jacob DeGrom will be a factor for this award, as he always is. Scherzer and Buehler will both have teammates in the running; DC’s World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg will have a shot at the award, as will the ever-great Kershaw. The rising star in St. Louis, Jack Flaherty is primed to have a fantastic season, and will look to stake his claim as the most deserving candidate. It will be a real treat to see these aces and others duke it out for the distinction of best pitcher in the National League.
In the AL, we could be looking at a battle between former teammates. Last year, it was the Astros’ Justin Verlander taking home the award for the first time in years, edging out his teammate Gerrit Cole. However, Cole, who will be throwing in the Bronx this year, had the statistically better season, and was generally the arm the Astros trusted in their biggest games. Frustrated by the failure to capture his first ring, fueled by the excitement of playing for his favorite team, and not an older arm like JV, should be spinning gems all summer and fall, and this time, go home with the Cy Young Award. A Yankee today, tomorrow, and forever, Cole is going to rise to the occasion now that he finally gets to live his dream, and be the best pitcher in the AL for his favorite team.
Aside from his former Houston teammate, who is still very squarely in the mix, Cole will have to contend with an AL East foe who could be a serious challenger, as former Cy Young winner Blake Snell still throws for the Rays. It’s special to have this many amazing arms in the league at once- it’s even more exciting that we’ll certainly see some of them competing head to head at numerous points throughout the season, especially with the geographically-oriented schedule. It’s a real possibility that one or more of these guys in each league- or someone else- will finish the 60-game season undefeated, making for a truly unique Cy Young race.
MVP: Al, Aaron Judge (New York), NL, Christian Yelich (Milwaukee)
The biggest award is always the hardest to predict. There’s too many superstars in both leagues to give the MVP to just one, but that’s exactly what we have to do at the end of every season. Since we have to choose someone, I’d like to start my discussion of the biggest award with the biggest man- New York’s colossal right fielder, Aaron Judge. When #99 is on, it’s simply unlike anything that’s ever been seen in baseball history. His skillset is so complete and diverse that he’s equally able to turn on a high fastball and smash it nearly out of the whole ballpark, or sit back on an outside splitter and send a 120 mile per hour laser over the second baseman’s head. He’s also a serious defensive force as his rocket arm and 6’8”, homer-robbing frame have saved a big game for the Yanks on more than one occasion. The best player on the best team is always a strong contender for this award, and I think that is exactly what a healthy Aaron Judge would be.
But healthy has often been a big “if” for the Yankees superstar. He hasn’t played a full season since his historic rookie campaign, and even that season, he played through injuries, en route to a brutal slump. To make matters even more complicated, he came into Spring Training with upper body ailments that now seem to have stemmed from a partially-collapsed lung, and upon recovery from that, immediately tweaked his neck. The good news is, Judge has been participating in full practice activities at Yankee Stadium, including a live-action intrasquad scrimmage in which he took James Paxton deep, a matchup vs. the Mets in which he went yard twice, and another tune-up against the Phillies Monday night when, you guessed it, he also hit a long homer. The Yankees’ biggest star is absolutely ripping the cover off of the ball, and all questions about his health coming into the season can be put to bed. After the long offseason and plenty of time to get healthy for a short schedule, I believe that Judge can put together an extremely explosive 55 or so games and secure the MVP- the first half of his brilliant rookie season comes to mind.
But if he does fail to stay on the field, voters would have to turn to the most reliably brilliant star we’ve seen in recent memory, Mike Trout. It’s hard to say anything that hasn’t been said about the Angels outfielder’s brilliance, particularly since he’s already won this award 3 times and been the runner-up 4 additional times. He is the true five-tool player, exhibiting every sort of baseball skill you could hope for in all phases of the game, and consistently puts up the ridiculous numbers that you would hope for such a unique talent- he has now led the AL in OBP four years in a row, and in OPS+ a ridiculous five consecutive seasons. The Millville Meteor finally has a few teammates to support him, and that should only help both his team and individual success, creating a hell of a case for his fourth MVP- he is my runner-up pick for the Award.
While I see this as a two-horse race, essentially defined by Judge’s health, each of these mega-stars has a teammate or two in contention. The Angels’ SP/OF/DH/everything Shohei Ohtani, reigning World Champ Anthony Rendon, the baby bomber Gleyber Torres, a hard hitting middle infielder, and a finalist from last year, DJ LeMahieu all have a shot at the award. Gleyber is poised to slide over to Shortstop on a full-time basis with the departure of Didi Gregorius and is primed to build on an age-22 season where he hit nearly 40 home runs as one of the centerpieces of a fantastic team.
DJ of course is coming off a season where he was the one consistency in a Yankees team that overcame an inhuman amount of injuries, flashing power, hitting the ball for contact, and playing defense wherever he was needed. After a season of putting up ridiculous numbers in clutch situations, his last swing was one the Yanks thought might save their season- a game-tying ninth inning two run homer after an epic 11-pitch battle against Astros closer Roberto Osuna. Although LeMahieu tested positive for the Coronavirus, he played in a tune-up game against the Mets, so it seems that he will be ready to go by Opening Day- but stay tuned on his situation.
Ohtani has a really unique case, as he pitches and hits for the Halos. I see him as someone who will either be a shoo-in if he does both at around an all-star level, which he is capable of, or a guy who has no case if either one is lackluster or he’s unhealthy- he’s already had surgery on his throwing arm. If Shohei can hit about 10 homers and win 4+ games on the mound, he’s going to be hard to vote against, and with a shortened slate, he is less likely to be harmed by the wear and tear of both pitching and DHing.
Lastly, Rendon is one of the most complete players in baseball, as he is nearly flawless at the plate and a big plus at the hot corner. Not only was he an absolutely vital piece in the Nationals’ run to their first World Series title, but he finished third in MVP voting, only behind Bellinger and Yelich after a sensational regular season that saw him hit a career-high 34 homers and OPS over 1.000. It’s going to be hard to get past the narrative of being Trout’s sidekick, rather than the Angels’ top dog, but I wouldn’t say that it’s out of the question for Rendon to match or even outperform LA’s franchise guy- he’s certainly done what seemed impossible before. Separated by a whole country, but not at all by gaps in high-end talent, these Yankees and Angels stars are set to put on a show to remember for baseball fans across the country.
Finally, we come to the NL MVP. Last year, a thrilling race between LA’s Cody Bellinger and the then-reigning MVP Christian Yelich was heartbreakingly cut short when an injury ended Yelich’s season. This year, both “Yeli and Belli” figure to be at the forefront of the race again, although for the defending winner, in this case Bellinger, it’s hard to come away with the award for a second consecutive year. Yelich’s past season and a half or so, starting near the end of his 2018 MVP season and running up until his injury last year, have been otherworldly, leading or nearly leading the entire MLB in Home Runs, slugging, on base, hitting, and more over that stretch. A healthy Yelich is a unique force- not one anyone should bet against, and is my pick to win the NL MVP. However, since I have the Brewers on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs, he would need to put up some absolutely stunning numbers to win the award. Of course this has been done, as it is largely following in the mold of what Mike Trout has done in recent years, but trying to be Trout is a dangerous game. If the Brewers crash and burn while the Dodgers rock and roll, it wouldn’t be shocking if Bellinger gets the nod once again. Or, it could be someone from a playoff contender on the other coast…
...since some of the young talent in the NL East is equally hard to ignore. Atlanta’s Ronald Acuna (41 HR, 37 SB) flirted with a 40/40 season last year in just his age-21 season, and if he continues to rise at the rate he has been, he will be in the discussion for MVP not only this year, but for many to come. Washington’s answer to Harper’s departure, Juan Soto, has also put his stamp on the game through an unforgettable playoff performance, which nearly ended with a World Series MVP. Famously, if the series ended just 5 days earlier, he wouldn’t have been able to (legally) share the team’s celebratory champagne- he was just 20 up until then. With a championship behind him and absolutely everything on the table in front, there’s no reason to count Soto out of this year’s race, and a chance to bolster his already-growing resume with some hardware. The youth of the National League’s stars is staggering- of the four players mentioned in this segment, only Yelich (27) was older than 24 when the season ended last year. It’s good that these guys make for a pair of fun MVP races, because we might be watching this exact group of stars challenge each other for the award for years to come.